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 View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Yes 344 64.06% No 193 35.94% Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

11-16-2009, 10:50 PM   #651
kidcolin
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by suzzer99 FJM tears Cowherd to shreds, for anyone who missed it the first time: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2006/01...n-cowherd.html
just a sad reminder what a field day FJM would have with this story.

11-16-2009, 10:54 PM   #652
GuyIncognito
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GuyIncognito Judging from the flurry of new comments on the site, it's been a total disaster.
A real gem from the comments at Advanced NFL Stats (which has actually been repeated several times over there):

Quote:
 While the numbers may be accurate (granted they are league averages being generally applied here), the interpretation is incorrect. The 0.79 WP, describes the total probability that the Patriots would win PRIOR to running a play. Once the decision is made to "go for it", the function bifurcates to two independent probabilties - (1) a 60% probability of winning based on successful conversion; given the assumption that a first down would win the game -which I'll concede, and (2) a 47% probability if the conversion fails. Thus, the correct interpretive reasoning is "if we go for it, we have a 60% chance of winning now based on conversion, and would still have a 47% chance of winning even of the conversion fails". If instead the decision is made to punt, the probability of winning is 70%. The reality is that punting would have given the greatest probability of winning.
The guy used the word "bifurcate", so he must be right.

 11-16-2009, 10:56 PM #653 SL__72 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 16,485 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Wow, that might be worse than Peter King.
 11-16-2009, 10:56 PM #654 JaredL Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 22,523 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? That's Jackson saying "you play the odds and punt" but with a bunch of \$20 words thrown in.
11-16-2009, 11:12 PM   #655
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by splashpot Uhhh, you convert 4th down 60%, lose 100% of the time it fails = win 60% Punt and Peyton drives within fg range greater than 40% = win less than 60%
Nit: if blocks cancel out, they might have to try a longer fg... or they might accidentally score a TD and Pats get the ball back...

But yeah, you're pretty much right.

11-16-2009, 11:16 PM   #656
willie24
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SL__72 Wow, that might be worse than Peter King.
wait, what is he saying? the whole thing makes sense except for the first and last sentences, right?

 11-16-2009, 11:19 PM #657 SL__72 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 16,485 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? He is basically saying they have three options: go for it and succeed (.6WP) go for it and get stopped (.47WP) and punt (.7WP) Since punt is highest they should chose punt. IE you can't combine the odds of making it and winning and getting stopped and winning because those are two different events, or possibilities, or something. I really don't know. But he appears to be comparing those three percentages and choosing punt because its the biggest of the three.
11-16-2009, 11:22 PM   #658
Victor
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sportsjefe I gotta admit I voted no last night. I couldn't see where potentially giving Peyton Manning of all people 1st and 10 at the NE 29 was ever a good decision. That being said, a couple of hundred posts later I see where everyone's coming from and understand completely why going for it was the right play. edit: and why the fact that it is Peyton Manning of all people only makes it an even more correct play.
honestly man, i gots respect for ya. glad to see ya come around. pls try to apply it to further decisions

11-16-2009, 11:22 PM   #659
suzzer99
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by willie24 wait, what is he saying? the whole thing makes sense except for the first and last sentences, right?
No, he's somehow looking at the % of the time you win outright if you go for it and make it, but not adding the % of time you still win even if you don't make it.

So if you go for it you make it and win outright 60% of the time. But the other 40% of the time that you go for it and don't make it, you still win 47% of the that.

So you add 60% to (40%*47%) = 78.9% (using his numbers).

It's just like deciding whether or not to shove in a SNG. Some of the time they fold and you take the blinds uncontested. Some of the time they call and you're still 40% vs. their range.

It's just math. There is no argument against it - 'bifurcate' notwithstanding.

 11-16-2009, 11:23 PM #660 ktw1021 grinder   Join Date: May 2009 Location: 50%Vegas/ 50% DFW Posts: 682 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? No I dont agree with his call, give Peyton 29 v at least 60 yards and yes he screwed me because I had a big play on the Pats ML
11-16-2009, 11:25 PM   #661
GuyIncognito
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ktw1021 No I dont agree with his call, give Peyton 29 v at least 60 yards and yes he screwed me because I had a big play on the Pats ML
Thanks for playing.

11-16-2009, 11:31 PM   #662
willie24
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by suzzer99 No, he's somehow looking at the % of the time you win outright if you go for it and make it, but not adding the % of time you still win even if you don't make it.
ha, but he says
Quote:
 Thus, the correct interpretive reasoning is "if we go for it, we have a 60% chance of winning now based on conversion, and would still have a 47% chance of winning even of the conversion fails".
i mean he's saying that it's 60%+(.4*47%) right there. baffling.

11-16-2009, 11:31 PM   #663
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by suzzer99 No, he's somehow looking at the % of the time you win outright if you go for it and make it, but not adding the % of time you still win even if you don't make it. So if you go for it you make it and win outright 60% of the time. But the other 40% of the time that you go for it and don't make it, you still win 47% of the that. So you add 60% to (40%*47%) = 78.9% (using his numbers). It's just like deciding whether or not to shove in a SNG. Some of the time they fold and you take the blinds uncontested. Some of the time they call and you're still 40% vs. their range. It's just math. There is no argument against it - 'bifurcate' notwithstanding.
lol my brother's roommate is like I don't believe math and sports mix...it's not how u play the game. He thinks that the guy on advanced statistics fudged his numbers somehow.

