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*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** *** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD ***
View Poll Results: Who will win the Durrrr Challenge II?
Tom "Durrrr" Dwan
1,577 41.89%
Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates
2,188 58.11%

08-31-2010 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skelm
Which when you think about it - makes sense. What other information does the majority of the community have to work by? You could argue CardRunners videos but given that we only have that content for one side of the matchup it's ultimately dead information.
Obviously Durrrr also holds some advantage in having completed (well almost) a challenge like this before. Although it isn't that far removed from a normal heads-up scenario you have to think that during the course of the 50k hands Durrrr would be able to draw on some of his experience from playing Antonius in a similar format.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:29 AM
Just a couple easy thoughts before the challenge begun made me think jungle could take this down
1 won quite big in 15kish hands hu vs durrrr (variance?)
2 durrrr is definitely beatable in the long run. See isildur1

Its not over yet but at this point jungleman is cleary the favorite
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:30 AM
For the 3rd time: anyone created an EV graph yet? Who's running better in all-ins?
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:38 AM
I think its obv Jungle had the edge, but I bet on durrrr anyway because I'm not going to root for someone who I dont have money on. GOGOGOGO DURRRR
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlitzPlayer
I think its obv Jungle had the edge, but I bet on durrrr anyway because I'm not going to root for someone who I dont have money on. GOGOGOGO DURRRR
So you thought Jungle had an edge and then bet on the other guy at evens I take it?
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by teddyFBI
For the 3rd time: anyone created an EV graph yet? Who's running better in all-ins?
No
We don't know


you're welcome
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skelm
Which when you think about it - makes sense. What other information does the majority of the community have to work by? You could argue CardRunners videos but given that we only have that content for one side of the matchup it's ultimately dead information.
Yeah true, although if someone was willing to read HSNL posts to research the bet I'd say that the majority of active high/nosebleed stake players wanting to bet on Jungleman is probably the best information someone can use. I'd still probably bet on durrrr anyway just because I'm a degen and would rather bet on who I'm rooting for (though I'm kinda going for both, I just want durrrr to win more by a slight margin).
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 09:51 AM
(i know this math is not right but its always fun to pretend and extrapolate information that is irrelevant)

jungleman's Winrate of 25.33bb/100 hands

50000/100 = 500 x 25.33 = 12665 bb's won x $400 = $5,066,000

5,066,000 + 1.5mil for winning

jungleman will be 6,566,000 million dollars richer

assume he has half of himself, so he wins 3.28million in 50k hands

ez game
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilikebeingalive
(i know this math is not right but its always fun to pretend and extrapolate information that is irrelevant)

jungleman's Winrate of 25.33bb/100 hands

50000/100 = 500 x 25.33 = 12665 bb's won x $400 = $5,066,000

5,066,000 + 1.5mil for winning

jungleman will be 6,566,000 million dollars richer

assume he has half of himself, so he wins 3.28million in 50k hands

ez game
jinxers gonna jinx
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:03 AM
A) I agree the j2o was a misclick, was just drunk and wording it poorly: should have said "if he vpips j2o it's a leak", was just tilted by people arguing about it
B) I personally think there's a huge difference between 10/20 and 25/50 fwiw
C) Calling with the Ah in jungle's spot is totally fine: durrrr is bluffing or has the nuts and jungle had the nuts. The chances if durrrr 3bet/calling the Kh are basically nonexistent
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyJ
Well obviously because he's been regarded as the sickest player for a very long time, and people will have faith that he can just crush anyone over the long run. Comments like Galfond saying he didn't ever think he'd ever see a player who would have an edge over durrrr in hunl help.

I mean he's been at the highest limits playable for basically as long as they've been around and he's stayed at the top the whole time. There's not much more of a testament to someone's game than crushing since basically the beginning of online poker. It's not that ridiculous that people will just automatically assume he's a favourite over anyone, especially if they don't have experience playing both him and jungle.

