Post Crazy Poker Happenings to Share with Poggers here - Page 671

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.000 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 7s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.040% 38.59% 00.45% 382 4.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 60.960% 60.51% 00.45% 599 4.50 { As8s }

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:40 PM

#16753

soah

Unexpected

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 61,667

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willi

This does not matter what hand he shows here.

especially since gad basically told us the results ages ago lol

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:40 PM

#16754

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by derwipok

Meh

That really sucks for hero then

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:41 PM

#16755

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,191

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadarene

I didn't say he was erratic; I said he was snug. It was my impression that he knew enough about poker not to be flatting UTG+1 super-duper-wide, but suited connectors are pretty and I wouldn't be surprised to see him show up with them after flatting pre (not taking into account the raise, obv), especially if he felt that by flatting he could bring some other people along.

Like, I didn't get the impression he was dumb at all. I just don't give him credit for thinking super, super deeply about stuff. There's a wide range of people in-between that.

But we can put some combos of KTo/QTo/JTo into his range pre if you want. I don't think he's really raising them on this flop, even if they do give him top pair. I gave him more credit than that at the time, especially if he tends towards the cautious side of things.

at only 40bbs deep is it that incorrect for him to raise if he does have a hand like QTo here? i would guess that flatting is better, but it doesn't seem terrible to raise top pair on a draw heavy flop when you are 40bbs deep.

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:41 PM

#16756

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,007

Quote:

Originally Posted by soah

especially since gad basically told us the results ages ago lol

what do you think he had?

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:42 PM

#16757

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

Every time I PkrCrunch a reasonable range for him we're getting our ass kicked. . .

EDIT: Simple assumptions based on him not being terrible at poker: He is not raising air on that board. He is aware Gad may be protecting against a (very) wet board. He is aware that Gad is not auto-cbetting that (very) wet board. Therefore he is not raising AT "for info" or making any similar terrible decision.

Based on that I do not believe there is an available range of hands for villain that allow us to ever be significantly ahead. May as well call it "slightly ahead / WB."

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:43 PM

#16758

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,007

Quote:

Originally Posted by filthyvermin

depends on how he ranges me with my UTG open (to whatever extent he does, even if it's just "Gad probably has pairs or big cards here") and what he hopes to accomplish by raising the flop

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:44 PM

#16759

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,007

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

Every time I PkrCrunch a reasonable range for him we're getting our ass kicked. . .

yup

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:44 PM

#16760

soah

Unexpected

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 61,667

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadarene

what do you think he had?

based on what you said about the results, some draw with 50%+ equity against you

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:44 PM

#16761

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Poker is such a bull**** game

In how many games on earth can you actually have the technically advantageous position and still be losing mathematically?

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:45 PM

#16762

Willi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 41,525

Also Gad you have left out info about other players.

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:45 PM

#16763

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,191

annie,

you still around? why is this a ship in an online tourney, but a fold here?

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:46 PM

#16764

derwipok

Power Ranger

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 54,313

Quote:

Originally Posted by soah

based on what you said about the results, some draw with 50%+ equity against you

I'll give him 98ss.

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:46 PM

#16765

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Poker is such a bull**** game

In how many games on earth can you actually have the technically advantageous position and still be losing mathematically?

I'm not sure in what sense it's a technically advantageous position.

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:46 PM

#16766

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

I'm not sure in what sense it's a technically advantageous position.

Because we have a pair and the opponent has ace high

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:47 PM

#16767

Aksdal

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 34,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Poker is such a bull**** game

In how many games on earth can you actually have the technically advantageous position and still be losing mathematically?

a lot of them?

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:50 PM

#16768

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Because we have a pair and the opponent has ace high

Isn't that kind of like saying an army is in a technically strong position because it has more men, except for it leaves out the part where there is an intelligence report that the enemy's attack aircraft are very likely to momentarily arrive?

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:50 PM

#16769

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,007

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Poker is such a bull**** game

In how many games on earth can you actually have the technically advantageous position and still be losing mathematically?

Haha

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willi

Also Gad you have left out info about other players.

Yeah, true. Fairly standard, no significant short stacks, nobody who'd been 3betting crazily, nobody who'd been ridiculously passive. UTG+1 could reasonably have expected to get between 0 and 2 more calls after his flat of my open. (Which should obv take stuff like JJ+/AK out of his range here, but I don't think it did.)

I can give results in a bit.

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:51 PM

#16770

ibavly

2010 PSOP Champion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 24,513

gosu

the game is all about putting yourself as far behind as possible

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:54 PM

#16771

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

Yeah I guess so

I guess I was wrong about it then. If the equity is really THAT bad then I guess a fold is the best play

Im still right on my read though, I know that

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:55 PM

#16772

Larry Legend

Celtic Pride

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 42,920

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Im still right on my read though, I know that

you need to stop being so stubborn.

this is absurd

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:57 PM

#16773

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,007

Results:

I tank, go through the options, basically do the analysis that Hoya did, and fold.

He then makes a face to indicate that I made a good fold, and flips up the one plausible hand I had significant equity against.

I am positive he thought he was raising for value there.

And I take comfort in the fact that I analyzed everything correctly (in my opinion) and that if I'd called or shipped, he would have hit a gutshot or backdoor spades or something by the river. Reverse results-oriented thinking ftw!

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:58 PM

#16774

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,007

so Systo was sort of right in that his range for doing this was wider than hands that kick my ass

but wrong that the guy would be making a play. I folded in part because I got the sense that he felt he he was betting for value. And I was right, but he was doing it with the only worst hand that he shows up with there.