would be funny if Trump won. might even come back and laugh.

Well we'll see.

I'm not a professional so I can always reload.

Also some of it is just taking a 1% BR boost on Clinton to win Illinois.

But the last euro of my BR I used to enter a $1 MTT, which I won, as well as some other placings so I was back to 100 again. Invested more of that in Clinton (Michigan and Colorado) obv

Trump now favourite in North Carolina 1.91 to 1.98.

Well the odds say he's a 7-8 outer. I would say he's more like a 4 outer. We've all seen gutshots hit on the river before but I still think its a good bet.

I also think the odds for e.g. PA, MI or CO at 1.2, comparative to the odds for her to win the electoral college are particularly good. I can see scenarios where she wins MI but not the election and few scenarios where she wins the election but not MI.

I'll be pretty disappointed in American voters if it isn't a clear cut Clinton victory. I mean, I get the dissatisfaction with "business as usual", so I don't think less of people for voting for Trump, but I'll be a little sad if the voters as a whole can't identify the lesser of two evils (IMO of course).

But whatever happens, I hope all ends well for our southern neighbours. By which I mean that 4 years from now, I hope most of you aren't regretting whatever happens tomorrow.

I believe Trump has a very strong shot at winning. There are remarkable parallels with the Brexit campaign. I think there is a very large number of relatively moderate voters put off by Clinton's 'beltway-insider-POTUS-at-all-costs' attitude.

I also think that there are a lot of recent immigrants who have not forgotten that all politicians will say more or less anything to get elected. The US just hasn't had the Trump flavor (bluster, madness, a dusting of lies) in a few decades, and has only had the Clinton flavor (something, something, a dusting of lies).

To many voters both candidates remain equally untrustworthy. Trump is a new but familiar kind of untrustworthy. In many parts of the world we are used to candidates like trump, and realize that he doesn't believe his own horrible rhetoric any more than Clinton believes her pandering rhetoric.

The only hope is that in 2020 we realize that the selection process for candidates is a little suboptimal.

I get the entire drain the swamp thing, but his choices for Supreme Court are going to make it harder to pass legislation that limits campaign money from large corporations.

At least Clinton wants a Court that allows Congress to govern.

Sure can't disagree with that! Given some of the stunning things Trump has said, the fact that it's even a race still speaks volumes about what the voters think of Clinton and those they consider to be career politicians in general.

I actually think there's less difference between the candidates than most people think. Both in terms of what they would even like to do themselves and also in terms of what they'll anyway be able to get through Congress and the Supreme Court. I'm not sure the election even changes the identity of the next country to get bombed. I just see it as a good betting opportunity.

As a British person who would have voted for Brexit if I still lived there but would probably lean Democrat in the US, I don't really see the connection with Brexit except that Farage has an opportunity to make some money campaigning for Trump. I'm maybe old school, but I still believe that the one who wins the debates ought to win the election. In the Brexit referendum the Leave side smashed Remain in the debates - there is a bounce in the polls for Leave if you look after the ITV debate on 9th June, and the Wembley Arena debate on 21st June was a bloodbath, though it doesn't show in the polls as it was right before the referendum. These days though the debate is never over, it hangs around on youtube continually being shared by decided voters and watched by undecided voters. The other thing is that Leave was leading in the polls till the news of the Jo Cox assassination introduced a "shy leaver" factor - short term news items change more what people say to pollsters rather than changing how e.g. a tenth of the entire population are actually going to vote (if you count 5% going from one option to undecided and another 5% going from undecided to supporting the other option) so you have to discount moves as a direct result of news.

If there is a parallel with Brexit at all then the more obvious one is with Clinton - the betting and polling consensus awarded the debate wins to her, she had the long-term lead in the polls until the email thing tarded it up.

BTW I said earlier that I would post a tip on election day. Here it is and it actually is based on a parallel to Brexit: after the exit polls come out (whether private or TV) the betting lines on the vote shares will move to match it and generally tighten around that number (i.e. shorter odds for it to be on the nose and longer odds for it to be a long way off in either direction). There are two reasons to think Trump will beat the exit poll though, related to early and absentee voting which the exit polls can't pick up: 1st - Previous research indicates that elderly white non-Hispanic people are disproportionately more likely to vote early or by post and 2nd - some of the early votes will have been cast during the period of the revival of the email scandal, so Trump voters will have been more likely to send off the ballot with Clinton voters adopting more of a wait and see approach.

I did the same bet on the Brexit referendum (older voters are also more likely to vote by post in the UK) the exit polls were all private but the betting markets moved to around a 53-47 split in favour of remain, so I bet on leave to beat 47.5%, which of course it did by 5%. I'm not saying you should do something stupid like bet your entire poker bankroll on it, but if you want an election night bet then take the over on Trump's vote share after the exit polls come out. I was going to post that after I'd already got the money in but obviously my bankroll is all on the 17th-25th states most likely to vote Clinton.

Current odds:
Clinton 1.25 = 1/4 = -400
Trump 5.0 = 4/1 = +400

Trump back on 9 outs.

