Well that's moved the odds - Trump's chance of winning increased by half. Sanders in to 130 from circa 300-1

Clinton 1.32 = 8/25 = -312.5
Trump 4.4 = 17/5 = +340
Sanders 130 = 129/1 = +12900

Lame poker metaphor: Hillary had two big cards dominating Trump, but Trump has just turned a gutshot straight flush draw.

Clinton drifting further...

Clinton 1.34 = 20/59 = -294
Trump 4.0 = 3/1 = +300
Sanders 170 = 169/1 = +16900

Lame poker metaphor:
Trump holding A5 and Clinton holding J9 on T936 Trump has 11 outs on the river card. If he doesn't hit he's planning to call the chief floorman and the 8 7 associate floorpeople and get them to run it again.

Certainly was feeling great about my Hillary @1.36, and now.. this. ****

How about this then?

Clinton 1.39 = 20/51 = -256
Trump 3.7 = 27/10 = +270
Sanders 250 = 249/1 = +24900

Lame poker metaphor - Trump now up to 12 outs on the river.

IMHO the market is overreacting. Do we think she has forwarded classified information to this Weiner guy of all people?

I've bet more on Clinton now - though not on the general election, on the individual states in her "firewall".

I have NC at 1.64, MI at 1.3, FL at 1.95, NV at 1.45, PA at 1.28 and NH at 1.35.


I think the "tipping point" state of North Carolina is a good deal at 1.64 given it's supposed to be the one that decides the election. If I was more neutral on Clinton's chances I would like an arb on that - Clinton to win that state but insured by a bet on Trump to win the election with the stakes set that you finish slightly ahead if only one of those comes up.

http://www.jpost.com/US-Elections/La...th-cash-471380


A quick reminder Adelson is one of the strongest opposers to legalized online poker.


So which candidate is more likely to legalize online poker?

I would have thought Republican. But with Adelson's backing I have serious doubts.

How is this news to you ?

Lol at the MURICANS that are going to vote for Trump.

you are LOLing 45% of the Murican voting public

Maths is hard but Clinton will win by a slim margin and Trump will protest. There will be talk of secession but that will die down about six months into her presidency.

Oh and WWIII will break out in the next 1-2 years regardless of who wins.

Be more specific, which is which?

But lots of Dead ones are voting for Hillary.

Watching the WS, and just saw a commercial for a County Clerk candidate.

Americans are weird. I still love you, but you're weird.

Go Cubbies!

peso getting sold heavy last few days

https://sli.mg/hXUyLu

Can we call Nevada for Clinton yet?

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the...ly-voting-blog

NV publishes voter affiliation of voters casting early ballots - in 2012 Obama's eventual result was within a point of early voting

"the statewide lead is 30,500, which is about 4,500 behind four years ago."

"----561,000 people have voted now. That's 38 percent. If turnout is 80 percent overall when all is said and done, about half the vote is in and things are getting baked.

Numbers:

561,901 voted

D-238,816 (43 percent)
R-202,219 (37 percent)
Others - 114,866 (20 percent)"

Betfair odds on Nevada still available now:
Democrats 1.42 = 1/2.38 = -238
Republicans 3.15 = 2.15/1 = +215

If we call Nevada for Clinton she can afford to lose Colorado, but not a bigger state from the firewall like Michigan.

Current odds on the general election:

Clinton 1.41 = 1/2.44 = -244
Trump 3.6 = 2.6/1 = +260

So Trump up to about 12.5 outs on the river.

Those are very good NV odds for Trump considering polling favors him at the moment.

Well as the finance guys in London say, "It takes two views to make a market."

Yes, the 538 polls-based model puts it at 50-50, so the odds are a compromise between that and the votes-based news coming out of NV.

Sure, but these early voting results don't in any way counter what the polls are showing. D's are down slightly compared to 2012, but Trump is doing well because of his numbers with independents, not any demographic shifts.

Betting market for most other states are actually very close to 538, interestingly enough (however I don't think the politics market is anywhere near deep enough that it can be considered ultimate truth).

Yes, I think quite a lot of money is just trading the differences between the markets and the 538 probabilities - or at least offering to lay candidates at odds based on that.

