Stove it imo

Yes imo, overbets tend to be the nuts. He probably has 22 and hopes you somehow have a queen

Pocketas and WN, can we extend our prop bet into the month of sept + 1st week of october? Obviously I go on massive heaterments as soon as it's too late lol

what was his timing on the river shove

how are you going to stove this?

stove calcuation is really tough when the entire question depends on his range which you don't know imo

Iflat: nice!

but no :P

I was always hoping you'd win like 1448 though

See the thing here is that, while he could definitely be merging with 8x or something because he knows how FOS his line looks, I'm having a hard time believing he bets almost twice the pot with that. And if you get rid of that, you're left with like A2s/Qx that bluffed on the flop and caught up, the latter of which is much more likely- but there aren't that many hand combos that include those hands

I guess I fold just cause overbets are the nuts until I see someone show a bluff there (exploitable, but I don't see it exploited very often)

He's probably going to raise you pretty wide with all sorts fo overcards...just gotta figure out how many of them contain a Q vs overcards UI and how spazzy you think he is

Range he flats with PF->adjust for bluff frequency and see what range is left for the turn and do the same for the river. If the bluff combos need to be reasonably low you can call. Not exactly an equity calc more counting combos but I use stove for this as well heh
My gut instinct would say that this is rarely a bluff because you're UTG and the overbet s quite big and from his POV may not even be all that likely to succeed. Just use the top of your range to bluffcatch here i.e. big pocket pairs

BALLIN OUT OF CONTROL

ev $2xx.xx
/dick

just kidding nice session

for the first time ever i agree with iflat

When I first read this, I thought you wrote "Shove it imo"

lol

He instashoved, which is actually another reason I wanted to call.

The whole hand confused me because the board ran out so bad for him to bluff but at the same time there is very little I can call that bet with. I think it's safe to say he would slow down with higher PPs and even a 2 would take the time to think on the river.

I think if I am beat here, it has to be 22 or something like QJ or QK that caught up. I ran out of timebank and folded, but if I could go back, I think I would call (and probably be shown the nuts).

Update on my 100 game challenge at the $3.25 45 mans

50 games in for a profit of $82

lol you know I could've just hidden that column in HEM or edited it out completely, I just thought this was funnier

dubious about all streets. Villain is not a total idiot over a very small sample. River bet was pretty fast.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($47.50)
BB ($50)
UTG ($26.95)
CO ($100)
Hero ($51.30)

Dealt to Hero J 9
fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($3.75) Q 9 T
CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

TURN ($9.75) Q 9 T 3
CO checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($9.75) Q 9 T 3 6
CO bets $10,

also, i booked a profit 3 sessions running. That qualifies as a craazy poker happening unfortunately.

- Both calling and 3betting are fine PF imo, at 50NL I flat way more because you'll rarely be squeezed out of the hand and sometimes get overcallers
- I like the flop call as well and the turn check is fine, too...I bluffcatch river because I expect him to bet turn with most FDs untill he has shown me that he'll CR them. He isn't really going to check turn with two pair or overpair type hands imo untill I've seen him CR those

yeah that's along the lines of what i was thinking, although i wondered about a small raise maybe being better than a call since he just might be bluffing with the best hand.

Subsequently i saw him check after a cb in a hu pot with a flopped fd, turned lousy pair, so maybe i was right to chicken out and fold, which is what i ultimately did

I'd bet on turn after he checks, he folds lot of draws & maybe 10 or 9

There's not that many hands with great equity I want him to fold (outside of Tx) even stuff like AK has worse equity than usual
Bet/folding turn isn't bad though because I kind of want to bet this turn a lot with pure air/underpairs etc

betting the turn is theoretically very wrong? you want sort of this type of hand strength going to the river. we really can't float this board with underpairs or air imo

Practically theres no value or bluff value either, 9k+ likely c/c down on the turn looking at board texture. we're only getting value, and dubious value at that from 89.

On the river is this really a call? I mean size of the bet and the b/c/b line on this board is very strong (by strong I mean has alot of middling value handswhich beat us)

does he really check a middling hand on the turn for pot control and then bet the pot on the river? Seems a bit inconsistent (which doesn't make it impossible)

OTOH, he could have been going for the CRAI on the turn if he thought i'd bet the turn, but then what looks to CRAI that likes the flush hitting? AKhh maybe i guess. Even if he was strong on the turn and monkey bet the river, if i raise perhaps he sees that the flush hits and thinks he's no good? I mean who bluff raises the river at 50NL?

The tempo and size of the river bet just made me think he was so FOS. My hand looks like junk (except atthe same time i rep the flush better thna he does i think) so why bet so big captain?

Vs many players we can float this flop profitably with any two cards

I think if you folded the river then nh, you played it perfectly.

Up $130 through 85 games of these $3.25 45 mans