re: Tokyo theory

If Tokyo ate a wolf NK, it was on n3. If it was earlier wolves realize he's the SK and kill him for free the next night with their SK-seer.

Assuming he was a seer-hunt kill he could have had two peeks.

There is this strong books=villa hint day 2:
I just skimmed his day 3 but havent found a hint yet. I will look again later. Maybe we find gold.

Anyone has an opinion on this?

The remaining players (to make 64 happy, I've put myself in a separate tier from the seer cleared player). Alphabetical within each tier

Village

Kukraprout-- Seer cleared

gusmahler--i've read my ... well, I can't say what I read without forcing a re-rand, but I know my role

aaronk56--been helpful the last few days, lean village
jonnyd--another helpful poster

Neutral

nich--helpful game mechanics. But it's suspicious that he kept promising he'd "get to a PC" to figure out the game and never did. That's why he's in this tier.

ykw--honestly, I don't remember anything he's done. But the fact he's not as suspicious as those in the next tier is a good sign.

Wolves

atakdog--literally did nothing yesterday. After being called out, how does Atak respond? By making a bunch more fluff posts. It's like he knew his wolf bro was on the block, didn't want to spew, but didn't want to seem like he's doing nothing.

Felix The Cat--I had been really suspicious of Felix before. However, he is the one who pointed out Atak's posting. So village points for that. Could have been w/w. Hell, it could have been wolf Felix just pouncing on villager Atak making a mistake. I don't know. But I lean towards it being w/w.

Kruze--I've set forth my case on Kruze before. He did less than nothing the first 3 game days. He said he was going to break open the game with his mad late game skillz. Then just does nothing.

sixfour--see my previous post today

Day 6: Automated Votals from #3344 to #3353


Not voting (11): aaronk56 (0), atakdog (0), Felix the Cat (0), gusmahler (3), jonnyd (0), KruZe (0), Kukraprout (7), Nicholasp27 (0), sixfour (3), YouKnowWho (0), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 11h9m. Hammer at 6.

<Beta v0.1.8>

Good morning!

sixfour make a case on your next wolf after gusmahler.

Gus can you find anything wolfy that YKW has done?

Kukra, I made a post where I quoted Tokyo yesterday, you can find it easily but in his last big post of Day 2 he had CrackedQuads in the lean villager class but his first post of Day 3 was a vote of CrackedQuads. I think this is a fake seer which the wolves might have fallen for.

Yes I saw it but I'm not sure wolves would have caught it, I still want to reread for more obvious hints.

Starting to get confident that gus is a wolf too. His "carefully constructed post" vs "natural reaction to whatever is going on in the thread" ratio is off the charts.

Now you're starting to get it

aaron - at work, will reply later

d1/n1
aao - shunned - village angel 1325
BobOjedafan - nk - village watcher/tracker 1327
traz - nk - vanilla villager 1329
Birdman10687 - nk - village backup seer 1438

d2/n2
shortline99 - shunned - vanilla villager 2088
mrs. jonnyd - nk - vanilla villager 2090
Luckbox Inc - nk - vanilla villager 2091
Sun Tzu - nk - village vigilante 2091
JDalla - nk - vanilla villager 2095

d3/n3
coordi - shunned - wolf watcher/tracker 2583
biggerboat - nk - village seer 2585
crackedquads - nk - wolf backup 2586
Tokyo!! - win condition fulfilled - serial killer 2587

d4/n4
riverfish1/captain binkles - shunned - vanilla villager 3074
dmk- nk - vanilla villager 3078

d5/n5
crossnerd - shunned - wolf vig 3337
wdcbooks - nk - village peacekeeper 3338



chartz

The Supporting Characters went about their daily routine...but brutal images of wdc's ravaged torso kept intruding into their minds, distracting them from the necessities of life. Nobody felt much like breakfast.

Some were just upset.

Some however, might have already eaten their fill.

The Characters had to face facts. Clearly CrossNerd was not the only killer among them.

Finally, though, somebody pointed out that this somber mood was no way to honor the departed, always life-of-the party Peacekeeper.

So they threw a disco wake for him.

there's a few anomalies here (kukra leaving his vote on books because of the Party post restriction.. obv not a vote with intention on shunning) because of how voting has been (being mustyeet for the past few days) and i think d1 & d2 are really the only true info we have but maybe this will be helpful?

