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Old 02-05-2009, 06:47 PM   #451
JH1
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River View Post
As a Canadian. living in one of the coldest capital cities in the world, all I have to say about global warming is:

Bring it on!!!

Sorry, I just don't see the downside and Al Gore should STFU. Fossil fuels and CFCs for everyone!
+1

David Suzuki tours this country in a massive diesel bus - because converting his bus to biodiesel would "cost too much" - doing his part to contribute to warming up this country while telling the rest of us to keep it cold by taking the bus (vastly different buses obviously). Does not compute.

I guess I'll go out and get my own tour bus now.

nuff said.
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Old 02-05-2009, 06:54 PM   #452
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Obviously you should play as much as you can if you have an edge. If you have an edge at the less juicy times, add them in; if you lose during the non-juicy times, cut them out.

If you can only play your best for 3 or 4 hours, then you should try to play the juiciest times. But if you can beat the less juicy times and you can grind at your best for a long enough period to include the less juicy games, do it.

I always think of this in terms of the hourly rate that I charged as a lawyer. I had some high volume clients--insurance companies--that sent me scores of cases a year, and, therefore, were charged a lower hourly rate than my usual and customary rate the one off clients paid. But I still spent time on the lower paying cases.

Had I chosen to, I could have turned down all the low paying cases, made good money and worked fewer hours--my hourly would have gone up, but my total income would have gone down if i had only worked the juicy cases.
Yes, that's an answer I would like to get, because really.
I am in such an sick grind mode. Yesterday I played 9 hours and I want to keep going and going.
I want to find a balance where I play 6 hours a day. 3 in the morning (so it will be at night for america), and 3 in the morning so i hit the european nights
In the afternoon I want to focus on school

I also want to play a lot because of rakeback, if I play 6 hours a day, that will mean I play 100K or hands a month, that will be very good for rakeback
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Old 02-05-2009, 06:59 PM   #453
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

not many jellyfish, but good amount of sting rays
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Old 02-05-2009, 07:00 PM   #454
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

I always hated Jellyfish, those bitches just hit you hard and you feel like ****..

Sting rays, what's that?

Why is bitches not censored, and **** is?

Doesn't 2p2 like women?
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Old 02-05-2009, 07:10 PM   #455
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

JH1: *****.
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Old 02-05-2009, 07:23 PM   #456
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

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JH1: *****.
i did back in december but i survived.
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Old 02-05-2009, 08:19 PM   #457
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDataKid View Post
Question for some of the people here that grind more then 5 hours a day:

There are mixed ideas about this: You should play the juicy hours, but that really means you can only grind 3/4 hours a day?

Does it mean you should avoid the other hours? Or do they mean: You should play the juicy hours, and play the other hours?

I don't know why but I seem to run best during the day.
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Old 02-05-2009, 08:42 PM   #458
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

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Originally Posted by McAvoy View Post
I don't know why but I seem to run best during the day.
The games in the day are, on average, nittier than at night. So if you play a pretty aggressive game those games might actually match up better with your style.

or it could just be variance, lol.
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Old 02-05-2009, 08:52 PM   #459
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Okay lets have an EV problem discussion.

You are in a Las Vegas Casino, and you pay $2.50 to spin a wheel that pays out the following values, with probabilities of each:

$1 at 0.4 prob
$2 at 0.3 prob
$3 at 0.2 prob
$4 at 0.1 prob

For $2.50 you can spin the wheel three times, and you can either take the value of the spin or spin again.

What is the EV for a single spin?

What is the optimal strategy for the series of spins? Is it +EV?

P.S.
I added this because I made a statement about decision theory and how it effects EV. Sorry for this but spent the last week with a Mathematician that specializes in Game Theory, Probability and Decision analysis and we went through about 100 problems.
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Old 02-05-2009, 09:01 PM   #460
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

mpethy are you going to bring Halle back ever? Not that there's anything wrong with your avatar.

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Old 02-05-2009, 09:04 PM   #461
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

LOL such sick river value bets (yes I know I play horrible)


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 29956
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $59.40
BB: $55.25
Hero (UTG): $50.00
UTG+1: $46.30
MP1: $52.00
MP2: $50.00
CO: $57.60
BTN: $68.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 3 8 J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($5.25) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, BTN folds

River: ($12.25) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, UTG+1 calls $5.50

Spoiler:
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Old 02-05-2009, 09:09 PM   #462
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptVimes View Post
mpethy are you going to bring Halle back ever? Not that there's anything wrong with your avatar.

yeah, I was just thinking earlier today this joke has probably run its course.
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Old 02-05-2009, 09:15 PM   #463
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

^ Sammy's question

I may have done this completely wrong, but:

$1*0.4 + $2*0.3 + $3*0.2 + $4*0.1 = $2 EV for a single spin.

Therefore, optimal would be to quit when you hit $3 or $4. Odds of totally missing $3 or $4 in 3 spins is 0.7*0.7*0.7 = 34.3%

34.3% of the time you hit $2 or less in 3 spins.
65.7% of the time you hit $3 or more in 3 spins.

42.8% of the time that you hit $2 or less you hit $2.
57.2% of the time that you hit $2 or less you hit $1.

66.7% of the time that you hit $3 or more you hit $3.
33.3% of the time that you hit $3 or more you hit $4.

0.343(0.428*2 + 0.572*1) + 0.657(0.667*3 + 0.333*4)
= 0.343(1.428) + 0.657(3.333)
= 0.490 + 2.190
= 2.68

Therefore this game is slightly +EV if you follow my rules and you should expect a ROI of 7.2%.

