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Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread) Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread)
View Poll Results: Will the Corona Virus will alter their plans to attend WSOP this Summer (if it's not canceled)
Never planned on attending.
177 32.48%
Definitely wont attend.
112 20.55%
Probably wont attend.
93 17.06%
Probably will attend.
71 13.03%
Definitely will attend.
92 16.88%

03-30-2020 , 07:24 AM
Or install an automated door opener with a wave sensor.
03-30-2020 , 07:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
It's great that you found an article that puts a number on it. But we discussed this "bookkeeping error" six days ago ITT when wondering out loud about why Germany's reported fatality rate was lower than elsewhere, while Italy's was 'off the charts'.
I wrote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
I think a big factor is "bookkeeping" of the stats. Italy is apparently tallying the numbers in a different way to Germany. e.g. Italy may include deaths from heart attacks in the Covid stats if the patient happens to have the virus, whereas Germany would (correctly imo) list the cause of death as a heart attack, if Covid wasn't a contributing factor.
It's the same kind of 'accountancy error' that will be found when people look back at this year's influenza stats for the US and elsewhere. For the months when the US didn't have a large number of working Covid-19 tests, hundreds of US "influenza-like illnesses" and deaths were attributed solely to flu. I'm not saying those people didn't have flu, because most or all of the fatal cases actually tested positive for that virus, but many probably also had the Coronavirus undetected in their bodies.
Flu-like symptoms in the US (the red line on this graph) were considerably higher than usual in January-February, when hospitals weren't widely testing for Covid-19. Now that the tests are available, the US numbers of confirmed Covid cases have rocketed. It's not necessarily the case that the authorities have "lied" for devious reasons. It's often just a data-collection and admin phenomenon.

CDC Quote: "The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 67.3 per 100,000 population, which is higher than all recent seasons at this time of year except for the 2017-18 season". [Source].

If the numbers don't make a lot of sense to you, don't automatically jump into bed with conspiracy theorists on YouTube. Those guys usually have an inherent bias (often a racist one) or ulterior motive.
Until more info is available, you have to take a lot of the data (and the predictions/models) with a large dose of salt, and possibly mix in some dark humour:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Game Theory
So, what do you think 3 months from now will look,like? I know Faucci and a zillion others have given their forecasts. I want Arty's lmao.
To some extent, I was just the blind squirrel that sometimes finds the nuts, but I've been fascinated by 'existential threats' for years, so was aware of the risk of pandemics, and was quick to spot that this had potential to be a very bad one. The early development of the pandemic and its effects (e.g. the spread to other countries outside of China) was fairly easy to predict. However, it's incredibly hard to project future numbers and consequences from this point onward. Ed Miller (who also took a very early interest) wrote a little thread on this topic.

He went on to say "none". While some of us might have been quick to notice that something bad was happening in January, none of us knows exactly where this is going. Dr Fauci is an absolute endboss of epidemiology, so he's the guy to listen to. I'm glad Trump has apparently started doing that.
03-30-2020 , 08:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SetSetter
...If you want some optimism, we could very well find out that Italy's high death rate was due to them simply not testing as much. if Italy tested more people, they would find many more positive cases (mostly people who didn't know they were sick) but yet their death totals wouldn't change much, but their death RATE would plummet.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I remember looking them up about 7-10 days ago. At that time, S. Korea had tested about 300K people and Italy had tested about 200K. And both countries had tested about 8K people in the early days of the pandemic within their borders (ie within 4 weeks of first reported case).

Take from that what you will, and I honestly don't know which numbers to believe coming out of any country. But according to those figures, I don't think it would be at all accurate to say Italy did not test much. Whether those tests or the figures being reported are accurate... that's anyone's guess.
03-30-2020 , 10:09 AM
Daniel Negreanu Calls For 2020 WSOP To Be Rescheduled For The Fall

"Prominent names in the world of poker now believe that the 51st WSOP will not push through considering the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Poker Hall of Famer Daniel Negreanu who is one of poker’s most popular ambassadors is certain there will be no WSOP this summer, though he welcomes the idea of rescheduling the festival this fall."

