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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 06:48 PM   #551
dmisfh1
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Wow, Jaworski smarter than I gave him credit for. Agreeing with BB call all the way, after admitting original reaction was to punt. Then looking back at BB history of aggression and consistently going for it on 4th down, and always looking to close the game. Might even be code for studying the percentages.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:48 PM   #552
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Phone Booth View Post
Really? I thought it attracted socially unconventional people from various walks of life who also happen to be interested in playing poker. Other than quantitative leanings of many posters leading to mathematical errors of at the level of high school algebra being shouted down more easily, thus being somewhat less common and posters here generally being bookish (it is a publisher's site, and one that publishes somewhat denser poker books than the norm). I think people here also way underestimate the general population because of this in-group dynamic; and also because serious posters on internet forums tend to think that what others post on this forum and others on the internet (generally drivel) is representative of the average person's cognitive capacity. Just think about what sorts of people do post in really bad internet forums, what sort of people post the most and what sort of mindset they have when they do.

It's possible that I'm overestimating the average person, but I find that otherwise intellectually unremarkable people have tremendous cognitive capacity when they are properly motivated and guided.




I don't follow how their conclusions have anything to do with logic and reason.


This is completely wrong. Talk to everyone from drunks at the bar, grocery store clerks, politics forums posters, businessmen, academics, etc - there's practically no one in this world who's biased towards not wanting to deviate from "expert" opinion, when it comes to things that we think we understand. Individual human minds are simply not built that way - we're positively delighted anytime we can figure out a way to feel superior to the experts, those in authority positions, etc. In fact, at least part of your friend's emotional hangup in this case is the delight in finding that the expert (Belichick) here was wrong in a way that he understands. This entire episode is about this - people wanting to feel superior to Belichick, others wanting to feel superior to those other people, etc, etc.
There are many poker forums out there, though. People who have read more 2+2 books than average poker players tend to be more intellectually curious, more logically oriented, and just more intelligent. People who aren't simply won't get the books, and will stop reading very quickly.

The average person in the world is even dumber than your average Joe Morgan-type pundit, as well. I work day in and day out with people who would by all measures be considered top 10% of intelligence of the world. And it never stops to amaze me how incredibly dumb they can be.

Now, I'm sure you don't understand why it has to do with logic or reason, because you don't bother to read any of it.Even people who have different conclusions, such as Suzzer, once they get past the initial akwardness, at least apply logic and reason to their conclusions, and occasionally will reverse stances once they find a flaw in the line of thinking. I'm not surprised you don't get it, because you don't try. You are the Joe Morgan of that forum. Stick by conventional wisdom, make a big wall of text, and be done with it.

Yes, you are right that people like to be smarter than the experts. There are also some people who prefer to take a contrary position just for the sake of it as well. But all the people that think they are smarter than Bellichick in this case are using the line "no other coaches would go for that, no way he could be right!" It's the natural human instinct to shun anyone who is different than the norm, or challenges conventional wisdom. In a lot of cases, this is pretty useful, since trying to think about every little issue in the world is time consuming and annoying, and in general conventional wisdom is much more likely to be correct than incorrect. It's more of the lines of "Bill Bellichick thinks he's so much smarter than all of us, and he lost, LOL!" It's the same line I took when Miami beat the piss out of Georgia Tech, laughing at an unconventional offensive style that is clearly +EV for them mostly for being different. People tend to not like things that don't fall in line with what is already normal.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:48 PM   #553
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Wilbon: extra points are what 98% successful?
Kornheiser: yeah but you're beeeehiiiind

sigh
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:50 PM   #554
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

OMG, MIKE AND MIKE ON COMMERCIAL BREAK JUST NOW:

"AND LATER, WHAT THE NUMBERS SUPPORT REGARDING BB DECISION THAT RODNEY AND DILFER DO NOT. AFTER PTI"

IM GETTING HARD
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:53 PM   #555
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmisfh1 View Post
OMG, MIKE AND MIKE ON COMMERCIAL BREAK JUST NOW:

"AND LATER, WHAT THE NUMBERS SUPPORT REGARDING BB DECISION THAT RODNEY AND DILFER DO NOT. AFTER PTI"

IM GETTING HARD
Will this be within the hour that they go to Sportscenter then back to PTI, or do I need to record more?

