not-quite-comprehensive gusmahler reread
d1 (role color highlights mine)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
In general, I think early day 1 is useless because no one knows anything (except the wolves, of course). But now we're far enough along that we should be able to determine things from their voting and other interactions. Caveat, I've only reviewed early yesterday and most of today. I'll try to go back to D0 afternoon and evening a little later.
aao (4): hasn't posted much today, so I guess the case for him is from yesterday? I haven't finished my read of day 1, so I will have to revisit.
Jdalla (3): hasn't posted at all today, so I'll reserve judgment
luckbox (2): high volume poster. That serves two purposes. If he's a villager, it gets the wolves talking and hopefully out themselves. If he's a wolf, it provides cover for his team as everyone is focusing on Luckbox. His actions are consistent with either role. I don't have much WW experience, and Luckbox is the type of player I've always had the hardest time reading. Long-winded way of saying I have no clue.
YouknowWho (2): has literally one post. I've never thought it was possible to determine a person's role with a single post. Though it was a fluff post. Though I guess that the votes are mainly to draw YKW out to post more?
sixfour (1): neutral read so far.
Tokyo!! (1): Getting village vibes
crackedquads(1): Seems to be defending aao, perhaps a little too much. Not sure what that means. Probably not w/w, because a wolf wouldn't go out of their way to defend another wolf midway through day 1. But still have no idea which one is v (or if both are).
traz (1): Actively hunting. Village lean
Kukraprout (1): Village vibes.
Crossnerd (1): Has posted nothing of substance. Funny thing for me to say, I know, but her reputation is supposed to be better than this?
Nich (1): hasn't made a single post.
On to the people without votes, but with high post counts
Birdman: accused of trying too hard, but isn't that a villager tell? Village lean
dmk: seems to be actively wolf hunting. Village lean
Kruze: Another village lean.
biggerboat: Another village lean.
ak56: 18 posts, but little substance. Wolf lean
Will go back and re-read the rest of day 0 after my lunch meeting.
The three known wolves here have non-reads. YKW and Nich are also given non-reads. Of the villagers (+SK), 3 no read, 6 correct, zero incorrect. That's a pretty good record for early d1! Some of these were consensus villagery (Birdman, Kukraprout) but I don't think others were (biggerboat).
I think it's mildly unlikely that the first list ends with two wolves if gus is wolf, which suggests gus/nich are not w/w. But I'd rather not rely on super thin list placement stuff.
(mild lol at "Nich (1): hasn't made a single post" when he literally had made a single post)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Aren't there a lot of vets in this game, though? To how many people does this rule apply?
re: halfway rule
d2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Sorry I couldn't participate yesterday. Really got swamped. Thought I'd be able to join in the last hour, but couldn't. My schedule is more clear today.
I don't think Luckbox would "focus" on aao the entire day as a wolf. OTOH, Luckbox doesn't play in a traditional style, so it would be in his wheelhouse (I think).
I will be looking at the posts of the fallen to look for clues.
another non-read on Luckbox
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
BobO didn't make a lot of posts.- Announces he's a villager
- Says he will be working a lot this week. But wants to discuss the SK strat as a team.
- Tries to start a traz wagon
- Votes aao, only reasoning that he's wolfy
- Makes a few jokes
- Lols at Sun Tzu's post about birdman being birdman (not sure if it was a "lol, that was funny" or "lol, what a stupid observation")
- Says the game is AIDS
The only people he talked about are villagers who are now dead. Don't think he did enough to draw a night kill. Maybe he was the SK's target for wanting to talk SK strategy?
hold this thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kukraprout
Not sure if gusmahler is leveling or actually that disconnected from the game, but the bobo kill was obviously not from the wolves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
I wasn't around yesterday and haven't completely caught up. Why do you think this?
question and answer.
