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NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT)
View Poll Results: Who Will Win The Most $ (two weeks)?
Tom Dwan
146 37.73%
Patrik Antonius
59 15.25%
Howard Lederer
56 14.47%
Eli Elezra
11 2.84%
Ilari "Ziigmund" Sahamies
17 4.39%
Phil Ivey
98 25.32%

09-15-2009 , 11:53 AM
I don't get Zigs bet sizing on that hand w/ Ivey. W/ the way the flop, and turn action went down it appears Ivey either had a really strong hand, the same air hand as Zig, or maybe a small chance he had some other air hand that beat Zig.

You're getting c/c'd by the majority of the 1st group. maybe Like A10 folds. And the air groups you have equity against if he can have the same hand as Zig by checking it down. If you wanted Ivey to fold maybe like an ace high or some weird air you wouldn't need to bet 51k there.

Q10, K10 were hands for his range to rep. But I don't think a 51k bet does much more then a 31k bet there except save yourself 20k when called.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dima2000123
Ok, so far so good.
Actually, I like this assumption the least, because it assumed that howard is equally likely to 4bet here with AK than he is with KK+. Kinda hard to say.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dima2000123
OK, so PA makes an obvious call with 22. Flop comes J84. How do you play the hand? Does Howard have AK or AA?
If Howard checks back the AK (he may often because PA's range looks strong) and a blank comes on turn - PA can easily take Howard off the hand. Now, if Howard cbets after PA checks, then PA would probably "correctly" fold the 22. He loses but had the correct odds preflop to flop a set or take it away from Howard's AK. Since PA is getting 2 to 1 immediate odds, this means that if he can get Howard off of AK in any scenario 33% of the time (above example and general not lower than 33% I would argue), it's a good call - not even taking into account set value against possible cbets. So PA doesn't necessarily need to flop a set and have Howard flop an A or K (altho this is another added juicy scenario which isn't that far-fetched, esp given 9.5to1 stack/pot odds); PA already has enough equity and fold eq to call pf against AK. And enough implied odds to call with 22 against AA.

Last edited by Veil; 09-15-2009 at 12:07 PM.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:00 PM
That Q9 reraise on the river by Dwan is too sick

VERY thin
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:08 PM
Anywhere that I can watch last weeks episodes ? I only see this weeks on the nbc site.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize
Anywhere that I can watch last weeks episodes ? I only see this weeks on the nbc site.
When you're in the player for this week, go to "Poker" under the shows category on the left.
Last week is match 48.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kratos
That Q9 reraise on the river by Dwan is too sick

VERY thin
not really
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:24 PM
i think ivey has a live read on durrr and can tell when he has a really good hand, particularly pf. i've seen a few times now when durrr wakes up with something pf, ivey gets this look on his face and folds. maybe just coincidence. i think this week is going to be better because the players are taking it more serious now it seems.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veil
Allow me to respond with a very easy way to look at it.

Assumption 1: Let's say PA is putting Howard on KK+ and AK.

We have: 6kk hands, 6 aa hands and 16 ak hands against an unknown PA hand. As you can hopefully see, AK is the fav hand to have here at 4:3.

Assumption 2: 9.5 to 1 is not a 'low stack to pot ratio.' Flopping a set is a lot less than this. If PA feels Howard has KK+, it isn't unreasonable to assume he can stack him a high amount of the time.

Assumption 3: PA knows these basics odds and that it would be correct to call with any pair including deuces.

Assumption 4: PA believes Howard's most likely hand is probably AK - so not only is his immediate odds great at 2:1, but it would be strange to fold a hand with easily the correct equity, like 56suited, let alone fold eq. Despite being oop. For the record, 56suited is 33% to win against KK+,AK checking it down.

Assumption 5: If PA knows your tiny range - he is going to call with a wide range with good immediate and implied odds because he is going to be getting it in good and folding out worse hands a very high amount of the time.

Assumption 6: The fact that this takes place in ep is almost irrelevant. It is 6max so I would hardly even call this early positioning. PA can limp and reraise with a wide range of hands utg against anyone, especially with dead money in the pot. In fact I think he's more likely to do it with something like a suited connector than he is with KK+.
please get married, have many many kids, introduced them to poker and then teach them everything you know.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nih han
please get married, have many many kids, introduced them to poker and then teach them everything you know.
Hey wow that is really funny.