On the other hand there is an actual market on some states where there really shouldn't be:
e.g Dems to win CA 1.02 = 1/50 = -5000
Reps to win Alabama 1.01 = 1/100 = -10000

If people have bankroll on there they should take a free 1 or 2% boost if they don't fancy anything else.

Ok Betfair are running an actual market on the Jamie Gold

Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump 1.01 = 1/100 = -10000
Any other candidate 50 = 49/1 = +4900

Given it settles on the night in normal circumstances (e.g. no Florida recount, no hung EC), I'm amazed that people are actually offering odds on that at this late stage. Some people just need action I suppose though I think that's no less mad offering odds for the Dems to win New York or Reps to win South Dakota (both currently 1.02).

Competitive states
AZ D: 3.4, R: 1.39
CO: D: 1.27, R: 4.7
FL D: 1.7, R: 2.3
MI D: 1.22, R: 4.9
NV D: 1.38, R: 3.25
NH D: 1.46, R: 2.96
NC D: 1.69, R: 2.08
OH D: 3.1, R: 1.43
UT D: 15, R: 1.31 McMullin 5.3 (Republicans were at 1.77 not long ago)


The Betfair market has now called Oklahoma for the Republicans, no more volume available. Some people offering Dems at 100. Also in the absence of a market on D.C. we can call that for Hillary ourselves. Rather than listening to the talking heads on TV we should let the gamblers call states for particular candidates.

Current electoral college as called by Betfair: Trump 6 Clinton 3

To win:
Clinton 1.33 = 1/3 = -303
Trump 4 = 3/1 = +300

Lame poker metaphor: It's a board of 469J with Trump holding A2 and Clinton holding KK

Big moves in the markets today. Not sure why when Trump is polling well.

Handicap market
Clinton to win by 74.5 or more: 2.0 = evens
Trump to win, or to lose by less than 74.5: 1.9 = 9/10 = -111

So that would set the US-style "line" at about a gap of 70 (most likely around 304 electoral votes if no 3rd party candidate win a state).

Clinton shortening in the odds

Clinton 1.27 = 10/37 = -370
Trump 4.6 = 36/10 = +360

Trump on 9 outs - a bare flush draw with one card to come.

States called so far by the gamblers (no money available to bet even at 1/100)

Republicans: Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma = 17 ECV
Democrats: DC = 3 ECV

This is the current map showing the betting favourite in each state


http://www.270towin.com/maps/D30lk

There isn't a separate market on the Maine congressional districts, so we can maybe set the line at 322-216

The closest race is currently North Carolina Democrats 1.82, Republicans 1.98 (i.e. both shorter than evens, which is 2.0 in this system of writing odds, while 1.5 is 1/2, 3.0 is 2/1 etc)

Very soon after I posted the above, that FBI guy said there was no criminality in the new emails (presumably they are duplicates of ones they have already seen on her server) and the odds moved:

Clinton 1.21 = 4/19 = -476
Trump 5.9 = 49/10 = +490

7.5 river outs for Trump.

TBH I think that's a massive overreaction - the scenarios in which Trump wins are basically the ones in which the polls and models are wrong so no news should be moving the odds that much, except perhaps early voting news giving clues as to turnout in specific groups and thus whether polling companies are over- under-counting groups. It's not even clear whether reminding people of the email thing again at this point helps or hinders her.

I got in just in time though. After I posted that I put almost my entire poker bankroll on Unibet (except what I had already used to buy into MTTs) on Clinton - with equal shares for Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, the electoral college and a half share for Illinois. The win odds on Unibet have come down to 1.20 from 1.25 when I got in (and considering they don't charge vig on the winnings they are actually better than Betfair right now for someone who just wants to bet and hold). Illinois still at 1.01 though.

So excited, it's finally almost here!!! Then we finally don't have to hear about it any more!

Of course then it will just be days of hearing about how the election is rigged, or...the unthinkable.

Jungle man said he was gonna vote trump the other day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If that's the case I wonder if the pollsters are accurately reflecting the fact that Trump has the asperger contingent vote locked up.

you think this is wise?