"While Negreanu is not optimistic about the 2020 WSOP taking place as per schedule he is optimistic that the live poker scene will likely enjoy a boom, with multiple being rescheduled. He is confident that poker players will be all pumped up to return to the tables and compete after this long hiatus."

https://www.top10pokersites.net/news...d-for-the-fall
03-30-2020 , 10:15 AM
And thats coming from me.
Apparently conspiracy nut no1 itt.
Was almost scared of replies today.
Sorry for the fear mongering yesterday,
as I went through YouTube for a good conspiracy story.
YouTube is going full potato on this.
03-30-2020 , 10:45 AM
The WHO, an organization many refer to as "experts" on these sorts of matters, has always held that travel restrictions are not effective in preventing the spread of these kinds of infectious diseases (eg those at least as infectious as influenza).

https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swin...vel_advice/en/

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes.../14-135590/en/

Doesn't this seem to fly in the face of reality?
03-30-2020 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
The WHO, an organization many refer to as "experts" on these sorts of matters, has always held that travel restrictions are not effective in preventing the spread of these kinds of infectious diseases (eg those at least as infectious as influenza).
https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swin...vel_advice/en/
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes.../14-135590/en/
Doesn't this seem to fly in the face of reality?
"No need for travel bans" was the WHO's stated policy even after the UK, Italy, and the US had advised their citizens to not travel to China, and about 2 days after Russia and Kazahkstan stopped providing visas to Chinese travellers (effectively closing their borders).
Look at the timelines for January 29-30 on wikipedia.
On January 30th, when several countries cancelled many flights to and from China, the head of the WHO said:
Quote:
There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. WHO doesn't recommend limiting trade and movement.
[Source: NPR.]
At that point the virus and disease hadn't even been given their official names. It was still "nCoV". But it was also the day that WHO labelled the outbreak a "Global Health Emergency". For one reason or another, the WHO wasn't yet ready to call it a global pandemic, perhaps because they thought they had it under control. Italy, however, announced a State of Emergency the very next day.
On January 30th, there were fewer than 100 confirmed cases outside of mainland China and it was already too late to stop it eventually reaching every country in the world.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 03-30-2020 at 11:30 AM. Reason: typo corrections
03-30-2020 , 11:20 AM
https://www.covidvisualizer.com/

Similar to worldometers except with a visual globe you can rotate and click any country for updates and totals
03-30-2020 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
Arty have you seen this video? This is why Italys numbers are off. They are also if this is true at 1.
2%

I randomly stumbled in this topic and the amount of missinformation in this video is just ridiculous.

*The mortality rate of corona in Italy is not 10%. It is 10% because they are only testing people who have severe symptoms.

*The thought that Corona causility with reason for dying is only 12%, is completely ridiculous. In Lombardy, daily deaths of corona alone are more than 40% higher than the normal amount of daily deaths. And there are still people dying that don't have corona.

*The Netherlands is not really going for herd immunity anymore, and is in a less severe quarantine mode than the rest of Europe. Only Sweden is left. Btw, Netherlands is starting to worry about their ICU capacity (like the rest of Europe).

*The risk for young people their lives is low. The risk for young people suffering pernament damage, is higher. The risk for young people losing their parents or grand parents 10-20-30-40 years earlier than in normal circumstances, is also significant. I guess that doesn't matter?
03-30-2020 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golfnutt
The only question is will there be a 2021 WSOP. My guess is 50/50.
I'm in for up to 10k
03-30-2020 , 12:58 PM
Negreanu says wsop won't happen, maybe fall

https://www.highstakesdb.com/10245-d...-go-ahead.aspx
03-30-2020 , 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
It's great that you found an article that puts a number on it. But we discussed this "bookkeeping error" six days ago ITT when wondering out loud about why Germany's reported fatality rate was lower than elsewhere, while Italy's was 'off the charts'.
I wrote:

It's the same kind of 'accountancy error' that will be found when people look back at this year's influenza stats for the US and elsewhere. For the months when the US didn't have a large number of working Covid-19 tests, hundreds of US "influenza-like illnesses" and deaths were attributed solely to flu. I'm not saying those people didn't have flu, because most or all of the fatal cases actually tested positive for that virus, but many probably also had the Coronavirus undetected in their bodies.
Flu-like symptoms in the US (the red line on this graph) were considerably higher than usual in January-February, when hospitals weren't widely testing for Covid-19. Now that the tests are available, the US numbers of confirmed Covid cases have rocketed. It's not necessarily the case that the authorities have "lied" for devious reasons. It's often just a data-collection and admin phenomenon.

