Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > > >

Discussion of Poker Sites General discussion of online poker sites.

View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,444 34.94%
No 5,522 56.02%
Undecided 892 9.05%
Voters: 9858. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-16-2009, 10:08 AM   #10501
jukofyork
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
jukofyork's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Trollstopia, UK
Posts: 11,610
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s



Juk
jukofyork is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:10 AM   #10502
Daleroxxu
veteran
 
Daleroxxu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,258
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Quote:
Originally Posted by ******* View Post
If people keep crying wolf like this, how will we ever know when a genuinely stupid person is posting?
when Mikael_DH makes a new thread
Daleroxxu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:30 AM   #10503
Nofx Fan
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,632
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroBob View Post
I was 100% thinking the same thing before I got to your post.

My post was going to be (and still is) "PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't merge this one!!!!"

Been a long time since one of the "OMG RNG" threads actually made me laugh out loud as I was reading it. This one is amazing in so many ways.
Yea, and basically I never get to see these anymore since they started that thread months ago. I don't visit the thread, but I'm somewhat nostalgic about the ones we used to get randomly poping up in the zoo. I guess you could say I even miss them a bit
Nofx Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:39 AM   #10504
repod
newbie
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 44
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marina Messenger View Post
We aren't saying that online poker is rigged. Trying to help you make money by showing where is best for you to go for your own particular game plan.

If you are a LAG like Patrik Antonius you will probably do better at Party Poker or Stars because you will get more Group 5-8 hands and know how to outplay players on the flop with their similar hand ranges.

If you are a TAG like Harrington then FTP or UB is probably better for you as you will know how to get value from your range of bigger hands you are dealt.

The Hand Groups used were all from Sklansky Hold'Em book, btw.
How long have you been playing poker? Also is that Blue Magic you and your boyfriend are smoking?
repod is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 02:13 PM   #10505
Leyxia
centurion
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 105
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

I agree with the crying wolf thing.
Leyxia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 04:34 PM   #10506
Elbow Jobertski
adept
 
Elbow Jobertski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,089
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

This is the first time in forever that I've seen a reference to the Sklansky hand groups.

Is that from HFAP? Or is there some other book about SNGs or at least no-limit with new groupings?

If it is from HFAP or the origninal hold'em poker books, using limit hand rankings to judge quality of starting hands in a low stakes NL SNG isn't quite as bad as the sample size, but up there.
Elbow Jobertski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 05:26 PM   #10507
PJ222
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 54
Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weevil99 View Post
I took the OP to mean that he failed to pair his non-pair hole cards by the river "31 freakin percent" of the time, while he expected this to happen only 17.4% of the time.

And that makes even less sense, since it should actually happen

44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 = 51.3% of the time,

which means he's running so hot that we'd have to consider whether the site was actually rigged in his favor.

TBH, I can't figure out what he was trying to say.
I'm not going to comment on every post individually, I'm lumping them here. I double checked everything and re-ran everything for 2 hours, mostly because the statistics are "impossible". But everything is in line with PT, and there are no mistakes.

Any other comments besides "I think he made a mistake in calcuations" or possibly "think he is lieing" are invalid. For example : People who say "not big enough sample" or "running really bad" or "playing wrong" do not understand statistics. If I was "playing bad" with these statistics I'd have busted out, lost my house and car long ago.

As for your particular response, since you think I made a mistake or meant something different then what I stated.... I already gave parameters in the original post and follow ups. I don't have the stats in front of me, nor do I feel like going back and finding the OP since it makes no difference. I believe total was about flop maybe 15-18%????? Anyway a specific # of hands of those 15-18% are already paired. Around 4% of the 18%. Anyway, as stated previously, I did not filter. I took only final hand values, which includes the board pairing itself and my hands.

so again I reinterate. 31% of the time no pair. Of the 69% includes board pairing, hole cards are paired, or hit a better hand. Obviously the vast majority of the 31% are played short handed or HU or 6h + were checked on turn / river. Otherwise I would have been in the poor house a long time ago.

Last edited by PJ222; 11-16-2009 at 05:40 PM.
PJ222 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 06:05 PM   #10508
Pyromantha
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,228
Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post

so again I reinterate. 31% of the time no pair. Of the 69% includes board pairing, hole cards are paired, or hit a better hand. Obviously the vast majority of the 31% are played short handed or HU or 6h + were checked on turn / river. Otherwise I would have been in the poor house a long time ago.
Yes but your expected number, 17.4%, is completely wrong because in your OP you wrote

Quote:
Here are the stats of hands that made (or saw), the river, or opponents folded on the turn. Compared to statistical probability. Lots of short handed and HU.
Obviously if you include some hands opponents folded on the turn that is going to reduce the amount of pair or better hands you make, because you are only seeing six cards and 17.4% is the expected amount for seven cards.

