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NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT) NEW Poker After Dark - "Top Guns" - Weeks of Sept. 7 - 14 Who Wins The Most $? (Spoilers ITT)
View Poll Results: Who Will Win The Most $ (two weeks)?
Tom Dwan
146 37.73%
Patrik Antonius
59 15.25%
Howard Lederer
56 14.47%
Eli Elezra
11 2.84%
Ilari "Ziigmund" Sahamies
17 4.39%
Phil Ivey
98 25.32%

09-10-2009 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blankoblanco
for christ's sake PA called a 4bet out of position from the least creative player at the table after he himself limp-reraised, all of which took place in EP. hint: his range for doing this is really, really, really freakin' narrow. he practically doesn't have a 9 in his range
You may need a better imagination. PA is very and easily capable of doing this with any two. And I'm not sure which game you are watching, but Howard has been the most active player at the table; being in the most pots - so PA does not need a hand to limp 3bet Howard - AT ALL. Once Howard 4bets, okay I agree , his range is very polarised to KK+ and maybe AK - but do you think PA is going to fold for 15k with the pot at 30k, with like 78s pretty deep and Howard's range being transparent??! Now he can really push the bluff since it must look obvious to Howard that PA knows what Howard has. So it seems like it wouldn't make sense for PA to be betting anything that can't beat KK+/AK.

Now, anything beating AA is a very small part of PA's range visa vis his bluffing range mathematically. Indeed, imo (obv, and from watching PA play quite a lot, and siding with maths) I would expect PA to show up with bluffs more often (a lot more?) than anything else here.
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09-10-2009 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veil
You may need a better imagination. PA is very and easily capable of doing this with any two. And I'm not sure which game you are watching, but Howard has been the most active player at the table; being in the most pots - so PA does not need a hand to limp 3bet Howard - AT ALL. Once Howard 4bets, okay I agree , his range is very polarised to KK+ and maybe AK - but do you think PA is going to fold for 15k with the pot at 30k, with like 78s pretty deep and Howard's range being transparent??! Now he can really push the bluff since it must look obvious to Howard that PA knows what Howard has. So it seems like it wouldn't make sense for PA to be betting anything that can't beat KK+/AK.

Now, anything beating AA is a very small part of PA's range visa vis his bluffing range mathematically. Indeed, imo (obv, and from watching PA play quite a lot, and siding with maths) I would expect PA to show up with bluffs more often (a lot more?) than anything else here.

I agree with your analysis of PA preflop. He could have plenty of hands. But he should realize Howard has KK+ Which means trying to bluff post-flop is pretty dumb. And Howard should know this also. It looked like he did. Which is why he had such a tough call and then was so relieved to be chopping. His AA should never be the winning hand as played, unless there is some unknown dynamics at work....
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09-10-2009 , 01:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veil
You may need a better imagination. PA is very and easily capable of doing this with any two. And I'm not sure which game you are watching, but Howard has been the most active player at the table; being in the most pots - so PA does not need a hand to limp 3bet Howard - AT ALL. Once Howard 4bets, okay I agree , his range is very polarised to KK+ and maybe AK - but do you think PA is going to fold for 15k with the pot at 30k, with like 78s that deep and Howard's range being transparent??! Now he can really push the bluff since it must look obvious to Howard that PA knows what Howard has. So it seems like it wouldn't make sense for PA to be betting anything that can't beat KK+/AK.

Now, anything beating AA is a very small part of PAs range, pas range is polarised. Indeed, imo (obv, and from watching PA play quite a lot, and siding with maths) I would expect PA to show up with bluffs more often (a lot more?) than anything else here.
cliffnotes:

-PA limp3bets any two because he thinks howard is super LAG due to being in quite a few pots over the past 30 hands

-PA then calls a 4bet out of position w/ any two to try to crack AA/KK or bluff him out, with ~45k in the pot and ~100k behind (i.e. enough for 2 bets)

ty for educating us as always veil
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09-10-2009 , 01:23 AM
blanko, stop making sense plz, it's less funny than ready everyone else's totally wrong analysis
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09-10-2009 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blankoblanco

