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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-17-2009, 03:23 AM   #701
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by lapoker17 View Post
dolphins should go for 2 at all times.
email sparano. he proly knows this.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:33 AM   #702
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by GREEAR10 View Post
so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?
Suzzer already explained this but just to say it again in different words in case someone's confused about this (like I was):

Assuming a 45% 2-point conversion rate, in terms of total number of points it is better to kick the extra point than go for two. This is because 1 is larger than 45% of 2. So during most of the game you are trying to increase your score by as much as possible, which is accomplished by kicking.

At the end of the game, however, you are not trying to maximize the total number of points you score in the average case...you are trying to maximize your chance of WINNING. Going for 2 when down 14 late in the game works out because if you're going to lose, you don't care how much you lose by...losing by 2 points is equally as bad as losing by 1 point.

If you kick when down 14 late, you'll almost never lose by 2 points. But you don't care about losing by more points, so you increase the chance of losing by 2 points in order to increase the chance of winning the game.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:35 AM   #703
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by lapoker17 View Post
the thing that should make it easy for even a casual fan to understand is this: by that point in the game, even people who had no rooting interest at the start of the game had likely decided which team they wanted to win by the time the 4th down play arose. now if i was just some hump who wanted the colts to win, my reaction would have been "oh ****" when i saw that they were leaving the offense out there. and if i was just some hump who wanted the pats to win, im pretty sure i wouldve said "hell yeah" when i saw them leaving the offense out there. im pretty sure even ******s felt that emotionally when they realized what was happening.

the disconnect that follows is what is so hilarious.
This emotional reaction isn't because people have some intuitive knowledge of the best mathematical play in football. Fans ALWAYS want their team to go for it on 4th and 1 because (A) it's more exciting and people like action and aggressive play, and (B) it's consistent with most fans' internal locus of control, meaning they want their team's fate to be in its own hands, and not the hands of the other team. If you punt it, you're giving the other team the opportunity to win the game rather than doing it yourself.

Also people think it's easy to gain two yards because it happens all the time on first and second down but when the defense can play a short field, it's a lot harder.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:38 AM   #704
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Flee,

I think he gets that, the question is at what point does maximizing expected points no longer maximize win equity.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:38 AM   #705
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by lapoker17 View Post
the thing that should make it easy for even a casual fan to understand is this: by that point in the game, even people who had no rooting interest at the start of the game had likely decided which team they wanted to win by the time the 4th down play arose. now if i was just some hump who wanted the colts to win, my reaction would have been "oh ****" when i saw that they were leaving the offense out there. and if i was just some hump who wanted the pats to win, im pretty sure i wouldve said "hell yeah" when i saw them leaving the offense out there. im pretty sure even ******s felt that emotionally when they realized what was happening.

the disconnect that follows is what is so hilarious.
honestly, if you want the colts to win, what would you prefer?
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:39 AM   #706
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

One thing I believe is that if you ask Cowhead and other blabbermouths what they'd want Pats to do if they were rooting for Indy, they'd say punt. If you asked them why, I think they'd eventually get around to it being a better chance to win. And even then, they'd still see no inconsistency in criticizing the call.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:42 AM   #707
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Victor View Post
honestly, if you want the colts to win, what would you prefer?

is that rhetorical?

i had the colts moneyline and i was unhappy when the pats left the offense out there.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:43 AM   #708
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

its not rhetorical.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:49 AM   #709
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by z32fanatic View Post
Chris Berman:

"They were probably 65-70% to make it on the 4th down attempt?" *complete agreement by the commentators*

"If you miss it, Peyton and the Colts are what...85-90% to score?" *complete agreement by the commentators*

"And if you punt it, Peyton and the Colts are what...65-70% to score?" *complete agreement by the commentators*

"They decided to take the 65% chance right there."
I recorded MNC because I missed some of the middle and wanted the LOLs. I just rewatched this and wow again. Using their numbers the Patriots win at worst 68.5% of the time by going for it and at worst 35% punting and they are all saying to punt cutting their chances in half.
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Old 11-17-2009, 03:57 AM   #710
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

My ****ing god, I was reading some of the comments on the ESPN article..

Quote:
diehardutvol (11/16/2009 at 8:48 PM)
this is a load of crap. since when does indy represent the rest of the nfl. you give peyton the ball on the 30 with 2 whole minutes and he will walk into the endzone standing on his arms, eyes closed, while eating cake. now if we were talking about a high school team playing the pats then maybe the 66% is realistic. these " math calculations" are a joke for an article.
Awesome.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:10 AM   #711
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by JaredL View Post
Flee,

I think he gets that, the question is at what point does maximizing expected points no longer maximize win equity.
I'm not so sure he gets it...I had the same question GREEAR posed and it really didn't make sense to me in an A-HA! manner until I thought about it in the way that I posted.

Maybe I'm just slow though, and he really was asking what you think he was asking.

