One-way ticket to Vegas, let's see how it goes...

After more thought, 39k seems pretty easy for a player of sols caliber. Maybe 4/3 or something along those lines. I work 40-50 hrs a week and I put in 206.41 hrs over last 3 months (July-Sep). He should have no trouble putting in 480 hours.

Guys the line is all over the place. I got lots of people saying 2:1, a few say 1:1 is fair, then some guys pop in and say 5:1. I am really weirded out.

Anyway it's just theoretical. In practice I don't care about winning 39k in 90 days, I just want to make the most amount over the entire period I am there, but I'll definitely say that I am a lot more optimistic about my chances than most think.

I also think I will put something like 550 hours, 500 at the minimum. I don't have many friends or women or activities to distract me aside from maybe working out and such. I live very close to the casino and restaurants. Nothing is really going to stop me from just waking up and grinding, going to sleep, then repeat.

I can be a bit of a robot when I get obsessed.

While the games are more shallow I think 80/hour is not THAT ridiculous. I recall people saying a good hourly at 5/10 and 10/20 live is like $100, but in my experience 80~ is, whilst very solid for 5/5, definitely achievable.

I forgot, but miami, sabr, and you guys who do well at 5/5, what do you put your hourly at in your usual game, and what do you put it at in a game with $700 buyin (but according to friend, gets pretty deep)?

lol if I bet though I must add a clause that if I get a medical condition I get to pause the bet and recommence later. I can't imagine it'd be good if I get a manic-depressive episode halfway through.

fwiw that's the funny thing. It's hard to get good performance and volume with poker due to stress, but in my experience, poker is probably one of the less stressful things I do. I find my studies, writing, and computer gaming to be actually far more stressful and likely to burn me out and get me into a rut. I think I will probably be clocking 650+ hours in reality. I'll like, literally have no life for 3 months. That's my plan.

yea I dont recall you ever stressing over poker

usually its

family
school
depression

poker is always; "yea ran 20k under ev today" or "beat up ike in the 1ks"

My hourly in my 2/5 game at Foxwoods (500cap) fluctatues between 45-50.

I played in Vegas (1k buy-in) for 2 weeks and got in 150 hrs at $50/hr but I lost 2 massive pots that I misplayed horribly (probably due to over-volume tbh) and that would put it around 70 in those games. The games were also significantly softer then the 2/5 games at Foxwoods.

Given fatigue and the fact that you will almost certainly get drained I would take like about 2 bb off your normal hourly, this is also assuming rake structure and the amount of games running is roughly the same.

I won't post exact figures but for 2/5 with 500 max its well over $80/hr since january

expand on computer gaming being stressful?

props that's some serious grind rob.

reg @ foxwoods myself (mostly 1/2 since I busted my roll getting married, but ill pm you sometime when Im up there if you ever want to talk strat)

Sure let me know! Eating alone gets depressing sometimes lol

Yeah, family's a pretty big factor, but I think I've fixed a lot of those things and it's helped, though trying to get that visa issue worked could get quite frustrating. Hopefully it gets resolved smoothly.

I play starcraft a bunch and other RTS, and (although this applies to online poker too) in my experience, lag is the one thing that causes me to swear the most, next to talking to people like dhcg trying to explain my philosophical beliefs as he trolls me.

I used to play quite competitively, was top 100 a bit and top 200 for most of my stint playing CnC3. Also played a lot of WC3 with less success. I was never a great player but I played at reasonably serious level. I cared about the results of a game sometimes a lot more than I do with poker.

In poker I've learnt to accept that $ results are not directly correlated to my performance.

In computer games, it has a much higher correlation, and I blame myself a lot more when I lose and it's stressful.

Thanks for that miami. Yeah I have decent numbers for those stakes too but I only have about 200 hours so I was unsure how to think of them. I both think it's too low and too high at the same time; that data is semi skewed by some pretty bad sessions including the one where I lost a 9k pot, so I feel like I ran bad, but I also sort of feel that it can't be that easy to win so much money at 5/5 otherwise why would more players play it, which isn't exactly stellar logic but it makes me cautious in saying that very high hourlies are reasonable.

Rob - where did you play and stay in Vegas?

This got me thinking about my first 5/10nl shot and trying to remember how it went. Looked at some old facebook posts that I made during my first wsop summer in vegas in 07.

It went well! I didn't put a total winnings, but after reading what I wrote I think I recall around +$4.5k.

Stayed at Ballys for 10 days, CP for 4... Played at Venetian like 12 days, one at Aria and a little bit at Wynn.

Kept a pretty detailed TR

it is easy to win money at 5/5

here are some of the difficulties

a) most people suck so hard they dont even beat poker.
b) the BR of 5/5 needs to be much much higher dollar wise than most games
c) many people focus on the physical value of the money, and because of the 500nl is scary, perhaps an unnecessary risk, and often tilt inducing

I won between 160-200 can't quite recall. But I limp raised then triple barrelled in a terrible spot. Got lucky he folded the river. I repped AA/Kk/AK only

I see I also won $2.4k my first 10/20nl shot.

Maybe I am just jaded but I think the winrates here are during rungood or w/e. I had like a 200 hour stretch where I was ~100 $/hr but I have had a huge break even streak. However, it could be a statistical outlier or just me being a ****ty player. I put in my current winrate/standard deviation into the variance calculator and over 100 runs like it only occurs 5% of the time over 100k hands which leads me to believe that my current stats are either inaccurate or that I am running really really badly.

Obviously over the past 200 hours I have some "bad plays" but I have had weird **** happen like last session this passive player does this:

nit limps UTG few other limpers, I complete SB with 87cc, passive player raises BB to 25 with like 350 behind, nit calls, I call.

Flop is 65T pot is 100
I check, passive player bets 45, nit calls, I call

Turn is the 9
I check, passive player checks, nit checks

River is the K
I bet 65 or 85, passive player like immediately ships, the nit folds

I wanted to bet/fold the river to try to get value from AK or some weird 2 pair and I mean the passive player is repping solely AQ and I should have called since statistically he is probably over playing KK/AK the ~5% of the time he needs to but I folded like a donkey and he flips over AK.

My biggest leak right now is playing OOP vs lags, I need to stop bet/calling and start check/calling.

Also I raised a river bet last session on a T6753 with a red 99 and got called by T3os. fml.

I played a really bad hand where I had QQ and bet an 872r board into a lag after I raised pf, he flats, turn is the 3 (for bd hearts) he raises to 165 then ships the river for pot on an off suit 3 and its such an easy fold but I called. fml again.

if he was stuck a bunch it would have been an easy call but he was up huge and succeeded in floating the flop with 33 and backed into quads. Sick life.

200 hrs * 30 hands/hr = 6000 hands.

Or, < 1 week of online play. So, results will vary widely between 200hr samples.

why did u check the turned nuts

Variance is lower, win rates are higher, which means BE should be much less frequent.

Well getting KK in vs 92os for like 1k on a 965 board and having him river a straight and getting 99 in vs KK on a K98 board in a straddled 3 bet pot for 1.7k doesn't really help the winrate.

I checked the turned nuts because I thought villains range was QQ+ and I wanted him to bet, the nit to call with his FD or w/e then I'd chr where if I pot it and the passive player reraises the nit might fold his FD and I lose dead money in the pot.

hmmm study for FE exam or go play poker....

+1

I've always enjoyed action... Fold Equity exam sounds nitty.