.

just another bit of visualization

Lol at "carefully constructed" posts. I woke up, made two posts, walked the dog, then quickly wrote a tier list before I have to go to work.

As I said, none of his posts stuck out one way or the other, which is why he's in the neutral category. That said, I haven't carefully re-read him. Those are just impressions I have.

i think as wolf vig she was laying the groundwork for a claim yeah. as far as if they are both correct.. i feel like its possible that both kruze and nich are villa... not even sure its all that improbable?

she knows she only has to survive through n4 to get her shots off so i wonder if she actually did claim and seer isnt dead AND they somehow both die before her.. she still probably doesnt want to out herself.. but also probably selfaware enough to know this scenario prob wont happen..

eh maybe i need to wake up more because this doesnt feel very coherent

Why do people think SK is immune to night kills?

If peeked by the village, he becomes vanillager. If peeked by the wolves, he dies. It mentions being shunned. But it says nothing about wolf NKs, vigs, or JOATs. Although it doesn't explicitly say he can be targeted by wolf kills, isn't that assumed?

Oh, I was reading the win condition and not the roleset.

Never mind.

Day 6: Automated Votals from #3354 to #3366


Not voting (11): aaronk56 (1), atakdog (0), Felix the Cat (0), gusmahler (7), jonnyd (4), KruZe (0), Kukraprout (8), Nicholasp27 (0), sixfour (4), YouKnowWho (0), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 10h4m. Hammer at 6.

<Beta v0.1.8>

ok, finally able to do the definitive guide to night kills for everyone to reference the rest of the game

(post 3143)
kukra roleblocked bobo, coordi, atak, atak


night one:
(post 1438)
traz - vanillager - nightkilled by wolves: "looked as though a wild animal had savagely ripped him apart"
birdman - village backup seer - shot by wolf vig (crossnerd): "found dead in a giant pit of snakes"
bobo - village watcher/tracker - shot by serial killer: "each of his fingernails had been meticulously removed...probably while he was still awake and alert"

(post 1479)
jdalla won the contest and shot shorty (villager) but failed; likely wolf roleblocked

(post 3143)
kukra roleblocked bobo, which woulda not blocked since no downside

joat didn't shoot n1


night two:
(post 2106)
jdalla - vanillager - nightkilled by wolves: "JDalla's throat had been ripped out"

(post 2091)
sun tzu - village vig - wolf vig shot: "identical cord in his tent...next to the skeleton that was all that remained of him"
luckbox - vanillager - village vig shot: "black and white cord that had been suspending the body of Luckbox Inc"
(sun was yin/yang so that's why luckbox's cord was black&white)

(post 2090)
mrs jonny d - vanillager - shot by serial killer: "On the wall someone had scrawled sorry, she seemed nice in deep red blood"

(post 3143)
kukra roleblocked coordi, who was wolf watcher/tracker

joat didn't shoot on n2


night three:
(post 2585)
biggerboat - village seer - wolf vig or joat shot: "was found spreadeagled at the bottom of a deep chasm"

(post 2586)
crackedquads - wolf backup - shot by serial killer: "fingernails removed"

(post 2590)
books - village peacekeeper - jailed by kukra

(post 3143)
kukra roleblocked atakdog

this is an interesting night with a few possibilities:

1. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, joat shot bigger, cn got her 0% n3
2. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, joat shot bigger, cn shot tokyo
3. wolves nked tokyo, joat shot bigger, cn got her 0% n3
4. wolves nked tokyo, joat shot bigger, cn shot books who was jailkept by kukra
5. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, cn shot bigger, atak joat got his shot blocked by kukra
6. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, cn shot bigger, joat shot tokyo
7. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, cn shot bigger, joat did not shoot
8. wolves nked tokyo, cn shot bigger, atak joat got his shot blocked by kukra
9. wolves nked tokyo, cn shot bigger, joat shot books who was jailkept by kukra
10. wolves nked tokyo, cn shot bigger, joat did not shoot


getting rid of all possibilities where cn got her 0% n3 due to her not getting a n4 kill when she wasn't blocked
so that removes 1 and 3

we know for sure wolves ate either books or tokyo since no wolf nk
I lean towards cn shooting bigger (5-10) vs joat shooting bigger (2 and 4) because cn didn't get a n4 kill when not blocked and all 3 wolf vig kills have Indiana Jones references, so they should all be from the wolf vig, not joat

that means JOAT either hasn't shot yet, got blocked (only if atak is joat), or wolves/joat targeted exactly books/tokyo in whatever order