Additionally the way you and your opponent play both affect the number of rivers that are seen where you hold a pair or better. If you always push if you have a pair or better on the turn, and check no-pair always then the hands that get to the river are extremely weighted against pairs (extreme example but you get the idea).

To be rigorous, look at unpaired hands that were all-in preflop. See how many make a pair or better by the river. Calculate how many should have based on how many of those unpaired hands were suited and how many unsuited, you will probably not be able to correct for straights unless you have a lot of time.

To be honest I suspect your stats are just totally made up, or you can't use PokerTracker properly, but on the off chance neither is the case the above will give you an unbiased statistic.

Last edited by Pyromantha; 11-16-2009 at 06:10 PM.
Pyromantha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 06:26 PM   #10509
spadebidder
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,906
Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
To be honest I suspect your stats are just totally made up, or you can't use PokerTracker properly, but on the off chance neither is the case the above will give you an unbiased statistic.
Regardless of playing styles or removal effects, I guarantee that he didn't have 50K Hold'em hands that saw the river and 31% of those did not make a pair or better. That is a mistake or a lie.

PJ222, I'll bet you $500 right now that you cannot provide a contiguous set of Hold'em hands to me for verification, which have that record (from a well-known poker site). I want all the hands to examine, not just the ones you say saw the river. I'll use my own methods to make sure the histories aren't tampered.

Edit : also, if you are playing games with words and saying "no pair" to mean literally no pair, when your chart clearly shows that you meant "no pair or BETTER" then that deception obviously doesn't count, even though it still wouldn't be close to 31%.

Last edited by spadebidder; 11-16-2009 at 06:50 PM.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 08:45 PM   #10510
xBornToLosex
disturbing
 
xBornToLosex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Free SPB
Posts: 8,848
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

This has to be an amazing level. Someone smart enough to come up with this has to be smart enough to realize that it doesn't make sense at all.
xBornToLosex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 08:54 PM   #10511
DonkeyFlop
banned
 
DonkeyFlop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 929
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Quote:
Originally Posted by xBornToLosex View Post
This has to be an amazing level. Someone smart enough to come up with this has to be smart enough to realize that it doesn't make sense at all.
On my list of things I hate most, your avatar is neck and neck with mosquitos and cancer.
DonkeyFlop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:07 PM   #10512
leviathan74
veteran
 
leviathan74's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,184
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem View Post
OP,

You can email PokerStars and get your hand distribution for the last 4-6 weeks emailed to you, along with details such as how far each hand is from the mean.
Does PS really do that?
leviathan74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:08 PM   #10513
leviathan74
veteran
 
leviathan74's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,184
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ballerblockn View Post
go flip a coin 5 times each in your bedroom, bathroom, living room, and kitchen and ship me the results. I'M VERY INTERESTED. Although, I think that the kitchen is a clear cut winner for producing more "heads."
It is quite important to know the room you re going to get more head. Heads I mean.
leviathan74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:23 PM   #10514
Marina Messenger
stranger
 
Marina Messenger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Zurich
Posts: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elbow Jobertski View Post
This is the first time in forever that I've seen a reference to the Sklansky hand groups.

Is that from HFAP? Or is there some other book about SNGs or at least no-limit with new groupings?

If it is from HFAP or the origninal hold'em poker books, using limit hand rankings to judge quality of starting hands in a low stakes NL SNG isn't quite as bad as the sample size, but up there.
It is a little yellow book with a gun on the front. "Hold'Em Poker" by David Sklansky. A 2+2 title
Marina Messenger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:27 PM   #10515
Monteroy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14,056
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

When the real stats guys get angry - watch out!

This guy completely believes everything he is saying. He just has no idea what he is talking about so while he thinks he is telling the truth the reality is that he is lying.

That's why he is so hostile (though on rare occasions that is also the reaction of a complete con artist as a means of distraction, but there is nothing really to gain here via a con).

There is a 0% chance he will take you up on your offer to analyze his hands. There is also a 0% chance the data he totally believes in is an accurate reflection of what he actually believes once it is analyzed in a proper manner.

