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Old 03-30-2012, 06:47 PM   #1376
SeaUlater
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Just count your starting and end position, then add that to number of orbits.
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Old 03-30-2012, 07:43 PM   #1377
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You won't have a full table the entire time
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:27 PM   #1378
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Close enough...
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Old 04-01-2012, 03:42 AM   #1379
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb View Post
higher than that i'd say. 30-40 depending on how competent the dealer is.
Thanks. I know hands per hour change with dealer efficiency, pot sizes, chops, hands, and player involvment.

Sounds like 25-30 sounds about right.
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Old 04-02-2012, 12:41 PM   #1380
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This might be a stupid question, but that hasn't stopped me before...

I have the choice of another game in my area. One game is 1/3 NL with a $300 maximum buy-in. The other is 1/2 NL, but again with a maximum buy-in of $300. Assume the games play the same (i.e. very similar pool of players and, due to same maximum buy-in, the games play pretty much the same in terms of average stack sizes at table, raise sizes, etc.).

Question: In terms of $$$ per hour (not BBs), could one game be more profitable than the other?

I'm guessing the 1/2 game might be more profitable simply because I'm not spending the extra $1 in blinds per round (although this might be close cuz I might complete my small blind a lot more loosely in 1/2 than in 1/3), plus I'm able to get into a lotta limped pots for $2 instead of $3 (although it's possible it might be slightly more difficult to build pots due to starting pot size on flop).

Thoughts?
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Old 04-02-2012, 12:43 PM   #1381
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

any rake difference? are people always buying in for max?
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Old 04-02-2012, 12:45 PM   #1382
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I believe that 1/3 will always be more profitable because of the size of BB, which creates bigger pots on average.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:02 PM   #1383
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1400 x 25 hands per hour is 35k hands. That is close to meaningless in terms of sample size. Its not rare for fish to run hot for 50-60k hands before going broke.

.
sorry bro, but your pretty off.

live and online poker are completely different in terms of sample size. putting in 1400 hours strictly playing live is the equivalent of playing 250k hands of ol.

its a pretty ridiculous statement thinking bad players/fish can run good for more then a year..its just not going to happen, ol and live are 2 different games. fish do not run good for more then 30k hands..lol thats a crazy statement especially live.

if you dont think 30k hands live is a big sample size then you dont know what your talking bout....imo

Last edited by Crystal ExtacY; 04-02-2012 at 01:08 PM.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:35 PM   #1384
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any rake difference? are people always buying in for max?
Honestly, not sure about rake. I'm guessing it's the same (i.e. 10% up to $5, plus $1 for BBJ.

First time I've played in this 1/2 room, but stacks were similar to my 1/3 room (in that they were all over the place). Some shorter stacks (<$100), but also some monster stacks (one guy who had played all night was sitting with +$1600 and another guy at the table hit a heater in a short period and was right with him, multiple stacks that big I rarely even see at my 1/3 table).
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:38 PM   #1385
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Originally Posted by Crystal ExtacY View Post
sorry bro, but your pretty off.

live and online poker are completely different in terms of sample size. putting in 1400 hours strictly playing live is the equivalent of playing 250k hands of ol.

its a pretty ridiculous statement thinking bad players/fish can run good for more then a year..its just not going to happen, ol and live are 2 different games. fish do not run good for more then 30k hands..lol thats a crazy statement especially live.

if you dont think 30k hands live is a big sample size then you dont know what your talking bout....imo
It depends what we want to say our sample size is big enough to indicate. You are right that smaller samples are required for live to determine if you are a winner (higher winrates and lower standard deviation). But if you look at some of the software that can give you confidence intervals a 95% confidence interval for a player that played 40K hands and won at a good BB/100 is pretty surprising.

