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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #126
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
yes

and 2+2 hates the decision somehow
2p2 doesn't hate it

the voting is close leaning in favor last time I checked
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #127
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

also people forget that ball at the 35 yard line and <2 min left 1 TO is not exactly an automatic td, even for satan.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #128
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I voted no but I think I was wrong.

I really really look forward to ANFLS tomorrow.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #129
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
yes

and 2+2 hates the decision somehow
look at the poll. This is one of like 3 high traffic forums that would actually agree with the call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #130
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.
1. 40%
2. 75%
3. 45%

Wonder what these would make it
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #131
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
There is gross negative skew to losing a game while thinking outside of the box. Atleast in terms of keeping an NFL HC jube.
I was saying to my woman when Belichick came out ready to go for it on 4th that he is the only coach who can get away with it due to his recent past success
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #132
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
There is gross negative skew to losing a game while thinking outside of the box. Atleast in terms of keeping an NFL HC jube.
Yeah, which is why only a guy like Belichick could even think about making that call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:30 AM   #133
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Also, most coaches aren't coaching to win.. they are coaching to keep their jobs. Even if its a 10% EV edge, it may not be in their interest.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:30 AM   #134
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I'm genuinely shocked at how ******ed this forum is.

HOW ARE YOU ALL IGNORING THE PHANTOM PI CALL??????????
LOL now he's coming into this thread to whine.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:30 AM   #135
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?
this

im getting so ****in mad from watching sportscenter right now
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:30 AM   #136
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
1. 40%
2. 75%
3. 45%

Wonder what these would make it
equal
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:31 AM   #137
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

But the real question is why of all the talking heads in the media not one person would provide a sensible "maybe"? In baseball people have started to get around to understanding numbers, why is football still in the dark ages?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:31 AM   #138
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Etats360 View Post
Ok, I'll try this again.

A= % chance the 4th down conversion works for the pats.
B = % chance the Colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~ 30 yard line
C= % chance the colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~70 yard line (IND's 30 yard line)

IF A-(1-A)*B > C, you go for it
C is the chance you lose by punting. The chance you lose going for it is just (1-A)*B. That's assuming no chance of getting a FG if the Colts get a TD. So you'd go for it if:

C > (1-A)*B or A > 1 - C/B or A > (B-C)/B.

I think it's a pretty easy go-for-it. For example, if the Patriots are 50% to get the first down then you have to think punting makes the Colts less than half as likely to get the TD as scoring from the 30. If you think the Colts' chances go from 40% on a punt to 60% on a ToD then the Pats only need to get it 1/3 of the time.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:31 AM   #139
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?
yep
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:33 AM   #140
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

MT2R,

After some discussion are you referring to when Addai was tackled with 1:20s left? Since it seems asinine to think you want a player to make that decision on the fly. Or on a subsequent play, which makes me think you blow dong at math.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:35 AM   #141
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
1. 40%
2. 75%
3. 45%

Wonder what these would make it
If they go for it they win like 70% of the time (figure there is like a 5% chance Colts score and NE gets a FG)

If they punt they win 55% of the time.

Am I missing anything? If your numbers are correct, going for it is a no-brainer. I can't imagine Scenario 3 is as high as 45% though.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:36 AM   #142
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
equal
lol, really? i don't know if my %'s are right but that's sick.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:36 AM   #143
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?
and for some of them, it probably makes sense with regards to job security. BB is one of the few bad asses who's pretty much immune to ******ed GMs/public opinion/etc
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:37 AM   #144
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Trent Dilfer is ******ed.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:37 AM   #145
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
MT2R,

After some discussion are you referring to when Addai was tackled with 1:20s left? Since it seems asinine to think you want a player to make that decision on the fly. Or on a subsequent play, which makes me think you blow dong at math.
one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:37 AM   #146
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

No, but it's not nearly as bad as the media will make it out to be. It's actually pretty close imo.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #147
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

"ludacris" "absolutly rediculous" "the worst decision i've ever seen"

LOL DILFER
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #148
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kidcolin View Post
and for some of them, it probably makes sense with regards to job security. BB is one of the few bad asses who's pretty much immune to ******ed GMs/public opinion/etc
this
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #149
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
lol, really? i don't know if my %'s are right but that's sick.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
If they go for it they win like 70% of the time (figure there is like a 5% chance Colts score and NE gets a FG)

If they punt they win 55% of the time.

Am I missing anything? If your numbers are correct, going for it is a no-brainer. I can't imagine Scenario 3 is as high as 45% though.
I don't see how it's possibly equal when putting your numbers in.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #150
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Trent Dilfer advocating playing not to lose, I think that's a first.
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