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NVG's one and only US Presidential Election Thread, Featuring Jamie Gold Betting Strategy NVG's one and only US Presidential Election Thread, Featuring Jamie Gold Betting Strategy

11-10-2016 , 02:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by harkin
Hispanics.
She only got 65% of their votes despite everything going on in the campaign. The narrative is that she failed to win white women at all, or Hispanics by enough, or to turn out enough blacks, but maybe that, and the likely results in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, show that left-wing politicians need to abandon their obsession with identity politics and get back to focusing on policies that address the economic situation of people of whatever race who vote for them - even if those policies are politically incorrect.
11-10-2016 , 04:31 AM
Ds will never abandon identity politics, it's all they have.
11-10-2016 , 04:57 AM
Remaining states:

AZ D 120 R no available
MI D 36 R 1.01
NH D 1.01 R 34

Trump electoral college votes
270-299 21
300-329 1.02

Next president to lose popular vote
Yes 1.01
No 40
11-10-2016 , 04:59 AM
Can anyone explain why AZ hasn't been called? It's at 100% counted and Trump is up 4%.
11-10-2016 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UsedToBeGood
Also, Pence is the nut low when it comes to online gambling. Repubs have full control of all three branches, this is Adelson's wet dream. RAWA will pass with flying colors and be signed by President Trump early next year. Dustin Gouker, an analyst for this stuff, tweeted "we are way closer to a federal ban on online poker than the obverse."

I seriously doubt I will be playing on Ignition/ACR a year from now.
Is Trump being elected seriously this bad for online poker? I was sort of just amused by everything until I read this.
11-10-2016 , 05:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulenc3
Is Trump being elected seriously this bad for online poker? I was sort of just amused by everything until I read this.
He's got significantly bigger priorities than gambling, wouldn't expect him to think about that for even a second.
11-10-2016 , 06:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
I'm certainly no fan of the result, but all these anti-Trump protests are ridiculous, especially if they don't start dwindling pretty quickly. He didn't help with his nasty rhetoric throughout his campaign, but the people have spoken, now it's time to give the man a chance. You had your day to vent, I guess - it's over now.

How many of those protesters were volunteering for the Democrats leading up to the election? Wouldn't have taken many of them doing some work getting out the vote in a few key states, and they'd have had nothing to protest about today. But it's much easier to get pissed off and yell slogans on the street after you get a result you didn't like than it would be to do some work before the election when your effort might've actually accomplished something productive, rather than widening the divide in their country.

Unfortunately, I think this is a symptom of a serious problem with political debate/disagreement these days. We see it here as well, but I think it's much worse in the US - little respect for opposing viewpoints, little willingness to see what others have in common, little desire to build bridges. Not a good road to go down - frankly, it's a scary road. And it's a problem that is massively amplified by social media.
Very well said Bobo.

I watched a University protest yesterday and saw hundreds of kids walking by chanting F-Trump... one on his walk by the camera said "this is democracy right here". What he should have realized is that he just viewed the pinnacle of democracy a few hours earlier.

Trump deserves his chance and we shall see what he does with it.
11-10-2016 , 06:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellno
He's got significantly bigger priorities than gambling, wouldn't expect him to think about that for even a second.
I think by inclination he would be very liberal on most social issues, except pluralism.

But he will also be quick to trade on these small potatoes issues, like pot, gambling, etc.
11-10-2016 , 06:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G
What he should have realized is that he just viewed the pinnacle of democracy a few hours earlier.
I thought Clinton had more votes? This is an example of a well functioning constitutional republic, not a democracy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G
Trump deserves his chance and we shall see what he does with it.
Precisely.
11-10-2016 , 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by inmyrav
I thought Clinton had more votes? This is an example of a well functioning constitutional republic, not a democracy.
Precisely.
When the goal is to win 270 electoral votes, the campaigns will work towards that goal. If the popular vote mattered, the strategies would have been significantly different and Trump would maybe have won the popular vote. We cannot know, so to say this isn't democracy is missing an important point.
11-10-2016 , 07:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly
LOL at anyone proclaiming or talking about HRC winning the popular vote, which is totally irrelevant.

America is a Constitutional Republic of Independent States. Each state has a number of electoral votes based on its population. This de-emphasizes the margin of victory in any one(s) state. So whether California votes 51/49 or 99/1, the winner-take-all Electoral Votes are the same.

Otherwise, states like California and Illinois alone could pick the president in every single election.
Correct. You would also adjust your campaign to focus on individual votes which mean more spending in large States while ignoring the small ones entirely.

Everyone knew the rules going in and played to them. To try to change the goal posts now reflects ignorance and immaturity which, sadly, has become the hallmark of today's Left.
11-10-2016 , 08:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly
LOL at anyone proclaiming or talking about HRC winning the popular vote, which is totally irrelevant.

America is a Constitutional Republic of Independent States. Each state has a number of electoral votes based on its population. This de-emphasizes the margin of victory in any one(s) state. So whether California votes 51/49 or 99/1, the winner-take-all Electoral Votes are the same.

Otherwise, states like California and Illinois alone could pick the president in every single election.
Untrue. Representation in the electoral college is based on the number of representatives each state sends to Congress. Much different. A state like Wyoming gets three times the number of electors - per person - as a large state like Califormia.

Wisconisin has 5.7 million people, and 10 electors. Vermont has 626,000 residents and 3 electors.

Also, the states can divvy up the electors to more than one candidate.
11-10-2016 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellno
When the goal is to win 270 electoral votes, the campaigns will work towards that goal. If the popular vote mattered, the strategies would have been significantly different and Trump would maybe have won the popular vote. We cannot know, so to say this isn't democracy is missing an important point.
Huh? Your last sentence is confusing. We aren't a democracy. We are a republic. Do you understand the difference?

It's early in the morning so maybe I'm just unable to understand your post right now but I don't get what you're trying to say.
11-10-2016 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
I'm certainly no fan of the result, but all these anti-Trump protests are ridiculous, especially if they don't start dwindling pretty quickly. He didn't help with his nasty rhetoric throughout his campaign, but the people have spoken, now it's time to give the man a chance. You had your day to vent, I guess - it's over now.
Over 140 million people voted Tuesday and they were the story...... then on Wednesday they went back to work, caring for their kids, trying to make their lives better, IOW getting back to basics.

But on CNN last night the story was about a thousand odd useful idiots who refuse to accept the outcome and decide to tax a few cities already strained resources by congregating into collective tantrums.

Once again CNN ignores the people who make the country work and concentrates on the rabble rousers who agree with their political agenda.

You really have to wonder if CNN even understands this is one of the reasons Trump won.
11-10-2016 , 09:47 AM
I wonder how many of the artists/famous people that were going to move to another country if Trump would win are packing their bags yet.
11-10-2016 , 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crumblepie
I wonder how many of the artists/famous people that were going to move to another country if Trump would win are packing their bags yet.
Only the ones that also want to play poker online.

p.s. -- DNEGS' meltdown on Twitter is making me happier than the money I won on the Election. For a poker player, he is a very sore loser.
11-10-2016 , 12:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly
LOL at anyone proclaiming or talking about HRC winning the popular vote, which is totally irrelevant.

America is a Constitutional Republic of Independent States. Each state has a number of electoral votes based on its population. This de-emphasizes the margin of victory in any one(s) state. So whether California votes 51/49 or 99/1, the winner-take-all Electoral Votes are the same.

Otherwise, states like California and Illinois alone could pick the president in every single election.
Quote:
Originally Posted by inmyrav
Untrue. Representation in the electoral college is based on the number of representatives each state sends to Congress. Much different. A state like Wyoming gets three times the number of electors - per person - as a large state like Califormia.

Wisconisin has 5.7 million people, and 10 electors. Vermont has 626,000 residents and 3 electors.

Also, the states can divvy up the electors to more than one candidate.
Every state gets 2 electoral votes to start with, representing one for each Senator, as every state has 2 Senators. Then added is 1 electoral vote for each member of the House of Representatives. The number of Representatives each state has is solely based on population.

So for the very smallest population states, you can say that having 2 electoral votes for each Senator will skew the population/electoral vote ratio compared to other states. This is the reason for your Vermont math example result. Vermont gets the minimum 3 electoral votes, 1 for each Senator and 1 for its single Representative in the House.

