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NVG's one and only US Presidential Election Thread, Featuring Jamie Gold Betting Strategy NVG's one and only US Presidential Election Thread, Featuring Jamie Gold Betting Strategy

09-23-2016 , 06:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Pretty much every country in the world, as a matter of public policy allows people to invest through limited liability entities - there is a good analogy with poker, without the "all-in protection" of the ability to declare your business (but not yourself) as bankrupt investors would be incredible cautious or "nitty" and nothing would ever get done.

That said, when a company is in trouble the owner has a choice. The first option is to invest more, try and downsize or wind it up in an orderly way, paying everyone and thereby protecting their reputation (my father was a manger at ICI and this was their general approach, and this knowledge that the main company was standing behind the subsidiaries made e.g. it easier for them to get financing or do joint ventures with other companies), the second option is that on the other hand they can choose to let the limited liability vehicle go bankrupt limiting their financial losses but taking the reputational hit and that hit is double when it's their own name hanging over the door.

When my own much smaller business was in trouble I took the first route, working for free for it and eventually traded out of problems - and I'm lucky enough that some of the original staff still want to work for me now, even though they were months behind with their salaries at one time. Obviously using the limited liability protection was an option if I'd needed it but it's my belief that it should be a last resort. If I'd taken the second route then I wouldn't expect to be able to have a political career without it being brought up.

I'm quite sure that you (Mason) would have a similar view of twoplustwo. I find it hard to imagine that if your company was in difficulties you would simply fail to pay an author's royalties at pennies on the dollar and move your activities into a new LLC, because it's your personal name and reputation associated with it too, and for some people thinking about the long term that's more important than saving a bit of extra money this year.
Hi Lektor:

I think if Two Plus Two Publishing LLC was to go bankrupt, the authors would not receive anymore royalties which is different from pennies on the dollar. What might happen is that the contracts we have with the various authors might be sold (or given) to another company and perhaps this other company would renegotiate their royalties. I don't really know.

Fortunately, we're not in any danger of this happening even though with the contraction of poker our business is now smaller than it once was and we have done some downsizing and have also reduced our cost in other ways.

Also, Two Plus Two Publishing LLC is a very different company from what you're describing. Specifically there has never been any outside investment. All financing of the company was done by me so some of the issues you bring up just wouldn't happen here. For instance, even though we do have employees who are on salary, I have never taken a salary. Any money that I have made through 2+2 has come from either royalty payments for the books where I'm an author or co-author or from the profits that the company has generated. That is there was never an outside investor who contributed money to the company with some of that money going to me in the form of salary or other compensation. Two Plus Two Interactive LLC, which is this website, also operates in a similar manner.

Best wishes,
Mason
09-24-2016 , 10:29 AM
Who ever wins this election , one thing is certain. Their supporters are going to be very disappointed in the real actions and policies of the next President.
09-26-2016 , 11:04 AM
worst poker analogy ever

As we sought to game out both candidates’ debate strategies, we turned to someone familiar with high-stakes contests: six-time World Series of Poker champion Daniel Negreanu.

Last edited by Videopro; 09-26-2016 at 11:39 AM. Reason: fixed link?
09-26-2016 , 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gregorio
worst poker analogy ever

As we sought to game out both candidates’ debate strategies, we turned to someone familiar with high-stakes contests: six-time World Series of Poker champion Daniel Negreanu.

Really enjoyed this article, thanks for posting!

DNegs never seems to talk strategy, so it was kind of interesting to see him so talkative about gameplay, even if it had to do with the Presidential debate instead of poker

Maybe there's more room for preparation with Presidential debates, since they know what the other person is like, and what topics will be discussed? But guess the interpersonal dynamic is an unknown variable, so that could be interesting ...

Is this all that's on tv tonight? Or is The Voice still on? lol jk - will probably watch ... one of these two'll be the new leader of the free world in a couple of months time ...
09-26-2016 , 08:42 PM
[Cross post]. As per CNN web site: Don King is chatting with Sheldon Adelson at their seats.

Just because.
09-26-2016 , 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bene Gesserit
Who ever wins this election , one thing is certain. Their supporters are going to be very disappointed in the real actions and policies of the next President.
I can't stand either one. Halfway through the debate and I just turned it off they're both so repellant and obnoxious. And I expect the 1% win and the people lose no matter what.
09-26-2016 , 10:14 PM
Speaking of welching, didn't Doyle wow not to vote for Republicans after UIGEA? And then went back on his word starting with the first election after that?
09-27-2016 , 01:30 AM
Odds on Clinton on Betfair have shortened overnight from 1.6 (implied probability of 62.5%) to 1.45 (69% chance).

Personally I called the election for Clinton at 1.3 (77%) when Trump was arguing with that dead man's family so I was obviously premature anyway.
09-29-2016 , 04:00 PM
Where can I get the book on poker pro hand signals?

http://yournewswire.com/poker-pro-cl...ignals-debate/
09-29-2016 , 07:26 PM
How much money is Jamie going to make if Trump wins?
10-02-2016 , 06:24 PM
SNL did a sketch of the Presidential Debate that kind of pokes fun at both candidates in a light-hearted fashion - looks like someone was able to post a copy on youtube, for anyone that didn't have a chance to catch it ...

Trump (Alec Baldwin) highlights - 1:05 to 3:18
Clinton highlights - 6:51 to end


PS. Superswag - oh yeah, guess Jamie Gold is guaranteed a payout no matter what, isn't he?