Sorry, 0.0% - that sounds more official and takes into account removal effects and self selection bias and all the other things.

Lots of players lie to themselves and others out of habit when they run bad. We even saw that when that Moon guy lied to his wife about his hand on TV. He probably believed it when he said it at the time as well.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:35 PM   #10516
apefish
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
apefish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: gotta put this one on caesars
Posts: 14,625
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

hate the message not the messenger
apefish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:49 PM   #10517
HeavyTrev
adept
 
HeavyTrev's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,189
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

Can we get more stats and details on your findings here OP? I'm certain once your database is unveiled the poker community will see the error in originally mocking you.
HeavyTrev is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 11:52 PM   #10518
Bill Haywood
Pooh-Bah
 
Bill Haywood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: May you live to throw 1,000 shoes
Posts: 4,895
Re: Study into "random" number generators and how you can be a winner by playing at "luckier" s

OP, do you have some suggestions on how to take advantage of this information, maybe some links or something to be sure I go to a site with the best RNG?

Or a report. Do you have a special report I can purchase?
Bill Haywood is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 01:33 AM   #10519
PJ222
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 54
Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Regardless of playing styles or removal effects, I guarantee that he didn't have 50K Hold'em hands that saw the river and 31% of those did not make a pair or better. That is a mistake or a lie.

PJ222, I'll bet you $500 right now that you cannot provide a contiguous set of Hold'em hands to me for verification, which have that record (from a well-known poker site). I want all the hands to examine, not just the ones you say saw the river. I'll use my own methods to make sure the histories aren't tampered.

Edit : also, if you are playing games with words and saying "no pair" to mean literally no pair, when your chart clearly shows that you meant "no pair or BETTER" then that deception obviously doesn't count, even though it still wouldn't be close to 31%.

No way to authenticate without hand id's. I'm not willing to give my screen name. Nor do I trust your intentions, especially since you accuse me of deception. Nor do I believe you'd actually pay me $500. /wo hand id's there is no way for you to "authenticate" anything.

Pyromantha does have some insight into the 17% statistic, but fails to take into account that only approx 1/5 are played. 1/5 of those start as pairs which approximately wash. The same with suited connectors, one gappers, etc..... All baseline stats assume playing every hand. 100%, not 20%.
PJ222 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 03:17 AM   #10520
Josem
human chemical weapon
 
Josem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Getting Trolled
Posts: 17,957
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Can you at least tell us what site you experienced this with?
Josem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 04:48 AM   #10521
Pyromantha
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,228
Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
No way to authenticate without hand id's. I'm not willing to give my screen name. Nor do I trust your intentions, especially since you accuse me of deception. Nor do I believe you'd actually pay me $500. /wo hand id's there is no way for you to "authenticate" anything.
Okay then if we're just posting unauthenticated (read made up) stats, I'm even unluckier than you. I played 588,297 hands of Hold'em on a major site and got dealt 72o 588,297 times.

You can't accuse mine of being ridiculous because it is so close in likelihood to yours (both 0 to as many decimal places as you can type in your lifetime).

50000 hands seeing river.
Chance of handing making worse than 'one pair or better' after river = 17.4%

Mean = 8700
Variance = 8700*0.826 = 7186.2
Standard deviation = 84.77

You observed 31% no pairs = 15500
Differs from expected by (15500-8700)/84.77 = roughly 80 standard deviations away.

I would go and recheck your methodology.

Last edited by Pyromantha; 11-17-2009 at 05:01 AM.
Pyromantha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 04:59 AM   #10522
Pyromantha
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,228
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem View Post
Can you at least tell us what site you experienced this with?
I think FTP as he wrote this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222
If you really think that..... either your not very bright or your an adovcate of FT poker (Red Kings).
Pyromantha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 05:26 AM   #10523
Josem
human chemical weapon
 
Josem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Getting Trolled
Posts: 17,957
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

But Red Kings is another poker site?
Josem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 06:08 AM   #10524
Pyromantha
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,228
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I'd guess that he meant Pocket Kings (in fact I didn't even notice he hadn't said that until you pointed it out!).
Pyromantha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2009, 08:34 AM   #10525
NFuego20
Pooh-Bah
 
NFuego20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 4,295
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Same story. Rigtard claims to have proof. Rigtard provides none. Reputable poster offers money if proof is provided. Rigtard backs down, makes weak excuses instead of trying to find a real solution.

It's a shame, we could've had the first ever case of proven rigging, but it was not to be.
NFuego20 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive