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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:23 PM   #526
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

That makes me a sad panda that SVP doesn't get it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:29 PM   #527
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

For some reason I'm very curious what Olberman thinks. Anyone seen his reaction anywhere? In LA we got some local (I think) crap-thing called The Challenge that was literally two of the dumbest sports talking heads I've ever seen just about breaking each other's arms patting themselves on the back over how wrong Belichick's call was. I had to change it to keep from throwing something through my TV screen.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:31 PM   #528
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The sliver lining for BB is that the media backlash guarantees another 5 years+ where the 31 other coaches continue to make -EV plays.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:37 PM   #529
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by ProfessorBen View Post
The sliver lining for BB is that the media backlash guarantees another 5 years+ where the 31 other coaches continue to make -EV plays.
LOL, that's a good point. I bet he won't even do it again in a regular season game if the situation comes up. He'll wait until the playoffs or SB and laugh when they convert.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:37 PM   #530
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

New respect for BB after seeing/reading about his call.

If you ever wanted another example of why we make money at the pokers, just check out the media's response to this.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:38 PM   #531
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth View Post
You post in the politics forum, read that stuff every day and this sort of irrationality is "absolutely amazing" to you? Btw, if you consider having few cognitive blocks of this sort (as in, inability to apply knowledge correctly due to emotions under a variety of real life circumstances) a critical measure of intelligence, I think you'd be surprised what sorts of people would do well in those.
Although it may be contrary to popular opinion, Politics Forum has way more critical thinkers than the general population, even very smart people, by a long shot. Those who actually stick around are the ones who have had to actually come up with arguments for their positions, and are capable of being swayed through reason. The nature of 2+2 is it tends to attract people who take a more methodical and logical approach and tend to be much more open-minded to very unconventional conclusions. Now, once they have used logic and reason to reach those conclusions, they may be difficult to shake. Of course, the are going to be idiots everywhere.

But even without knowing any of those test results, the people in question are some of the smartest people I've met. It's just they are missing a component that allows them to deviate from "expert" opinion, even when presented with overwhelming logic. Call it Maxrakerism.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:38 PM   #532
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

huh i thought phone booth made some good points
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:44 PM   #533
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins View Post
Although it may be contrary to popular opinion, Politics Forum has way more critical thinkers than the general population, even very smart people, by a long shot. Those who actually stick around are the ones who have had to actually come up with arguments for their positions, and are capable of being swayed through reason. The nature of 2+2 is it tends to attract people who take a more methodical and logical approach and tend to be much more open-minded to very unconventional conclusions. Now, once they have used logic and reason to reach those conclusions, they may be difficult to shake. Of course, the are going to be idiots everywhere.

But even without knowing any of those test results, the people in question are some of the smartest people I've met. It's just they are missing a component that allows them to deviate from "expert" opinion, even when presented with overwhelming logic. Call it Maxrakerism.
Resisting... bait... to politard up another thread...
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:53 PM   #534
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Dudd View Post
I really wish someone would ask BB about Dilfer's comments, just so he could say that he would have punted if Trent Dilfer's was playing quarterback for either team and understands why he's confused about how the strategy changes with a competent player at quarterback for either team.
genius
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:59 PM   #535
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Oops, guess I overestimated Simmons. I opened up his podcast waiting for him to point out that it was the right play and that everyone was ******ed, but instead he was saying you have to "play the percentages and punt".
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:06 PM   #536
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

lol mariotti
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:07 PM   #537
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

wow plasche blakistone and woody all agree with the call. mariotti making a fool of himself
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:08 PM   #538
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

this is the best episode of around the horn ever. mariotti disagreeing with BB, and is absolutely stunned that the other three guys agree with BB.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:08 PM   #539
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

OMG EVERYONE ON ATH THINKS IT WAS SMART EXCEPT MARIOTTI AND MARIOTTI WENT APE****

MARIOTTI "I REFUSE TO ARGUE THIS ANYMORE WITH PEOPLE WHO HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEYRE TALKING ABOUT"

WOODY PAIGE (YELLING) "WOULD YOU SHUT UP ALREADY"

MARIOTTI THEN DECIDED HIS CLOSING STATEMENT WOULD BE "IF YOU POLLED AMERICANS MORE WOULD AGREE WITH ME"

YEA MAN YOURE REALLY SMART
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:10 PM   #540
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
Oops, guess I overestimated Simmons. I opened up his podcast waiting for him to point out that it was the right play and that everyone was ******ed, but instead he was saying you have to "play the percentages and punt".
simmons will come around once ppl point it out for him. i hope.

also, posnarski article is the best ive read so far.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:15 PM   #541
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
Oops, guess I overestimated Simmons. I opened up his podcast waiting for him to point out that it was the right play and that everyone was ******ed, but instead he was saying you have to "play the percentages and punt".
Simmons has really annoyed me lately with his baseball bashing (to pump up his NBA book). You really need to kick baseball when it's down buddy? He makes it sound like every baseball fan is over 50. What about all the dedicated stat geeks? Stephen Colbert got a pretty big zinger back to him with something like "oh, yeah marketability is the most important aspect of any sport".
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:21 PM   #542
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I was literally laughing out loud watching Mariotti lose it on ATH when 3 people agreed with the call.