-PA limp3bets any two because he thinks howard is super LAG due to being in quite a few pots over the past 30 hands
Why are you so immature? Misrepresenting what I say with sarcasm isn't a good way to win arguments. No, HL hasn't been playing super lag, but he has been in a lot of pots, so it isn't unreasonable to assume that PA may think that HL is making a move. Hence it follows that PA can easily have anything to limp/3bet howard - esp with dwan's dead money in there. Now, even if we assume that PA thinks HL is 3betting with a strong-ish range - it is again reasonable to assume that PA thinks he can get Howard to fold a hand like, say JJ or AQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by blankoblanco
-PA then calls a 4bet out of position w/ any two to try to crack AA/KK or bluff him out, with ~45k in the pot and ~100k behind (i.e. enough for 2 bets)
I must admit I thought the hand was bigger and HL rebought for 200k. But any-who. HL starts with 134k minus the 4bet of 21k = 113k. PA needs to call 15k with 30k in pot + 113k behind Howard. = 9.5 to 1. You say PA would fold 22? And let's use hindsight; by the way the hand was played we see that PA thinks Howard has AK a good amount. Therefore PA is not going to fold 34s.

EDIT: I like how you say "2 bets" yet just merely watching the hand played you see one way of so many ways in which Howard could have folded AA. He came very close to folding the turn, and you're the one recommending it!!! If Howard has KK and an A flops (22%) - Howard is probably folding easily to big or any action really. PA isn't calling to bluff Howard off AA but I don't think it's far-fetched to envision a way in which PA thinks he can get Howard off the hand given a particular board texture - when he's getting 2 to 1 against a transparent range. You need to keep a very open mind when playing this game. And PA knows this and can be a very creative player. Watch some of The Game (Swedish cash game) if you haven't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blankoblanco
ty for educating us as always veil
Again with the sarcasm. It seems like you are the one with the chip on the shoulder trying to educate everyone with how dumb we all are. I'm just arguing. Hey we see the hand differently - doesn't mean you have to gloat about being 'so smart.' We were actually agreeing that from Howard's perspective it looks like PA must have him beat. Unless you can go to the next level like I mentioned - in which PA can have more bluffs here.

Last edited by Veil; 09-10-2009 at 02:08 AM.
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09-10-2009 , 01:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnivore
I agree with your analysis of PA preflop. He could have plenty of hands. But he should realize Howard has KK+ Which means trying to bluff post-flop is pretty dumb. And Howard should know this also. It looked like he did. Which is why he had such a tough call and then was so relieved to be chopping.
A-ha! This is precisely why it's so good to bluff! The perfect opportunity since it looks so unlikely to be a bluff. This is what I said at the end of the post. It looks like to Howard that PA knows what Howard has. So how can PA be bluffing? Because PA knows this!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnivore
His AA should never be the winning hand as played, unless there is some unknown dynamics at work....
He thought HL had AK too often to fold it is my guess - and I guess pa thought howard thought pa had nothing much or AK as well, despite preflop action and flop action. Actually I don't think PA thought it through much tbh
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09-10-2009 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veil
A-ha! This is precisely why it's so good to bluff! The perfect opportunity since it looks so unlikely to be a bluff. This is what I said at the end of the post. It looks like to Howard that PA knows what Howard has. So how can PA be bluffing? Because PA knows this!
If they were twice as deep, I agree. But in general, after 4betting to 21.2k with 100K behind and AA, HL is pretty much always getting it in. Even when it means saying "thank god" when he sees his opponents chop hand.
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09-10-2009 , 02:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnivore
If they were twice as deep, I agree. But in general, after 4betting to 21.2k with 100K behind and AA, HL is pretty much always getting it in. Even when it means saying "thank god" when he sees his opponents chop hand.
People are advocating for him to fold on the turn - so if it's a bit of a 'bad' call then it's a good move by PA. Howard isn't always getting it in. He didn't push flop and studied hard on turn.

