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Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread) Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread)
View Poll Results: Will the Corona Virus will alter their plans to attend WSOP this Summer (if it's not canceled)
Never planned on attending.
177 32.48%
Definitely wont attend.
112 20.55%
Probably wont attend.
93 17.06%
Probably will attend.
71 13.03%
Definitely will attend.
92 16.88%

03-15-2020 , 01:09 PM
Boyd Gaming casinos in 4 states closing due to coronavirus


"In Southern Nevada, Boyd operates The Orleans, Gold Coast, Suncoast, Sam’s Town and Eastside Cannery in Las Vegas, the California, Main Street Station and the Fremont in downtown Las Vegas, Aliante and the Cannery in North Las Vegas, and Joker’s Wild and Eldorado in Henderson."

"In Nevada, the Nevada Gaming Commission has no plans to close the state’s 440 licensed nonrestricted casino properties. The commission is next scheduled to meet Thursday."

https://www.reviewjournal.com/busine...%20coronavirus

I didn't think the Nevada gaming commission would have anything to do with shutting down a casino under these circumstances. I thought that comes from Governor and/or CDC/SNHD.
03-15-2020 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why
Yes, you are right, these are the confirmed tested cases, so the actual infection figures will be much higher with all the as yet undiagnosed cases.

What we do know is that there is a 7% mortality rate, so of the 8,668,866 having the infection in four weeks in the US, 606,820 will die.
Actually we do not know that (maybe you do, but this is not general knowledge). What we do know, at least to the degree of accuracy possible is this...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

As of this morning, the death rate of confirmed cases worldwide is 5833/156400 (~3.7%) and in the US its 57/2952 (~1.9%), and 21/1143 (~1.8%) in the UK where you are quarantining yourself.

Of course, these numbers are fairly meaningless from a "mortality rate" standpoint because we do not have very accurate numbers for how many people are actually infected at any given time because of a lack of testing. People in this forum and elsewhere have touted the South Korean testing capability. In that country the death rate is 72/8086 (~0.9%). They have tested roughly .5% of their entire population as of today.

So, unless we are to believe that South Koreans have some sort of innate resistance to COVID-19 which is 3x the average US citizen, or 4x the whole world, I think it would be fair to say that the more you test, the lower the death rate becomes.

But by all means, please continue to behave as if the world is coming to an end. What could go wrong?
03-15-2020 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by timber63401
For people thats demanding they cancel 2020 WSOP now, why? If it started up April 1st then yes cancel. May 1st? Sure why not. There is no reason on their end to make that decision now or even 30 days from now. They are going to have a lot more information to work with in the next month then they can go from there.
I feel like the people demanding action on the part of the WSOP fall into two camps (if there is some other explanation I am missing, I am happy to be corrected).

1) They want some certainty and want the WSOP to provide it. Its sort of why there are runs on things like toilet paper during these sorts of crises. People feel like they can't control what's going on, so they behave in a manner and do things which they CAN control... like irrationally buying tons of toilet paper. And so, many folks would like to know if they will be able to play the WSOP in a few months, and more specifically, they would like to know now if they won't. In any case, there appears to be little reason for the WSOP to make a decision to placate this group.

2) Many people believe the situation regarding COVID-19 is much worse than both the public perception and the available information would indicate. And they believe it will continue to get worse for some time, so clearly there is no circumstance under which the WSOP could go forward, even 2.5 months from now. Some of the people in this group have a type of mental illness and their ravings should likely be ignored entirely. And some have valid concerns. Somewhere between those two levels of concern lies an appropriate reaction. I believe the WSOP waiting a minimum of another month (perhaps a bit more) to make any decision regarding the schedule fits within that reasonable compromise.

Until such time as things do actually get much worse, or simply don't get better fast enough, the WSOP has no reason to make a decision for any reason other than public pressure.
03-15-2020 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
Actually we do not know that (maybe you do, but this is not general knowledge). What we do know, at least to the degree of accuracy possible is this...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

As of this morning, the death rate of confirmed cases worldwide is 5833/156400 (~3.7%) and in the US its 57/2952 (~1.9%), and 21/1143 (~1.8%) in the UK where you are quarantining yourself.

Of course, these numbers are fairly meaningless from a "mortality rate" standpoint because we do not have very accurate numbers for how many people are actually infected at any given time because of a lack of testing. People in this forum and elsewhere have touted the South Korean testing capability. In that country the death rate is 72/8086 (~0.9%). They have tested roughly .5% of their entire population as of today.

So, unless we are to believe that South Koreans have some sort of innate resistance to COVID-19 which is 3x the average US citizen, or 4x the whole world, I think it would be fair to say that the more you test, the lower the death rate becomes.