Last edited by TrustySam; 10-02-2016 at 06:29 PM.
10-02-2016 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam
SNL did a sketch of the Presidential Debate that kind of pokes fun at both candidates in a light-hearted fashion - looks like someone was able to post a copy on youtube, for anyone that didn't have a chance to catch it ...
LOL. That "someone" is the official SNL channel. So, yeah, I guess they're able to post it on YouTube.
10-03-2016 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
When my own much smaller business was in trouble I took the first route, working for free for it and eventually traded out of problems - and I'm lucky enough that some of the original staff still want to work for me now, even though they were months behind with their salaries at one time. Obviously using the limited liability protection was an option if I'd needed it but it's my belief that it should be a last resort. If I'd taken the second route then I wouldn't expect to be able to have a political career without it being brought up.
Yes, but what does it have to do with his ability to run the country? Unless all you're doing is looking for something bad to say about the man.

Quote:
I'm quite sure that you (Mason) would have a similar view of twoplustwo. I find it hard to imagine that if your company was in difficulties you would simply fail to pay an author's royalties at pennies on the dollar and move your activities into a new LLC, because it's your personal name and reputation associated with it too, and for some people thinking about the long term that's more important than saving a bit of extra money this year.
I would think the royalty contracts were signed with the company, and are therefore assets of the company. The new owner(s) would be liable for future royalties, but past royalties owed but not paid would go on the list of creditors and the court would figure out how much they get. That's pretty much how bk's go, assuming it's Chap 7.

Last edited by pig4bill; 10-03-2016 at 02:19 PM.
10-03-2016 , 04:04 PM
Sure that's how bankruptcies go. Obviously this is a hypothetical and Mason has pointed out there is no danger it would happen, but as you say, if 2p2 were declared bankrupt and didn't pay royalties there wouldn't be any legal recourse for the authors against the principals - that's what limited liability business is. However we wouldn't expect to see MM, for example, playing super high rollers, trading his wife in for a younger model and starting new businesses in exactly the same lines as the old ones. But if we did, again as a hypothetical, then we would compare him to Dutch Boyd, whose limited liability vehicle went bankrupt holding player funds but he still had the money to play the WSOP.

That whole scenario sounds so unlikely because MM is nothing like Dutch Boyd.

Trump talks as if "doing a Dutch Boyd" is part of normal business and "smart". Well maybe, but it marks you out as someone suppliers need to post prepayments, someone who needs to be sent invoices by registered mail.

We hear enough negativity about businessmen from people who don't and can't do business. We don't need to hear it from someone the public perceives as a star businessman. I'm here to say that this attitude is not the attitude of everyone in the world who does business with their own name hanging over the door.
10-08-2016 , 06:33 AM
Nice cencoring by the Daily News

10-08-2016 , 09:42 AM
Weld appears to be the most presidential candidate of the lot. Why isn't he running with Johnson as the vp?
10-08-2016 , 04:17 PM
I am all for Trump, he is an excellent father, etc. He just cannot control his emotions, thus the Clinton's will win again. LMAO if you think Bill & Hillary belong in the White House again! Prefer Obama pull an executive order, loved him!
10-09-2016 , 02:31 AM
Latest Betfair odds.

Clinton 1.27 = -370 = 37 to 10 odds on
Trump 5.4 = +440 = 22 to 5
Pence 70 = +6900 = 69 to 1

All available to lay at one increment higher.

Other candidates on which there is a two-sided market

Biden 220 240
Sanders 210 220
Kaine 700 800
M. Obama 970 1000
Ryan 140 160

IMHO the lay combination on Biden Sanders an M.Obama looks like free money. Even if Clinton doesn't make the election then why is the first lady an obvious candidate? Biden is more explainable by the unclear titling of the market as "next president" - the rules make it clear though that it has to be the election winner.

Taking 8.33 pounds on Biden at 240, 9.09 pounds on Biden at 220 and 2 pounds on Michelle Obama at 1000 for a profit of 19.42 (18.06 after BF charge) or a loss of 1980.58 if one of them actually wins seems like a good bet if you don't mind having that much money tied up for a month or you are trading with previous profits in that market.
10-09-2016 , 04:34 AM
Gotta think that history will have many people saying "what were the Republicans thinking???".
10-09-2016 , 06:03 AM
I think Trump represents USA quite well, to the point what is wrong with the country.
10-09-2016 , 10:10 AM
Pussygate sunk Trump.

There's a sentence I never would have guessed in a million years I'd be writing.
10-09-2016 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uh*Oh
Pussygate sunk Trump.

There's a sentence I never would have guessed in a million years I'd be writing.
Has it though? is there anyone ITT who was going to vote for him before and is not now?
10-09-2016 , 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Has it though? is there anyone ITT who was going to vote for him before and is not now?
2+2 poker players are far more jaded than the average American, so it may not change anyone's mind here, but I think much of the nation is genuinely appalled.
10-09-2016 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gregorio
worst poker analogy ever

As we sought to game out both candidates’ debate strategies, we turned to someone familiar with high-stakes contests: six-time World Series of Poker champion Daniel Negreanu.
Was checking to see if DNegs did another one for this week, and didn't see anything - but it looks like Phil Hellmuth did one for the last one as well?
Guess this week could be the week it gets a lot more personal, and less about the issues?

These debates are interesting because of the stakes alone - but guess debates can sometimes be interesting for the substance/style stuff too?


There's a big baseball game on at the same time as this debate - is there football too? And it's Thanksgiving in Canada ... always so much going on in October

10-09-2016 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Has it though? is there anyone ITT who was going to vote for him before and is not now?
People who care enough about politics to post about it aren't often going to have their mind changed by a single incident, unless it's something really huge.

But you have to think that as all this different stuff piles up, the millions of "swing voters" out there may mostly shift in the same direction.

      
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