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Old 02-04-2015, 07:48 PM   #8876
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I am a rebuy fiend when I don't start off the session on a positive note. I will be taking this into account.
as you should. alls im sayin is if you dont rebuy then you dont have to put anything other than current stack size. if you rebuy just add it in (or subtract). from my experience less is more.
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Old 02-05-2015, 12:10 AM   #8877
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Alright, guys. I recently hit $1k on Bovada and I need a break from online poker. I am going to cash out and take this roll live and actually not spend any winnings, like I have been for the last year.

I am curious, if you had $1k to play live, really did not want to risk going bust(which I seriously doubt is even possible with how soft the live 1/2 games are here), how would you do it? Are you playing extra tight and passing up on some marginal spots? What about preflop, are you looking to see more flops with hands like TT, JJ, QQ, AKs, and less interested in getting it in pre for stacks?
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Old 02-05-2015, 12:48 AM   #8878
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^ Passing on marginal spots doesn't guarantee lowered variance. It probably increases the variance.

You can't be concerned about the short run. I hate when guys on ESPN says "In the playoffs, sabermetrics don't work." It's not that, it's just that it may take many short runs (playoff appearances) to see the benefits. But no matter how long or short they make the playoff series, it behooves you to make the most EV long run decisions.

So it's not optimal that you have just $1K but it doesn't mean there's some secret low bankroll strategy that's guaranteed to win. If there were, even the guys with a lot more money would do it. Play 1/2 like you have $100K, if you go broke it sucks, but there's nothing else you can do.
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Old 02-05-2015, 12:53 AM   #8879
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I am curious, if you had $1k to play live, really did not want to risk going bust(which I seriously doubt is even possible with how soft the live 1/2 games are here), how would you do it? Are you playing extra tight and passing up on some marginal spots? What about preflop, are you looking to see more flops with hands like TT, JJ, QQ, AKs, and less interested in getting it in pre for stacks?
I play in some soft games (albeit crazy sometimes) and it's pretty easy to punt $1000.

You can't really *worry* about losing it all. Buy in for $200 at a shot. Pick your spots well. That doesn't mean to play super nitty and wait for lock hands, you'll bleed chips that way and get little action when you do pick up a hand. It means sit down and assess the table, then make a plan before you go getting into marginal spots against player you don't know. Once you've got a read/profile on them feel free to open up a bit more.

There's some value in passing up really close spots if losing will hurt your mental state and your play afterwards though.
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Old 02-05-2015, 01:14 AM   #8880
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Originally Posted by bm303 View Post
Alright, guys. I recently hit $1k on Bovada and I need a break from online poker. I am going to cash out and take this roll live and actually not spend any winnings, like I have been for the last year.

I am curious, if you had $1k to play live, really did not want to risk going bust(which I seriously doubt is even possible with how soft the live 1/2 games are here), how would you do it? Are you playing extra tight and passing up on some marginal spots? What about preflop, are you looking to see more flops with hands like TT, JJ, QQ, AKs, and less interested in getting it in pre for stacks?
Tbh Bovada is so soft that it might be a better idea to build it to 2k on there through .25/.50 cash games before cashing out and playing live. Risk of ruin will be much lower since you'll have 20 buyins to work with instead of just 5 buyins at $1/$2 live.
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Old 02-05-2015, 01:19 AM   #8881
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Originally Posted by bm303 View Post
Alright, guys. I recently hit $1k on Bovada and I need a break from online poker. I am going to cash out and take this roll live and actually not spend any winnings, like I have been for the last year.

I am curious, if you had $1k to play live, really did not want to risk going bust(which I seriously doubt is even possible with how soft the live 1/2 games are here), how would you do it? Are you playing extra tight and passing up on some marginal spots? What about preflop, are you looking to see more flops with hands like TT, JJ, QQ, AKs, and less interested in getting it in pre for stacks?
YOU'RE at risk of going bust even if you had 2k, 3k, etc

I'd buy in for the max (or 300), and play the most optimal poker you are capable of.

If you want to reduce variance or risk of ruin, then cash out when you have 400, 500, or whenever you start to "feel it"
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:27 AM   #8882
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This particular poster seems too into a "system" to do well, you can't know how you're going to attack a session before it happens.

But making a living at 1/2 isn't difficult. I don't know what the careers are of the regulars in LLSNL but I'd imagine $25/hour in LV is within our capabilities. That's $50K a year if you fit in 40 hours/week. That's more money than plenty of jobs, especially plenty of first year jobs. The boredom is the difficult part, not the winrate. I think more than 1 out of 1,ooo cam pull off the winrate.
You can't pull off the winrate if you're getting bored.

I don't doubt that a lot of people make an hourly that would equate to a nice job but maintaining that hourly over 2k hours/year is not the same. Partly because you're not always playing at the best times, partly because you aren't playing your best and partly because the swings wear you down a lot more when your livelihood is at stake.
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Old 02-05-2015, 03:33 AM   #8883
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If you want to play 1/2 for a living why would you choose to do so in Las Vegas of all places?!
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Old 02-05-2015, 04:22 AM   #8884
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Originally Posted by bm303 View Post
Alright, guys. I recently hit $1k on Bovada and I need a break from online poker. I am going to cash out and take this roll live and actually not spend any winnings, like I have been for the last year.