But by all means, please continue to behave as if the world is coming to an end. What could go wrong?
OK, to explain the figures, my 7% figure is arrived at by calculating the diagnosed 83,045 cases which had an outcome had 6,455 deaths, which is actually 8%, so I will correct that figure from 7% to 8%.

The point you make is a little silly. Obviously if you test lots of people who don't have it percentage rates will fall. But of those that have it, 8% die. And as it is so infectious, most people will catch it.

So it is the end of the world for 8% who catch it.
03-15-2020 , 02:19 PM
people die faster than those who recover thus those numbers you're coming up with are wrong Jay Why
03-15-2020 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why
OK, to explain the figures, my 7% figure is arrived at by calculating the diagnosed 83,045 cases which had an outcome had 6,455 deaths, which is actually 8%, so I will correct that figure from 7% to 8%.



The point you make is a little silly. Obviously if you test lots of people who don't have it percentage rates will fall. But of those that have it, 8% die. And as it is so infectious, most people will catch it.



So it is the end of the world for 8% who catch it.

Jay,

Would you kindly read the whole thread from top to bottom before posting? There are plenty of analyses that rebut your point. One is that testing populations are biased in favor of those who have demonstrated symptoms. If you test broader populations -- as Korea has done -- you find a great many people who have been infected but show no symptoms and never develop any. And Korea's CFR remains under 1 per cent.

Toothsayer and I have a bit of a good-natures debate going as to if and how much Korea's rate will rise. He's somewhat more pessimistic than I am.
03-15-2020 , 03:01 PM
if they dont cancel by mid end of next week.

if they end up cancellin git in april then that just means we are in a situation way way worse than italy at that point in time, hopefully that doesnt happen.
03-15-2020 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
Mortality rate is nowhere near 7 per cent. In South Korea, it is running at .9 per cent. The only major country in which it is 7 per cent is Italy.

Please do some homework before posting; blatant mistakes are not helpful for anyone.
Mortality rate world wide is now 3.87%.
03-15-2020 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crane

I know. but the question is how many countries are doing population-level testing?
03-15-2020 , 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
I know. but the question is how many countries are doing population-level testing?
Probably none. The 3.87% figure is of cases we know--up from 3.4% by the way.

That being said I am suddenly more optimistic than pessimistic. When there is blood (panic) on the streets that usually signifies the end, or the beginning of the end.

I won't panic until there is no food to be had. Then, we have a problem.
03-15-2020 , 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
I know. but the question is how many countries are doing population-level testing?
In epidemiology terms, the fatality rates being published widely here and elsewhere are CFR or case fatality rate and are a multiple of confirmed diagnosis instances. There is also an important rate known as IFR or infection fatality rate which is the percentage of all those infected who die. There aren’t even very good estimates of IFR right now because they know there are many infected persons who are never diagnosed.
03-15-2020 , 03:25 PM
Liv Boeree: Top 7 Worst Coronavirus Arguments

03-15-2020 , 03:25 PM
Saw an interesting article on BBC how the states could be in for a world of hurt, more than Italy, because of all the uninsured and undocumented people not seeking attention and treatment
03-15-2020 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
Saw an interesting article on BBC how the states could be in for a world of hurt, more than Italy, because of all the uninsured and undocumented people not seeking attention and treatment
there is no treatment though? I mean unless you're choking and feel like you're going to die you're better off staying home and trying to heal on your own
03-15-2020 , 03:36 PM
Most people who get it and are relatively healthy will eventually get better. There are no medications for this as it is a virus.
03-15-2020 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
Saw an interesting article on BBC how the states could be in for a world of hurt, more than Italy, because of all the uninsured and undocumented people not seeking attention and treatment
One of the really eye-opening facts about the Italian situation is that Italy has almost twice as many doctors per capita as the US does. So even setting aside the insurance issues, they should really be in much better shape to handle to a health care crisis than America is.
03-15-2020 , 03:51 PM
Apparently the uninsured can accelerate the spread by not getting their symptoms diagnosed or getting tested. However some states and even loltrump have been floating providing relief for the uninsured as this is an obvious flaw in the health care system during a pandemic
03-15-2020 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why
OK, to explain the figures, my 7% figure is arrived at by calculating the diagnosed 83,045 cases which had an outcome had 6,455 deaths, which is actually 8%, so I will correct that figure from 7% to 8%.

The point you make is a little silly. Obviously if you test lots of people who don't have it percentage rates will fall. But of those that have it, 8% die. And as it is so infectious, most people will catch it.

So it is the end of the world for 8% who catch it.
I have no idea where your numbers come from. As far as I can tell they're from you're imagination, but if I'm wrong and you would like to cite your sources, then I'll be glad to take a look.

