pocket AA 6 Times in on night it must be rigged.

I once saw a player receive pocket aces 6 times in 8 or 9 hands.

I lost 13 times with aces in one stretch before finally winning with them. Not 13 hands in a row 13 aces in a row

Obviously rigged.

We did the maths at the time - it should happen about once in every 25b hands. Hence, that seems about right (and also, it should have probably happened more than once)

I don't get anything near as likely as 1 in 25 billion for this.

6 aces in 9 hands:

(1/221)^6 * (220/221)^3 * (9!/6!3!) ~ (1/221)^6 * 84 = about 1 in 1.4 trillion.

6 aces in 8 hands:

~ (1/221)^6 * 8!/6!2! = about 1 in 4.1 trillion.

The chances of this ever happening in the history of poker are not quite negligible, but very low.

I may well have misremembered. Are you sure that you have the right number of permutations?

They are combinations, not permutations.

If we have nine hands, six of which are aces and three are not, the number of different arrangements is 9! / [(9-3)! * 3!] = 9*8*7/6 = 84.

Hmm, though even if you had used permutations, you should have 6/1.4 trillion as the probability, or 1 in 230 billion or so, so most likely you just misremembered.

Deah Pooka Jeanyusays,

I no playa onna duh Po-kuh Stahs cuz I bee thu tied uve geddin badness ove beets. I gowe playa onna duh Full Tilta Poka bee cuz daye can deel duh fay gaym wenz daye doan havv duh dume sawitch onna me.

Sinseeruhlee,

Donko

Donko, dude I can't figure you out. You clearly have a head on your shoulders but you alternate between someone who really wants to figure out if something is really wrong and a rigtard who just trusts his instincts.

I'm not saynig don't go to FT, or stay on stars, I don't really care. But did you ever actually do any real analysis of your hands or play? Did you do any analysis of how often your hands are holding up, etc?

Bad beats are part of the game, and really you should be happy for them: it means you got your money in good. A good player will always get more bad beats than he gives out. You should more in those pots than you lose. And if that's not the case: prove it. Do some analysis with a decent sample size and let us know the results if something is fishy!

OK, this thread is huge (I can't read it all and I don't know which was the hand history study that was often refered in the last few pages of this thread), but still: All former examples were based on a DB of about 300m hands. I've just imported a new one of about 600m hands. If you have particular ideas of how you want to check for riggness over such [big] DB, let me know and I can give that a try and post back the results.

[x] Tk1133 posts in this thread.
[x] IndianaV8 posts in this thread.
[x] Sparks will fly.
[x] Entertainment for all.

Indiana, Spadebidder has done some pretty intereting analysis with your database.

I look forward to running my studies on the new database. I have several things prepared that haven't been previewed here yet, which should be pretty interesting.

Glad you could join us....

Perhaps, Indiana, you could show the results to everybody.

this was like a battle of religion vs normal thinking ppl

fird on 536rd page fu op!

I bet Spade has done some pretty interesting research on Indiana's forums too.

Indiana, the few times "you" actually decided to "personally" play online, what is your opinion on this subject matter?

Indiana how did that one site violate your TOS before?

Ok, I've changed my mind on the tk vs indiana thing being entertaining.

Tk, you got as complete a victory as you're ever going to get on 2+2 in this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/55...banned-564266/.

Continuing the battle will amount to nothing, so I would let it drop. I'm on record in other threads being against Indiana's botting activities, but the database is without question extremely useful and of paramount importance in this thread of all threads on this site.

Time to let it go IMO.

I asked a serious question. I wasn't stirring up anything, I actually ommitted certain phrases so it didn't look like I was being condescending or rude. He actually has the means and inteligence to give a str8 answer. I am glad to see he understood and has posted helpful input in other threads.

Hi,
I was just being silly.

I am going through my hand histories manually, what I am noticing is that I am getting bounced out of tournaments very often with the best hand. There is not enough of a sample size to show you guys yet. This to me still feels like I am the most unlucky Charlie Brown I know or...something is wrong or manipulated in the programming. I dont have proof at this point and am hoping that it is just an ugly swing of standard deviation...

If there was a way to get some stats on how often players go bust in tournaments with over pairs or a very dominant lead. (2-8 outers dropping, etc). This would be interesting to me. If sites are going to rig, they are probably going to skim instead of gouge, so looking at the situation from 10,000 feet above may not give us anything but "Within Statistical Range of Norm". I just think it would be smarter for them to manipulate the outcome in places and at the frequency that could be explained away by saying "Standard Deviation or Variance." I am not a math guy, so I am sorry I cant be more help on exactly what you should do.

Wait. You mean being a 60% favorite doesn't win 100% of the time?

Less than 60% of the time...
The question that I need to answer for myself over a larger sample is how much less and is this within acceptable ranges of variance.

Question for you? Which site do you work for?