'07-'09 REUNION - REDUX: Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead: Battle of the Minor Characters - Page 144

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'07-'09 REUNION - REDUX: Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead: Battle of the Minor Characters

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Last

07-01-2020 , 02:11 PM

#3576

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

Wolves based on more intuitive "thread feeling": atakdog and KruZe. Both keep being brought up as people who probably would be a strong wagon, yet the wagon never actually happens. They're... slippery, I guess, which would be understandable if they were itt posting villagery things, but points to outside influence if they're posting wolfy things or not itt at all. Both would have been very easy wagons for wolves to push, but they never seriously did.

heres a potentially cromulent post AK

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:12 PM

#3577

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

this is kinda bs. wheres nich and felix

this is why i prefer games with ITA lol this is ridiculous

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:15 PM

#3578

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

maybe we just lynch felix today... his saturday morning posting (around the last post i quoted) is really bad

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:17 PM

#3579

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

I can explain away the rest of that section as different perspectives on the game, but I'd like to hear your thoughts about this:

----------

Actually, a better question for you on the topic of villa credit for voting coordi: how much villa credit, if any, should aaronk and nich get?

-----------

The part about d2 being a bus job involved my thinking biggerboat = wolf, but in thinking about it more I think my reasoning relied more on that (or at least biggerboat = unresolved semi-UTR voting at the same time as other unresolved semi-UTRs) than I initially thought after reading the role reveals. So I think I won't put as much weight on that for now.

If we give you your credit and there was no bussing the wolf team is in

riverfish1
KruZe
sixfour
Crossnerd
atakdog
YouKnowWho
gusmahler

assuming I'm not missing anyone.

Of those, sixfour, atakdog, and I guess gusmahler are the most disconnected/least interactive/most difficult to examine. riverfish1 has mentioned Crossnerd and KruZe in ways that make their roles reliant on his. (Specifically, if we think riverfish1 is a wolf we should consider eliminating KruZe today, because riverfish's talk on Crossnerd and KruZe gives KruZe a whole lot of vig/joat equity and Crossnerd none at all.)

Gun to my head in the no-bussing scenario: riverfish1, atakdog, KruZe (vig), Crossnerd (seer/vanilla)... sixfour?

this post specifically

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:19 PM

#3580

Felix the Cat

TWEAK!

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnyd

hopefully felix can post today?

A bit, I have a medical thing later with anesthesia but I think I'll be recovered before EOD. Sorry about yesterday

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:21 PM

#3581

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

A bit, I have a medical thing later with anesthesia but I think I'll be recovered before EOD. Sorry about yesterday

we know you didnt post. have you read?

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:23 PM

#3582

Felix the Cat

TWEAK!

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by atakdog

I have been trying to figure felix out because he seems at times to have already decided I'm a wolf, so that's what I notice most about him. I've gone partnway back and am feeling better about much of his stuff, as ghe progressions seem villagery to me. But I did notice this oddity:

This is about me, of course, and my claiming vanilla early on the day when it appeared the wolf vig may have been blocked. (Possible even if they'd targeted tokyo, as tey wouldn't know whether it failed.) Felix discounts the value of my allowing for the possibility of a counterclaim, saying that if cross/64/kruze are wolves with me I wouldn't have anyone useful to counterclaim against.

But there's someone he forgot: Himself. Could felix have plausibly considered himself so clear that wolf-me would completely discount the possibility of countering a blocker claim from him? Maybe I've misread the sense of the thread (entirely possible) but I don't think so. Felix seems first to be assuming that he has three known wolves in order to discount something from me, which isn't a totally wolfy thing to do because villagers tunnel all the time and in any case those three sure look(ed) to be wolves, but surely he'd consider a claim against himself to be at least an interesting possibility to consider. Unless he knew it were impossible.

This isn't nearly as important, but it's an example of the frustrating tunneling I've seen. I am not confused, I am doing a decent job of being confused — that's propaganda.

The proof for me being a lock wolf is, as far as I can tell, merely that I haven't done much for the village. Maybe for felix that's lock-wolf material but it's ungood reasoning.

As I said above, a lot of what I see seems villagery but this stuff is why I'm having trouble being objective.

Crossnerd flipping vig completely changes the "lock wolf" thing, which was based on the mechanics - I thought the parlay involving wolves killing Tokyo was much less likely than you being vig and getting blocked. And from what I remember you're much too good at werewolf to dismiss a mechanical case on the basis of sounding kinda villagery for a day.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:23 PM

#3583

Felix the Cat

TWEAK!

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnyd

we know you didnt post. have you read?