There is probably a better way to play if you are planning on doing multiple spins. ie. probably something about stopping if you hit $2 on the second spin to avoid taking a 40% risk on hitting $1 on the 3rd spin. This would make it much more +EV in the long run I think but I'm not sure how to figure it out. The 3rd spin obviously does not rely on whether or not you missed $3-$4 on the 1st and 2nd spins.

(I'm probably way off here and would easily get suckered into this game that is most likely -EV due to my bad math skills)

Last edited by JH1; 02-05-2009 at 09:21 PM.
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Old 02-05-2009, 11:45 PM   #464
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Brag: I got my C dive expanded in Parallels / Windows.

Beat: Poker tracker no longer runs and I have serious doubts I'll ever be able to figure it out.

Variance: I hate Windows.
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Old 02-05-2009, 11:50 PM   #465
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by SammyG-SD View Post
Okay lets have an EV problem discussion.

You are in a Las Vegas Casino, and you pay $2.50 to spin a wheel that pays out the following values, with probabilities of each:

$1 at 0.4 prob
$2 at 0.3 prob
$3 at 0.2 prob
$4 at 0.1 prob

For $2.50 you can spin the wheel three times, and you can either take the value of the spin or spin again.

What is the EV for a single spin?

What is the optimal strategy for the series of spins? Is it +EV?

P.S.
I added this because I made a statement about decision theory and how it effects EV. Sorry for this but spent the last week with a Mathematician that specializes in Game Theory, Probability and Decision analysis and we went through about 100 problems.
Spoiler:
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Old 02-06-2009, 12:49 AM   #466
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by pheisar View Post
So your majoring in economics, what are your goals professionaly?
To work for a profitable firm. Although I'll probably end up working for the government since they're forcing "bailout" money down the throats of responsible businesses.
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Old 02-06-2009, 01:01 AM   #467
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

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Originally Posted by Conan776 View Post
Whine whine whine. Admit it: deep down you didn't really want to be in the Obama administration.

For example?

What kinda kool aid you drinking there, Zenz?

Anyone who doesn't think society wouldn't have collapsed without FDR's work programs knows nothing about history. The only reason Social Security seems like a bad idea now is because advances in medical sciences which couldn't have been forseen at the time.

If you want to live in a truly free market economy, you should move to Somalia or Western Sudan and see such systems in action, imo.

Poverty porn?
Pretty much everything in the new deal expanded the powers of the federal government.

The Kool Aid I'm drinking can be briefly explained here.

Social security seems like a bad idea now because it always was a bad idea. Do you really think the government is saving that money in a box somewhere? No, it's spent immediately. Infact, it's spent before it's even received. We pay off social security with inflation, which means that through social security the government is stealing our money. Hell I'd be better off putting that retirement money in a 2% treasury bill lol.
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Old 02-06-2009, 01:39 AM   #468
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

It's clear that I can't stand to lose.
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Old 02-06-2009, 02:59 AM   #469
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
The games in the day are, on average, nittier than at night. So if you play a pretty aggressive game those games might actually match up better with your style.

or it could just be variance, lol.
I've been playing 12/9, do you think its variance or my aggressiveness? What does the crystal ball say?
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Old 02-06-2009, 03:11 AM   #470
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

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I've been playing 12/9, do you think its variance or my aggressiveness? What does the crystal ball say?
Aggression, combined with general nittiness of play. You basically get to bully the tables you are on and the nits are too scared to play anything other than the nuts.

If you are on stars, I may have seen you on a couple of my tables. Let's just say that you were probably not getting any cards then...

On a completely different note, I just had a look at my 25NL stats. Average 0.52BB/hand on the button. Me likey.
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Old 02-06-2009, 03:30 AM   #471
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by McAvoy View Post
I've been playing 12/9, do you think its variance or my aggressiveness? What does the crystal ball say?
Preflop stats are meaningless unless they are way off base. eg; like running 20/10/1 or something.
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Old 02-06-2009, 03:32 AM   #472
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Playing live 3 times a week is really helping my table talk:


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 30144
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $8.80
UTG: $11.60
MP: $17.65
CO: $10.00
BTN: $21.75
Hero (SB): $16.70

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 6 6
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.45, 1 fold, MP calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.60) 3 Q 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $0.70, Hero says "do you have top pair?", Hero says "Cause I have a set", Hero says "if I raise now you will call?", Hero raises to $1.90, MP folds, BTN says "nop", BTN folds

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero mucks 6 6
Hero wins $2.90
(Rake: $0.10)
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Old 02-06-2009, 03:49 AM   #473
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

Quote:
Originally Posted by juguerra View Post
Playing live 3 times a week is really helping my table talk:


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 30144
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $8.80
UTG: $11.60
MP: $17.65
CO: $10.00
BTN: $21.75
Hero (SB): $16.70

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 6 6
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.45, 1 fold, MP calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.60) 3 Q 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $0.70, Hero says "do you have top pair?", Hero says "Cause I have a set", Hero says "if I raise now you will call?", Hero raises to $1.90, MP folds, BTN says "nop", BTN folds

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero mucks 6 6
Hero wins $2.90
(Rake: $0.10)
that fold doent make any sense.
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Old 02-06-2009, 03:59 AM   #474
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

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Originally Posted by Jedi Speed Racer View Post
that fold doent make any sense.
He was probaly c-betting with air against two players, like most people do at NL10.
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Old 02-06-2009, 04:08 AM   #475
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Re: *****Official February "greatest place on the interwebs" Chat Thread!*****

TPGK + 2nd NFD is not, repeat NOT, a strong hand.
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