If gus wasn't around the previous day and wasn't sure why Kukraprout might think that BobO was obviously not a wolf kill, calling it not a wolf kill/probably a SK kill above seems kinda TMI to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Just trying to figure out why they were NKd/Vig'd/SK'd. Although, with all three factions capable of killing, this may be fruitless.
explains why he's rereading
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Traz from the last three hours:- Leaves jdalla wagon and votes coordi to "see what happens"
- "Lack of villagers in this thread is saddening"
- doesn't think YouKnowWho is a wolf
- wonders who of dmk/luckbox/shortline is a wolf
- questions the aao wagon
- "Yikes" at a jonnyd post being fine with aao/atak/coordi wagons
- Votes luckbox
- Says coordi is no longer a good vote, but suspects atak
- Likes the vote on jonnyd
- Says luckbox and jonnyd are wolfy
- Says mrsjonnyd is never a wolf
- luckbox is within his wolf range
- birdman accused traz of being wolfy
- would rather vote luckbox than aao
- would rather vote jdalla over aao
- finally votes jdalla
Seems like his strongest wolf reads are jonnyd and luckbox (he voted jdalla, but mainly to save aao)
seems like a decent reread
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Since traz thought jonnyd was wolfy, let's examine his last hour (he made early posts, but didn't come back to the thread until 8:12 pm):
- fine with aao/atak/coordi wagons (the post that elicited the Yikes post from traz.)
- wife accused him of being a wolf
- suspects aao
- sun tzu voted jonnyd
- marital strife
- xnerds doesn't feel wolfy
- atak accuses one of the jonnyds of being wolfy
- thinks luckbox is ignoring him
- jdalla votes jonnyd
- wife then says she's only leaning wolf, not lock
- says disappearing from thread is villagery because a wolf cares about in thread image more than a villager
- agrees that wife is a villager
- disliked the jdalla post
- thinks jdalla is wolf out of luckbox/ykw/jdalla choices
- doesn't want to vote luckbox (his vote is on aao at this point)
- willing to leave aao for jdalla, but not if it results luckbox banishment
- says aao is villagery
- but his vote never left aao
Wolf lean for jonnyd
first detailed reread of someone who's not dead, second wolf lean of the game (after ak d1). I think reading jonnyd wolf is fine here, the last 5 bullet points are both accurate and pretty bad for jonnyd at the time. I'll toss gus a couple villa points for this for good reasoning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
If you assume jdalla is telling the truth, 1 is unlikely. 2nd place got choice of angel or roleblock. For a villager who came in 2nd, it's safer to roleblock the likely winner than angel a random. If a wolf got 2nd, they had 2 roleblocks.
4 doesn't work because it's not an NK. 7 doesn't work because we're assuming jdalla isn't lying. That leaves:
6 is actually >10 entries. I don't think there were 15 entries. There may have been 11, but it didn't seem like it.
5 means shorty is a wolf. But 2 and 3 are neutral wrt shorty. Either a villager 2nd place or a wolf 2nd place could have guessed that jdalla was going to win and decided to roleblock him.
2 or 3 seems more likely than 5, so I don't think Shorty surviving proves that he is a wolf.
mechanics talk but IMO the better kind of mechanics talk that's a little opinionated and helping to narrow down possibilities
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kukraprout
Gusmahler is still a wolf doing busywork.
at this point in the reread I'm inclined to mostly agree with Kukraprout
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
I was reading your history too fast. I apologize. I saw the second sentence of this post
and didn't realize you were paraphrasing him and not actually saying that aao is villagery
Unvote
replying to jonnyd, I like that gus accepts and acts on new information
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Why single me out when I have the most number of posts on this list? I was around this morning and tried to actually analyze the night actions and Jdalla's claim.
I don't understand the shortline wagon. Is it based solely on jdalla's claim? I agree with those who say jdalla's claim is independent of shortline's role.
Is it based off of his reaction? I don't have much experience against him, so I have no idea about his tone wrt his normal tone. But I think it's natural to react to an out of the blue accusation that doesn't make much sense.
ehhhh I'm not a fan of "don't look at me, I increased my vote count"
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
The lead wagons seem silly:
The number in parentheses is number of posts today, I think. That means that my wagon consists of a guy I'm defending and three people with a grand total of 15 posts, none of whom have provided any reasoning.
