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Old 05-28-2013, 09:27 PM   #5126
King Fish
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
I dunno,

everywhere I play 2/5nl at seems pretty damn soft and beatable.

I've played in CA, NM, AZ, and Vegas

You obviously got your good players and winning players and semi-pros... but there are more than enough fish, droolers and bad regs.

I think the term "solid" is one of the most overused terms in the casino in regards to so-called decent players. No. Most regs and even most winning regs have big holes and leaks in their games. They've custom built a style of poker that doesn't necessarily revolve around extracting max value, but rather around "not losing". Every single time I play, my table will be infested with so-called "solid" players all jawing on and on about "don't wanna be greedy... that's what you get for slowplaying... I hate getting my aces cracked that's why I raised so much... How could you call with that when I raised $35 pre (nevermind that we are 300bb deep) etc etc"

Imo, yes, fish and droolers and mouth breathers are great sources of profits. But to me, an equally big source of my profits come from prison raping so-called decent players. They often have no clue how to play deep and their custom built "not losing" strategy sets them up to make all kinds of mistakes, the biggest one being betting in such a way that the only had that calls them is a hand that beats them. That is based on their pathological fear of "not losing".

Anyways, just my random two cents.
I agree with this 100%. I play an exploitive strategy, tailoring my game to the weaknesses of particular individuals at a table as well as exploiting the collective table dynamic. The better I know the regs in a room, generally the more my WR goes up.

Half the room thinks I'm some uber shark, other half an uber fish. That's because my style varies fairly dramatically depending on the day/table. (Don't get me wrong, most of the time it's ABC cruise control, but when there is a play or player to exploit, I'm on it.)

I also like using players' strengths and weaknesses against each other (Simplified example: building a nice pot IP when you have an ep pf aggrotard and a station, then pot controlling/building as needed later streets).

In a pretty good hand reader, so that allows me to spew a bit more than average without sacrificing too much short-term EV. I'm also able to build the image I want (for a few months at least.)

While I probably don't win any Sklansky bucks with my play, my live results have been consistent for more than a decade. Right now I play in a casino that has some of the juiciest 2/5 and 1/2 action (and 1/2 is just so easy to exploit... Keep building small pots till u get the nuts, then jam), I've actually been sacrificing a bit of my business to play as often as I can (dynamic will soon change as 2 rival casinos are opening and will start dividing the player pool.)

Only drawback is 5/10 and higher rarely gets going, and the 5/5 PLO game (a game where I doubt I have an edge) draws much of the money.

Still, I have it good. While it's still way early, I currently have a W/R above $100/hr at 2/5. (About 400 hours, 150 of which have been tracked by live journal). My 1/2 is at about $90/hr, but that is because I only have about 20 tracked hours...I just started incorporating 1/2 into my table selection when 2/5 is slow and as a way to reduce variance/ get hours in while not on "A" game.

While of course I don't think these rates are sustainable, I do think at this particular casino a WR between $70-80/hr is (and seems to be what the top
Pros there make.)

I definitely have leaks/holes in my game, but am starting to figure out how to mitigate them against players that used to give me trouble. I approach each table (and each player) like a puzzle. Generally, give me enough time, and I'll eventually figure it out.

Really curious to see where my WR falls after
1000 hours. Since there really is nowhere for me to move up (the 5/10 when it does go is a nitfest and usually not worth it to play when 2/5 is juicy), I'll be "stuck" here for awhile.

Also, I generally play from 9-5 weekdays. Rarely get an opportunity to enjoy the very, very good weekend games.

Of course, all this may be the ruling delusions of a fish on a heater.

Last edited by King Fish; 05-28-2013 at 09:31 PM. Reason: Apologize for any typos/rambling. Written on an iPhone while waiting for my daughter to fall asleep :p
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Old 05-28-2013, 10:38 PM   #5127
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by The Rumor View Post
When you consider the rake and tips the majority of players in your room have to be losers.