I'm actually watching this right now: http://www.pokertube.com/Movies.aspx?movie=4214

I know it's a much diff hand obv but PA instantly calls a 4bet with 99 oop against a pretty tight opp. Not as deep as on pad. Hmm that patrik sure plays weird...
He then turns his hand into a bluff on a king high flop by check raising.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 01:08 PM
I wonder if Howard does coaching

So i can learn from him and do the exact opposite

He played those Jacks so well... Oh and the 10's...
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kratos
That Q9 reraise on the river by Dwan is too sick

VERY thin
I agree. I would think a call would be better, maybe someone overcalls, plus I think he's bluffing too infrequently there to get called by a worse hand (although it is Eli).
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize
Anywhere that I can watch last weeks episodes ? I only see this weeks on the nbc site.
just open this weak on left side under shows says poker click there and last weak is match 48 you should work it out.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 02:27 PM
Boy Zigmund is getting KILLED.

Seems like he's down a bunch to Ivey in red/black, and a bunch more in poker.

The damage is over half a million right now, right?
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 02:30 PM
[QUOTE=aaaaa45;13142018]
Quote:
Originally Posted by wtfbbqs
patrik is by far the nittiest player at this table, he always is nitty, he just always hits and always gets paid, every single show ive seen him this is how its been, every big pot he wins he has the stone cold nuts, never makes many hero call downs and doesnt get much money in with even suited rags. if it works for him it works for him.QUOTE]

Antonius plays almost as many hands as Dwan. He is currently involved in the Durr challenge (thats more than enough to prove him not being a nit) and every big cash game on TV.

On HSP he called Laak's(who is a nit) preflop raise with 10-4. He then called his bet on the flop,37k bet on turn, and 80k bet on river to win a 280k pot with only BOTTOM PAIR.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFCstGpEgCI
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09-15-2009 , 02:30 PM
I'm interested to see how this lineup will change the dynamics of the table. PA having position on Ivey having position on Dwan.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 03:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kratos
That Q9 reraise on the river by Dwan is too sick

VERY thin
Raising on that board in a 4way pot is just plain bad. Your hand isn't even good that often.

Betting/Raising modest/weak draws in multiway pots got Sahamies and Dwan in trouble on this episode. 4 way pots mean someone probably has something = you are just valuetowning yourself and getting yourself checkraised.

Better to play more passively with modest draws in multiway pots, as Dwan did last week with his Q9s vs PA's AT.

Ivey owned Sahamies, knew he was on a draw and just extracted maximum. Sahamies is a fish in this lineup, perhaps moreso than Eli.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veil
when know-it-alls get confronted and lose an argument they always run away. It's almost sad. Funny how not once did blanco give a decent response as to why PA can't have a wide range there a fair amount of the time.
because he's not terrible at poker.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 03:40 PM
Wow Ivey played that T2 hand perfectly. Absolute maximum value, was great to watch. Like the "hmm" face followed by the quick call on the end, awesome.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 03:55 PM
Eli and Howard play their hands so face up its pretty funny.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hendrix23
I don't get Zigs bet sizing on that hand w/ Ivey. W/ the way the flop, and turn action went down it appears Ivey either had a really strong hand, the same air hand as Zig, or maybe a small chance he had some other air hand that beat Zig.

You're getting c/c'd by the majority of the 1st group. maybe Like A10 folds. And the air groups you have equity against if he can have the same hand as Zig by checking it down. If you wanted Ivey to fold maybe like an ace high or some weird air you wouldn't need to bet 51k there.

Q10, K10 were hands for his range to rep. But I don't think a 51k bet does much more then a 31k bet there except save yourself 20k when called.

yea he really just did seemed to go with fishy line of maybe if i bet more he'll fold thinking...

Ivey played the hand good raised big on flop, potted turn and checked river for ziigy to bet his 98 j9s etc..
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 04:12 PM
In the hand where Dwan held Q9, I'm not sure why he checked turn. I guess he is trying to disguise all his draws by checking.
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 04:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmj05
I agree. I would think a call would be better, maybe someone overcalls, plus I think he's bluffing too infrequently there to get called by a worse hand (although it is Eli).
Eli can't fold a Q, raise fold there is perfectly fine that deep.
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09-15-2009 , 04:28 PM
What does Ivey keep writing down?
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbax9888
What does Ivey keep writing down?
Prop bets and keeping track of losses and wins
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote
09-15-2009 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize
Anywhere that I can watch last weeks episodes ? I only see this weeks on the nbc site.

Utub+e
NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) Quote

      
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