Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sporting Events Discussion centered around sporting events.

View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-16-2009, 09:07 PM   #626
Dudd
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dudd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions
Posts: 54,252
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I am going to murder the next talking head who uses the phrase 'play the odds' or 'play the percentages' while completely ignoring what the best estimate of the percentages are.
Dudd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:07 PM   #627
Riverman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Riverman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 73,137
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Has anyone here ever seen an NFL coach go for 2 when scoring to go down 8? Cause that one's super-obvious and its just staggeringly awful that nobody does it.
Riverman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:07 PM   #628
GREEAR10
banned
 
GREEAR10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Love my kids!
Posts: 70,909
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd View Post
I am going to murder the next talking head who uses the phrase 'play the odds' or 'play the percentages' while completely ignoring what the best estimate of the percentages are.
Tom Jackson FTL. Cris Carter making me kinda happy rn.
GREEAR10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:07 PM   #629
NozeCandy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NozeCandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: lol goofybawler
Posts: 29,251
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Tom Jackson is so dumb it makes my ears bleed. I'm rapidly getting to the point where I don't even enjoy having televised sports coverage on at all unless it's the actual game. This **** is offensive to listen to.
NozeCandy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:08 PM   #630
Fallen Hero
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fallen Hero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 21,422
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd View Post
I am going to murder the next talking head who uses the phrase 'play the odds' or 'play the percentages' while completely ignoring what the best estimate of the percentages are.
yeah, just heard that too, so ****ing tilting
Fallen Hero is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:08 PM   #631
simplicitus
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
simplicitus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Getting Schwifty
Posts: 10,849
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Awesome calculator for evaluating Belichick's decision:

http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/
simplicitus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:09 PM   #632
Mister Havisham
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 935
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by natediggity View Post
Tom Jackson: "i've heard a lot about percentages today......"

and then he concludes percentages are worthless
LOL PERCENTAMENTS
Mister Havisham is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:10 PM   #633
GREEAR10
banned
 
GREEAR10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Love my kids!
Posts: 70,909
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
Has anyone here ever seen an NFL coach go for 2 when scoring to go down 8? Cause that one's super-obvious and its just staggeringly awful that nobody does it.
greeeear stupidity coming. i've heard a lot of ppl say this and i dont understand why. care to give me my ahhh haaaaa moment....
GREEAR10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:11 PM   #634
Omniheart
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 6,540
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

advancednflstat representing
Omniheart is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:12 PM   #635
Pudge714
Modding All Day
 
Pudge714's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Frazier >>>>> Chilly
Posts: 39,104
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Calm down Teddy don't want to stroke out again.
Pudge714 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:13 PM   #636
Dudd
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dudd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions
Posts: 54,252
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Teddy Bruschi spazzing out, lol, completely ignoring the fact that the defense did get a chance and Peyton sliced through like a hot knife through butter.
Dudd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:14 PM   #637
lapoker17
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: FEELING YOU
Posts: 8,960
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

omg stroke coming
lapoker17 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:14 PM   #638
Dudd
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dudd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions
Posts: 54,252
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Will someone explain to me though how ESPN keeps quoting the 80-79 numbers when the Advanced NFL stats site clearly shows it to be 79-70?
Dudd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:14 PM   #639
Fallen Hero
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fallen Hero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 21,422
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

i love that he thinks bb's decisions are all about "statements", yeah, no way he just thinks it's the best choice
Fallen Hero is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:15 PM   #640
GREEAR10
banned
 
GREEAR10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Love my kids!
Posts: 70,909
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pudge714 View Post
Calm down Teddy don't want to stroke out again.
had no clue you were str8$$$homey on stars til last nite. awesome lol.
GREEAR10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:15 PM   #641
z32fanatic
Pooh-Bah
 
z32fanatic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: In your iPads
Posts: 4,671
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniheart View Post
advancednflstat misrepresenting
FYP because Stuart Scott butchered the #s, followed by Matt Millen suggesting that because Manning is an above average QB that would somehow skew it towards giving him the ball being optimal....
z32fanatic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:16 PM   #642
Pudge714
Modding All Day
 
Pudge714's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Frazier >>>>> Chilly
Posts: 39,104
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

lololol Bud Adams

Chip,
They also ignored that pats convert 4th and 2 more than average team.
Pudge714 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:24 PM   #643
GuyIncognito
Pooh-Bah
 
GuyIncognito's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,754
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniheart View Post
advancednflstat representing
Judging from the flurry of new comments on the site, it's been a total disaster.
GuyIncognito is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:25 PM   #644
Riverman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Riverman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 73,137
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GREEAR10 View Post
greeeear stupidity coming. i've heard a lot of ppl say this and i dont understand why. care to give me my ahhh haaaaa moment....
Chance of making it is roughly 40%, if you make it and score again you kick the XP and win, if not you go for it again. You more often end up with a total of 15 points than 12 points, therefore its usually better.
Riverman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 09:27 PM   #645
RonMexico
Pooh-Bah
 
RonMexico's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,323
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RacersEdge View Post
Doug Gottlieb just read the Posnanski blog on air and agreed with him.

Finally someone with a brain at ESPN.
Gottlieb is usually pretty damn good imo. I really like his radio show. I'm absolutely shocked they ran the numbers that support going for it (even though they did botch the estimates that AdvancedNFLStats provided). I was at a restaurant and sorta caught it on monitor, couldn't believe my eyes. Man, you really find out who the idiots are when issues like this come up in media.
RonMexico is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:02 PM   #646
RacersEdge
banned
 
RacersEdge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Bluff City
Posts: 14,289
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I want to see someone go for 2 when down 14 in 2nd half. I mean it's there on the "2 point conversion chart" they always mention, but they seem to ignore that entry.
RacersEdge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:05 PM   #647
feedthabeast
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
feedthabeast's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 8,303
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pudge714 View Post
Calm down Teddy don't want to stroke out again.
Part of me wants to laugh. Part of me wants to tell you that's awful to say because I'm a Pats fan. Bruschi is making an ass out of himself for sure right now.
feedthabeast is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:10 PM   #648
SteveY
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 309
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

here is the source of the numbers used on sportscenter (80.5% v 79%)

http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/pa..._/post/4660828

its the same analysis as advancednflstats, just with different probability assumptions.
SteveY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:22 PM   #649
kidcolin
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
kidcolin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: thank god for the hatchery
Posts: 108,763
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KirkVanHouten View Post
Guy in the media who liked the call:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sircrc
Posnanski is awesome.

lol Peter King.
kidcolin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2009, 10:37 PM   #650
suzzer99
Save the Cheerleader, Save the World
 
suzzer99's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: givin' 'em the business
Posts: 98,575
Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by z32fanatic View Post
FYP because Stuart Scott butchered the #s, followed by Matt Millen suggesting that because Manning is an above average QB that would somehow skew it towards giving him the ball being optimal....
SHOCKED that Millen might mess that up. I refuse to watch one second of Matt Millen's analysis. There is absolutely zero justification for putting him in front of the public as some kind of expert. Does he have compromising pictures of everyone in a position in power in the US or something? Matt Millen for Secretary of State next?
suzzer99 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive