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Old 10-16-2015, 01:49 PM   #11376
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Holy freakin' shyt! An "Honest Injun!" [no disrespect meant to my Native Americans whom I love dearly. Sorry about that genocide them white trash descendents of mine inflicted upon you]
Time traveling pre-Founding Father ITT!

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So with very little real data to back this up, what percentage increase to a win rate do you speculate one could see if you were permitted to buy in for an amount equal to biggest stack at the table in live low stakes?
How good are you at playing deep? Few of us are great at it if recs, as we don't get a lot of practice at it, and it's an expensive skill to learn. Pros tend to have a big advantage deep over even very good recs due to experience.

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My usual casino 1/2 has a 300 buy in cap. Anyone know of casinos with higher 1/2 caps and\or where you can buy in up to largest stack at the table?
Yes, though not as many as it used to be. Uncapped games still exist (such as Golden Nugget in downtown Vegas) as do match the big stack (Harrah's NOLA), as well as a few $X or 2/3 of biggest stack , though I can't recall where I saw these of the top of my head.

Most rooms have learned that capped buy-ins keep the fish from going broke so fast and burning out the poker economy, though.
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Old 10-16-2015, 02:09 PM   #11377
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Sounds like we need a containment thread.
Lol
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Old 10-16-2015, 02:16 PM   #11378
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Well, that puts some at an unfair advantage. I play ~15 hours Mon-Thu & get $100 on Friday. I play about 25-30 hrs per week. If I avg that $100 into my winrate, that's an additional ~$4.00 per hour.

Now, if I come into this thread & say "Hey, my WR is $15 long-term so far, others can relate. But if I tack on the $4.00 & say $19........wtf?!
You just highlighted the inherited flaw of looking at short-term win rate.

Most players don't see that many of their sessions hinge on 1 or 2 big hands, and whether you win or lose those hands will result in +100bb or -200bb that session.

They also don't recognize the few times that a giant whale walks into the game and dumps thousands, and they see those results as part of their brag.

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Not all casinos give back $4 per hour in cash to the players and it took no skill on my part to get it. My $15 WR is based strictly on skill.
And not all casinos rake the same amount of money.

Most players also do not track their tips or expenses when they are at the poker table, and they fail to recognize the impact of those "little" things. If you routinely order food/drinks and tip $1 per hour, that is $1 off your WR. If you routinely tip more than your peer, that's another $x off your WR.

There are many ways to skew WR and nobody is really comparing apple to apple when posting WR in this thread.

At end of the day, you have to ask yourself, why are you tracking these stats?
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Old 10-16-2015, 02:26 PM   #11379
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bingo. ATsai's volume argument is kind of moot when you play part time (<1200 hrs/yearly), since you could potentially be running above or below expectation for three years. though i do notice that longer sessions converge on true wr (or whatever it looks as though true wr is)

GG, I'm 8.81/hr over 2237 (since March 2013). i'll check back in when robfarha does in 2018 (when we're all playing superstud/big-o) to see if i'm running above/below
FWIW, it isn't his argument as he's simply using his own words to quote someone else's recent post.

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the most money to be made is to be prepared to play any game. a crazy big-o game popped out of nowhere at HG for 3 weeks and a good friend of mine easily won 25k in that span, many other regs were afraid to play (game is still going sporadically i think). A joocy PLO game went at HP for a few months, some ******ed games are going tues and thurs at bike. a really good player (not the best) can still realistically make 150k+ playing mid/hi 5-10 (some 20) level but you need to work a little. just sitting at commerce 5-10nl and expecting 150k income isnt gonna happen anymore unless you are one of the top 2 or 3 players in that pool putting in full time+ hours nights and weekends. talking about hourly rates is sort of worthless because you can have a high hourly if you only work peak hours but your yearly will be low because you dont get in the hours. Friday and Saturday nights theres still $150/hr games at 5-10level for the best players. weekday days are prob at the $50/hr level.