As for the rest, expanded testing will show many more people test positive and are not dying. So the mortality rate will go down quite a bit (at least from the initial elevated figures) when we have a better grasp on how widespread it is.
03-15-2020 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
Apparently the uninsured can accelerate the spread by not getting their symptoms diagnosed or getting tested. However some states and even loltrump have been floating providing relief for the uninsured as this is an obvious flaw in the health care system during a pandemic
sounds like socialism to me. if you can't afford a test you don't deserve it. period. idc if it benefits the majority, we need to stick to capitalist principles.

I've heard some local governments are even providing lunches to poor kids while schools are closed. the nerve of these socialists... ffs humans can go 30+ days without food why should MY tax dollars go toward gorging some random chonker??

Spoiler:
wall street bailout was necessary tho. who else will look out for our ceo's?
03-15-2020 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
One of the really eye-opening facts about the Italian situation is that Italy has almost twice as many doctors per capita as the US does. So even setting aside the insurance issues, they should really be in much better shape to handle to a health care crisis than America is.
Visiting a doctor will not make it less likely you die from this or any other disease. The only thing outside of your own ability to fight disease, that will help if you have symptoms, is access to medication or medical equipment (for acute cases). I don't know what the situation is in Italy with regards to those things.
03-15-2020 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why
The reason you were on the "let's wait and see if this becomes a big enough problem for the WSOP to take action" and the reason, despite all the evidence available, that you are STILL on the bandwagon, is that you lack the intelligence to calculate the increase of the infection by the time of the WSOP.

If you want to educate yourself on this, please visit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c..._United_States

There you will see it is increasing an average of 29 - 35% a day in the US.

With US infections at 2,952, at 33% growth per day, in 7 days it will have infected 21,730.

A week later it would be 159,970.

A week later it would be 1,177,608.

A week later it would be 8,668,866

I still wonder at what point you will get off your stupid bandwagon, and realise there is a problem NOW and that the WSOP should stop NOW.
You've completely missed the point. Even if everything you've said is true, and there is literally no chance of the WSOP going ahead in any way, shape, or form, the only harm being caused by them not cancelling now is that the few people who would still go if it happened continue to keep their hopes up. Otherwise, it has no effect on anyone - the WSOP is well over two months away. Many of the events are over three months away.

Looking at your subsequent posts, it seems you are frustrated that things haven't been/aren't being locked down, and I understand that. Whether the WSOP is cancelled or not now, more than two months ahead, has no relation to that lockdown. But if it makes you feel better to rant and rave and insult my intelligence, I'm glad it helped.
03-15-2020 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
I know. but the question is how many countries are doing population-level testing?

That is why Singapore's numbers are the best and should be trusted. The country with the worst numbers has to be the USA.
03-15-2020 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
Visiting a doctor will not make it less likely you die from this or any other disease. The only thing outside of your own ability to fight disease, that will help if you have symptoms, is access to medication or medical equipment (for acute cases). I don't know what the situation is in Italy with regards to those things.
This might be true of Coronavirus, but it certainly isn’t true of -any- disease. There are plenty of diseases that can cured with fairly easily available antibiotics, which someone obviously isn’t going to get if they don’t go to a doctor.

I also don’t know about the availability of medical equipment or facilities in Italy relative to America. I do think in most cases it would be reasonable to assume that this is pretty highly correlated with the number of doctors.
03-15-2020 , 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
Saw an interesting article on BBC how the states could be in for a world of hurt, more than Italy, because of all the uninsured and undocumented people not seeking attention and treatment
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
there is no treatment though? I mean unless you're choking and feel like you're going to die you're better off staying home and trying to heal on your own
Quote:
Originally Posted by EastCoastBalla
Most people who get it and are relatively healthy will eventually get better. There are no medications for this as it is a virus.
LOL, what??

You guys know that people die from this, right? There are lots of things that can be done for people that are very sick with a respiratory illness to keep them alive so they can hopefully recover. The % that fall into this category may be small, but as the numbers who have Covid increase, so will the numbers who need hospitalization. That's why everyone's concerned about flattening the curve - so medical facilities aren't overwhelmed, and those who are acutely ill get the help they need. In the US, there is the additional problem that nutella is talking about - what happens to the extremely sick who are uninsured or undocumented? Even if they would be helped in times like this, there may be a % that feel they won't be and don't come in. Or could they be forced to go to only certain facilities that are more overwhelmed than others?

And then don't forget those who still need emergency care for other things, just like they did before Covid. Heart attacks, life-threatening injuries, etc. They need the same care they needed before, and if the hospitals are overwhelmed, that's another group of people who are at higher risk because they can't get the help they need.
03-15-2020 , 04:42 PM
The UK and the US will have by far the highest fatality rate.

We are 2 of the 2 unhealthiest nations on the planet. Fattiest will be dropping like flies.

      
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