Its definitely possible to win 4BB/100 over 30k live hands and be a loser in the game. Maybe not a "fish", but a small loser is certainly possible.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:40 PM   #1386
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I believe that 1/3 will always be more profitable because of the size of BB, which creates bigger pots on average.
Ya, I was wondering about this. Although, all it's going to take in a multi-way limped pot is a "slight" overbet on the 1/2 flop. For example, 7 ways to a 1/3 flop is $21, so very easy to get away with betting $20. However, 7 ways to a 1/2 flop is $14, so not quite as easy to bet $20, but then again, the flop is the one place we can get away with overbets; $15 would be super easy, so $20 ain't really too much of a stretch.

Other than that, even though I did notice some preflop raise sizes that I would rarely see in my 1/3 game (such as some $8 raises), for the most part the preflop raises were the same (and I could easily open for $15-$20 and get action).
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:44 PM   #1387
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here are my stats for March. I was honestly hoping to play more. I only got in 35 hours this month. I will probably be only able to play about 35 in April as well. It was a swingy month, with most sessions seeming to be up and down and vice versa. I closed the month out with +$502 session on Friday night.

Hours: 35
$Won/Loss: $215
Hourly: $6.14

This was six sessions of $1/3 at Horseshoe Tunica.

My overall stats:

Hours: 75.5
$Won/Loss: $1,024
Hourly: $13.56
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Old 04-02-2012, 02:48 PM   #1388
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Need more hours
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Old 04-02-2012, 08:05 PM   #1389
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've played poker as a part time amature for roughly three years now, but have only started noting my live results since the beginning of March.

These are my results to date:

Game - 2/2 NLHE
Net Win -$ $3,548.00
Average Hourly Rate - $59.61
Total Expenses - $428.00
Total Sessions - 16
Total Hours - 61.25
Winning Sessions - 13
Losing Sessions - 3
Biggest Win - $808
Biggest Loss - $300

Obviously I ran pretty hot, but I'm sure I can maintain my hourly rate in the long term /sarcasm

I think I am better than most of the regs at my casino, not all, but most. I'll post another stat update once I have sufficient hours.
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Old 04-03-2012, 01:39 AM   #1390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyesforlies View Post
I've played poker as a part time amature for roughly three years now, but have only started noting my live results since the beginning of March.

These are my results to date:

Game - 2/2 NLHE
Net Win -$ $3,548.00
Average Hourly Rate - $59.61
Total Expenses - $428.00
Total Sessions - 16
Total Hours - 61.25
Winning Sessions - 13
Losing Sessions - 3
Biggest Win - $808
Biggest Loss - $300

Obviously I ran pretty hot, but I'm sure I can maintain my hourly rate in the long term /sarcasm

I think I am better than most of the regs at my casino, not all, but most. I'll post another stat update once I have sufficient hours.
Maybe you should start you own thread, just a suggestion. In fact I might do the same since I just started logging hourly results as well.
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Old 04-03-2012, 12:06 PM   #1391
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Need more hours
I agree. I have a side job that interferes with the time that I would be playing poker. I take all the cash that I earn from it and put it into my roll, but it still keeps me away from the tables. It just happens that March/April are busy times of the year for the side job, so I don't get to play as much. But I should be able to put a lot of time in during the month of May. I am going to Vegas Memorial Day Weekend, so that it will be at least 50 hours or so at the table.
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Old 04-03-2012, 12:50 PM   #1392
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Originally Posted by boltyou View Post
Hey guys, I need a sanity check before going forward with my plan.

Recently, I got laid off from my job. Meh, happens. My wife's got a reasonable income, and we have insurance, and could probably live solely off her income, although it would take some lifestyle adjustments (her annual income is around $60k).

However, given that I don't plan to leech off her income for the rest of our lives, I'm thinking about playing poker full-time. However, having a wife and living expenses that would cover everything is a nice safety
net.

I've been playing $1/$2 for a while (about 500 hours) and my win rate is around 8bb/hr. Due to being busy with my previous job, I have been unable to play on any Friday or Saturday nights; all of this is weekday play.

However, when I've taken shots at $2/$5, I've found that:

1 - The worst players are still just as bad.
2 - The worst players are willing to buy in for full and have no problem losing their money; I've found that there's a lot less scared money by the fish. The scared money is usually at the $1/$2 tables.
3 - The best players are much, much better at $2/$5.
4 - The rake is the same at $2/$5.