In the current poker climate I think anyone can make more in the real world than they can from poker. poker shrunk faster than the overall economy and is recovering much slower (if at all). you need to love something about the poker lifestyle to cut off ties to the real world and do it full time because its a bad decision if youre doing it for the money.
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Old 10-16-2015, 06:42 PM   #11380
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This makes sense. If you hit and run often, you'll earn more than those putting their profits at risk.
IDK if this is a troll or not but its so obviously not true. unless you have massive leaks playing deep and can't handle the emotional swings and pressure then hitting and running is just not a good strategy. For one you play off your WR. you play more hours, you make more money, thats how its works. If you always cut your session short just because you are winning then you make play less hours and make less. Also when you are winning you are in a better state of mind and play better, not playing when you are playing your best is really just not smart. Finally there is some equity in the intimating factor of having a big stack, which really does effect how people see and play against you. Having a winning image matters.

Also nobody likes someone who hits and runs.
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Old 10-16-2015, 07:48 PM   #11381
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Irt to the dudes posting the super high wr / low volume.

They're happy. They're proud. They want to share. They want someone to pat them on the back tell them what a great job they've done.

There's nothing wrong with that.

Although some are probably for other reasons like trying to drum up coaching or w/e

---

If some of those guys actually believed their true wr is 20/bb hr don't you think they would slaying the live games 1800hr/yr instead of primarily trying to grind out small stakes online?

Let them post. It's nice to see where all my run good is going
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Old 10-16-2015, 08:00 PM   #11382
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Although some are probably for other reasons like trying to drum up coaching or w/e
You would be shocked at the amount of people I have turned down that have asked me for coaching.

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Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
If some of those guys actually believed their true wr is 20/bb hr don't you think they would slaying the live games 1800hr/yr instead of primarily trying to grind out small stakes online?

Let them post. It's nice to see where all my run good is going
I don't believe anyone's winrate (including my own), to be much over 12bb/hr in any sort of reasonable poker environment.

As far as people "primarily trying to grind out small stakes online", there's many other reasons for people wanting to do other things than spend 1800hr a year inside a miserable casino. So to answer that question, even if my winrate actually was 20bb/hr, no, I would not spend anywhere near 1800hr/yr inside a casino. The amount of people on 2+2 that don't understand such a basic concept absolutely baffles me.

Convenience/sanity/overall happiness being #1 on my personal list. Not everything is about maximizing every single penny you could possible make at the expense of yourself. There's a reason the angry people are angry and the happy people are happy. Don't get sucked into the poker bubble where your entire life revolves around poker.

Next time you walk into a poker room, stand up and look around. It's not a great sight.

edit: did not realize what a ****storm posting a couple of pictures would cause and haven't posted a winrate picture in several years, mostly for this exact reason. I apologize for my desire to be constantly pat on the back, or to have my ego stroked.

On variance and how it actually works - it's pretty damn unlikely (but Rob OMG not impossible I know this guy omg) to have a sample of 300hours where you win 10bb+ plus and to be a losing player. Even less likely if you can objectively be honest with yourself and not forget all the times you ran above EV, like when you win a pot with AA against AK all-in pre. (not a typo)

Last edited by RobFarha; 10-16-2015 at 08:07 PM.
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Old 10-16-2015, 08:35 PM   #11383
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^ people don't get why you wouldnt want to spend 1800 hours/year inside casinos because when you are doing well, no one is going to want to work more than they have to. When someone is speaking from the perspective of someone playing 1800 hours at say, 3bbs/hour and struggling to make living expenses, they obviously think you are crazy for not playing 1800 hours if you could make way more at 20bbs/hour for the same amount of work.

In other words, if your hourly has actually been 3bb/hour, and 1800 hours is what it takes to make your living expenses, how CAN you not be playing more? Kind of seems like a thinly veiled brag there and basically saying you don't understand why people making less has to work more, but you already know that.
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Old 10-16-2015, 08:36 PM   #11384
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If you were like 45 and unemployable I would get behind this.