And States do not divide up General Election electoral votes proportionally. General election electoral votes are winner-take-all, unlike various distribution systems during each political party's primaries. There are a few states, like Maine and Nebraska, that award Electoral Votes to the winner of each congressional district in addition to the statewide winner. But all other states are winner-take-all.
11-10-2016 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crumblepie
I wonder how many of the artists/famous people that were going to move to another country if Trump would win are packing their bags yet.
http://conservativetribune.com/trump...celebs-ticked/
11-10-2016 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by restorativejustice
Only the ones that also want to play poker online.

p.s. -- DNEGS' meltdown on Twitter is making me happier than the money I won on the Election. For a poker player, he is a very sore loser.
Hahaha
11-10-2016 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by harkin
Over 140 million people voted Tuesday and they were the story...... then on Wednesday they went back to work, caring for their kids, trying to make their lives better, IOW getting back to basics.

But on CNN last night the story was about a thousand odd useful idiots who refuse to accept the outcome and decide to tax a few cities already strained resources by congregating into collective tantrums.

Once again CNN ignores the people who make the country work and concentrates on the rabble rousers who agree with their political agenda.

You really have to wonder if CNN even understands this is one of the reasons Trump won.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Was CNN supposed to report on the millions who didn't protest instead of the thousands that did?
11-10-2016 , 02:28 PM
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Spoiler:
LOL
11-10-2016 , 02:30 PM
AZ D 110 R not available
MI D 55 R 1.01
NH D not available R 55

So that's New Hampshire called for Democrats

Lame poker metaphor: Trump fist pumps as the pot is shipped to him.

2020 odds available now
Trump 2.92
Pence 6.2
Kaine 12.5
Booker 12.5
Clinton 10.5
Biden 12.5
Cuomo 10.5
Warren 10.5
Ryan 12.5
M. Obama 5.1
Sanders 12.5
Rubio 10.5
Bloomberg 10.5
Castro 10.5

It's a market still finding its prices - none of the above are available to lay at reasonable prices except Trump at 3.95 and M. Obama at 40.

I think the smart move here is to bet on Trump. Not necessarily because I want to make a 4 year bet but I think he'll be at lower odds than that at some point and I can take a matching bet the other way.
11-10-2016 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocket_zeros
I'm not sure I understand your point. Was CNN supposed to report on the millions who didn't protest instead of the thousands that did?
I have no problem with CNN showing a few minutes of the idiots declaring that they disagree with Obama and Hillary and do not respect the outcome of the American electoral process.

The problem I had is with making it the story of the night and dedicating more than three hours of visuals in what looked like a commercial to recruit more idiots.

They also forgot to show people calling for violence or for Trump to die. That of course would go against the theme that all these folks are peaceful.

They also didn't report that a community organizer who admitted fomenting violence at Trump rallies visited the White House 342 times.......(no way!).

http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/18/ex...use-342-times/

Also, a white man in Chicago with a Trump bumper sticker on his car was pulled from the vehicle and beaten yesterday. I did not see it on any network or cable news programs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnQNFBHHs6w

If this had been a black person beaten by a white mob it would have been the lead story on every news program.

I don't like Trump and I did not vote for him but I have a message for all the nitwits who are calling this the end of the world and that racism/fascism has won.......THAT'S NOT WHY YOU LOST.

You lost because Americans felt that the politicians representing them had no regard for their views/needs and the lapdog media that reported on them was presenting an almost completely fictional write-up on what was going down.

These protests were just like the BLM idiocy in Ferguson (where the cop was exonerated by all the evidence, even by Obamas' DOJ), an ignorant mob fueled by lies thinking they were doing something important instead of what they were really doing, propagating hate and ignorance.
11-10-2016 , 03:39 PM
lot of smart people in this thread. i like what im reading. and just to add we live in a democratic republic. we elect our officials but we also have a process to change the laws ourselves with ballot measures.

ALL HAIL EMPEROR TRUMP!!!!
11-10-2016 , 03:51 PM
Just read that about 10 million votes are still to be counted.

Safe bet that CNN is praying that Hillary's ~200,000 lead in the popular vote holds up, if only to give fuel to the butt-hurt/Soros-funded rioters.

      
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