That includes regs who play a lot, a fair amount of them are donators.
+1

"Reg" does not imply winning player, although I think that term has evolved on 2+2 to insinuate someone who wins. This seems to be based on the assumption that if someone is seen playing poker on multiple occasions, they must be winning, otherwise why would they play? A lot of people like gambling, and some prefer playing poker over slots or pit games. Many have regular jobs or are collecting social security and have some extra cash to toss around for fun somewhat frequently.
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Old 05-28-2013, 11:21 PM   #5128
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by illini43 View Post
+1

"Reg" does not imply winning player, although I think that term has evolved on 2+2 to insinuate someone who wins. This seems to be based on the assumption that if someone is seen playing poker on multiple occasions, they must be winning, otherwise why would they play? A lot of people like gambling, and some prefer playing poker over slots or pit games. Many have regular jobs or are collecting social security and have some extra cash to toss around for fun somewhat frequently.
hey, illini. long time.

IDK; being in Vegas with the tourist trade, a "local" is a person who plays a lot and breaks even or loses, and a "reg" is a pro who is making a living.

Just the way I think about it in my head. Obviously wouldn't work elsewhere.

Most of the b/e and losing locals I see wouldn't know tracking software if I showed it to them on the phone. But like sol, I think 19/20 winning regs, in my games, the pros, would know about it.

Come to think about it, I'm pretty sure the tourist crowd here tracks results with a way higher frequency than the locals. I'm forever seeing tourists with poker journal, equity calculators and bravo poker for game selection out and in use. I never see locals with those apps.
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Old 05-29-2013, 11:46 AM   #5129
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What's up mpethy?

Your distinction between "local" and "reg" makes complete sense in the Vegas setting.

I also think the location/clientale of a card room has a lot to do with the caliber of player, especially with re: those who track their results and plug away on equity calculators. In Vegas, neighboring casinos could attract very different clientale (I'm thinking V vs. Harrah's), which is going to influence the player pool in each room. Same can be said for other areas with multiple casino options within reasonable driving distance of each other.

I've never seen anyone use poker software near the table, but that's probably because I've only played ~40 hours of live poker in the last 1.5 years. Or perhaps that what people are doing on their phones across the table as they sit silently and listen to music.
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Old 05-29-2013, 12:40 PM   #5130
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by serio562 View Post
I would like to see more WR's posted with more than 1k hours.
1/3 NL

$33,921.00 over 1,149:55 = $29.50/hr (9.83 bb/hr)

Gpostingbias,fishonaheaterG
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Old 05-29-2013, 05:01 PM   #5131
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Keep crushing GG.
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Old 05-29-2013, 05:47 PM   #5132
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by serio562 View Post
I would like to see more WR's posted with more than 1k hours.
Finally was able to consolidate all my poker log excel spreadsheets dating back to my college days in NOLA with my PokerIncome iPhone app results to get some combined results for my casino action (no online results included):

Date Range (Feb 2006 to Present)
Total Profit: +$47,849
Total Hours: 1,954 (279 hrs/yr avg)
Hourly Win Rate: $24.48/hr

I was able to play more hours while in college (and before married) during 2006 and 2007 but once I graduated and got a real job it's been more like a profitable hobby. I'd say about 30% of these hours were at 1/2 at Harrah's New Orleans/LV, 60% were at 2/5 or 3/5, and 10% at 1/1 or 1/2 home games. This makes calculating a long term bb/hr rate more difficult since my stats from 2006-2010 aren't tagged with the blinds structure played (fail, I know but I was just starting to track results).
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Old 05-30-2013, 10:53 PM   #5133
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Your question is like asking which state develops the best football players.

I would probably go with one with most active player pool.

Look up Bravo and figure that out.
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Old 05-31-2013, 04:13 AM   #5134
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Someone can answer this?
At 2/5, games are fairly soft/good in all these locations, but I would agree with this order. Not sure about 1/2, but Borgata's 2/5 is far from nitty.
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Old 05-31-2013, 11:30 AM   #5135
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Ya'll must seriously play in some horrid games if you think $50 an hour at 2/5 is some head in the clouds top player number.