CDC Quote: "The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 67.3 per 100,000 population, which is higher than all recent seasons at this time of year except for the 2017-18 season". [Source].

If the numbers don't make a lot of sense to you, don't automatically jump into bed with conspiracy theorists on YouTube. Those guys usually have an inherent bias (often a racist one) or ulterior motive.
Until more info is available, you have to take a lot of the data (and the predictions/models) with a large dose of salt, and possibly mix in some dark humour:


To some extent, I was just the blind squirrel that sometimes finds the nuts, but I've been fascinated by 'existential threats' for years, so was aware of the risk of pandemics, and was quick to spot that this had potential to be a very bad one. The early development of the pandemic and its effects (e.g. the spread to other countries outside of China) was fairly easy to predict. However, it's incredibly hard to project future numbers and consequences from this point onward. Ed Miller (who also took a very early interest) wrote a little thread on this topic.

He went on to say "none". While some of us might have been quick to notice that something bad was happening in January, none of us knows exactly where this is going. Dr Fauci is an absolute endboss of epidemiology, so he's the guy to listen to. I'm glad Trump has apparently started doing that.
POTY

Thanks.
03-30-2020 , 01:54 PM
The whole CoronaVirus stuff is a big lie to me.
People die of many reason for example in car crash.
Do we stop drive vehicle??
People die of alcohol issue, do we ban all drinks??
The whole world is getting crazy becuase of a virus that is killing some people, but we dont care about the another stuff...
Do we care of CoronaVirus becuase we want care or do we care because we must and have to care?
People are hypocritical and sanctimonious.
Think about this.
03-30-2020 , 02:09 PM
That take is so 3 weeks ago.
03-30-2020 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
The whole CoronaVirus stuff is a big lie to me.
People die of many reason for example in car crash.
Do we stop drive vehicle??
People die of alcohol issue, do we ban all drinks??
The whole world is getting crazy becuase of a virus that is killing some people, but we dont care about the another stuff...
Do we care of CoronaVirus becuase we want care or do we care because we must and have to care?
People are hypocritical and sanctimonious.
Think about this.
Hi Sean Hannity
03-30-2020 , 02:21 PM
Why stop at a hundred thousand dead, when a couple million is within your grasp, eh Martin?
03-30-2020 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
Think about this.
Hmm... Our problem all along is we haven't tried to think about it. I believe this "thinking" concept might be applicable to other aspects of life as well. Thank you for opening our eyes!
03-30-2020 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
The whole CoronaVirus stuff is a big lie to me.
Its not a lie. Its just a reality most people were not prepared to face.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
People die of many reason for example in car crash.
Do we stop drive vehicle??
People die of alcohol issue, do we ban all drinks??
People aren't really aware of how many people die every year, and for what reasons... In the US its about 3MM per year:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

The credible resources we have seen have pointed to the potential for 2MM+ people to have died from COVID-19 over the course of a year if nothing was done. Given this number, it makes sense for people to "tolerate" the economic loss and burden we have seen. I mean this would represent an enormous increase in deaths and would also come with a non-insignificant impact on the economy due to loss of productivity. However, I do think that people's tolerance for the mitigation steps will wane over time and their tolerance for accepting large numbers of deaths will increase. If COVID-22 comes around in a few years and is similar to COVID-19, people will not tolerate what is going on now unless it is shown to be a significantly larger risk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
The whole world is getting crazy becuase of a virus that is killing some people, but we dont care about the another stuff...
When you say "another stuff" I assume you are referring to the economic impact of the various mitigation strategies being used. I disagree with you. A lot of people (especially those in charge), care very much about this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
Do we care of CoronaVirus becuase we want care or do we care because we must and have to care?
That is for each person to decide on their own. In my experience people's level of "caring" about any issue is large determined by how it affects them directly or indirectly. However, most human beings (at least the non-psychopaths) are capable of sacrificing their own interests to some degree for something outside themselves... be it "the greater good", or whatever. But that ability has its limits. Hopefully we won't get to see what happens when those limits are reached with regard to COVID-19.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
People are hypocritical and sanctimonious.
yes, and doubly yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
Think about this.
We all are, I assume. Else this is an awful big waste of internet bandwidth. Not to mention time.
03-30-2020 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by namisgr11
Why stop at a hundred thousand dead, when a couple million is within your grasp, eh Martin?
The WHO estimate 4.8 million people die every year due to air pollution, Not saying i agree with everything he said but covid-19 deaths have barely touched that and we have closed down the world economy. Where is the yearly outrage at all the air pollution related deaths?
03-30-2020 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarkington
Non-medical opinion here but guessing the flu is everywhere every year while Covid is a new virus that emerged from bats...hence covid could have been contained by locking down china/Wuhan in the early stages but there is no way to lock down influenza anywhere

