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 View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Yes 344 64.06% No 193 35.94% Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

 11-17-2009, 01:03 AM #676 waldo027 veteran     Join Date: May 2005 Location: Arizona Posts: 3,084 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? I just saw Millen on ESPN talking about the call but I had it on mute since I figured listening to him would make my ears bleed. He actually agreed with the decision to go for it?
 11-17-2009, 01:04 AM #677 Dudd Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions Posts: 54,252 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? 40% of the time you win in regulation by making the first two point conversion. 24% of the time you go to overtime by making the second two point try, which is a 12% chance of winning. 36% of the time you lose in regulation. So if you're 40% to convert a 2 point try, you go from 50% to 52% by going for it, assuming overtime is a coin flip, and it's obviously higher if your two point attempt is higher than 40%, which I think historically it is.
11-17-2009, 01:05 AM   #678
JaredL
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ctyri You've spent most of this thread chastising others for not understanding the math involved here. And now you want to claim 0.4*2pts is better than 0.99*1pt. Why? Because you can try it twice (apparently some magic occurs whereby 2*0.4*2 > 2*0.99*1)
That's not the point.

Assume you win in OT half the time and are scoring two TDs. With two extra points you win:

.5 (OT) * .99 (first extra point) * .99 (2nd extra point) = 49%

If you go for 2 on the first one then you lose if you miss both. If you fail the first time but make the second one then you are in the same tied situation. If you make the first and kick the PAT the second time then you win outright. Finally if you miss the PAT on the second one you have the same 50% chance as if you kicked both. So your winning chance is:

.4*.99 + .5*(.6*.4 + .4*.01) = 51.8%

 11-17-2009, 01:05 AM #679 ctyri Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 6,490 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Yeah sorry dudes, I just wrote it out and realized -- oh ****, you don't have to go for it the second time if you hit, duh. My apologies.
11-17-2009, 01:07 AM   #680
Victor
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by waldo027 I just saw Millen on ESPN talking about the call but I had it on mute since I figured listening to him would make my ears bleed. He actually agreed with the decision to go for it?
i am not surprised millen realizes to go for it. this is not a knock or endorsement

11-17-2009, 01:09 AM   #681
MacGuyV
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by agdci981 I am just getting tired of the "You play the percentages" argument from people that say you should punt there. THE PERCENTAGES SAY YOU GO FOR IT!!!!! I just want to stop them and ask them to explain the "percentages."
But it was their own 28! lol

Keep in mind this is the same network that said BB lost his team after Lawyer Milloy was cut just before the 2003 season....
OK we were wrong about that. But sending phantom bad messages to your defense?? They're definitely finished now.

 11-17-2009, 01:09 AM #682 Artdogg Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 8,244 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? with a 50% success rate: .5*.99=.495 .5*.5=.25 .5*.5=.25 pretty crazy actually
 11-17-2009, 01:11 AM #683 Riverman Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,137 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? By the way, advancednflstats says the league conversion rate is 45%, so your offense has to be really, really bad to make it wrong to go for 2 down 8.
 11-17-2009, 01:12 AM #684 Riverman Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,137 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Edited to delete self-pwnage. Last edited by Riverman; 11-17-2009 at 01:23 AM.
 11-17-2009, 01:12 AM #685 GREEAR10 banned     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Love my kids! Posts: 70,909 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?
 11-17-2009, 01:13 AM #686 Artdogg Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 8,244 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? also, things wouldn't really change with more scoring from the opposition (provided you do it in the 4th quarter) as another FG would make it a 9 point game and another TD would make it a 13 point game (though they'd go for 2 in this situation)
11-17-2009, 01:14 AM   #687
Victor
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GREEAR10 so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?
i dont know if i should disbelieve this or not

11-17-2009, 01:15 AM   #688
Riverman
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GREEAR10 so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?
I'm honestly not sure off the top of my head, but my instinct is "no" unless your defense is super awesome or their offense is terribad, which is highly unlikely given you're down 14.

11-17-2009, 01:16 AM   #689
Artdogg
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Riverman Fail. DUCY?
chances of 15 points:

.5*.99=.495

12 points:

.5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (failed 2 pointer) = .25

14 points:

.5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (success) = .25

nope, don't see why

11-17-2009, 01:18 AM   #690
Victor
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Riverman I'm honestly not sure off the top of my head, but my instinct is "no" unless your defense is super awesome or their offense is terribad, which is highly unlikely given you're down 14.
greaer/sklansky is right. obv.

11-17-2009, 01:18 AM   #691
Riverman
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Artdogg chances of 15 points: .5*.99=.495 12 points: .5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (failed 2 pointer) = .25 14 points: .5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (success) = .25 nope, don't see why
Now I'm the ass. Sorry, misread the post as you saying the chances of 15 and 12 were the same. My bad.

Last edited by Riverman; 11-17-2009 at 01:23 AM. Reason: Sorry Artdogg.

 11-17-2009, 01:22 AM #692 Artdogg Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 8,244 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? I don't think any of these strategies should be used until the 4th quarter, too many scoring possibilities remain.
11-17-2009, 01:23 AM   #693
suzzer99
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GREEAR10 so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?
No not unless you think you're > 50%, in which case you should almost always be going for it early. There's just too many score permutations that can happen with several quarters to play to give up 5% of a point in EV.

 11-17-2009, 01:24 AM #694 MacGuyV Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,298 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? I kind of miss Emmitt Smith on the postgame. Watching him embarrass himself not being able to get out a complete sentence was at least entertaining.
 11-17-2009, 01:33 AM #695 ctyri Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 6,490 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? The 2-pt conv question is interesting, though. I think a team with a great QB and decent goal line RB could score >50% in 2-pt conversions -- think Indy, Minnesota, NE. Really, they should go for 2 at every chance until 4th quarter score dictates other strategies. The extra beauty of this is you can also induce opponents to consider trying to match you if you get one or two this way, and if they are <50%, they are leaving points off the board.
11-17-2009, 01:48 AM   #696
RacersEdge
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GREEAR10 so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?
It's really a function of number of total possessions left in the game - the "book" says if less than 20 possessions left, go for 2 if down 14. So 5-6 possessions per quarter - you could say do it 2nd quarter or later.

 11-17-2009, 01:50 AM #697 JaredL Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 22,523 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? What is "the 'book'"?
11-17-2009, 01:53 AM   #698
RacersEdge
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JaredL What is "the 'book'"?
just the reference chart annoucers always say coaches use to make 2 pt decisions

 11-17-2009, 02:15 AM #699 lapoker17 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: FEELING YOU Posts: 8,960 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? dolphins should go for 2 at all times.
 11-17-2009, 03:22 AM #700 Victor Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 65,797 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? only person i have convinced is my father and it took less than 5 minutes. spent tons more times on friends and randoms.

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