I don't think u can really explain this stuff to most sports fans...its like trying to argue there is no god to a religious person.

11-16-2009, 11:51 PM   #664
kidcolin
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SarcasticRat Yeah Wilbon basically looked like an idiot. Most worthless part was him praising Dilfer for his "hard hitting analysis". Loud and angry =/= hard hitting.
wilbon largely is an idiot. he proves it every time he opens his mouth. I like Wilbon, he's good at reporting stories, and PTI is awesome because of the chemistry, but Wilbon's never been good at analysis

 11-16-2009, 11:57 PM #665 RacersEdge banned     Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Bluff City Posts: 14,289 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? So where did they do the stats analysis on ESPN - was it sportscenter, or monday night countdown? Were mike and mike presenting it?
11-17-2009, 12:03 AM   #666
kidcolin
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NozeCandy Tom Jackson is so dumb it makes my ears bleed. I'm rapidly getting to the point where I don't even enjoy having televised sports coverage on at all unless it's the actual game. This **** is offensive to listen to.
i forgot who posted it, shipit I think, but he was right. Just dont' watch. I never watch this crap. The only highlights/analysis show I watch on TV is NBATV's gametime, cuz it's usually pretty awesome unless Cheryl Miller is involved.

The only mainstream sports media I consume is the occasional PTI and Simmons.

11-17-2009, 12:12 AM   #667
kidcolin
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Riverman Chance of making it is roughly 40%, if you make it and score again you kick the XP and win, if not you go for it again. You more often end up with a total of 15 points than 12 points, therefore its usually better.
you kinda butchered this, since you completely ignored the other side (playing for a tie). You don't do it because you come up with 15 more often than 12.

You do it because you win more than you lose. A lot of that has to do with OT being basically a coinflip.

fwiw I'm not sure how clear this decision is for all team matchups. Bad O vs good D might shift it to kicking the point. I haven't seen the calcs or tried to calculate them myself.

 11-17-2009, 12:53 AM #668 GREEAR10 banned     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Love my kids! Posts: 70,909 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? OMFG Dilfer on espn right now...After having a full day to soak it in it angers him to even hear the other side of the argument. He said you just can't trust BB to make calculated decisions anymore... LOL OMG DILFER DIE DIE DIE DIE
 11-17-2009, 12:55 AM #669 GREEAR10 banned     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Love my kids! Posts: 70,909 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Matt Millen tearing Dilfer up for his opinion lol.
 11-17-2009, 12:56 AM #670 agdci981 banned   Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 10,081 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? I am just getting tired of the "You play the percentages" argument from people that say you should punt there. THE PERCENTAGES SAY YOU GO FOR IT!!!!! I just want to stop them and ask them to explain the "percentages."
11-17-2009, 12:56 AM   #671
agdci981
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GREEAR10 Matt Millen tearing Dilfer up for his opinion lol.
Didn't he agree with him? Millen said "you play the percentages" and probably punt there so isn't that in agreement with what Dilfer has been saying?

11-17-2009, 12:57 AM   #672
ctyri
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Riverman Chance of making it is roughly 40%, if you make it and score again you kick the XP and win, if not you go for it again. You more often end up with a total of 15 points than 12 points, therefore its usually better.
deleted because I needed a Bayesian lesson, forgot you control the second decision -- sorry Riverman

Last edited by ctyri; 11-17-2009 at 01:04 AM.

11-17-2009, 01:01 AM   #673
suzzer99
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ctyri You've spent most of this thread chastising others for not understanding the math involved here. And now you want to claim 0.4*2pts is better than 0.99*1pt. Why? Because you can try it twice (apparently some magic occurs whereby 2*0.4*2 > 2*0.99*1)
It gets interesting though with say Colts/Pats offense vs. an average or worse defense. If you can get anywhere above .5 you should be going for 2 most of the time right?

11-17-2009, 01:03 AM   #674
Riverman
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ctyri You've spent most of this thread chastising others for not understanding the math involved here. And now you want to claim 0.4*2pts is better than 0.99*1pt. Why? Because you can try it twice (apparently some magic occurs whereby 2*0.4*2 > 2*0.99*1)
No, it's because the chances of getting it once are higher than missing it twice.

Miss 60% of the time, so missing twice is .6 x .6 = .36, so if you get it more than 36% of the time its plus ev and almost every nfl team does.

11-17-2009, 01:03 AM   #675
Artdogg
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ctyri You've spent most of this thread chastising others for not understanding the math involved here. And now you want to claim 0.4*2pts is better than 0.99*1pt. Why? Because you can try it twice (apparently some magic occurs whereby 2*0.4*2 > 2*0.99*1)
no, he's saying:

chances of scoring 15 points: .4*.99 = .396
chances of scoring 12 points: .6*.6 = .36
chances of scoring 14 points: 1-.396-.36 = .244 (or .6*.4=.24)

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