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NVG's one and only US Presidential Election Thread, Featuring Jamie Gold Betting Strategy

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10-12-2016 , 11:09 PM

#401

fulltilt's#1 fan

banned

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 13

Amen. Go to info wars! LMAO The Clintons do Not belong in the White House Again! Get Real, Trump is better for America! Wish we could keep Obama, but cannot. Last thing on earth is the Clintons back again.

10-12-2016 , 11:30 PM

#402

gregorio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 37,479

Yes, this is the guy you want telling you how to vote.

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/stat...99197768810496

10-14-2016 , 05:16 PM

#403

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

No real change in the odds in the last few days

Clinton 1.19 = 4/21 = -526
Trump 6.4 = 32/5 = +540

So below are some other markets on the election. The implied halfway points are based on straightlining across the ranges so are not 100% accurate but I know a lot of Americans like gambling odds based on an over/under.

Turnout %
66-100 12.5
62-65.99 9
58-61.99 4.2
54-57.99 3.7
50-53.99 5.5
0-49.99 6.2

Implied mid point 55.33%

Democrat states won
0-21 8.8
22-23 14
24-25 13.5
26-27 7.2
28-29 3.35
30+ 2.78

Implied midpoint 28

Clinton electoral college
0-179 23
180-209 27
210-239 18.5
240-269 15
270-299 15.5
300-329 6.6
330-359 3.4
360+ 2.76

Implied midpoint 342

10-17-2016 , 06:26 PM

#404

Keruli

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 880

Quote:

Originally Posted by LektorAJ

Spoiler:

Not at a traditional sportsbook - though in a two-horse race like this you can just bet on the other candidate.

The smart way to bet though is at a betting exchange such as betfair, betdaq, smarkets, matchroom (some bitcoin based US-facing ones are also available apparently). You can "back" (i.e. bet on) the candidate or team you want - either at the odds offered by another user or request better odds (in that case it just sits on the exchange waiting for someone to take the bet) or you can also "lay" (i.e. do what a traditional bookie does) a candidate, either by taking a bet someone has already requested or offer shorter odds and see who picks them up.

When the thing finally settles you pay rake (ranging from 2% to 7% depending on the site) on your net winnings in the given market. So if you do Jamie Gold's trick of betting them both that I mentioned a few posts up, you pay 7% of the 12.50, not the full 1200.

This is what I see when I actually look at the betfair page for the election: In blue is money from people who want to be the bookie and offer odds - so those are opportunities to bet (the rightmost blue column is the closest equivalent to a traditional sportsbook). The money in pink is people who want to bet so these bets are available for us to take (for us to be the bookie).

At right you can see the results so far of my nosebleed degen betting on the November element of this election. The numbers in green or red under each candidate represent the outcome for me if the selection wins.

The numbers at the top are the "overround" of all the bets. 104.5% overstates it because the market is capped at 1000 (999/1) and there are a ton of candidates who have an implied chance of 0.1% but are actually completely out of it.

The odds are decimal - i.e they already include the return of stake, so 2.0 = evens, 3.0 = 2/1 = +200 in US odds.

EDIT: so if that isn't clear you could "lay" (take the other side of the bet) on Clinton at 1.21 instantly (e.g. risk $21 to profit $100 if she loses), or offer odds at 1.20 (i.e. risk $20 to win $100) in which case it queues behind the other people offering the same and will get taken maybe later today unless the market moves the other way in the meantime.

thanks a lot for the useful and detailed explanation! much appreciated.

10-18-2016 , 01:29 AM

#405

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

Bit of a ground gained by Trump.

Clinton 1.21 = 4/19 = -476
Trump 6.0 = 5/1 = +500

Lame poker simile: It's like Hold'em where the river is about to be dealt and Clinton's top pair top kicker needs to fade Trump's straight draw.

10-19-2016 , 03:51 PM

#406

Uh*Oh

adept

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 761

Jimmy Vaccaro Vegas bookie on the race today
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...agering-event/

10-19-2016 , 06:03 PM

#407

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

Betting website pays out $1 million on Clinton wagers

From PaddyPower's blog:

A woman’s place is in the house – The White House! Paddy Power pays out over $1m on Hillary Clinton victory

10-19-2016 , 10:39 PM

#408

Zenzor

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobo Fett

Betting website pays out $1 million on Clinton wagers

From PaddyPower's blog:

A woman’s place is in the house – The White House! Paddy Power pays out over $1m on Hillary Clinton victory

What is their incentive to pay out early?

