Knowing how much Tom is running good, and the stack sizes, and his willingness to gamble, I'd argue that, even though a fold is the right play.

its kind of annoying how good tom dwan runs imo...

yeah he ran well here. There's times he doesn't run well. But that flop check with the flush draw combined with him putting together the hand well enough to make that sick river value raise makes him awesome.

There are very few people who can make that river value raise IMO.

The new episode is now up @ http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/23011821 fwiw



A peculiar thing I have noticed: more interesting the lineup, the more attractive Leeann looks.

I agree. Tom's check on the flop did hide the fact that he had the flush draw.

And with Antonius betting 32,000, Tom deciphered correctly that he's betting big for value on the river only with either AQ or 10x. Since Tom had the Q blocker, it made it easier to figure out the kind of hand that Antonius had and Tom correctly put him on.

Lol Antonius getting specific with the Sushi. I had Salmon Sashimi tonight myself

how is that a sick river value raise? seems pretty mandatory. raise fold ftw.

This. But if you listened to Ali Nejad, he pretty much echoed the sentiments of the people who are saying it was a sick raise. They are both really deep and a lot of players would be (incorrectly) afraid of getting raised off their hand. A player would have to be ridiculously sick to shove like 200K (500 BBs!) on that river with a hand worse than a Q-high flush though (including a stone cold bluff, obviously).

This is why props should die on PAD. We had a hand where Antonius was thinking about a $64k call, which should be one of the biggest events of the week. However, it's made to look rather less significant because of two idiots passing $50k back and forth every flop.

+1

2 weeks.

Even more importantly, it affects the way they play their hands. I don't want to see guys 3 betting garbage PF based on the color of their cards just to get people to fold so they won't have to see a -EV flop for their stupid prop bet. I love watching these guys play but it seems that they're not taking these stakes seriously (except ironically Lederer, probably the richest guy at the table). They need to raise the stakes and ban these stupid props.

Biggest Level ITT! and theres alot!

Props suck.

The river raise in the Durrrr vs Antonius hand is sick because Antonius pretty much pots the river and Durrrr only has a Q high flush on a paired board. The thing is, the way Antonius played it, hes very unlikely to have Tx in his range.

Looks to me Tom has major crush on Ivey he giggles everytime he is speaking to him.

why is ivey limping 32o? he definitely plays unconventional

How is that? He called preflop... there are a lot of hands with a T that call preflop. He checked to Dwan after flopping trips and didn't get any value on the flop. So he bet the turn and bet the river. He is definitely getting value here on the river if Dwan has like any Q or hell even any pair for that matter, since Antonious could feasibly bet the turn and then bluff this river with a hand like KJ or J9s.

Also, Antonious could easily play a worse flush the same way. So there are plenty of hands that Dwan is beating, several of which can call a raise, and only a few that are beating him... a flopped full house or quads, the unlikely QT (Dwan has one of the Qs) an A-high flush, or KsJs (the only suited-K hand that Antonious is likely to have given Dwan's hand and the board).

Because they were both red. When the flop is black, he wins 50K from ziigmund. Since he has 2 red cards, it is more likely that the flop is black, so he wants to get in there and ensure that he gets to see a flop.

Dwan expected more lower flushes in Antonius's range rather than Tx. I don't think you realize how unconventional Antonius's flop check is on a flush draw flop in a 5 or 6 way pot with trips first to act.

considering dwan had the lead, i'd say it's slightly more conventional to check first to act. I hope you realise it's like 85% no one has 2 spades there (in a vac). And even if they do, they're probably going to bet it the majority of the time, given the aggressive field.

yes, thats why Antonius checked the flop, because if anybody had spades or a hand like 88, most of the time they are betting the flop.

I still believe with the way the betting went down, Dwan expected more lower flushes there than Tx.

cbf reading this whole thread but

durrrr: omgomg everyone wanna play deuce seven?
PA: yeah sure
Eli: yeah man im in
Zig: wateva
Howard: sigh.. no thanks u internet guys are so hyper agro sigh
Eli: that makes it easier for u howie..
Howard: oh, yeah cool count me in
Zig: ya watever
PA: So.. when i bluff and win pot errbody pay me 2sousand?
Durrr: .. OMGOMG YES!!! LETS PLAY deuce seven..

Phil: "No"

/discussion

lol poor howard

phil: him and mike were rappin the other night
pa: in finnish?
phil: yea didnt understand it but was funny
ziig : iiii was lil drunk
howard: mike and who?
phil: "never mind"

In all honesty Tom always says his strategy is to just run well. I think most people think he is just being a sarcastic douche, but I believe him more and more when he is on tv.