I am curious, if you had $1k to play live, really did not want to risk going bust(which I seriously doubt is even possible with how soft the live 1/2 games are here), how would you do it? Are you playing extra tight and passing up on some marginal spots? What about preflop, are you looking to see more flops with hands like TT, JJ, QQ, AKs, and less interested in getting it in pre for stacks?
I would probably try to continue to build it up on Bovada till you have a decent live bankroll. Live is soft but that doesn't change the fact that you will only have 5BIs to work with. Its pretty easy to loss that amount running bad in really good games.

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Old 02-05-2015, 03:05 PM   #8885
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If you want to play 1/2 for a living why would you choose to do so in Las Vegas of all places?!
Because you go to the poker room and they hand you cash, and Vegas is awesome.
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Old 02-05-2015, 04:07 PM   #8886
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Because you go to the poker room and they hand you cash, and Vegas is awesome.
I know you've had great success in off-strip games in Vegas but in general Vegas low stakes games are tougher than they are in most major locations across the country.

Sure, if Vegas is your ideal place to live then I understand that.
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Old 02-05-2015, 06:51 PM   #8887
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^ The LA games might be better but not enough to offset the cost of living. I don't know about the Florida cost of living but LA and FL are the only places I'd put ahead of LV for best games.
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:06 PM   #8888
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^ The LA games might be better but not enough to offset the cost of living. I don't know about the Florida cost of living but LA and FL are the only places I'd put ahead of LV for best games.
FL's pretty cheap. No income tax. Lots of sun and no ****ing snow, ever.

But there are old people everywhere and driving anywhere seems to involve the risk of imminent death from some senior citizen plowing through a red light.

At least that's what it's like every time I visit family there.
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:06 PM   #8889
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LA is better. Northern California is better. Florida is better. Louisiana is better. Oklahoma is better. I bet Hammonds is better. Arizona? I'll concede that the northeast is supposed to have bad games.
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:21 PM   #8890
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>Oklahoma is better.

But do you really want to live in Oklahoma?
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:29 PM   #8891
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No, but you can live in Dallas. OKC might be a good place to live, I don't know (all my OU buddies rave about how great Norman is and that's an OKC suburb). A lot of people would never want to live in Vegas. I was simply naming the places that I believe have better games. Some are more livable than others
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:22 PM   #8892
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh look the winrates thread has mindmelded with the "where should I move to grind" thread? YAY!
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:25 PM   #8893
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Thinking of moving to Utah. Any good games?
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:32 PM   #8894
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Mesquite NV imo.

Last edited by zoltan; 02-05-2015 at 08:32 PM. Reason: right next to UT
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Old 02-08-2015, 01:11 AM   #8895
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Yes, I have thought about this. I'm just going to consider any hand I'm not at the table as a hand where I fold blind (and I will also just not record any orbits I skip). Also, short-handed play *may* skew results, and I'm aware of that, but short-handed play tends to mean skipping the worst positions, where I'd normally be folding anyway, so I don't think the skew effect will be that much (but probably will be there a little bit).

EDITed to add: this effect would tend to skew hours or sessions too. So I don't think the effect is unique to tracking by orbit.
I was thinking about this project. Orbits are messy because hands/orbit won't be uniform. And time is arbitrary, why 1 hour, why not 100 minutes, etc.

The best thing you can probably do is record you'r +/- every 100 hands.
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Old 02-08-2015, 01:44 AM   #8896
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None of it matters because it's all just one long session.
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Old 02-08-2015, 08:43 AM   #8897
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Thinking of moving to Utah. Any good games?

there is a sunday game after church at the Tabernacle in SLC
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Old 02-08-2015, 09:51 AM   #8898
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there is a sunday game after church at the Tabernacle in SLC

Best 5-card draw in the country imo
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Old 02-08-2015, 03:16 PM   #8899
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None of it matters because it's all just one long session.
I understand but CMV seems hellbent on coming up with an addendum to the CLT as it relates to poker.
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Old 02-08-2015, 09:36 PM   #8900
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've grinded up 100 $1/2 buyins in about a year. The more I play I realize how far I've come, but I also realize how much I need to learn and continue to practice to become a good player. I don't consider myself a good player, but everyone is so terrible at this game, I don't have to be good to be a winner at $1/2.

I'm going to definitely now be playing $2/5 with a rule that I can never buy in to $2/5 if it puts me below 100 $1/2 buy-ins. I feel like the difficulty of $2/5 will be a tad above $1/2, so if I'm a winner at $1/2 I'll be a winner at $2/5.

The only thing is, that I know I'll be making mistakes, and I'll know I'll be using $2/5 as a learning medium, I feel kind of dirty spewing $500-$1500 because of ******ed decisions vs $200-600. But I guess it's not about the money but the BBs lost and won. In both cases it's the same BB lost because I ****ed up.

Should I just shoot for 200 $1/2 BI? Is a year and about 1000 hours of live play enough to know you're a winner or am I still risking ruin? I know I've gotten lucky a **** ton of times, but I've also gotten unlucky about the same.

With out a DB I can't see if I'm running under or above EV.

Anyway, DAE feel like a noob at poker even though beat your limit?
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