Of course.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:27 PM

#3584

Felix the Cat

TWEAK!

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 17,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

the tangible result of this: I'm now much more inclined to go gus over you

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:32 PM

#3585

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

felix who are your cleared villas

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:32 PM

#3586

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by VoraciousMother

Day 1: Automated Votals from #1037 to #1063

aao (5): Luckbox Inc (137), jonnyd (19), riverfish1 (17), BobOjedaFan (13), sixfour (19)
atakdog (4): Kukraprout (63), dmk (68), aao (66), coordi (4)
coordi (3): traz (49), Nicholasp27 (5), biggerboat (35)
Crossnerd (2): atakdog (7), Birdman10687 (143)
KruZe (2): YouKnowWho (26), wdcbooks (25)
Luckbox Inc (1): Crossnerd (33)
crackedquads (1): shortline99 (25)
traz (1): KruZe (28)
JDalla (1): mrs. jonnyd (13)
dmk (1): Tokyo!! (17)
shortline99 (1): JDalla (45)
BobOjedaFan (1): Sun Tzu (41)
Not voting (5): aaronk56 (44), crackedquads (33), Felix The Cat (0), gusmahler (3), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 1h14m.

Vote history:

Spoiler:

<Beta v0.1.8>

I hadn't noticed this before but with an hour and 14 minutes until night on day 1 atak was a viable wagon with 3 villagers and 1 wolf. There was only 1 wolf on the aao wagon, assuming johnnyd is a villager and the other 2 were on Luckbox or not voting.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:34 PM

#3587

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmk

these wagons are starting to shape up better. get off aao and onto atak/coordi

dmk villager saw the above vote count and called for coordi/atak over aao

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:42 PM

#3588

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

oh hey I'm awake during the day today, sorry about being absent yesterday

I did not enter the minigame (duh).

Probably voting shortline unless compelling reasons not to emerge (which seems unlikely). Since it's a mechanics-driven vote I want to pretend it doesn't exist and figure out who to vote/not to vote besides him.

------------

coordi, I have questions for you:

* Today you said you're "still on the gus wagon". You hopped on the gus wagon earlyish yesterday, with your first post, after gusmahler had made what I assume you thought was a wolfy two-sentence entrance. Has your reason for being on the gus wagon changed since then?

* I see from your near-end day posting that you didn't share any thoughts on aao before calling for a CFD onto JDalla; you'd also said earlier in the day that you didn't anticipate being able to read the thread until today. So I'm curious where the aversion to voting aao/desire to vote JDalla instead came from.

Interesting Felix post, top half is; sorry I haven't been around and I'll vote villager shorty without thinking about it.

Bottom half is a soft push/questioning of coordi.

The first half is indicative of someone who hasn't read the thread but the bottom indicates that he is quite aware of coordi's posting.

All in all not a good look.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:44 PM

#3589

VoraciousMother

adept

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 957

Day 7: Automated Votals from #3564 to #3588

Not voting (9): aaronk56 (12), atakdog (11), Felix the Cat (4), gusmahler (4), jonnyd (19), KruZe (3), Nicholasp27 (0), YouKnowWho (1), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 6h15m. Hammer at 5.

<Beta v0.1.8>

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:47 PM

#3590

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

I reread several people individually.

I feel good about: wdcbooks (seriously can't see why anyone thinks he's wolfy), jonnyd, Kukraprout, dmk, riverfish1, Sun Tzu

Likely v/v wagons means this is mostly on tone.

I like jonnyd's EOD posting, especially in light of likely v/v wagons. His position throughout the day was fairly consistent and logical, he saw aao as wolfy but not necessarily super wolfy, and was open to alternatives, as long as it didn't result in a worse shun. (For him that would have been Luckbox.)

Kukra and dmk just scream villa to me in general.

I see zero reason why wolf riverfish would make this post calling aao/dmk/Luckbox/traz wolves if any of them are villa, and we know aao and traz were villa. Like, assume they're all villa, by making this post he's inviting the attention of three of the most active players in thread plus traz. A lot of his posting falls into this category of "why would he be doing this as a wolf".

For Sun Tzu... tbh, I vaguely remember that I always think he's villagery. I'm keeping him on the list anyways.

If johnnyd is a villager, which I'm assuming has to be the case. This list is too good.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:50 PM

#3591

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

fine, here's a vote: atakdog

half because he spent an inordinate amount of time yesterday reacting to getting a couple votes by freaking out about how bad of a shun he'd be and how we should arbitrarily vote Crossnerd specifically (and not any of the several other low-participation people, myself included)

half because the sudden CFD onto JDalla instead of atakdog by people who didn't want to vote aao (or be seen voting aao) was very very interesting and I'm curious how the voting dynamics would work if he's a wagon (if we happen to get real wagons today)

sadly I think he was not a great silence by the peacekeeper... but silence just isn't a good villa power.