I'm seriously starting to think that this will be the call that brings going for it on 4th down analysis out of the dark ages - for better or worse.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:57 PM   #556
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Will this be within the hour that they go to Sportscenter then back to PTI, or do I need to record more?

I'm seriously starting to think that this will be the call that brings going for it on 4th down analysis out of the dark ages - for better or worse.
Dont know, but I will be waiting til they mention it regardless. Cheesy Gordita Crunch will have to wait.

ANNNNNDDD there's the commercial again.
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Old 11-16-2009, 06:59 PM   #557
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Why do people think Simmons is better than everyother talking head in the media?
I think the media reaction shows does a much better job of showcasing stubbornness than lack of critical thinking, people just hate admitting they were wrong.
Interestingly everyone at FO hated the decision.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:01 PM   #558
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

This Pats board seems pretty overwhelmingly in favor: http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...c.php?t=357497
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:01 PM   #559
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

"and why the numbers support him, while his two former players do not."

Here... we... go
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:02 PM   #560
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Most of the ESPN guys seem to think it was the right move, if that means anything.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:02 PM   #561
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The leadin into the 6pm Eastern SportsCenter...

"The Bill Belichick Firestorm rages on. See what the head coach had to say today, and why the numbers support him, while two of his former stars do not."
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:03 PM   #562
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

That reminds me of something I thought of last night.

How many message boards are there that aren't Patriots or Colts boards (a lot of bias there obv) came to the conclusion that this should be an automatic go and spent all day mocking reporters?
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:03 PM   #563
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pudge714 View Post
Why do people think Simmons is better than everyother talking head in the media?
I think the media reaction shows does a much better job of showcasing stubbornness than lack of critical thinking, people just hate admitting they were wrong.
Interestingly everyone at FO hated the decision.
The FO analysts did?

That would be interesting.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:04 PM   #564
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I am honestly surprised that he is getting as much support as he is. I thought it would be about 5-10% for, 90-95% against.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:05 PM   #565
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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The FO analysts did?

That would be interesting.
More proof they are full of ****.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:05 PM   #566
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

BTW chim I agree with you that he definitely should have had a plan and the sequence indicates that he didn't. I'm not sure his plan would have been different in terms what plays he would have called but I agree that it's clear he wasn't considering fourth down before third down given the way things went after third down.

For most teams I think run-run is the automatic call but with either of these teams I'm not sure.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:07 PM   #567
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17 View Post
The FO analysts did?

That would be interesting.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/aud...s-line-week-10
Starting from
The Patriots fail to convert on fourth-and-short.
To be fair to them these are knee jerk reactions as the games are happening.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:07 PM   #568
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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More proof they are full of ****.
I question FO as much as anyone.. but I'd like to see why they think it'd be bad.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:08 PM   #569
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Warning lame poker analogy:
Going for it here also helps your bluffing range vs thinking coaches/D players. I see teams line up and try to draw the D offsides all the time in situations like this but only a very tiny fraction of teams ever go for it.

If it matters is another question because villains may not be thinking :P
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:09 PM   #570
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

WTF where are they getting those numbers????
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:09 PM   #571
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Wow @ Sportscenter actually using %'s supporting the decision.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:10 PM   #572
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Wow @ Sportscenter actually using %'s supporting the decision.
But they cited Advanced NFL Stats...and used the wrong numbers.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:10 PM   #573
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Its officially 4th down Armageddon.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:10 PM   #574
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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But they cited Advanced NFL Stats...and used the wrong numbers.
Oh I didn't see them cite ANFLS.

Well thats weird..but I'm just shocked they would even take this method with things.

Kinda exciting.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:10 PM   #575
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Those percentages...uhh what?
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