I'm disappointed to hear that from Simmons. He's usually pretty thoughtful (if a NE homer). I checked 538.com because I knew Nate Silver would have something to say about it and would agree with the call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:25 PM   #543
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Mariotti and Plashcke saying the Jags decision was terrible.

Jesus Christ.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:25 PM   #544
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

my faith is restored in the stupidity of the panel during the MJD segment. whew.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:30 PM   #545
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
this. i'm reminded of david sklansky's gem of a quote from a. alvarez's 'the biggest game in town', he said this in 1980:

"I [can't work in business because I] was always being told what to do by incompetent people, and I hated it. The world is full of idiots, and I can't handle it."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth View Post
LOL - this is the business equivalent of "I need to move up to where my raise get respected." It's quite hilarious he doesn't see the irony here. The business world being full of idiots makes being successful in business harder in the exact same sense that a poker game being full of idiots makes making money in the game harder.
Btw, to add to the theme here, the reason that many of you thought this was a good quote - without an obvious cognitive block, it should be immediately obvious how ridiculous that quote is - is closely related to the reason most people have a hard time understanding why going for it here isn't obviously a bad idea and most fans are constantly criticizing decisions they don't understand. You instantly bought it on an emotional level and what agrees with you emotionally is rarely examined critically.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
btw, the mentality that leads the masses to such nonsense in this instance (listening to conventional wisdom, refusal to re-examine positions based on evidence) is the same mentality that leads people to have such horrible political beliefs.
I would argue that this is the same mentality that leads people to have any political beliefs at all. To blame others for their own misfortune and emotional baggage. Refusal to re-examine their own positions is just a side effect of not wanting to understand things that may question this fundamental basis. Show me anyone who can state their political beliefs in a way that doesn't correspond to blaming others for their own problems and I'll show a saint.


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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Phone Booth : Business & Investing
pvn : Politics
GREEEEAR: SE
This is close, but not quite - I use more words, fewer posts, provide less humor and incite more anger.


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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
wow phone booth, way to interpret the quote terribly. the part i omitted was that sklansky claimed that other considerations - namely how much people like you - play far too much into the business world.
There's almost no other consideration than applying your intelligence towards solving problems that need to be solved. The better your cognitive skills and the better you understand the game relative to others the better you do. How much people like you in a business sense is a largely function of your usefulness to others. Some part of this you can't change, others you can. That David Sklansky wasn't able to figure out a way to be liked by important people in business has very little to do with people in business being dumb.


Quote:
that was sklansky's whole point - that being evaluated by idiots who respect different ideas of what makes someone a good actuary is far from ideal.
Again, this is just a long-winded way of saying that it would be easier to play poker against better players. He's blaming his inability to succeed in business on other people's lack of intelligence. Why does he think he'd fare any better with smarter people? He's still facing the same problem of having to charm all these other people and here, everyone else is even better at it. Or does he think that intelligence has nothing to do with figuring out others' subconscious, emotional needs and devising ways to cater to them? Some people - especially successful people - spend most of their cognitive resources doing precisely this, consciously or not. Does he think that just being himself would work better only if other people were smarter? His lack of social skills would be even more obviously exposed.


Quote:
whether or not the system can be figured out in the same fashion as poker isn't up for debate, and not at all what sklansky is talking about.
It can't be figured out in the same fashion - it's a lot more complicated.


Quote:
the rest of your post is panglossian drivel - this sort of evaluation is precisely the sort of thing that most people are terrible at doing. people are universally bad at thinking that good decisions can lead to bad outcomes. they're bad at it because it goes against the way we experience the world.
So do you think that on the whole, twoplustwo posters who found this minor flaw in the way others think make great life decisions, relative to successful businessmen?


Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins View Post
Although it may be contrary to popular opinion, Politics Forum has way more critical thinkers than the general population, even very smart people, by a long shot.
You're confusing "can see normal people can't, but I can" with critical thinking. It doesn't mean much if they also miss things normal people see. You're just expressing this in-group dynamic - also prevalent in this entire thread - where a group of people as a whole overrate one another, because there are things that are more obvious to this group than those outside. You can pick almost any random social group and there would be things that its members understand better than the average person. This doesn't say much about critical thinking ability or anything at all unless you have a good way to measure this group's collective deficiencies which none of them sees. I mean, seriously, I'm sure somewhere on the internet there's a forum for autistic people and I'm sure they'd talk about stuff they see that neurotypicals can't. Pick any group - some minor religious group, those who share any particular sexual deviation, those who share a particular mental or physical disability, etc, etc - and there's something that they understand better than the average person.


Quote:
Those who actually stick around are the ones who have had to actually come up with arguments for their positions, and are capable of being swayed through reason. The nature of 2+2 is it tends to attract people who take a more methodical and logical approach and tend to be much more open-minded to very unconventional conclusions.
Really? I thought it attracted socially unconventional people from various walks of life who also happen to be interested in playing poker. Other than quantitative leanings of many posters leading to mathematical errors of at the level of high school algebra being shouted down more easily, thus being somewhat less common and posters here generally being bookish (it is a publisher's site, and one that publishes somewhat denser poker books than the norm). I think people here also way underestimate the general population because of this in-group dynamic; and also because serious posters on internet forums tend to think that what others post on this forum and others on the internet (generally drivel) is representative of the average person's cognitive capacity. Just think about what sorts of people do post in really bad internet forums, what sort of people post the most and what sort of mindset they have when they do.

It's possible that I'm overestimating the average person, but I find that otherwise intellectually unremarkable people have tremendous cognitive capacity when they are properly motivated and guided.


Quote:
Now, once they have used logic and reason to reach those conclusions, they may be difficult to shake. Of course, the are going to be idiots everywhere.
I don't follow how their conclusions have anything to do with logic and reason.


Quote:
But even without knowing any of those test results, the people in question are some of the smartest people I've met. It's just they are missing a component that allows them to deviate from "expert" opinion, even when presented with overwhelming logic. Call it Maxrakerism.
This is completely wrong. Talk to everyone from drunks at the bar, grocery store clerks, politics forums posters, businessmen, academics, etc - there's practically no one in this world who's biased towards not wanting to deviate from "expert" opinion, when it comes to things that we think we understand. Individual human minds are simply not built that way - we're positively delighted anytime we can figure out a way to feel superior to the experts, those in authority positions, etc. In fact, at least part of your friend's emotional hangup in this case is the delight in finding that the expert (Belichick) here was wrong in a way that he understands. This entire episode is about this - people wanting to feel superior to Belichick, others wanting to feel superior to those other people, etc, etc.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:34 PM   #546
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Hahaha Wilbon. "This is a results-based business, Tony. You can't like the call--because it failed."
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:37 PM   #547
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I love how every sports commentator hates teh MJD play, and some like BB.. when the MJD play was better by a pretty big margin.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:38 PM   #548
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Yeah Wilbon basically looked like an idiot. Most worthless part was him praising Dilfer for his "hard hitting analysis". Loud and angry =/= hard hitting.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:38 PM   #549
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RacersEdge View Post
Add Scott Van Pelt and whoever his partner is to the clueless list.
That's too bad, I like his show for the most part.

Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
Here's Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com (though to be fair he's former 2+2):


-- Bill Belichick is not dumb, provided that his goal is to help the New England Patriots win football games. Instead, much of the NFL's conventional wisdom on when to go for it on fourth down is horribly, horribly wrong -- teams are way too conservative and punt way too often. This is the one case where 9-year olds playing Madden -- it's no fun to punt in a video game -- quite literally make better decisions than most NFL head coaches. With that said, since the same flawed conventional wisdom can govern hiring and firing decisions, there may be a price to be paid for unconventional (if statistically correct) playcalling; see also Marty Mornhinweg.
lol, this is the facebook status of a kid I know but haven't talked to in years:

"Dear Bill Belichick, we aren't playing Madden 09. You don't go for it on 4th and 2 from your own 28 when you have the lead."

To which I responded:

"Please don't tell people you went to Tulane"
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:40 PM   #550
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17 View Post
Mariotti and Plashcke saying the Jags decision was terrible.

Jesus Christ.
Kornheiser just did the same thing. Hoge as well.

I'm blown away that somebody could say the BB decision was good but that was bad. I honestly think some of those guys are just trying to go against the grain because those views are so inconsistent.

I can understand disagreeing with both. I think it's dumb but they make sense together. Disagreeing with BB and agreeing with the jags makes some sense because the Jags' decision was even more clear cut. But agreeing with BB and disagreeing with taking a knee is bizarre.
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