10-19-2016 , 10:46 PM

#409

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

Publicity, I assume. If you read their blog, this isn't the first time they've done it, and apparently they've been burned more than once doing so. If they're still doing it in spite of that, I guess they've found it's worthwhile.

10-20-2016 , 02:01 AM

#410

TarantulaGargantu

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 121

i strongly dislike both of these candidates.

one is a snake in the grass.

the other is a wild cannon who comes off highly erratic at times, hardly a trait you want in a president.

At this point, I'd like to ask what kind of return can you get that neither ... 1) trump 2) clinton win the 2016 election. risk 100 to win what?

10-20-2016 , 02:02 AM

#411

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

Betfair odds

Clinton 1.19 = 4/21 = -526
Trump 6.2 = 26/5 = +520

Lame poker metaphor: Badugi:
Clinton dealt T

pats all the way
Trump dealt A

draws 3 > K

draws 3 > J

draws 1 and needs the 4,5,6,7,8,9 of

or the T

to chop for 6.5 outs from the remaining 38 unseen cards.

Yes, Paddy Power often do that stuff for publicity. I'm not sure we as poker players would let someone just take the pot when we still had 17% equity in it

The Jamie Gold is no longer available, but amazingly the following are still available to lay on betfair:

as well as the other side of the market on (Clinton 1.2. Trump 6.4) you can be the bookie and take a bet on
Pence 700
Sanders 580
Biden 750
Ryan 980
McMullin (who?) 700
Kaine 980

or do all of them to pay out 2000 and collect 15.9 if it is none of them.

The rules state

"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2016 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution."

so there is no equity in someone pulling out/dying if they win - it settles on election night.

10-20-2016 , 01:57 PM

#412

Keruli

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 880

so why are the lines moving so slowly? surely trump is well under 10% likely to win the election?

10-20-2016 , 02:18 PM

#413

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keruli

so why are the lines moving so slowly? surely trump is well under 10% likely to win the election?

If that's what you think then "fill yer boots" at the current odds - assuming politics betting is legal where you are obviously.

Not wanting to politard but this seems the case to me too. I called it myself at 3/10 for Hillary when he was getting into that dispute with the dead soldier's family and generally didn't seem to actually want to do what's necessary to win.

I think people don't want to bet Hillary because it's not so exciting to put down $100 to win $19 (or about $18 after commission if you have no other action in that market).

I think the near certainties are often undervalued in politics betting. Yesterday it was possible to do a bet where you lose $1900 if Michelle Obama wins otherwise collect $2 - though that's gone now. The thing is to finally close the market requires people willing to take something heavily odds on. I did 1/100 on the UK to hold a referendum on leaving the EU by 2020 when the campaign was already well underway - but it was still available until there were enough people like me to actually take it.

10-22-2016 , 11:34 PM

#414

TrustySam

journeygirl

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,198

Just turned on SNL - is it skit on the last debate funny so far?

10-22-2016 , 11:41 PM

#415

TrustySam

journeygirl

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,198

Awww, only so-so funny today - that was cute the way Alec Baldwin poked fun at his brother

Tom Hanks and Lady Gaga the guests tonight tho ...

10-23-2016 , 12:56 AM

#416

Videopro

Making TV

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 19,462

No spoilers for us west coasters!

10-23-2016 , 06:07 PM

#417

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

Betfair odds

Clinton 1.21 = 4/19 = -476
Trump 6.0 = 5/1 = +500

So Trump has gained ground. Still Jamie Goldable.

Lame poker metaphor: 2-7 Single Draw:
Hillary dealt 2

4:diamond8

Donald dealt 2

Hillary discards 2

, draws :6

for Lo: 86432

Donald discards 7

needs to draw one of 5

for 7 outs from the remaining 41 cards. The dealer pauses .........

