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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
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Old 06-07-2009, 07:43 PM   #4401
PokErasmus
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Ah, the "entropy effect"

Do you actually think the hands are identical?

Well, the similarity applies to certain characteristics such as nomination of the card, nominations within the set and the odds of such events can be accurately calculated based on that similarities.

I have posted here two consecutive deals that happened to me and in main characteristics they are similar. It was two consecutives Pocket 9, one element of the pair is 9d, the pocket 9 made the diamond flush by getting four diamonds on the board, and then one opponent had only one over card which made the flush and consecutively beat the pocket 9d by making the flush. And all this has happened in two consecutive deals to the same individual on the same table.

My understanding is the odds of that’s happening to a player is over 1:3,000,000,000 … one to three f…n billion.

The odds of the f…n British Lottery jackpot is about 1:14 million, the PS deal odds are 220 times more than the odds of British Lottery jackpot, but such thing still happening at PS daily bases, while PS deals no more than 20 million hands a day. Such things which odds is over 1:a billion happened to me at least three times in the last two months since I have signed up at PS.

So tell me please, how on the Earth it is possible PS produces such 1:3 billion odds events daily bases?
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Old 06-07-2009, 07:50 PM   #4402
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by PokErasmus View Post
All I've been saying is that if the software would exclusively rely on the Intel hardware RNG and the card distribution would not interrupted with some kind of card distribution algorithms, if the submitted cards would be purely based on the Intel hardware RNG of then such output would technically not possible. It's a technical fact, the existence of such deals indicates that the software is manipulated at some layer.
Please explain. How does the same hand (by rank, anyway) being dealt close together = software manipulation? By that thinking, how can they possibly deal more than 712 or whatever the number of unique hands is at a time?
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Old 06-07-2009, 08:10 PM   #4403
PokErasmus
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by otatop View Post
Please explain. How does the same hand (by rank, anyway) being dealt close together = software manipulation? By that thinking, how can they possibly deal more than 712 or whatever the number of unique hands is at a time?
It’s more than close - the samples I have posted are two consecutive deals.

Just like the Intel hardware RNG would not produce two consecutives similar 1024 digits integer in the next 10,000 years, it would not produce dataset that results in two consecutive exactly similar deals and result to the same individual at the same table in a very long period. Still, these things happening at PS site daily bases.

So it is not possible that PS software is purely based on the Intel RNG, if it would be such consecutive deals would not happen so frequently, which means the software is manipulated.
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Old 06-07-2009, 08:20 PM   #4404
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by PokErasmus View Post
It’s more than close - the samples I have posted are two consecutive deals.
I'll admit I only looked over the last two 100 post pages, but I couldn't find the hands you posted. Link?
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:19 PM   #4405
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I'll admit I only looked over the last two 100 post pages, but I couldn't find the hands you posted. Link?

The hands in unconverted form are posted at the end.

The EV in the first hand between the two "identical though very different hands" was (ignoring the third guy for heads up calculations) is 58/42

The EV in the second hand is 63/37

This is because the second hand the AA hand is double suited, where the first one the AA hand was rainbow.

Oh yeah, they were at different stakes. Versus different opponents. And last but not least - the hands are not anywhere near the same.

Entropy effect aside, this is like seeing AsKs vs QdQh on one table and saying it is the exact same as AhKd vs QsQc if dealt on the other.

It is not.

They also were not consecutive deals because they were on different tables. The cards were not the same in each hand. Even the ranks were not dealt in the same order.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PokErasmus View Post
Well, the similarity applies to certain characteristics such as nomination of the card, nominations within the set and the odds of such events can be accurately calculated based on that similarities.
This is called subjectivity. You see similarities and make assumptions you cannot prove. A good use of one of the riggedologist commandments, but that is all it is.

Next time choose hands that are actually the same. These were not. Not even close (other then the guy who lost both played both really badly).


Quote:
Originally Posted by PokErasmus View Post
So tell me please, how on the Earth it is possible PS produces such 1:3 billion odds events daily bases?
It is easy. You make stuff up. If you are so secure in your math skills go to the probability forum and post your data there. You will not because the riggedologist home world is the only place you are comfortable in. Prove me wrong and go there and post and defend all of your entropy effect RNG technical facts.



The very different hands are below. I still maintain my stud hands are cooler, and at least I played them both fine.