(There are 8 people in the game who have less than 10 posts today, including a guy who hasn't posted at all and a guy who's only posting dinosaur pictures.)
The wagon on luckbox is being led by ... dustin.
The wagon on shortline was started for bad reasons and has stuck for unknown reasons.
It feels like no one is trying.
This... seems fair, actually.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
I think Traz's strongest read was jonnyd, who is probably clear. But I guess luckbox was his next strongest read. Guess I should re-read.
I don't like the fact that luckbox is basically giving up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
I don't like the shorty wagon, and traz didn't like luckbox, so I guess I vote
luckbox
blaming traz for the luckbox vote is mildly icky, but I know I encouraged it earlier in the day when he had read traz to learn his reads and then not done anything with that information. Blaming traz immediately after justifying it independently of traz seems like a strange progression, I'd expect the other way around? "traz says this guy's a wolf, let me look more closely -> I have looked more closely and this guy seems wolf to me too, so he's ok to vote", that would make sense. But "this guy seems wolf to me -> hey this guy seems wolf to traz too, so he's ok to vote" is much less natural to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Re-reading Sun Tzu.
Sun wasn't around at EOD and spent most of the afternoon talking about Luckbox (which is obviously why he vig'd Luckbox).
Post 1719, he says, "I think [aaronk56 is] a villager and [youknowwho] is a wolf". The wolves could have seen this post and been seer hunting.
Post 1731, he says, "am i supposed to say 'if I'm wrong vig should shoot me?'" This could have drawn the attention of the wolf vig.
Going back to previous pages, but these stick out.
The 1731 reaction doesn't make much sense but whatever.
d3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Looking at bigger starting day 2 (because he had no n1 peeks).
No posts until page 20, but no content on those posts.
Page 21:
- 2001: Votes me with no explanation. Clearly not a peek. Not only because I know my role, but he never pushed it.
- 2003: Coordi seems fine. Waffley. Likely not a peek.
- 2010: votes coordi
- 2026: "jdalla is probably a villlager". Probably indicates that it's not a peek
- Rest of his posts D2 are fluff.
On to day 3:
This one is worthy of a quote.
No waffling. This is his likely peek.
And the next post:
Again, no waffling. Another likely peek.
Page 22:
He had a fluff post in between. So in the span of 4 posts, he left 3 peeks, even though he only had two.
- 2109: nich "feels" like a villager. likely not a peek
- 2112: 64 is wolfy, but from post analysis. This is clearly a read.
- 2115: felix is wolfy. But again, this is clearly a read.
- 2116: One of crossnerd and kruze is a wolf. Again, clearly a read.
- 2117: Votes coordi
- 2119: ykw is "most likely" a villager. Again, a read.
- 2126: coordi analysis
- 2128: read that jonnyd is villager
- 2129: musing about mrs. jonnyd kill
- 2130: tokyo is probably village
- 2132: he "thinks" atak is a villager.
- 2134: "don't silence me". Message to the village RB?
- A few more posts of analysis.
Then his big read list. Worth a quote.
The first three on the list are himself and the two people he peeked on page 21. But he also lists coordi (his page 22 peek) as a certain wolf.
Also see post 2163. Quotes a short list of wolves that includes dmk and bigger says, "scratch dmk off and I'm with him on the first four". The first four are dmk, coordi, 64, and crackedquads
Page 23:
After some fluff:
- 2223: Kukra says he was peeked village in a spreadsheet. bigger says "that's actually the most convincing thing I've seen." Another seer hint?
- 2229: agrees that gus gets village points.
- 2243: coordi should be the lynch
- More random analysis with no peeks.
- 2300 lists coordi first in a list of wolves.
Page 24: No real analysis at first. More pushing of the coordi wagon. Then coordi claimed seer.
- 2362: Says that coordi is trying to out the seer. Another hint? Probably too convoluted.
- 2391: staying on coordi
Page 25:- 2406: Kruze has to be resolved
- 2422: asks for sk to kill kruze
- 2444: "never lynch" dmk.
- 2469: completely disagrees with jonnyd wanting to not lynch coordi.
No more posts.
