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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 11:56 AM   #376
NozeCandy
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The call was the best thing I've seen in a long time out of the NFL in situations like that. Stuff like this makes it really hard for me to root against the Pats against anyone but the Saints and maybe the Dolphins, but Fins/Pats are probably a wash for me. Then there is the Lions, who I also love like I would a child with down's syndrome.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:15 PM   #377
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Trent Dilfer just kill yourself.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:16 PM   #378
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
So are you saying that the coaches would actually know that going for it won the game 10% more than punting, and would still punt, or could they just be ignorant?

10% is a huge, huge, huge edge. Put me in an NFL team and let me keep making +10% plays that the crowd won't like, real good chance I'm superstar coach in 5 years imo.
I haven't read the whole thread, but it's important to note that there is very high turnover amongst NFL coaches, even sucessful ones. In a 16 game season if you go 0-2 or 0-3 with these type of "correct" calls that go against the grain and your team doesn't make the playoffs then you are fired on most teams. It's still nuts that this dictates strategy as much as it does, but football is the sport where you could easily go a season or two without looking good with these calls and get canned.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:17 PM   #379
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

ok i thought about this more and i think going for it is actually the right call but it's super close, i'd say these are the most accurate imo

Pats = 50% chance to convert
Colts win if the pats fail to convert = 75%
Pats win if the pats punt = 55%

not sure the correct forumla but i think it's this right?

(0.50 * 1) + (0.50 * (1-0.75)) = 0.625 WP

so 62.5 > 55
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:24 PM   #380
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-m..._b_358653.html


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Ma
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:31 PM   #381
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

its fortunate BB has both built a reputation where he CAN make decisions like these and works for a guy who WANTS him to make decisions like these.

btw, what i AM aggravated about is the replay rules being structured like they are, so that a single play that holds SO MUCH significance (that play has a reasonable chance of maybe deciding overall #1 and probably playing a reasonable hand in deciding #2) isn't 'looked at' when it clearly should have been. BB is at fault in that scenario though for some weird TO call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:31 PM   #382
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK View Post
This wasn't even the most questionable decision to go for it I have seen this season.
Check out the Ravens play call with :36 left in the 4th quarter of this game (Week 1 vs. KC, Ravens go for it on 4th and goal when leading by 7). Because the play succeeded, it is not even mentioned in the game recap...except to say "Willis McGahee scored from the 1 with 31 seconds remaining to clinch it." So results oriented....
That's not even close to this situation.

BAL scores, 38-24 with 30 seconds left.
KC stops them, 31-24, ball at the 1 yard line with 30 seconds left. BAL was huge to win no matter what (though the FG would have been better).
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:31 PM   #383
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

It would be a lot harder to make money playing poker without so many people thinking the decision was awful. that's the one positive.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:43 PM   #384
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Thumbs up Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

/endtopic

No more needs to be said. I have much respect for this guy.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:47 PM   #385
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

As ballsey as BB's call was, I just want to point out how terrible wasting the last timeout before 2 minute warning was. If his plan fails and Colts score, you desperately need a TO to set up GW FG. That wasted TO was terribad and hugely destroyed chances of re-comeback if needed. Something to think about when praising BB for his actions in that minute.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:50 PM   #386
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
So are you saying that the coaches would actually know that going for it won the game 10% more than punting, and would still punt, or could they just be ignorant?

10% is a huge, huge, huge edge. Put me in an NFL team and let me keep making +10% plays that the crowd won't like, real good chance I'm superstar coach in 5 years imo.
Yes. Anyone who plays backgammon would realize how enormous +10% in equity is. I've beat my brains in a few times examining alternate plays with + .25% equity.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:51 PM   #387
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I think what is interesting about this whole thing is how isolated media people are from actual legit analysis. Guys like Dilfer, Colin Cowherd might never even have this concept explained to them - even with it being such a huge story.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:53 PM   #388
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RacersEdge View Post
I think what is interesting about this whole thing is how isolated media people are from actual legit analysis. Guys like Dilfer, Colin Cowherd might never even have this concept explained to them - even with it being such a huge story.
+1

this is the part that amazes me the most tbh
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:54 PM   #389
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Hopefully nobody was watching the KC vs. Oakland game, but a funny parallel situation came up with a hilarious result:

Oakland is at their own 40 yd line with 1:13 left in the 1st half, 4th and inches. They decide to go for it sneaking Russell up the middle. Todd Haley calls a last second timeout but the "dead play" goes on, and Russell just falls over 2 yards short of the first down. Oakland then proceeds to punt on their redo attempt. Some coaches are so bad they 2nd guess themselves within 1 minute.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:55 PM   #390
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RacersEdge View Post
I think what is interesting about this whole thing is how isolated media people are from actual legit analysis. Guys like Dilfer, Colin Cowherd might never even have this concept explained to them - even with it being such a huge story.
Cowherd had a statistical analysis sent to him and dismissed it as meaningless in this case. <insert something about leading horse to water but can't make him think>
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:59 PM   #391
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I’d say the pats are about 55-60% to get the first down there and end the game. If they punt, they are VERY GENEROUSLY about 55-60% to win. This is already a wash! Not to mention the fact that the pats can stop the colts from the 30 some % of the time.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:02 PM   #392
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EPiPeN11 View Post
ok i thought about this more and i think going for it is actually the right call but it's super close, i'd say these are the most accurate imo

Pats = 50% chance to convert
Colts win if the pats fail to convert = 75%
Pats win if the pats punt = 55%

not sure the correct forumla but i think it's this right?

(0.50 * 1) + (0.50 * (1-0.75)) = 0.625 WP

so 62.5 > 55
That's right. Although, there's a ~1% chance the Pats convert, punt with 30 sec left, and Colts win.
So (0.50 * (1-.01)) + (0.50 * (1-0.75)) = 0.62 WP
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:27 PM   #393
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Advanced NFL Stats already did the math.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html

Quote:
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:28 PM   #394
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Who are the 39% who voted "no," and WTF is wrong with you?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 PM   #395
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Pats = 45% chance to convert
Colts Win if Pats fail to convert = 80%
Pats Win If Pats Punt = 60%

(0.45 * 1) + (0.55 * (1 - 0.8)) = 0.56 WP

So 56 < 60.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:30 PM   #396
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I like how people are posting the opinions of espn talking heads as if it is somehow surprising.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:31 PM   #397
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

******edly obvious decision especially vs. a high potentcy offense. It is pretty tough to stop a great offensive team when you give them 4 downs. Which begs the question as to why theses type of teams would ever punt on 4th and short.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:34 PM   #398
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

But, hey, if you know the variance of these playcalls to better than 5%, I guess the uncertainty wouldn't swamp the calculations.

EDIT: The break-point for a wash decision with my parameters of punting with 45% conversion and 60% chance of winning with punting is the Pats scoring 73% of the time giving failed conversion.

Last edited by ConstantineX; 11-16-2009 at 01:48 PM.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:34 PM   #399
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by z32fanatic View Post
Hopefully nobody was watching the KC vs. Oakland game, but a funny parallel situation came up with a hilarious result:

Oakland is at their own 40 yd line with 1:13 left in the 1st half, 4th and inches. They decide to go for it sneaking Russell up the middle. Todd Haley calls a last second timeout but the "dead play" goes on, and Russell just falls over 2 yards short of the first down. Oakland then proceeds to punt on their redo attempt. Some coaches are so bad they 2nd guess themselves within 1 minute.
This is especially funny because after KC burns a TO the EV of going for it increases.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 PM   #400
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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This is especially funny because after KC burns a TO the EV of going for it increases.
the EV of punting also increases
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