But if someone is young and thinks they're capable enough to crush for lol 20bb hr , they would be smart enough to know what a miserable, scummy place the gambling world is.

And how important it would be to just get the amount of money they need to do something awesome with their lives and get the **** out.

Which means they would take a good crack at it at least for a couple years try and put in some impressive volume.

--

But you're right though. I have no idea what your goals are. Everyone's tastes are different.

With all the stuff you say about how miserable this industry is (I agree with you) I'm surprised you apparently don't mind spending more time in this industry than you would if you planned a little better.
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Old 10-16-2015, 08:52 PM   #11385
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The people that don't see a problem spending that much time in a casino are usually:

1) young and idealistic wanna be pros (who haven't actually experienced 1000s of hrs yet)
2) degens who just love being in and around action
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Old 10-16-2015, 09:10 PM   #11386
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post

In other words, if your hourly has actually been 3bb/hour, and 1800 hours is what it takes to make your living expenses, how CAN you not be playing more? Kind of seems like a thinly veiled brag there and basically saying you don't understand why people making less has to work more, but you already know that.
There's things that are a lot more important to being a successful poker player than being good at poker. Winrates are a gigantic pissing contest. Just to put this in perspective based on my own real life experiences -

My first year or so in Vegas I absolutely crushed it. Everything, volume , hourly, focus, happiness, etc. It was a brand new environment for me and everything was exciting, fun etc. This is after playing a few years at Foxwoods.

I did not pocket that much cash because despite me being in the poker room and making a lot of money due to hourly and hours, I spent like an absolute idiot. I'm fortunate I never hit the wall so in that sense I do appreciate the fact that I "ran good". I made massive car payments that ate up a big chunk, tons of partying, ate out every meal, other stuff, whatever.

So even though by this volume + hourly metric that people ITT seem to harp over and over, I didn't really "make" a bunch of money because I spent like an idiot. I definitely do not regret this because I had an awesome time as a bright eyed young man in Las Vegas, but this is a whole other (futile) discussion as to whether I should regret this or not.

I just want to point out that even though now I don't play a ton of hours, I have a nice nest egg from saving/investing/managing myself like a 25 year old (semi) adult, rather than a 22 year old kid spending money like crazy.

So even if someone's winrate isn't spectacular, you can more than managably make up for this lack of poker skill in other areas. There are tons of boring nits in Vegas that fit this description perfectly. They basically suck at the technical aspect of poker, but they save, play a decent amount and save. They are good "poker managers", but not good poker players. When I say "boring nit", that isn't even really meant to be fully derogatory, it's just them surviving, which is commendable when your only true income comes from poker.

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Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
If you were like 45 and unemployable I would get behind this.

But if someone is young and thinks they're capable enough to crush for lol 20bb hr , they would be smart enough to know what a miserable, scummy place the gambling world is.

And how important it would be to just get the amount of money they need to do something awesome with their lives and get the **** out.

Which means they would take a good crack at it at least for a couple years try and put in some impressive volume.

--

But you're right though. I have no idea what your goals are. Everyone's tastes are different.

With all the stuff you say about how miserable this industry is (I agree with you) I'm surprised you apparently don't mind spending more time in this industry than you would if you planned a little better.
I don't really feel like discussing all my own personal finances, but I'm getting there at a fine pace, believe me. Mostly because I put in hours when I needed to.

In regards to planning, early 20s kid that keep most their net worth on them in cash make poor decisions, what can I say. When I was 21 or 22 the last thing I was thinking about was my annual IRA % return. Kids gonna be kids and that's perfectly fine.

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Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
The people that don't see a problem spending that much time in a casino are usually:

1) young and idealistic wanna be pros (who haven't actually experienced 1000s of hrs yet)
2) degens who just love being in and around action
This is as accurate as a post as I've read in this thread.