PokerStars Game #27144826208: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/04/16 4:16:08 ET
Table 'Unukalhai II' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: uwilgetbroke ($44.55 in chips)
Seat 2: Phunbaba23 ($24.35 in chips)
Seat 3: BruceLi ($14.25 in chips)
Seat 4: peky1 ($7.20 in chips)
Seat 5: sevup ($58.20 in chips)
Seat 6: mondo nutz ($39.05 in chips)
Seat 7: tacksamkt ($9.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Suicidalik ($24 in chips)
Seat 9: singerboy1 ($47.60 in chips)
mondo nutz: posts small blind $0.25
tacksamkt: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
ealt to Phunbaba23 [6c 2c Ad 7s]
Suicidalik: folds
singerboy1: calls $0.50
uwilgetbroke: calls $0.50
Phunbaba23: calls $0.50
BruceLi: folds
peky1: folds
sevup: folds
mondo nutz: calls $0.25
tacksamkt: raises $9.10 to $9.60 and is all-in
singerboy1: calls $9.10
uwilgetbroke: raises $34.95 to $44.55 and is all-in
Phunbaba23: calls $23.85 and is all-in
mondo nutz: folds
singerboy1: calls $34.95
*** FLOP *** [Tc Kd As]
*** TURN *** [Tc Kd As] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [Tc Kd As Qd] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
singerboy1: shows [2h 5c 8h 3d] (HI: a pair of Eights)
uwilgetbroke: shows [Ac Js Ah 4d] (HI: a straight, Ten to Ace)
uwilgetbroke collected $40.40 from side pot-2
Phunbaba23: mucks hand
uwilgetbroke collected $43.15 from side pot-1
tacksamkt: mucks hand
uwilgetbroke collected $37 from main pot
No low hand qualified


PokerStars Game #27144828987: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/04/16 4:16:22 ET
Table 'Gaspra' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: seemsIwin ($139.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Phunbaba23 ($39.65 in chips)
Seat 3: tourbiker ($47.60 in chips)
Seat 4: uwilgetbroke ($201.85 in chips)
Seat 5: dwwg ($99.50 in chips)
Seat 6: 49ers2005 ($184.30 in chips)
Seat 8: Domico ($30.35 in chips)
Seat 9: icecrmking ($20 in chips)
Domico: posts small blind $0.50
icecrmking: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Phunbaba23 [2h As 6s 7d]
seemsIwin: folds
Phunbaba23: calls $1
tourbiker: calls $1
uwilgetbroke: folds
dwwg: folds
49ers2005: folds
Domico: calls $0.50
icecrmking: raises $19 to $20 and is all-in
Phunbaba23: calls $19
tourbiker: folds
Domico: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c Jd 9s]
*** TURN *** [9c Jd 9s] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [9c Jd 9s 8d] [Ad]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
icecrmking: shows [Ac 4c Ah Jh] (HI: a full house, Aces full of Nines)
Phunbaba23: mucks hand
icecrmking collected $39.90 from pot
No low hand qualified
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:25 PM   #4406
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
http://www.partygaming.com/prty/en/i...nce/fp_summary

I remember seeing a .pdf posted on 2+2 a few months ago that was very in-depth, but not sure where it was. But I'm sure there's lots of info on that site.
Thanks. Whats net revenue and clean EBITDA?

I think tht numbers refer to how much they win with each game. I would like to know how much the company profits in a year, the total profit, taking out what they spend to keep the bussiness running.


Even if the total profit is 500 million year it is way above I was thinking.
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:31 PM   #4407
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

This was what I was looking for about these two hands
Quote:
PokerStars Game #27144826208: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/04/16 4:16:08 ET
PokerStars Game #27144828987: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/04/16 4:16:22 ET
The rigtards keep complaining that you would never get two hands so similar to each other in a row but as we can see, there have been 2778 other hands dealt in the 14 seconds between them. Given the number of possible permutations available to be dealt in a hand, let's divide that by 2778 and see exactly how likely getting something vaguely similar, such as this example, actually is.

Given how much they seem to always want proof provided to them, I'll leave this as a test for them...both to see if they are willing to actually do some research to get the answers they keep asking for, and to see how good their maths skills actually are
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:34 PM   #4408
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
Thanks. Whats net revenue and clean EBITDA?

I think tht numbers refer to how much they win with each game. I would like to know how much the company profits in a year, the total profit, taking out what they spend to keep the bussiness running.


Even if the total profit is 500 million year it is way above I was thinking.
IIRC Party is a public company on the UK stock exchange. If you want this info just call up a UK broker and ask for a prospectus for Party, or failing that buy a minimum number of shares in the company and then you will get a yearly finanical statement each year at either tax or general meeting time.
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:41 PM   #4409
Monteroy
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Knytestorme View Post
This was what I was looking for about these two hands


The rigtards keep complaining that you would never get two hands so similar to each other in a row but as we can see, there have been 2778 other hands dealt in the 14 seconds between them. Given the number of possible permutations available to be dealt in a hand, let's divide that by 2778 and see exactly how likely getting something vaguely similar, such as this example, actually is.