I'm not really saying my opinion on whose better though, I just think that's why some people would bet on durrrr.
People are having a hard time updating their beliefs (durrrr is the best) even with all those new evidences out there. For me, it was easy to believe that jungleman is much better at HUNL since I've been stalking him since his 25/50 days. The thing is that when durrrr is moving up and crushing NL, the players he's playing against are way worse than those that jungleman is playing, and durrrr hasn't even been playing much HUNL lately. Clearly, jungleman should be the favorite even before the match started.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:07 AM
I wish they could start the match over at zero so that I could bet durrrr at + odds.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilikebeingalive
(i know this math is not right but its always fun to pretend and extrapolate information that is irrelevant)

jungleman's Winrate of 25.33bb/100 hands

50000/100 = 500 x 25.33 = 12665 bb's won x $400 = $5,066,000

5,066,000 + 1.5mil for winning

jungleman will be 6,566,000 million dollars richer

assume he has half of himself, so he wins 3.28million in 50k hands

ez game
If anybody wants to bet the over on 6,566,000 I'll lay 2:1 up to 20k
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend
If anybody wants to bet the over on 6,566,000 I'll lay 2:1 up to 20k
I would've bet if you agreed with 50k :/




More seriously... what kinda odds would be decent for jungle to win over $2 million?
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:18 AM
I think I'm going to simply block NVG on my router, the idiocy is too much to bare..

People saying durrrr isn't even that good now looking at these results :\ WTF are you talking about? Did you just start with poker or something?

Jesus christ.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:19 AM
man, signing off as Jesus is the height of arrogance imo.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zuk1
People saying durrrr isn't even that good now looking at these results :\ WTF are you talking about? Did you just start with poker or something?

Jesus christ.
Aside from Martonas, please name players Durrr has convincingly beaten in HU NLH.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zuk1
I think I'm going to simply block NVG on my router, the idiocy is too much to bare..

People saying durrrr isn't even that good now looking at these results :\ WTF are you talking about? Did you just start with poker or something?

Jesus christ.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBlMr...eature=related
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend
If anybody wants to bet the over on 6,566,000 I'll lay 2:1 up to 20k
hustle lol
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masq
Aside from Martonas, please name players Durrr has convincingly beaten in HU NLH.
I can only hope this is a level
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace0fSpades
I can only hope this is a level
If you can list tons of players he has beaten in HU NLH convincingly it is. If you struggle to name players he has beaten in HU NLH then it's not.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 11:09 AM
You cannot really argue that 25bb/100 winrate is not a case of running hot. It would be hard to have a sustained winrate of 25 bb/100 vs a bad poker player. Vs a winning nosebleed player, its clearly running hot.

In the jman/boosted J HU Grudge match, they had 14 buy in swings over 2k hands, and they felt there was no big edge one way or the other.

Is Jungleman better? Quite possibly, or maybe Durrrr is, but you just cant make any sort of conclusion about the level of their play based on the results of 7k hands.

You can make a conclusion on the level of their play based on the plays they make. Hopefully Phil Galfond, FWF, etc will continue to comment on hands and points out when someone is making bad plays.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by solinar
You cannot really argue that 25bb/100 winrate is not a case of running hot. It would be hard to have a sustained winrate of 25 bb/100 vs a bad poker player. Vs a winning nosebleed player, its clearly running hot.

In the jman/boosted J HU Grudge match, they had 14 buy in swings over 2k hands, and they felt there was no big edge one way or the other.

Is Jungleman better? Quite possibly, or maybe Durrrr is, but you just cant make any sort of conclusion about the level of their play based on the results of 7k hands.

You can make a conclusion on the level of their play based on the plays they make. Hopefully Phil Galfond, FWF, etc will continue to comment on hands and points out when someone is making bad plays.
You won't see either of these two making "bad" plays
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 11:21 AM
Masq you should probably clarify that you mean in the last year or two, or whatever timeframe. Otherwise he's likely to just stick to his omg he's won a lot of money wtf are you talking about argument.
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote
08-31-2010 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uistbhoy
man, signing off as Jesus is the height of arrogance imo.
ROFL
*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** Quote

      
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