10-24-2016 , 12:06 AM

#418

TrustySam

journeygirl

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by Professionalpoker

No spoilers for us west coasters!

whoops!

Hope you enjoyed the show Professionalpoker - cheers

PS. In keeping with the poker analogies, are you on the verge of 'winning some big pots' LecktorAJ?

10-24-2016 , 12:08 AM

#419

_drawdown

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 5

I had an idea for betting on the election but it came to me too late. It was for the vice-president pick.

What you do is look for when/if VP domain names for candidates were registered. ie: vpnewtgingich.com etc.

IIRC someone claimed vpmikepence.com one day before the announcement, vpchrischristie.com was never claimed. So you can kind of infer a few things.

10-24-2016 , 05:40 AM

#420

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

Quote:

Originally Posted by _drawdown

There are still plenty of opportunities ahead. I will post a tip on election day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrustySam

PS. In keeping with the poker analogies, are you on the verge of 'winning some big pots' LecktorAJ?

So glad you asked. Betting on Hillary is a bit like playing a reverse implied odds hand like KQo, you win a small pot a lot of the time but lose a big one a bit of the time. Also I'm betting small so "big" is still in the context of "microstakes".

I find this whole thing - judging probability outside of gambling games and sports - interesting in its own right however.

Last edited by LektorAJ; 10-24-2016 at 05:45 AM.

10-24-2016 , 11:51 PM

#421

TrustySam

journeygirl

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by LektorAJ

Yes, it's always exciting to find something that's quite like poker, that isn't poker

The US Presidential Election betting has been especially interesting to follow - with the high stakes involved, and there seems to be so much info available - analysis, statistics ... even the opinions behind the statistics. All kinds of stuff.

But then yeah, betting odds for things seem not especially great a lot of the time, for the risk involved? Was fooling around a bit with 'sports' betting last year - it was fun when Beyonce came out during the Superbowl halftime show wearing black shoes lol ... but not so fun when the actual game didn't go the way everybody said it would. Guess maybe the lesson from that is that Sam should stick to betting on fashion instead of sports i don't follow

Also, maybe it's just hard for a lot of people to win in the long-run when a predition that goes another way pays out nothing?

Guess stocks can maybe be a bit more forgiving? Have been meaning to learn more about how to better research stocks for a while now - it seems like maybe research might help make the most of one's retirement fund, no matter how small?

It doesn't seem like too much has been doing well this year with stocks though, so guess haven't been feeling very motivated to learn anything new. Just read something today about Starbucks planning a big expansion in China, so maybe that might be a good place to start? Read something about smaller companies sometimes giving bigger returns - guess it'd be nice to get better at learning more about stocks, so more options like those might be available?

Guess there's a fair amount of things more fun than poker these days

Cheers Lektor!!

Last edited by TrustySam; 10-25-2016 at 12:02 AM.

10-25-2016 , 05:19 PM

#422

_drawdown

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 5

Hasn't been discussed in the thread yet, but in financial markets the Peso/USD is used as proxy for Trump. Stronger Peso is market favoring Clinton.

With health rumors circling around Clinton right before the debates the Peso was selling off. As soon as it was clear that Clinton wasn't going to collapse on stage it got bought heavily.

https://sli.mg/ICxFCI

EDIT: With US 80% to hike rates in november, it makes selling the Peso attractive, as US dollar is strengthening against all the majors anyways.

10-27-2016 , 01:43 PM

#423

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,875

Matt Glassman discusses the election on the Thinking Poker podcast this week. He specifically discusses the betting markets from about the 67 minute mark

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2016/10...matt-glassman/

Betfair odds

Clinton 1.21 = 4/19 = -476
Trump 5.9 = 49/10 = +490

10-28-2016 , 12:16 AM

#424

TrustySam

journeygirl

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,198

The evening news did a little light-hearted story on how some peoples' Halloween lawn decorations have taken on political overtones this year - some of them are quite over the top!

10-28-2016 , 03:18 PM

#425

MaxPowers411

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 109

Mexican Peso down more than 1% with a fresh Hillary email scandal.

ABC poll (which was rigged in favour of Clinton with a 9% oversample of Dems) showing Hillary's lead HALVED from 12 points ahead to now only 6 points up.

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