Anyways, it don’t matter now I guess China closing its border in December was the only way to contain it...but would have been a bold step if there were international observers with authority could have maybe happened...
Countries which share a border have their own special set of issues when an outbreak like this occurs. But other countries, like the US and those in Europe can impose travel bans any time they want. When China finally told the world about the outbreak (at least a week after it was detected, mind you), most countries did not impose travel bans. The US was one of the first, I believe, and it was like 3 weeks later. I have to believe this delay had something to do with WHO guidance. And I have to believe this guidance will be ignored in similar situations going forward. Even if a future outbreak doesn't appear as problematic because the virus seems less dangerous, will any country be willing to take the risk?
03-30-2020 , 03:42 PM
WSOP ain't happening this Summer. I don't think players should be put in a position of handicapping their Day 2 table draws (Italian, Chinese players at table) as to whether they even survive the Series!

I think WSOP should just start planning the 2021 Summer and go balls out for the most spectacular series ever, completely player-friendly, reduced rake, steep hotel discounts across Caesars properties, etc, etc.
03-30-2020 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly
WSOP ain't happening this Summer. I don't think players should be put in a position of handicapping their Day 2 table draws (Italian, Chinese players at table) as to whether they even survive the Series!

I think WSOP should just start planning the 2021 Summer and go balls out for the most spectacular series ever, completely player-friendly, reduced rake, steep hotel discounts across Caesars properties, etc, etc.
rooms are actually pretty cheap during wsop most days at caesars properties especially if you have diamond but gl with the other suggestions. they aren't lowering the rake.
if they could make a dollar more hosting some other event during that time frame they would.
03-30-2020 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by U shove i call
The WHO estimate 4.8 million people die every year due to air pollution, Not saying i agree with everything he said but covid-19 deaths have barely touched that and we have closed down the world economy. Where is the yearly outrage at all the air pollution related deaths?
The more direct the problem appears, the more likely something is going to get done, even if it is "less dangerous" then a macro problem. A far away problem, in either distance or time, is less likely to receive action. For things like climate some of those in power to do something are either so removed in distance to the problem, or their judgement is clouded by short term gains.

Those are slow bleed problems at first, while this happens all at once. 100000 can die over a year due to something, but it is accounted and the necessary staff, supplies and designated space are available. But if you take even a smaller number, but have it happen all it once, those things disappear and you begin a full collapse. All other medical issues don't go away, and you are getting flooded with other ones. People are more likely to be outraged because they are witnessing this first hand and immediately, instead at a potential later date.
03-30-2020 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinK1979
The whole CoronaVirus stuff is a big lie to me.
People die of many reason for example in car crash.
Do we stop drive vehicle??
People die of alcohol issue, do we ban all drinks??
The whole world is getting crazy becuase of a virus that is killing some people, but we dont care about the another stuff...
Do we care of CoronaVirus becuase we want care or do we care because we must and have to care?
People are hypocritical and sanctimonious.
Think about this.
Wow such a hot take.

These are the same people mocking social distancing and still going out to beaches, parties, church, etc. The same people that said it's "just a flu" or that older people "are bound to die from something".


If cars or alcohol suddenly sickened millions of innocent people in a short amount of time and threatened to crash the healthcare system, I assure you they would be banned until solutions could be found.