I highly doubt JOAT hasn't shot yet as they would have wanted to seer hunt on n2 or n3 with JOAT; seer too important to hold back on firing. So either Atak is JOAT or wolves targeted books (clear villager) and tokyo. To do that, they must have been certain biggerboat was seer, so dmk/kukra villager is solid even if kukra wasn't his peek. They also may have thought Tokyo was seer and maybe just certain it was between bigger and tokyo being seer so went for both. But tokyo was sk, so left the game instead.

so either atak is joat and was blocked or tokyo was a seer target for wolves:

tokyo did push hard on coordi's seer claim being BS, which is one point for him being seer
then there is post 2250:

"aaronk56 (i'm trusting as a villa), biggerboat (i'm trusting as a villa), mrs. jonnyd (dead villa), Nicholasp27 (i'm trusting as a villa, but not as much as aaronk/BB), jonnyd (i do not trust), Luckbox Inc (dead villa)."

So this has aaron/bigger as villa at a different level than me; he did underline "i do not trust" for jonny as well, but i personally would read this post as aaron/bb are his villa peeks, so i think aaron is even more clear if atak is villager

in post 2255 he quotes kukra's lists and says he'd swap aaron into the villager list for ykw, so yet stronger that he "peeked" aaron villager


night four:

(post 3078)
dmk - vanillager - wolf nightkill: "throat was ripped out and his entrails pulled into a long string"

so wolves only kill one
because crossnerd was out of shots since she got her shots n1-n3
and joat was out of shots because he shot n3


night five:

(post 3359)
books - peacekeeper - wolf nightkill: "brutal images of wdc's ravaged torso"

so wolves only kill one
joat out of shots since he shot n3


so the takeaway from all this (besides no more confusion) is that there are 4 scenarios for night 3:

5. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, cn shot bigger, atak joat got his shot blocked by kukra
6. wolves nked books who was jailkept by kukra, cn shot bigger, joat shot tokyo
8. wolves nked tokyo, cn shot bigger, atak joat got his shot blocked by kukra
9. wolves nked tokyo, cn shot bigger, joat shot books who was jailkept by kukra


2 are atak joat, 2 are neutral for who is joat

so that was the definitive guide in long form with post numbers.

in cliffs:
sk shot bobo, mrs jonny d, crackedquads
wolves ate traz, jdalla, (books OR tokyo), dmk, books
wolf vig shot birdman, sun tzu, bigger, 0% fail
joat shot (books OR tokyo) OR was blocked by kukra if atak is joat


if atak is NOT joat, then aaron is clear from tokyo attempt; if atak is joat, then aaron doesn't get villa points for that

Day 6: Automated Votals from #3367 to #3369


Not voting (11): aaronk56 (1), atakdog (0), Felix the Cat (0), gusmahler (7), jonnyd (4), KruZe (0), Kukraprout (8), Nicholasp27 (2), sixfour (4), YouKnowWho (0), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 9h4m. Hammer at 6.

<Beta v0.1.8>

Thanks for the guide nich

I think the BB/aaronk "hint" you found is weaker than this:
It's possible that the wolves didnt see the books one and killed him for the aaron/BB one, but I would definitely not call aaron clear.

Anyone has a suggestion before we go sixfour?

As of right now he hasnt done anything to make me reconsider.

regarding atak, i think there is a good chance he's joat and mechanically he is a good vote

however, we can wait on him because if the joat gets voted out then that would take away that path from him and he's back to neutral on other wolves

if he's the wolfiest option, fine, but otherwise go for wolfier ones and see if we can't vote out the joat if he is not joat

yea i agree with this. kind of like how we "lucked" out that xnerd was vig and it gave us some clarity/ruled out some scenarios maybe it is best to wait on atak for now and maybe someone else will flip JOAT and absolve him

but yeah i think that is a key thing to remember going forward about how kukra's RB is mechanically damning for atak in the event that the wolf JOAT does not flip before he does