I know PA is OOP, but he is up against a player who he probably thinks is much weaker than him and weak/tight - with a transparent range.
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09-10-2009 , 02:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veil
People are advocating for him to fold on the turn - so if it's a bit of a 'bad' call then it's a good move by PA. Howard isn't always getting it in. He didn't push flop and studied hard on turn.
.
I think only flops with with K on them make Howard think about this. Maybe Q also.

The only boards HL might really have folded on were like KKJT or KJT9 I think.
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09-10-2009 , 02:43 AM
OMG.. 300/600/1200/2400/4800 ! nice !
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09-10-2009 , 02:44 AM
howard will go busto again
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09-10-2009 , 02:44 AM
fold howard, you wussy
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09-10-2009 , 02:46 AM
lol nah lets just waste 3 minutes of the show
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09-10-2009 , 03:03 AM
Howard Lederer has made a good living as a poker pro. He has two wsop braclets, which makes him the only one with any besides Phil Ivey at the table.

I can only hope to be a Nit like him someday.
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09-10-2009 , 03:19 AM
yeah because bracelets mean so much =)
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09-10-2009 , 03:26 AM
So much Howard hate ITT.
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09-10-2009 , 03:42 AM
the term "pro" gets splashed around too much, imo the only "pros" at the table would be Ivey, Dwan and PA
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09-10-2009 , 03:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rizzn
the term "pro" gets splashed around too much, imo the only "pros" at the table would be Ivey, Dwan and PA
Just to make sure: is, for you, "pro" a complimentary title given arbitrarily to players you regard highly or does it simply and objectively mean "professional"? In the latter case I'd really like to hear why Ziigmund is not a professional poker player.
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09-10-2009 , 03:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kclclclclfhg
Just to make sure: is, for you, "pro" a complimentary title given arbitrarily to players you regard highly or does it simply and objectively mean "professional"? In the latter case I'd really like to hear why Ziigmund is not a professional poker player.
I contemplated for a while about putting Ziigy up there too but from what i've seen of him live and in the high stakes threads on 2+2 he is very reckless with his money and havent really seen any plays from him that make me go "wow, what a great player".. for example this week him calling All in with the J high flush draw, im not saying that a terrible play because of all the props that were going on, but still shows how loose he is

this is just my opinion of course, I don't mind that others would call him a pro and I wouldnt argue with them, just like some others would call Eli or Howard a pro
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09-10-2009 , 03:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rizzn
the term "pro" gets splashed around too much, imo the only "pros" at the table would be Ivey, Dwan and PA
What?

I'm pretty sure all of them at the table qualify as pros.

HL has won over 5 mill in tournaments and who knows how much in cash games over the span of many years. Regardless of whether you like him or not, it is dishonest to claim that he does not qualify as a pro.
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09-10-2009 , 03:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rizzn
the term "pro" gets splashed around too much, imo the only "pros" at the table would be Ivey, Dwan and PA
If you are making your living playing poker...you're a professional, good or bad.
BTW, they might be considered 'Top Guns' by some, but, on TV, their entertainment value is way below their stack size...boring ! Give me of a little of Aejones, please.
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09-10-2009 , 03:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montius
What?

I'm pretty sure all of them at the table qualify as pros.

HL has won over 5 mill in tournaments and who knows how much in cash games over the span of many years. Regardless of whether you like him or not, it is dishonest to claim that he does not qualify as a pro.
how much you have won in tournaments =/= your entitlement to "pro" status
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09-10-2009 , 03:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rizzn
how much you have won in tournaments =/= your entitlement to "pro" status
But some silly subjective criteria of what you think does?
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09-10-2009 , 03:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aqalung...
If you are making your living playing poker...you're a professional, good or bad.
I guess this is a fair statement to make

but I believe Howard and Eli both make the majority of their living away from the poker table

So i might have been a little harsh not putting ziigmund on the list
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09-10-2009 , 04:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rizzn
how much you have won in tournaments =/= your entitlement to "pro" status
level?
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