Whenever I see the "Play more hours!" vs "Play less hours!" debate - the idealistic newbies and degens are on the play more hours side, the experienced professionals with longevity are on the other side.

Marathon. Not sprint.
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Old 10-16-2015, 09:54 PM   #11387
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Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
The people that don't see a problem spending that much time in a casino are usually:

1) young and idealistic wanna be pros (who haven't actually experienced 1000s of hrs yet)
2) degens who just love being in and around action
How much is "that much time"? I think pros should be spending a sufficient amount of time working, and I'm in neither of your categories.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:09 PM   #11388
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yah if yer a pro its pretty much yer job to play mucho poker
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:11 PM   #11389
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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
There's things that are a lot more important to being a successful poker player than being good at poker. Winrates are a gigantic pissing contest. Just to put this in perspective based on my own real life experiences -

My first year or so in Vegas I absolutely crushed it. Everything, volume , hourly, focus, happiness, etc. It was a brand new environment for me and everything was exciting, fun etc. This is after playing a few years at Foxwoods.

I did not pocket that much cash because despite me being in the poker room and making a lot of money due to hourly and hours, I spent like an absolute idiot. I'm fortunate I never hit the wall so in that sense I do appreciate the fact that I "ran good". I made massive car payments that ate up a big chunk, tons of partying, ate out every meal, other stuff, whatever.

So even though by this volume + hourly metric that people ITT seem to harp over and over, I didn't really "make" a bunch of money because I spent like an idiot. I definitely do not regret this because I had an awesome time as a bright eyed young man in Las Vegas, but this is a whole other (futile) discussion as to whether I should regret this or not.

I just want to point out that even though now I don't play a ton of hours, I have a nice nest egg from saving/investing/managing myself like a 25 year old (semi) adult, rather than a 22 year old kid spending money like crazy.

So even if someone's winrate isn't spectacular, you can more than managably make up for this lack of poker skill in other areas. There are tons of boring nits in Vegas that fit this description perfectly. They basically suck at the technical aspect of poker, but they save, play a decent amount and save. They are good "poker managers", but not good poker players. When I say "boring nit", that isn't even really meant to be fully derogatory, it's just them surviving, which is commendable when your only true income comes from poker.
You are still only saying you are where you are because you play way better/run way better and have good financial sense though.

I know you are, but the fact that all these stars happened to align for YOU doesn't address my point of how exactly someone else is supposed to make a decent living playing minimum hours in order to pursue life happiness, when they don't play/run as good and/or have as good as a financial sense as you? I'm just saying that we shouldn't be so quick to judge.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:22 PM   #11390
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You are still only saying you are where you are because you play way better/run way better and have good financial sense though.

I know you are, but the fact that all these stars happened to align for YOU doesn't address my point of how exactly someone else is supposed to make a decent living playing minimum hours in order to pursue life happiness, when they don't play/run as good and/or have as good as a financial sense as you? I'm just saying that we shouldn't be so quick to judge.
I would tell them that if them that if all of the below is true

1. I'm not good at poker.
2. I can't manage my finances.
3. I don't like playing a ton of hours.

Probably find a new job... Seems like a very reasonable answer.

If you love poker and want to play a ton of hours, go for it. I'm just saying most of the people who think this way are very new and will reach a burnout point.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:35 PM   #11391
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Ti
How good are you at playing deep? Few of us are great at it if recs, as we don't get a lot of practice at it, and it's an expensive skill to learn. Pros tend to have a big advantage deep over even very good recs due to experience.
It's pretty straightforward, just punish capped ranges and play any two ip. And suited Ax goes way up in value. Raise folding is the biggest problem, ime.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:37 PM   #11392
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I think rob made a good point,

im absolutely horrible at poker but have managed to slowly increase my standard of living by playing primarily 1/2-1/3NL fulltime the past 2 years

Im able to actually do this by basically just being a great money manager.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:45 PM   #11393
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I would tell them that if them that if all of the below is true

1. I'm not good at poker.
2. I can't manage my finances.
3. I don't like playing a ton of hours.

Probably find a new job... Seems like a very reasonable answer.