NC Dem 1.92 Rep 1.96
FL Dem 1.56 Rep 2.72
CO Dem 1.33 Rep 3.85

God, I wish I lived somewhere where I could bet on Clinton at 1:4. She has so many different paths to 270 and he has basically one. And if he loses either NC or FL, it's game over and I can go to bed early. Even if he somehow manages to win both, she's not done and that just means that the race goes longer into the night.

My big concern going into tonight will be with watching the Senate races to see if the Republicans manage to hold on to control. I'm hoping that Hillary's "coat strings" manage to flip at least the four seats needed to rest control. (At least until Virginia's special election next Nov. to replace Tim Kaine.) It would be even better if they could pick up five.

Yea, it should be a landslide for Clinton - I think she's a terrible candidate for POTUS, but at least she's remotely qualified for the job. The alternative is basically telling a random 8-year old to fly a jumbo-jet (no offence to the average 8-year old).

Speaking of which:

Behind the Scenes of the Trump Campaign
Trevor reveals why Donald Trump's speeches sound like they were written by a temperamental child.
http://www.cc.com/video-clips/g6ce9k...trump-campaign

Off to bed - will be up when California poll close.

Odds
Clinton 1.21 = 4/19 = -476
Trump 5.7 = 47/10 = +470

For people not familiar with the way of writing odds below, imagine you leave 1 dollar in betting shop, the number below is the total amount you collect if you win, including the original stake, so 2.0 would be evens.

Centre of the markets on vote share:
Clinton 47-49.99
Trump 44-46.99
though still only about a 40 percent chance of it being in those ranges.

Clinton EC votes
0-179 60.0
180-209 65.0
210-239 26.0
240-269 10.0
270-299 4.9
300-329 2.84 (midpoint)
330-359 4.4
360-538 15.5

Clinton states won (DC doesn't count)

0-21 9.2
22-23 8.6
24-25 3.3
26-27 3.55
28-29 6.2
30-50 10

- but the middle is right on the border between 25 and 26.

AZ D 3.35 R 1.39
CO D 1.21 R 5.2
FL D 1.48 R 3
MI D 1.39 R 3.1
NV D 1.27 R 4.2
NH D 1.33 R 3.25
NC D 1.90 R 1.94
OH D 2.8 R 1.51
PA D 1.23 R 4.8
WI D 1.17 R 5.8
Utah D 15 R 1.22 McMullin 6.2

States called so far by Betfair gamblers (you can't bet on these results even at odds of 1.01 = 1/100 = -10000)



http://www.270towin.com/maps/gj3BO

(of course there is no separate market for Nebraska congressional districts so they are all down as Trump for now)

Saw something fun on the the internet - looks like a bunch of smallish chains are giving out free coffee and cookies, and other stuff to people who have voted today ... there's more stuff listed in the link for anyone who may be interested in picking up a snack to go with tonight's election coverage

Quote:

http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-...et-you-w449136

Free Stuff Your ‘I Voted’ Sticker Will Get You

Besides heading to the polls because it’s the right thing to do, there are some other surprising benefits to getting your “I voted” sticker. Voters can snag free doughnuts, pizza, queso and much more for flashing their sticker or simply coming out to these businesses on Tuesday, November 8. Here are some of the freebies for everyone to take advantage of on Election Day 2016!

7-Eleven

Download the convenience store chain’s mobile app to get a free coffee at participating locations.

Nestlé Toll House Café

Any customer wearing an “I Voted” sticker will be rewarded with a free chocolate chip cookie from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. on Tuesday.

Krispy Kreme

They’re offering free donuts at participating locations to anyone who shows their “I Voted” sticker.

Still haven't adjusted to how dark it gets so early now - usually like to take the garbage down to the curb before the sun goes down ... was a bit of a stretch today ...

Trump and Hillary AK vs 55 the state of florida. super close right now.

Clinton was down to 1.08 earlier.

Now
Clinton 2.94 =1.94/1 = +194
Trump 1.5 = 1/2 = -200

Betfair have Trump 1/3 - 3/1 favourite just now (1.34 - 4.0) ...

Crazy! Also odds on Mike Pence are non-zero now, is there any way they could bypass Trump and choose him instead? Odd to have non-zero odds on something that seems impossible.

Trump into 1/4 as I typed that, wtf is going on with the world...

Things are looking really bad for Hillary right now ... wow ......

1.14 for Trump and dropping...

He was at 8.00 earlier

We had money bet on Michelle Obama to win with those kinds of odds recently.

States called by Betfair gamblers.



http://www.270towin.com/maps/pREp6

NM called by networks but not Betfair yet (though its 1.01 for Dems)

As for me - well at least the part of my BR on Illinois has survived

I think the polls are missing a few % of people not proud of voting Trump and stayed quiet.

The undecisive

NY Times had Hillary's chances of winning at 80% this morning. They now have Trump at 92% to win.

lol 'murica

Trump 1.24 Clinton 5.3

But with Michigan 1.41 Republican and Colorado called for Clinton.

Congrats to all the people who bet on Trump at 4-1+

Florida just called for Trump...