First post I see Felix mentioning atakdog. Solid post on his part, though overselling atak's freak-out, he was a viable wagon that did fall apart.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:55 PM

#3592

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

I'm not going that far personally, a lot of the activity today has been role-neutral mechanics analysis and puzzle-solving. I did like his summary of reasoning for his reads, it's nice and concise, makes sense, feels honest. That plus other non-mechanics posts from him are a good antidote for my d1 feeling that he was agenda-posting.

I may be over-reading but johhnyd says Tokyo is a top villager after Felix announces a changed read on Tokyo and Felix then makes a post about Tokyo's activity being role-neutral. Tokyo was the SK a neutral. Could the wolves have figured this out at this point?

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:56 PM

#3593

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by aaronk56

i saw it as him not wanting to clear tokyo too lightly but perhaps

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:58 PM

#3594

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by YouKnowWho

Sup Felix. Whatcha think of KruZe/CN wagons?

This post is immediately after a Felix post. Felix ignores it even though he posts later in the thread within a half hour.

Quote

07-01-2020 , 02:59 PM

#3595

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

I would vote CN in that case.

I'd prefer not to vote either of them right now but it's not like they're bad votes. I have KruZe slightly villa and CN in the ??? column. I don't feel strongly enough about either that I'd go to bat for them.

I think that pair of wagons would need to be w/v for us to get any useful information out of it. Maybe it would be, maybe it wouldn't be. If it's v/v the wolves get another easy day because there's not a whole lot to talk about with either.

nvm he responds

Quote

07-01-2020 , 03:02 PM

#3596

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 85,727

going back to d2 to see how wagons formed:

4 hours until night it is

luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 2: kukra!V!, shorty!V! <--all villa

nich!V! - gus
kukra!V! - from gus to luckbox!V!
sixfour!W! - gus <- villa points for gus

3 hours until night it is

luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron, kukra!V!
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 3: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour!W!

at this point it's 2 main v/v wagons with wolf gus behind or 3 v/v/v wagons...wolves don't care much and aren't on shorty; could be 0-2 on luck and there is 1 on gus...most likely v/v/v wagons given sixfour on gus

crackedquads!W! - shorty!V! <--- first wolf joins shorty wagon
kruze - youknowwho
aaron - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd!W!
coordi!W! - gus <--- villa points for gus, a 2nd wolf on gus moving him to 4 votes next to 5/4 v/v wagons
kruz - from youknowwho to luckbox!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd!W!
atak - crossnerd!W! <--- villa points for atak, putting 3rd vote on cn when lead wagon has 5 votes this close to night

2 hours until night it is

shorty!V! 5: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour!W!, coordi!W!
crossnerd!W! 3: aaron, luckbox!V!, atak

so now 4 wagons: v/v at top and then ?/w gus/cross at bottom; 2 wolves on gus and 2 unknowns on crossnerd

luckbox!V! - from crossnerd!W! to luckbox!V!
sixfour!W! - from gus to shorty!V! <- moving off guswolf wagon? or just trying to separate shorty now that crossnerdwolf wagon is moving?
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd!W! - gus <-- villa points for gus; a 3rd wolf on gus when there are v/v wagons above him
river!V! - luckbox!V!

1 hour until night it is

luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, luckbox!V!, river!V! <- 4 villa, 2 unknown
shorty!V! 6: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour!W! <- 4 villa, 2 wolves
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd!W! <- 2 villa, 2 wolves
crossnerd!W! 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknown

shorty!V! - from gus to coord!W!
river!V! - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to jonnyd

30 minutes until night it is

shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour!W!, river!V! <- 5 villa, 2 wolves
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 3: nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd!W! <- 1 villa, 2 wolves
crossnerd!W! 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknowns
coordi!W! 2: felix, shorty!V! <- 1 villa, 1 unknown

coordi!W! - from gus to luckbox!V! <- trying to get 2 strong wagons at 7/5 vs 7/4 to slow his/cn's wagons
aaron - coordi!W! <- villa points
mrsjonnyd!V! - from aaron to coordi!W!
gus - luckbox!V! <- similar to coordi trying to strenghten lead wagon before coordi/cn get too much traction?
bigger!V! - gus
mrsjonnyd!V! - from coordi!W! to sixfour!W! <- mrsjonnyd was on fire voting wolves
bigger!V! - from gus to coordi!W!