If you love poker and want to play a ton of hours, go for it. I'm just saying most of the people who think this way are very new and will reach a burnout point.
But if only 1 or 2 is true, then they can compensate by playing longer hours. Most people fall between the extremes of having all 3 things and having none of the 3 things, so it's not a good example to use either extreme.

Anyways, how many hours exactly do you consider reasonable anyways? That's probably all we are arguing here because I doubt anyone (myself included) would think playing 2k+ hours a year is reasonable/healthy, but no one would ever say, the less hours you put in poker the better!

Another thing is that more experienced players usually work less because they have done most of their work earlier so there is less studying to do, or that they are playing higher so they don't need to play as much to maintain their lifestyle.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:58 PM   #11394
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Anyways, how many hours exactly do you consider reasonable anyways? That's probably all we are arguing here because I doubt anyone (myself included) would think playing 2k+ hours a year is reasonable/healthy, but no one would ever say, the less hours you put in poker the better!

Another thing is that more experienced players usually work less because they have done most of their work earlier so there is less studying to do, or that they are playing higher so they don't need to play as much to maintain their lifestyle.
no arguments from me

I think 25-30hrs a week is on the reasonable low end. With lots of weeks where you play less and not too many where you play more.

I take issue with the people who say you "need" 40hrs every week. If that's your predicament then something has gone terrible wrong.

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If you're in a situation where you are starting to play poker, trying to build a bankroll and have very little money behind you - you have failed already. This should never be your situation. It leads to stress, it leads to you hating poker due to inevitability of losing and worst of all it will lead to failure. This should never be your situation.

Get a job. Seriously, get a job. There is no shame in joining the workforce. People have this mentality that they are too good to work which has basically propped out of thin air.

When you are just starting out live, playing 20 hours a week and working a part time job for variance free income accomplishes a lot.

1. You don't have to worry about rent.
2. You can find out if you're actually good enough to beat the game for a livable wage.

To be a pro poker player not only do you need to beat the game, you need to beat the rake, and you need to beat it for a solid livable wage. The definition of livable wage is always going to vary from individual to individual, but remember there are no benefits and nothing except what you win from playing - that's it. You need a big nest egg that should always be provided by something that is not poker.
No shame in playing part-time to figure out your life, then adjust your poker schedule accordingly.

If you're already a poker pro, you should never "need" to play for purposes of paying the rent or my goodness being able to eat or other basic stuff like that.

Second point is very valid and not something I considered. More experienced players have already done the work earlier.

If I'm capable of saving money, everyone is.
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Old 10-17-2015, 02:39 AM   #11395
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How much is "that much time"? I think pros should be spending a sufficient amount of time working, and I'm in neither of your categories.
I think equivocation has occurred and we're arguing two different points.

We desire to make money, we need to work to make it.

But, do we really relish spending a huge volume of hours in a casino atmosphere with the patrons and employees?

The means serves the end here -- many of us don't really care for the means.
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Old 10-17-2015, 03:09 AM   #11396
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How much does a Mississippi straddle change the variance in a game?
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Old 10-17-2015, 03:14 AM   #11397
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How much does a Mississippi straddle change the variance in a game?

It more than double the stakes. If the blinds call a lot, then it is nearly 3x the game.
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Old 10-17-2015, 03:18 AM   #11398
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I dont know how to maf

but I guess what im asking is:

Is it more common to experience larger swings in a 100bb cap game that allows MS straddle?

Would that also mean that the StDev would be higher?
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Old 10-17-2015, 03:24 AM   #11399
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Yes - it would be swingier.. the cap restricts it somewhat, but that is no doubt a bigger game now
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Old 10-17-2015, 04:07 AM   #11400
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Ever since the comment that the thread was getting bad, the thread has actually gotten good

Thanks Rob, Snowball and others for the insightful posts as of late
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