Umm, hello - look for the secret patterns

PokerStars Game #27144826208: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/04/16 4:16:08 ET
PokerStars Game #27144828987: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/04/16 4:16:22 ET


Take the last 4 digits in hand 1 and add them up and what do you get? 16

Look at hand 2 now the last 4 digits - 8+8 is 16 and 9+7 is 16

Spooky.

Yeah they are 2778 apart but what is 2+7+7? 16! And what is 8 half of? 16!!!!!

Very spooky!

Now look at the times of the hands

16 minutes after the hour!! 16!!!!!!


And now look at your post count - 88. What's 8+8? 16!!!!!!!!!!!

The odds of all of that happening are I would guess 16 billion to 1

Riggedology. It's a special lifestyle choice.
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:42 PM   #4410
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Umm, hello - look for the secret patterns

PokerStars Game #27144826208: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2009/04/16 4:16:08 ET
PokerStars Game #27144828987: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/04/16 4:16:22 ET


Take the last 4 digits in hand 1 and add them up and what do you get? 16

Look at hand 2 now the last 4 digits - 8+8 is 16 and 9+7 is 16

Spooky.

Yeah they are 2778 apart but what is 2+7+7? 16! And what is 8 half of? 16!!!!!

Very spooky!

Now look at the times of the hands

16 minutes after the hour!! 16!!!!!!


And now look at your post count - 88. What's 8+8? 16!!!!!!!!!!!


Riggedology. It's a special lifestyle choice.
lol
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Old 06-07-2009, 09:45 PM   #4411
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Knytestorme View Post
This was what I was looking for about these two hands
That was exactly my point. I thought he was talking about those Omaha hands (which were obviously on different tables unless they were at some weird cash table with increasing blinds...), but who knows, I misunderstand him so often.
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:03 PM   #4412
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition



Over 1/6th of his total posts. SHILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL





(In before "idiotic personal rants")
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:24 PM   #4413
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What site has more bad beats??

Not sure how to make a poll or anything but between Cake and FTP what site do you think has more bad beats. Flame away if necessary
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:25 PM   #4414
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

Definitely FTP. DUCY?
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:28 PM   #4415
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

Looser sites have more bad beats, but not for the reason you think.
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:30 PM   #4416
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

Well I play HU sngs and play well. My stats speak for them self but the things I see on cake is just ridiculous
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:42 PM   #4417
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

Stars has more bad beats now.

PartyPoker used to have the most bad beats, but that was before that infamous legislation.

This is fact, btw, not opinion. Think logically and you'll see why.

OT
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:44 PM   #4418
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

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Originally Posted by Ontario_Tory View Post
Stars has more bad beats now.

PartyPoker used to have the most bad beats, but that was before that infamous legislation.

This is fact, btw, not opinion. Think logically and you'll see why.

OT
This helps a ton since i asked about FTP and Cake lol
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:47 PM   #4419
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

break - you probably don't play well. Your stats probably do speak for 'them self' but probably not in the way you think they do. The things you are seeing at the table probably aren't that ridiculous.

But regardless of all that, FTP has way more bad beats than Cake and it's pretty obvious. I disagree with Mitch that it is a result of the site being looser though. PokerStars is probably the tightest if we include them in the group yet they have way more bad beats than both Cake and FT combined. Here's why!!


Current numbers:
Cake - 6.3k players
FT - 79k payers
Stars - 135k players
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:50 PM   #4420
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

Go look at my stats in my old staking thread and tell me I dont play well because that is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. I am talking about HU sngs mainly. Me and the other regs on cake that I talk to cant believe some of the things we are seeing.
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:53 PM   #4421
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakYaNeck View Post
Go look at my stats in my old staking thread and tell me I dont play well because that is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. I am talking about HU sngs mainly. Me and the other regs on cake that I talk to cant believe some of the things we are seeing.
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:54 PM   #4422
19851987
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

FTP is the king of badbeat.
I mainly play HU Sng. Can't remember how many times my KK lost to A-rag, and my top two pair lost to runner runner trips. Very funny beats on FTP actually.
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:54 PM   #4423
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

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Ok this was funny haha
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:56 PM   #4424
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

UB obv
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Old 06-07-2009, 10:57 PM   #4425
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Re: What site has more bad beats??

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UB obv
I am not talking about rigged cheating sites lol
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