18 minutes until night it is

shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour!W!, river!V! <- 5 villa, 2 wolves
luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 3 unknown
coordi!W! 4: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V! <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 2: nich!V!, crossnerd!W! <- 1 villa, 1 wolf

mrsjonnyd!V! - from sixfour!W! to coordi!W! <- just bouncing from wolf to wolf

12 minute count same as above but

coordi!W! 5: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V! <- 3 villa, 2 unknown

nich!V! - gus to coordi!W! <- villa points for pushing coordi to 6 with 2 villa wagons above
jonnyd - luckbox!V! to coordi!W! <- villa points for tying coordi for lead

7 minutes until night it is

shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour!W!, river!V! <- 5 villa, 2 wolves
coordi!W! 7: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd <- 4 villa, 3 unknown
luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown

a bunch of confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during the next few mins

river posted "how is shortline cleared if coordi flips wolf?"

4 minutes until night no change in vote count

more confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during next few mins

jonny posted saying shorty better be confident
felix posted asking tokyo if wolf shorty = villa coordi and vice versa
jonny posted that he doesn't think the roles are as connected as their fates are <- more villa points

2 minutes until night no change in vote count

felix - from coordi!W! to shorty!V! <- felix was first on coordi early on and then jumps off now; wolfy but ballsy to save a wolf, but coordi still had power at that point

shorty!V! - from coordi!W! to shorty!V!
coordi!W! - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from jonnyd to coordi!W!

final vote count:

shorty!V! 10: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour!W!, river!V!, felix, shorty!V!, coordi!W! <- 6 villa, 3 wolves, 1 unknown
coordi!W! 6: aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd, luckbox!V! <- 4 villa, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, kukra!V!, kruze, gus <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
crossnerd!W! 1: atak
gus 1: crossnerd!W!
kruze 1: youknowwho

Quote

07-01-2020 , 03:03 PM

#3597

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 85,727

so in the end, wolves were nowhere to be found when it was shorty/dustin/gus wagons (1 wolf on gus) and then as crossnerd/coordi wagons started happening, more and more wolves joined in until 3 wolves were on shorty (+felix uknown, who could be 4th wolf)

looks like no wolves on coordi assuming aaron/jonny are villas

kruze/gus are the unknowns on luckbox
atak on random wolf crossnerd as only vote
crossnerdwolf as only vote still on gus
youknowwho unknown on kruze unknown

at this point:

cleared:
jonny
aaron

that leaves 3 wolves in:
atak
felix
gus
kruze
youknowwho

based on how wagons happened, i'm putting gus and atak in villa column for now

so 3 wolves in:
felix
kruze
youknowwho

if there are only 2 in there, then atak is the joat as the other, but atak putting 3rd vote on cn 2 hours before night when wagons were 5/4 and with a vig and roleblocker likely to target 3rd/4th wagons, that's unlikely given she was the wolf vig, so i'm assuming he's not joat and wolves went after tokyo, which clears aaron

Quote

07-01-2020 , 03:07 PM

#3598

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 85,727

Quote:

Originally Posted by gusmahler

We had three clear villagers and have been treating three others (aaron, jonny, and nich) as almost clear, letting the 6 of them control the last 3 days. Wolves barely even tried the last three days. With no power roles (everyone ran out of shots), they seemed to care more about getting rid of the actually cleared villagers then having two of their brethren surviving. If that meant accepting that aaron, jonny, and nich are cleared, then so be it.

It's now 5 v 3. From a pure logic perspective, is it possible that all 3 are villagers? Is it one or two of them that are wolves? If it's three, can we even win?

Crap, I think everyone has a good shot at being a wolf (except me, of course).

i don't think the wolves have had much choice; they aren't going to stick their neck out for crossnerd or sixfour given how confirmed villas were voting

they have to be putting their eggs into us getting something wrong when picking from the final group of people...we still have to get 3 out of 5 people exactly right or they win, so now today i'd expect them to start pushing a bit more for a villager and even more as the days go on

Quote

07-01-2020 , 03:07 PM

#3599

aaronk56

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,769

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

I voted coordi purely as a snap unvote when I saw Luckbox self-vote, since it looks like the vote counter might not be handling unvotes nicely (it seems to be counting UNVOTE as a player, for example). So instead of unvote, I picked a player who I wouldn't mind being voted off if my internet crashes or something. I'll vote from among Luckbox and shortline for sure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felix the Cat

woah

I didn't expect coordi to become a real wagon.

I think the reaction is almost TWTBAW.

But if you would be happy to have coordi voted off, why would you be concerned that it turned into a real wagon?