So he left 3 seer peeks even though he only had two.
dmk--villa
kukra--villa
coordi--wolf
The wording "most certainly" is the same for dmk and coordi. So it's possible those are his peeks. And he never left coordi and didn't even want to think about not majority voting coordi. But never leaving coordi may have been because coordi claimed seer while bigger knew that was impossible.
This had already all been done in thread, but is credibly a cross-post.
Interestingly sixfour immediately reacts by accusing gus of just copying his post. Slight villa lean for that, I think sixfour-wolfbuddy can just ignore it or comment that they have the same conclusions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
In a vacuum, your switch on d2 isn't necessarily bad. But look at it in conjunction with coordi's actions. Tokyo summed it up in post 2395. I'm not going to quote it here because the multi quotes will get messed up. But here's the link.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2395
Tokyo's accusation is that coordi was ignoring the votes against himself even though it was 7 to 7. That an innocent (not just a villager, but a seer) would have changed votes to save himself. (Coordi's vote was on luckbox at the time). But coordi knew that one of his wolfbros would change vote to avoid rand. That's why he didn't bother changing his vote. And who changed vote right then? Coincidence, of course it could have been. But wolfbros with 24 hr wolfchat is another possibility.
Then what happened on D3. You come in, say you're preparing something, and night conveniently falls so you don't have to prepare something. Coincidence? Of course that's possible. But wolfbros with 24 hr wolf chat is another possibility. Coordi returning the favor by voting to save you from having to prepare something?
Then you prepare a long post overnight and post it here. Why make an overnight post instead of waiting to see the night actions resolve? Why make it hard to read when all you needed to do was push the preview post button? Didn't see the preview post button? Of course that's a possibility. Wolf trying to make sure people don't read the post? That's another possibility.
mostly quoting these for completeness
(aside: I explained clearly why I posted what I posted)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
My list. Within each tier, the order is just alphabetical.
gusmahler
dmk
kukraprout
wdcbooks
There's a slight chance that the peek was dmk = vill /coordi = wolf (he used the same language for both), but seems more likely that it was dmk/kukra both vill (he listed them first).
aaronk56
jonnyd
nicholasp27
I could go either way with all in this group, but lean village. Each seem to be genuinely trying to help the village.
atakdog
crossnerd
riverfish1
sixfour
youknowwho
Worth a re-read for me that I will do later.
felix the cat
kruze
This is a separate tier. Not necessarily more wolfy than the previous tier, even though it is listed below. Just different. But the defense of "their play is so blatantly anti-village that a wolf would never do it" might actually have some merit. But someone said that kruze is pro-village today. Did he really do anything, except be there as a sounding board for jonnyd?
it is now day 4 and gusmahler has
zero wolves
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
3 super clear villas (me, books, kukra); 2 lean villas (nich and aaron). Aaron started off strange, but I gather that he was just roleplaying as a bad guy. He's been fine since. Nich is nich. Doesn't do much reading, but his strategy helpfulness seems to be pro-village.
So the 5 wolves are from the 7 remaining players.
Still have to do a re-read (I had a busy weekend). So my initial thoughts:
- Jonnyd has seemed villagery for the last few days, so am not considering him for now.
- Suspicious that 64 stays on my case without actually setting forth a case.
- Need to re-read ykw. UTR. Not a wolf-tell because we're all 10 years older and have real lives now. But super convenient.
- Atak keeps promising to do work, but has yet to come through. Same UTR comments as YKW, but even moreso.
- Since the cleareds are on crossnerd, I will start my re-reads with her.
- Felix has had a terrible village game. Of course, that's if he's on the side of the village.
- I really want to see Kruze's late game skills. He said he purposely played badly because he wanted to stay in the game to show off those late game skills. I'd say must shun is pretty late game, so let's see them.
The wolves have a non-read and "suspicious". YKW and atakdog get similar treatment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
I said:
And he proves his vaunted late game skills by posting:
I'm not sure if this is supposed to be soft-pushing or what? By this point gus had voted Kruze on a prior day but never really calls him a wolf, just implies that his play is low-quality.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
What villager does this
sixfour calls out gusmahler again
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
There was literally nothing going on yesterday. It had already been decided that crossnerd was the death. Crossnerd and the rest of the wolves went into anti-spew mode. Plus, it was 15 minutes.