In response to the question of when does maximizing expected points start to hurt your chances of winning, I'd say whenever time is short enough that you know it's very unlikely you will get the ball more than twice. Exactly when this is can't be pinned down exactly, but in many instances it's clear.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:17 AM   #712
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I don't have the answer either but it obviously depends on the teams involved. Say you find yourself down two TDs just 5 minutes in but after an injury I go in as QB for the other team. I think in this spot you want to go for it no matter what.

In other words the worse the other team is offensively the earlier that point should be. I'm not sure though as this gets a lot more complicated further out.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:35 AM   #713
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Artdogg View Post
I don't think any of these strategies should be used until the 4th quarter, too many scoring possibilities remain.
Yeah, this is right, though whether good/well-suited-to-2-yards offenses should go for 2 every time is another question.

I would really like to see some low-end coach do this exact same thing and succeed. I'm almost positive that he would be lauded for his gutsy call, and "he really won his team over by having the confidence to do this.". **** ESPN and everyone that says Belichick is a ****** for this. Saying "well, I don't think it's a good decision because ____" is fine, but "LOL NOT CLOSE WTF R U THINKING" makes me mad.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:36 AM   #714
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

JaredL: Why? I'm assuming that with you in as quarterback, your offense is not going to score anymore points unless they get super lucky. So once the trailing team ties it's a virtual lock to win because you'll go three and out every time. And if you want to tie then you just kick the extra point.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:38 AM   #715
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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JaredL: Why? I'm assuming that with you in as quarterback, your offense is not going to score anymore points unless they get super lucky. So once the trailing team ties it's a virtual lock to win because you'll go three and out every time. And if you want to tie then you just kick the extra point.
Pretend JaredL is going out and the real QB is coming back in if it gets to Overtime. That makes more sense/is his point, I think.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:46 AM   #716
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Yeah I didn't think about OT in my extreme case. I still think it's true that the worse the other team is at scoring the earlier you'll shift into end-of-game mode for these decisions. I would think the loss in expected points will hurt only if there is likely to be some back and forth on the scoreboard.
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Old 11-17-2009, 04:58 AM   #717
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

If the other team is really bad at scoring, and you're good at scoring, then you should easily outscore them regardless of what you do (though you'll probably be a favorite to convert for two so you should do that). If you're also bad at scoring, and/or they have a great defense, then you're probably not going to be 45% on 2-point conversions, you'll be worse, and then it certainly won't make sense to go for two.
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Old 11-17-2009, 06:16 AM   #718
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I really liked a section of Dan Wetzel's column today on yahoo sports. Although he maintains his belief that there is more to a coaching decision than the numbers and probabilities whatnot, he acknowledges their existence and explains how they were used to show that going for it was the right play. The comments on buzz are ******ed as expected, but I gained a good deal of respect for him from this.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_yl...yhoo&type=lgns
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Old 11-17-2009, 06:56 AM   #719
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Being Bill Belichick

ROFL
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Old 11-17-2009, 07:51 AM   #720
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
Let's assume the probabilities worked out exactly to a 50/50 distribution for whatever reason. Do you punt or go for it at 0EV.
if it's 0EV I go for it b/c my QB is my highest paid player. All else being equal I keep the ball in his hands.

haven't read every page .... has anyone in the media said they liked it and further said it was the right call based on %'s?
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:37 AM   #721
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Everyone's shocked at Tedy Bruschi's comments and I was at first too. But it's evident to me now that Belichick must have told Bruschi that he was going to cut him but would let him retire first if he wanted. His remarks smack of a bitter man.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:23 AM   #722
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I don't think he gives a **** about the media but it would be a real shame if all this ridiculousness actually did get BB to start doubting himself.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:36 AM   #723
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I can't wait to read TMQ today, Easterbrook had to have been creaming himself over that call.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:50 AM   #724
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The way I have been explaining this to people is to take it to the extreme while simplifying the problem.

I will basically get people to agree with me that if for some reason they knew NE was 100% to convert the 4th down they would go for it. And if they knew they were 0% to convert they would punt it, no brainer. Both pretty simple to understand. Then I ask them about 99% to convert, then 98%, which are both yes/yes. From there it is easy to point out that there is a break even point, and it is just a matter of finding it.

I know it ignores a couple of things, but it gets people thinking properly about it imo.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:57 AM   #725
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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The way I have been explaining this to people is to take it to the extreme while simplifying the problem.

I will basically get people to agree with me that if for some reason they knew NE was 100% to convert the 4th down they would go for it. And if they knew they were 0% to convert they would punt it, no brainer. Both pretty simple to understand. Then I ask them about 99% to convert, then 98%, which are both yes/yes. From there it is easy to point out that there is a break even point, and it is just a matter of finding it.

I know it ignores a couple of things, but it gets people thinking properly about it imo.
should be careful with this technique imo, sounds like it might cause head explosions or something
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