I don't want to advertise more than wheeldog already has, but yea in Fl you can overvalue bet the absolute piss out of villains. If you ever see resistance fold. So the vanilla bet/fold strategy will seriously put you in the top 5% of players.

Like it seems so exploitable but even the "competent" villains are pretty bad. I'll post every hundred hours in here from now on, coming up on my first hundred of 2/5.
its not because the games suck. its because the posters complaining about the games suck. if you cant win 40/hr playing 2/5 then you suck really bad

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No way, I think like 95%+ of regs in my games know about tracking software and about 30% of them use one (I see them use them) Literally 19/20 would know about them I think, and quite a few track. I know personally of 10+ regs who track and there isn't that big a reg pool.

Seriously, I think you guys define regs way too loosely if they include donating whales. Those are regular fish, not regs.
agreed
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Originally Posted by Midnight Cowboy View Post
At 2/5, games are fairly soft/good in all these locations, but I would agree with this order. Not sure about 1/2, but Borgata's 2/5 is far from nitty.
<3 borgata. but not so much without stan
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Old 05-31-2013, 08:23 PM   #5136
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I posted this in several PLO threads with no luck. I feel that I may be able to get an answer here. It has been said that in live NLH if you are beating the game for 10bb/hr you are crushing the game. How many bb's/hr can you expect to make if you are crushing a similar live PLO game?
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Old 05-31-2013, 08:32 PM   #5137
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You shouldn't even worry about it.

1/2 PLO plays bigger than 3/5 in most rooms, so I don't even know why you're asking such question.
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Old 06-01-2013, 03:08 AM   #5138
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How many buy-ins are needed for a bankroll to play 2-5 LLSNL? What is the largest downswing that you think we should expect to see before we need to really start looking at our game critically as it is most likely the problem?
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Old 06-01-2013, 03:10 AM   #5139
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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You shouldn't even worry about it.

1/2 PLO plays bigger than 3/5 in most rooms, so I don't even know why you're asking such question.
Thanks for the information!
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Old 06-01-2013, 01:19 PM   #5140
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here's a question for people that live in states where poker is not legal (I live in Texas). Would it still be profitable for me to fly to vegas to play $1/$2 for a week? Flight+hotel will cost me $300.
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Old 06-01-2013, 01:28 PM   #5141
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Here's a question for people that live in states where poker is not legal (I live in Texas). Would it still be profitable for me to fly to vegas to play $1/$2 for a week? Flight+hotel will cost me $300.
Take your hourly, multiply it by the # of hours you expect to play, and if that number is larger than 300+estimated food expenses, then the trip will be profitable.
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Old 06-01-2013, 01:39 PM   #5142
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Take your hourly, multiply it by the # of hours you expect to play, and if that number is larger than 300+estimated food expenses, then the trip will be profitable.
I don't really know my winrate live or what an attainable one is. I was just wondering in general if anybody thinks it's possible to make any money playing $1/$2 if you have significant travel expenses.
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Old 06-01-2013, 01:44 PM   #5143
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If you can't beat 1/2 for $300 after playing a week, then you can't beat it...

Kind of straight forward, eh?
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Old 06-01-2013, 01:51 PM   #5144
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bigslowy2 View Post
Here's a question for people that live in states where poker is not legal (I live in Texas). Would it still be profitable for me to fly to vegas to play $1/$2 for a week? Flight+hotel will cost me $300.
This trip will be profitable for a winning player. However, if you plan to grind 1-2 for a living with "significant travel expenses," I would say this is not going to be profitable. Shoot me a PM with more detail. How big your bankroll is and what you call significant travel expenses certainly makes or breaks the proposition.
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Old 06-01-2013, 02:15 PM   #5145
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This trip will be profitable for a winning player. However, if you plan to grind 1-2 for a living with "significant travel expenses," I would say this is not going to be profitable. Shoot me a PM with more detail. How big your bankroll is and what you call significant travel expenses certainly makes or breaks the proposition.
I don't play poker for a living and really just wanting to play live poker recreational and eek out a decent profit without having to go to one of the shady underground casinos here in Austin. I only have a bankroll of $1500 that I'm willing to lose. Knowing that, do you think it would be worth if I flew to Vegas a few times a year (costing about $400 in total expenses) to grind 1/2 for about 50-60 hours during that week?
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Old 06-01-2013, 02:17 PM   #5146
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well this month was pretty crappy, didn't get to play as many days as I wanted, had to go out of town for about a week. Because of the NBA playoffs I've also been starting my sessions later at night, usually around 9 PM after the games are over, which has resulted in shorter 3-5 hour sessions than I usually play. Ran pretty awful with all-in EV again this month, losing a number of hands on river 1-4 outers for pretty large pots, but what can you do....If I had won a few of those hands the month would look pretty good. Not horrible, not great, but any profitable month is a good thing. Did not play any 2/5 this month, only 1/2.

