Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 26 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

I am going to murder the next talking head who uses the phrase 'play the odds' or 'play the percentages' while completely ignoring what the best estimate of the percentages are.

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11-16-2009 , 09:07 PM

#627

Riverman

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Has anyone here ever seen an NFL coach go for 2 when scoring to go down 8? Cause that one's super-obvious and its just staggeringly awful that nobody does it.

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11-16-2009 , 09:07 PM

#628

GREEAR10

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

I am going to murder the next talking head who uses the phrase 'play the odds' or 'play the percentages' while completely ignoring what the best estimate of the percentages are.

Tom Jackson FTL. Cris Carter making me kinda happy rn.

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11-16-2009 , 09:07 PM

#629

NozeCandy

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Tom Jackson is so dumb it makes my ears bleed. I'm rapidly getting to the point where I don't even enjoy having televised sports coverage on at all unless it's the actual game. This **** is offensive to listen to.

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11-16-2009 , 09:08 PM

#630

Fallen Hero

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

I am going to murder the next talking head who uses the phrase 'play the odds' or 'play the percentages' while completely ignoring what the best estimate of the percentages are.

yeah, just heard that too, so ****ing tilting

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11-16-2009 , 09:08 PM

#631

simplicitus

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Awesome calculator for evaluating Belichick's decision:

http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/

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11-16-2009 , 09:09 PM

#632

Mister Havisham

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 935

Quote:

Originally Posted by natediggity

Tom Jackson: "i've heard a lot about percentages today......"

and then he concludes percentages are worthless

LOL PERCENTAMENTS

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11-16-2009 , 09:10 PM

#633

GREEAR10

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 70,909

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Has anyone here ever seen an NFL coach go for 2 when scoring to go down 8? Cause that one's super-obvious and its just staggeringly awful that nobody does it.

greeeear stupidity coming. i've heard a lot of ppl say this and i dont understand why. care to give me my ahhh haaaaa moment....

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11-16-2009 , 09:11 PM

#634

Omniheart

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advancednflstat representing

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11-16-2009 , 09:12 PM

#635

Pudge714

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Calm down Teddy don't want to stroke out again.

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11-16-2009 , 09:13 PM

#636

Dudd

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Teddy Bruschi spazzing out, lol, completely ignoring the fact that the defense did get a chance and Peyton sliced through like a hot knife through butter.

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11-16-2009 , 09:14 PM

#637

lapoker17

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omg stroke coming

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11-16-2009 , 09:14 PM

#638

Dudd

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Will someone explain to me though how ESPN keeps quoting the 80-79 numbers when the Advanced NFL stats site clearly shows it to be 79-70?

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11-16-2009 , 09:14 PM

#639

Fallen Hero

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i love that he thinks bb's decisions are all about "statements", yeah, no way he just thinks it's the best choice

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11-16-2009 , 09:15 PM

#640

GREEAR10

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 70,909

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pudge714

Calm down Teddy don't want to stroke out again.

had no clue you were str8$$$homey on stars til last nite. awesome lol.

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11-16-2009 , 09:15 PM

#641

z32fanatic

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Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 4,671

Quote:

Originally Posted by Omniheart

advancednflstat misrepresenting

FYP because Stuart Scott butchered the #s, followed by Matt Millen suggesting that because Manning is an above average QB that would somehow skew it towards giving him the ball being optimal....

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11-16-2009 , 09:16 PM

#642

Pudge714

Modding All Day

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 39,104

lololol Bud Adams

Chip,
They also ignored that pats convert 4th and 2 more than average team.

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11-16-2009 , 09:24 PM

#643

GuyIncognito

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Omniheart

advancednflstat representing

Judging from the flurry of new comments on the site, it's been a total disaster.

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11-16-2009 , 09:25 PM

#644

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GREEAR10

greeeear stupidity coming. i've heard a lot of ppl say this and i dont understand why. care to give me my ahhh haaaaa moment....

Chance of making it is roughly 40%, if you make it and score again you kick the XP and win, if not you go for it again. You more often end up with a total of 15 points than 12 points, therefore its usually better.

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11-16-2009 , 09:27 PM

#645

RonMexico

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,323

Quote:

Originally Posted by RacersEdge

Doug Gottlieb just read the Posnanski blog on air and agreed with him.

Finally someone with a brain at ESPN.

Gottlieb is usually pretty damn good imo. I really like his radio show. I'm absolutely shocked they ran the numbers that support going for it (even though they did botch the estimates that AdvancedNFLStats provided). I was at a restaurant and sorta caught it on monitor, couldn't believe my eyes. Man, you really find out who the idiots are when issues like this come up in media.

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11-16-2009 , 10:02 PM

#646

RacersEdge

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I want to see someone go for 2 when down 14 in 2nd half. I mean it's there on the "2 point conversion chart" they always mention, but they seem to ignore that entry.

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11-16-2009 , 10:05 PM

#647

feedthabeast

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pudge714

Calm down Teddy don't want to stroke out again.

Part of me wants to laugh. Part of me wants to tell you that's awful to say because I'm a Pats fan. Bruschi is making an ass out of himself for sure right now.

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11-16-2009 , 10:10 PM

#648

SteveY

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 309

here is the source of the numbers used on sportscenter (80.5% v 79%)

http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/pa..._/post/4660828

its the same analysis as advancednflstats, just with different probability assumptions.

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11-16-2009 , 10:22 PM

#649

kidcolin

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KirkVanHouten

Guy in the media who liked the call:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sircrc

Posnanski is awesome.

lol Peter King.

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11-16-2009 , 10:37 PM

#650

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

Quote:

Originally Posted by z32fanatic

FYP because Stuart Scott butchered the #s, followed by Matt Millen suggesting that because Manning is an above average QB that would somehow skew it towards giving him the ball being optimal....

SHOCKED that Millen might mess that up. I refuse to watch one second of Matt Millen's analysis. There is absolutely zero justification for putting him in front of the public as some kind of expert. Does he have compromising pictures of everyone in a position in power in the US or something? Matt Millen for Secretary of State next?

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