I've been thinking of moving up to $2/$5 full-time, given the following assumptions:

$15k bankroll (30 buyins) is sufficient.

I can beat the $2/$5 for 5bb/hr, especially if I can play Friday/Saturdays, which I had not previously been able to do.

500 hours, while not a huge sample size, gives me a rough idea if I'm a winning or losing player, and adjusting downwards of 3bb/hr is a realistic adjustment.

I will not improve my win rate over time.

I've read every post in this thread and I've tried to get a sense of what people are making, it's hard to know how many hours people are playing per week and if I'm looking at the top 3% of winners. Few people are coming in and saying, "Well, I'm breaking even after two years of play," even though I'm pretty sure there are tons of those people out there, too.

Is this a pie-in-the-sky dream? I'm basically projecting my financial situation based on these assumptions. Right now, I'm playing poker while I look for another job so at the moment I'm not losing out on income while I look, but playing full-time is certainly very appealing to me. I'm trying to be conservative, while also being realistic (the last assumption that my win rate will not improve reflects that; hopefully I do improve, but I'm not even factoring that in. Any higher win rate would be a freeroll if I look at it this way).

If you think I'm being crazy/unrealistic about any of this, please let me know. I'm mostly worried about my sample size, honestly. 500 hours seems a bit low, but good god it's hard to beat that rake and I'd like to move out of the stakes where that's less of a factor if I'm rolled for it (which I think I am).
i have been playing/coaching for a living for a little over 4 years now both live and online - hear are a few thoughts that come to mind for you to consider

i went "pro" when i got laid off too but i was already making more with poker than my job so it wasn't too hard

30 buyins might be OK as long as you have at least 1 year of living expenses in addition to your 15K

i like to take my "real winrate" to determine risk of ruin and determine needed BR. i figure my monthly nut, number of hours played and back that out of my actual WR(ie i make 60/hour but i know i will be spending half of that money on my bills so i use 30/hour as my WR for BR management decisions/calculations)

your spending(BR depletion) is a HUGE factor that most get wrong!

since i am on the BR issue - WR and spend rate are the critical factors so always work to improve your WR and control your expenses

grinding 40/hr per week is not the same as playing poker 10-15 hours per week - more stress, more sitting on your ass eating crap food, more exposure to germs, more nights away from wifey ... pickup a copy of Stress for Success by Loehr to help with this issue

don't ever lend money to poker players/gamblers!

on the sample size - since you don't have one you have to know why you are winning. if you understand why you are beating the game, see others mistakes, and keep working to improve your game you can feel confident that you are a winning player - all of this takes brutal self honest which isn't easy

can it be done - yes
is it worth doing - ?

Poker is the best part-time job but doing if full time is completely different

GL on the felt
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:33 AM   #1393
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

March Results
117.5 hours
34 total sessions
29 @ 1/2 or 1/3
5 @ 2/5
+$3272
~$27.73/hr
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Old 04-04-2012, 03:17 PM   #1394
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

march results
81.4 hrs
+$3,999 (lol!)

1/2: +$3986, 45.9hrs
2/5: +$1078, 13hrs
1/2plo: +$108, 8.9hrs
2/5nl - 1/2plo RxR: -$1,173, 13.6hrs

i run terrible in rxr
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Old 04-04-2012, 03:46 PM   #1395
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

rxr?
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Old 04-04-2012, 03:51 PM   #1396
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round by round
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:05 PM   #1397
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just started playing live cash games, mostly 1/2, one session of 2/5 which has a $300 buyin. I have had 9 winning sessions 1 break even and 0 losing. Small sample ldo:

+$1366
92 hours
$14.85 hourly (+$1/hr in comps)

also fairly sure i'm running a little below EV
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:12 PM   #1398
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Sorry, wth is round by round?
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:29 PM   #1399
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round by round is alternating between one game and another each round. in my case it's nlhe and plo.
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:30 PM   #1400
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where do you play at? that game sounds choice
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