May results:

Total sessions: 20
Total winnings: $2,507
Average win per session: $125.35
Total winnings year-to-date: $23,231
Average win per session year-to-date: $178.70

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Old 06-01-2013, 02:18 PM   #5147
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bigslowy2 View Post
I don't play poker for a living and really just wanting to play live poker recreational and eek out a decent profit without having to go to one of the shady underground casinos here in Austin. I only have a bankroll of $1500 that I'm willing to lose. Knowing that, do you think it would be worth if I flew to Vegas a few times a year (costing about $400 in total expenses) to grind 1/2 for about 50-60 hours during that week?
You could win about $1200 a trip if you are a good player. A $1500 bankroll is likely cutting it thin though. You will feel pressured and unless you run good off the bat you may lose it all due to natural fluctuations in the game. Given that information you should be able to make a decision of whether it is worth your time to make these trips or not.

Last edited by Hustle247; 06-01-2013 at 02:25 PM.
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Old 06-01-2013, 02:21 PM   #5148
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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Well this month was pretty crappy, didn't get to play as many days as I wanted, had to go out of town for about a week. Because of the NBA playoffs I've also been starting my sessions later at night, usually around 9 PM after the games are over, which has resulted in shorter 3-5 hour sessions than I usually play. Ran pretty awful with all-in EV again this month, losing a number of hands on river 1-4 outers for pretty large pots, but what can you do....If I had won a few of those hands the month would look pretty good. Not horrible, not great, but any profitable month is a good thing. Did not play any 2/5 this month, only 1/2.

May results:

Total sessions: 20
Total winnings: $2,507
Average win per session: $125.35
Total winnings year-to-date: $23,231
Average win per session year-to-date: $178.70

Well Done Sir!
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Old 06-01-2013, 02:22 PM   #5149
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Originally Posted by bigslowy2 View Post
I don't play poker for a living and really just wanting to play live poker recreational and eek out a decent profit without having to go to one of the shady underground casinos here in Austin. I only have a bankroll of $1500 that I'm willing to lose. Knowing that, do you think it would be worth if I flew to Vegas a few times a year (costing about $400 in total expenses) to grind 1/2 for about 50-60 hours during that week?
It really is this simple...

Quote:
Originally Posted by derada4 View Post
Take your hourly, multiply it by the # of hours you expect to play, and if that number is larger than 300+estimated food expenses, then the trip will be profitable.
So if you win $7/hr x 60 = $420, which is more than $400...

How much more straight forward can it be?
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Old 06-01-2013, 02:58 PM   #5150
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First full month using Poker Journal. All play is M-F between 9-6. Obviously running well, but have not had pleasure yet of playing on weekend, when games are even juicier.

5/10 is rarely worth playing. Hopped in on a day it was particularly juicy and ran well. Pretty sure that hourly is not sustainable... (Or any of them long-term).

Small sample size of course, but my Friday hourly is significantly higher than Mon-Thu. About 400 hours tracked since Feb, and hourly is over 20BBs. Am hoping to be able to start playing more hours in coming months...still just a part-time gig. Curious to see where it's at after 1k hours. I know the top top pros in card room make around 70-80. I'd consider myself among the top 5 regs. Guess time will tell.

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