Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 16 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

The call was the best thing I've seen in a long time out of the NFL in situations like that. Stuff like this makes it really hard for me to root against the Pats against anyone but the Saints and maybe the Dolphins, but Fins/Pats are probably a wash for me. Then there is the Lions, who I also love like I would a child with down's syndrome.

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11-16-2009 , 12:15 PM

#377

Riverman

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Trent Dilfer just kill yourself.

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11-16-2009 , 12:16 PM

#378

ggbman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

So are you saying that the coaches would actually know that going for it won the game 10% more than punting, and would still punt, or could they just be ignorant?

10% is a huge, huge, huge edge. Put me in an NFL team and let me keep making +10% plays that the crowd won't like, real good chance I'm superstar coach in 5 years imo.

I haven't read the whole thread, but it's important to note that there is very high turnover amongst NFL coaches, even sucessful ones. In a 16 game season if you go 0-2 or 0-3 with these type of "correct" calls that go against the grain and your team doesn't make the playoffs then you are fired on most teams. It's still nuts that this dictates strategy as much as it does, but football is the sport where you could easily go a season or two without looking good with these calls and get canned.

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11-16-2009 , 12:17 PM

#379

EPiPeN11

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ok i thought about this more and i think going for it is actually the right call but it's super close, i'd say these are the most accurate imo

Pats = 50% chance to convert
Colts win if the pats fail to convert = 75%
Pats win if the pats punt = 55%

not sure the correct forumla but i think it's this right?

(0.50 * 1) + (0.50 * (1-0.75)) = 0.625 WP

so 62.5 > 55

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11-16-2009 , 12:24 PM

#380

abcdefghijk

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 531

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-m..._b_358653.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Ma

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11-16-2009 , 12:31 PM

#381

sublime

Mr. Roper

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 22,522

its fortunate BB has both built a reputation where he CAN make decisions like these and works for a guy who WANTS him to make decisions like these.

btw, what i AM aggravated about is the replay rules being structured like they are, so that a single play that holds SO MUCH significance (that play has a reasonable chance of maybe deciding overall #1 and probably playing a reasonable hand in deciding #2) isn't 'looked at' when it clearly should have been. BB is at fault in that scenario though for some weird TO call.

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11-16-2009 , 12:31 PM

#382

gusmahler

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

This wasn't even the most questionable decision to go for it I have seen this season.
Check out the Ravens play call with :36 left in the 4th quarter of this game (Week 1 vs. KC, Ravens go for it on 4th and goal when leading by 7). Because the play succeeded, it is not even mentioned in the game recap...except to say "Willis McGahee scored from the 1 with 31 seconds remaining to clinch it." So results oriented....

That's not even close to this situation.

BAL scores, 38-24 with 30 seconds left.
KC stops them, 31-24, ball at the 1 yard line with 30 seconds left. BAL was huge to win no matter what (though the FG would have been better).

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11-16-2009 , 12:31 PM

#383

Mister Havisham

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 935

It would be a lot harder to make money playing poker without so many people thinking the decision was awful. that's the one positive.

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11-16-2009 , 12:43 PM

#384

feedthabeast

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Quote:

Originally Posted by abcdefghijk

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-m..._b_358653.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Ma

/endtopic

No more needs to be said. I have much respect for this guy.

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11-16-2009 , 12:47 PM

#385

ctyri

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As ballsey as BB's call was, I just want to point out how terrible wasting the last timeout before 2 minute warning was. If his plan fails and Colts score, you desperately need a TO to set up GW FG. That wasted TO was terribad and hugely destroyed chances of re-comeback if needed. Something to think about when praising BB for his actions in that minute.

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11-16-2009 , 12:50 PM

#386

bschr04

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 454

Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

Yes. Anyone who plays backgammon would realize how enormous +10% in equity is. I've beat my brains in a few times examining alternate plays with + .25% equity.

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11-16-2009 , 12:51 PM

#387

RacersEdge

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I think what is interesting about this whole thing is how isolated media people are from actual legit analysis. Guys like Dilfer, Colin Cowherd might never even have this concept explained to them - even with it being such a huge story.

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11-16-2009 , 12:53 PM

#388

EPiPeN11

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Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 18,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by RacersEdge

+1

this is the part that amazes me the most tbh

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11-16-2009 , 12:54 PM

#389

z32fanatic

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Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 4,671

Hopefully nobody was watching the KC vs. Oakland game, but a funny parallel situation came up with a hilarious result:

Oakland is at their own 40 yd line with 1:13 left in the 1st half, 4th and inches. They decide to go for it sneaking Russell up the middle. Todd Haley calls a last second timeout but the "dead play" goes on, and Russell just falls over 2 yards short of the first down. Oakland then proceeds to punt on their redo attempt. Some coaches are so bad they 2nd guess themselves within 1 minute.

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11-16-2009 , 12:55 PM

#390

ctyri

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Originally Posted by RacersEdge

Cowherd had a statistical analysis sent to him and dismissed it as meaningless in this case. <insert something about leading horse to water but can't make him think>

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11-16-2009 , 12:59 PM

#391

wizardplow

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,169

I’d say the pats are about 55-60% to get the first down there and end the game. If they punt, they are VERY GENEROUSLY about 55-60% to win. This is already a wash! Not to mention the fact that the pats can stop the colts from the 30 some % of the time.

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11-16-2009 , 01:02 PM

#392

Dr. Zoidberg

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,965

Quote:

Originally Posted by EPiPeN11

That's right. Although, there's a ~1% chance the Pats convert, punt with 30 sec left, and Colts win.
So (0.50 * (1-.01)) + (0.50 * (1-0.75)) = 0.62 WP

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11-16-2009 , 01:27 PM

#393

gusmahler

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Advanced NFL Stats already did the math.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html

Quote:

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

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11-16-2009 , 01:28 PM

#394

Riverman

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Who are the 39% who voted "no," and WTF is wrong with you?

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11-16-2009 , 01:29 PM

#395

ConstantineX

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Pats = 45% chance to convert
Colts Win if Pats fail to convert = 80%
Pats Win If Pats Punt = 60%

(0.45 * 1) + (0.55 * (1 - 0.8)) = 0.56 WP

So 56 < 60.

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11-16-2009 , 01:30 PM

#396

Fermion5

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I like how people are posting the opinions of espn talking heads as if it is somehow surprising.

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11-16-2009 , 01:31 PM

#397

DCJ311

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******edly obvious decision especially vs. a high potentcy offense. It is pretty tough to stop a great offensive team when you give them 4 downs. Which begs the question as to why theses type of teams would ever punt on 4th and short.

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11-16-2009 , 01:34 PM

#398

ConstantineX

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But, hey, if you know the variance of these playcalls to better than 5%, I guess the uncertainty wouldn't swamp the calculations.

EDIT: The break-point for a wash decision with my parameters of punting with 45% conversion and 60% chance of winning with punting is the Pats scoring 73% of the time giving failed conversion.

Last edited by ConstantineX; 11-16-2009 at 01:48 PM.