yeah sure sufur

The only tangible variable to determine how your results reflect on how you're running is AIEV. It's impossible to know how big a factor AIEV is on luck. If it's >50% of the puzzle then it's more accurate then results, if it's less then 50% then results will be more accurate, right? Meh, that might be oversimplifying.

no it would probably have to be more than 100%

I think that the danger in AIEV is not that it's inaccurate (although I half want to say that the idea that there's some idealised winrate that your game has that is obscured by noise might be a good model but might also be misleading too) but that the psychological reactions that people have to it are counterproductive to playing good poker. I think you only have to listen to people talk about it to realise that.

Ibav, the example you give is probably the good face of understanding AIEV, but I'm sure that's the exception rather than the rule.

(I also think that, even if we accept that there's some 'true' winrate that your game should be achieving that is obscured by noise, then the AIEV variance is dwarfed massively by the variance inherent in the pre-AI cards)

I guess I'm not really expressing myself well here.

I meant AIEV being a >50% component of overall luck.

There's obvioulsy many factors in overall luck, including AIEV, which cards you're dealt,which cards your opponent(s) is(are) dealt and which part of your range you're running into which part of your opponent(s)' range.

I'm pretty sure that 50% comment is meaningless so I won't try and justify it but I'm not sure it's possible to know how much weight to assign to an AIEV graph.

well said.

Maybe it is dwarfed in 100 bb cash, I can definitely accept that.

But in husng, despite non all in card distribution being a huge amount of the variance, All in ev has a very significant portion of the total variance.

beat

I have over 5 million in play money on stars

please someone, make it legal again

It is legal to play with your play money


Also: define again?

looks like august is going to be my third straight losing month

june might have been a winning month. i can't remember. it feels like years since i have won, not months.

my favorite one today was when i had AK, flopped QJT for the nut straight. fish check/jams J5, and the board straightens out for a chop.

*sigh*

i lost 15 of 16. september is off to a great start. if i don't get my ftp money, i might have to get a job


also yay for winning 60% of my games and losing money. shot taking for the loss

woo hoo! up 3k in the last hour. fish said he was going to report me for cheating

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54.../#post34763337

Gabe you play against only Spanish players, that doesn't count.

It would almost be like saying you turned $5 to $5m only against Italians, utterly meaningless.

Congrats Gabe.

Back in the day I got $10 free on a site called Royal Vegas Poker just for signing up, it was on some network but I honestly don't even remember which one. Was 2004, first semester of college. I turned it into $3000 by the end of the semester which was a ton of money to me, playing almost exclusively .10/.20 and .25/.50 PLO. That was the days before rakeback too.

I eventually tilted some away of course, at 1/2 iirc.

sanga just had to one up you

party used to give out free money quite often

Still do.

I got a letter from them a week ago giving me $10 free.

Given that I have actual $ on other sites though I wasn't interested in trying to run in up or treating it as its own roll so I just treated it as part of my regular roll, plonked it all down on one PLO10 HU table and lost it in 5 minutes.

anyone who can play online poker but doesn't makes me really mad

Selling shares to a wpt at borgata if anyone is interested

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18.../#post34766696

Lol similar happened to me on the same site. Ran my ten to 25 then entered a 22, 7500 guarantee and shipped it for 2500.

True poker gifted 50 to me on friday. Ran it up to 100 on 50 plo got involved in a hand with top set and nut flush draw against a guy with inside straoght draw who had 100 and got it all in on the flop. Wasnt surprised when he binked it. If you have a true account, check your email to see if thwy credited you as well

Line check if you please guys

Ive been playing super tight all night
I get 78hh 2 off of the button
UTG limps I raise to 4.5bbs
5 calls
flop comes JsTd9h
checks all around to me
So sb bb and UTG check
I bet 20bbs
button calls sb calls
all others fold
turn comes Th
sb bets 25bbs
I have about 70bbs behind
[9:58:14 PM] Zachary Ansley: Whats my play?
[9:58:22 PM] Zachary Ansley: I can give player reads too
[9:58:35 PM] Zachary Ansley: button is an unknown, sample size of less than 30 hands
sb is an old lady who loves to gamble
shes a real estate agent and has been just blowing money in local games for like 30 years
[9:58:51 PM] Zachary Ansley: She tends to overcommit in hands

she has about 40bbs behind, button has about 120bbs

Any thoughts?

I wouldn't have ever played for $ if it wasn't for the free 10 bucks on Royal Vegas Poker. I lost half playing limit to idiots said this is a stupid game switched to NL and then went to 1/2 and .5/1 at like 700 and never looked back. At 4k I played 2/4 PLO and lost half my roll to complete morons (oh QJTK again just hit a runner runner straight allin on the 347 flop!) so I tilted to 3/6 where I hit quads vs nut boat 2x in an hour and that was the swingiest day I've ever had. Those PLO games were fun at that site at the time as any four on the flop or preflop = ALLIN (or bluff it b/c OMG HE CHECKED HE HAS NOTHING). Don't think I played it much after that though since I couldn't handle that large of a swing wrt my roll at the time.

There's a few regs there who made a lot of $ and are still in poker. I doubt the higher stakes were much harder than what I was even playing but I nitted it up too much and didn't move up quick enough. There were some fun days though losing AA vs the guy playing any two for any amount every time.

Worst beat I ever had was also at that site. Top two pair vs top pair undercard allin on flop at back to back hands at same table and opponent double paired the undercard both times. I just clicked X on the poker window and went for a long walk that day. If only the games could ever be that good again

My entire roll has been from that 10 bucks but I wish I hadn't been such a nit early and put $ on, I had read one 2+2 book and it was clear I was better than basically everyone I was playing against.

Royal Vegas was on Microgaming Network. Before that scandal I was in one of the states that got kicked off so I got paid and moved on to other sites.

My roommate at that time got it allin ahead repeatedly but yet went busto with that $. I got a bit lucky that didn't happen to me b/c I don't know if I'd have ever deposited any if I had busted. (he had no long term interest in it anyway tho)

Make it 50bbs

literally no old lady can balance her bet/physical tells with a full house vs trips... so if you think you're ahead of old lady shove. BUT might even fold a better straight.