It's not like I hammered on a busy day with 3 hours to do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
It's super standard to list yourself in a list of villagers. I think everyone has done it. It's neither a wolf or village tell.
One things wolves have to be careful of is switching votes for no reason. If you use one post to say, "yeah, yyy is likely a villager", then when you're under pressure, you say "yyy is a wolf" and people ask why, you can't respond without being inconsistent (because wolves don't have actual reasons for their votes, only made up reasons). That's what got crossnerd and coordi.
So it looks like what 64 has done is just randomized the list of villagers and always called me a wolf. That way, when he's under pressure, he can say, "look, I've been on gus's case the whole game." He hopes it gives him points for consistency. But if you look closely, he's never actually set forth a case other than "I think he's a wolf."
responding to sixfour
this is like gusmahler's longest post in the thread that's not just reciting facts
In a vacuum I think that makes them less likely to be w/w, with the caveat that sixfour is nearly outed and may be leveling here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kukraprout
Yes I saw it but I'm not sure wolves would have caught it, I still want to reread for more obvious hints.
Starting to get confident that gus is a wolf too. His "carefully constructed post" vs "natural reaction to whatever is going on in the thread" ratio is off the charts.
Kukra thinks gus is a wolf, worth noting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
Lol at "carefully constructed" posts. I woke up, made two posts, walked the dog, then quickly wrote a tier list before I have to go to work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
As I said, none of his posts stuck out one way or the other, which is why he's in the neutral category. That said, I haven't carefully re-read him. Those are just impressions I have.
Firm neutral read on YKW at this point in the game.
I find it strange that gus can afford the time to do long posts rereading dead people, but hasn't gotten around to rereading YKW despite having a neutral/"need more information" lean on him since... d1?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
I've done that each of the last 3 days. 3353, 3106, and 2877. Day before, I posted a big analysis of bigger's peeks (2657). So I haven't just been coasting.
Some people are more on the game state analysis side of the game. It appears that Nich and I lean that direction (Nich more than me). Other people (e.g., Luckbox) spam the thread and try to force people into interactions. Since I am closer to Nich than Luckbox on the interaction spectrum, you shouldn't read too much in my lack of interaction. Especially since IRL, I'm fairly busy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
We had three clear villagers and have been treating three others (aaron, jonny, and nich) as almost clear, letting the 6 of them control the last 3 days. Wolves barely even tried the last three days. With no power roles (everyone ran out of shots), they seemed to care more about getting rid of the actually cleared villagers then having two of their brethren surviving. If that meant accepting that aaron, jonny, and nich are cleared, then so be it.
It's now 5 v 3. From a pure logic perspective, is it possible that all 3 are villagers? Is it one or two of them that are wolves? If it's three, can we even win?
Crap, I think everyone has a good shot at being a wolf (except me, of course).
I don't think unclearing people makes sense at this stage.
I don't think this is wolfy though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gusmahler
That's basically what I meant. The wolves didn't care about the last three days, so didn't try. Why? I don't know. And that's worrisome.
Wait a sec, if we're unclearing everyone, how can you say that the wolves didn't care about and didn't try the last three days? A bit TMI, or at least inconsistent with unclearing (since if you re-clear jonnyd/nich/aaron I think this is an accurate statement from gus-villa's point of view).
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verdict: mixed, lean wolf, not my top wolf
I find his logic more wolfy than villagery at points. There are a few points where he's villagery that I point out though.
His d1 reads post of low-volume people is a bit too accurate.
The luckbox voting thing where his progression is backwards from what I'd expect is not great.
The sixfour/gus interactions look
not w/w, but might be close enough to sixfour's elimination that they're deliberate spew. Given how both have played I don't know if I can credit them with pulling that off without it being obvious though. This is the most villagery thing to me.
So I'm not inclined to go gus today but he goes above atak on my new wolf list.