Public gatherings has threatened the health of millions of innocent people in a short period of time, so therefore they are being banned until a solution can be found.
03-30-2020 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikey_D
I am going to be optimistic that once the world gets through this, or at least to a point where ~98% containment is achieved allowing time for a vaccine to be invented, that a lot of good will ultimately come from this pandemic.
98% containment? What does that mean? Countries are not going to wait for a vaccine to radically change their response.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikey_D

Taking poker first, as we are on a poker/gambling forum.

Hygiene levels in live poker will be increased greatly by venues that want to introduce them as a USP, then other venues will need to fall into line if they want to be competitive.
Again, what on earth does this mean? Are venues going to smell their customers (this would certainly be beneficial at the WOSP) and decide who to let in based on that? Is some machine going to be invented that you walk through and tells if you have a contagious disease like a metal detector? What exactly do you foresee as the responsibility of a poker venue in this matter? It seems sort of pointless to say something like "Hygiene levels in live poker will be increased greatly by venues..." without actually giving any detail or explaining what you mean.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikey_D
Winning players, and even break even and losing players will be more sensible with their life roll money management, saving more for a rainy day, not putting so much of their net worth into risky investments and concentrating more on buying tangible and useful assets.
I would prepare to be disappointed if I were you. People rarely act rationally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikey_D
The above should mean that players both live and on line will be a happier bunch than they are now, because they have become less life degenerates than they once were.

Linked to the above is that poker players will have a better perspective of the game, that it is only a game, and be more humble and aware of this. E.g. not thinking that they have made it in life because they can beat 5/10 or whatever.
You are entitled to have an opinion on this or any other matter, including one which is shared by others, but I don't agree with your psychological assessment whatsoever, nor do I have any reason to believe you are qualified to make a psychological assessment. I also disagree with the notion that your concept of happiness should extend to everyone.

So your perspective is "better perspective"? What poker means to each individual is based on their own beliefs, life experiences, and expectations. I don't see any reason why anyone should assume their own view of what poker means should be how everyone else views the game as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikey_D

And for the world in general.

Again, one would hope that governments and countries everywhere are 10 times more prepared for the next pandemic. This will obviously cost a lot of money, but it has already been demonstrated that money can be found immediately, albeit at the cost of likely future increases in inflation. Preparation for the next pandemic will benefit the whole population because it will mean that healthcare capacity is greatly increased for regular non pandemic healthcare. Clearly the benefits of this will vary from country to country dependant on the level of free health care already built into each country's health system. But this brings me on to my next point.

With all of the mistakes that multiple governments and leaders have made, some unavoidable mistakes or misjudgements, but many mistakes that have been unforced errors, my hope is that this will make governments from this point forward much more accountable and that they will come under constant scrutiny from the public, the media, and from experts that are not in government, on a scale that has never been seen before. This will have the effect of greatly improving governments' policies and they will find it much harder to fob off the public/the media/experts so will have to face the tough questions and won't be allowed to avoid them.

So my hope is that the populations of each nation will now view governments, their policies, their decision making, the information that they feed us, with great suspicion and scepticism, until proven otherwise.

This current pandemic could spell a big shift in the way countries and the world is governed so might be the best thing that has ever happened to us. The death toll will be very large and an awful chapter in our history but may prove ultimately to save the lives of a much higher number of people as well as improve the quality of life for many in the world henceforth.

This pandemic has clearly revealed that politicians have been placing themselves on a pedestal that has given them immunity from being properly challenged about their conduct or decision making because they have been democratically or otherwise elected so have the "right" to do whatever they like. This "right" to do whatever they like during their term/period of power/office has now been brought into question by their poor performance and by their now obvious fallibility.
People are not capable of accurately analyzing the performance of world leaders. There's just not enough reliable information or expertise to go around. So whether you believe our leaders are doing poorly or others believe they are doing great is sort of besides the point. Of course the relative proportion of these views makes a difference when it comes to who are leaders are in representative democracies. But nothing about this crisis seems to indicate a change to me in how people will view government. If there is a change, it will not be a good one. Whenever people have a real or manufactured thing to fear, governments take advantage by reducing freedoms. Even when done with good intentions, there can be negative consequences. That is what people really need to be on the lookout for post-crisis.

      
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