Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte) - Page 33

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10-18-2011 , 12:07 PM

#801

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

fyi-- disko system picks this week:

Arizona +4 vs. PIT
Minnesota + 10.5 vs. GB

10-18-2011 , 12:13 PM

#802

Vintage00

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,513

There's no way the Min/GB line stays anywhere near there.

edit: I'm seeing +9 for Viqueens/Packers already

10-18-2011 , 12:20 PM

#803

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vintage00

There's no way the Min/GB line stays anywhere near there.

edit: I'm seeing +9 for Viqueens/Packers already

yeah, i remember seeing it open at that and now on covers.com it seems that most books have it at 8.5-9.5 already.

it's interesting because usually, for these games, the lines get better as the week goes on. but +10.5 is a ton, even considering how bad the vikes are.

i wonder how it'll move if ponder is announced starter...

10-18-2011 , 03:46 PM

#804

Christophersen

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 11,733

but will ponder help their defense?
even if ponder is better, or even good.. they still need to stop the packers to keep that line close

10-18-2011 , 03:56 PM

#805

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

yeah, minn+9.5 or whatever is one of the scarier ones i've seen this season but it really just FEELS like green bay is too good to be true here. these are the games that build casinos, imo.

the covers.com consensus is like 87% green bay. one of my old systems was to go against the consensus when it went over 80% (although i only did this for NFL and NBA).

10-18-2011 , 04:04 PM

#806

Christophersen

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I think this will be one of those games that if they stay within two scores for longer than the first half it'll be amazingly close compared to what was expected.

10-18-2011 , 04:06 PM

#807

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

Thing is that Minnesota is such a damn greasefire in the second half of games so far this year that they're just not the type of dog you want to bet on even when given a nice chunk of points.

10-18-2011 , 05:45 PM

#808

LazyTops5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,935

I bet against GB this year when the lines were +12.5 and +15.5 both which were terrible teams and I wouldn't make that mistake again...

10-18-2011 , 06:02 PM

#809

Vintage00

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LazyTops5

I bet against GB this year when the lines were +12.5 and +15.5 both which were terrible teams and I wouldn't make that mistake again...

hahaha i was just coming in to respond to disko by saying "GB covered 12.5 and 15.5 so far this year, soooo..."

10-18-2011 , 06:08 PM

#810

GusJohnsonGOAT

SESwamiGOAT

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 16,503

Packers easily cover that. If the Packers don't win by at least 2 TDs, they should be embarrassed.

10-18-2011 , 06:12 PM

#811

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

Embarrassment in your wins is a college-only thing as far as I'm concerned. Same thing with moral victories.

In the NFL, a win is a win and moral victories don't really exist.

10-18-2011 , 06:13 PM

#812

GusJohnsonGOAT

SESwamiGOAT

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 16,503

Quote:

Originally Posted by LKJ

Embarrassment in your wins is a college-only thing as far as I'm concerned. Same thing with moral victories.

In the NFL, a win is a win and moral victories don't really exist.

Ok, ok, maybe that was a little hyperbolic.

10-18-2011 , 06:18 PM

#813

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

I know what you're saying though. I used to get disenchanted with ugly wins. Ultimately I've changed my mind on all of that.

I've always been annoyed by the thing where a good team ekes out a win over a bad team, and then multitudes of people declare that they "got lucky."

Me: "What? How did they get lucky?"
Them: "It was close."
Me: "But they deserved to win, didn't they? There weren't any game-changing bad calls or game-changing lucky plays?"
Them: "Well, no, but it's lucky to play that badly and win."
Me:

10-19-2011 , 12:02 PM

#814

Vintage00

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Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,513

I was more upset during UGA's win over Ole Miss than I was after the Boise St loss for that exact reason.

10-19-2011 , 12:21 PM

#815

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

Well there are definitely ugly losses in college. I don't mean to diminish that. "Getting lucky" is a charge that gets thrown around stupidly, but if a team with vastly superior talent (like the talent gaps you'll see in college at times) just ekes out a win, then it's really not a happy result. Far superior to losing to the same team, but still.

10-19-2011 , 01:20 PM

#816

Vintage00

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Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,513

Moral of the story: GB's going to cover

10-19-2011 , 01:26 PM

#817

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by GusJohnsonGOAT

Packers easily cover that. If the Packers don't win by at least 2 TDs, they should be embarrassed.

sounds like you should bet it then

10-19-2011 , 01:27 PM

#818

Vintage00

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I'm going to.

10-19-2011 , 03:34 PM

#819

Christophersen

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 11,733

I'm confused why Wisconsin dropped to 6 in the BCS standings. Every other poll has them at 4.
BCS hate itt. wtf?

10-19-2011 , 03:37 PM

#820

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,120

because they played the team currently ranked 145 in sagarin elo. Out of 120 1-a schools.

you dont know much about college football do you

10-19-2011 , 03:40 PM

#821

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

Yeah, these fluctuations happen. There was no way for anything positive to happen for Wisconsin from playing Indiana no matter what their margin of victory. You'll get a rub if you win in East Lansing.

10-19-2011 , 11:27 PM

#822

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,120

the nfl thread in SE this week might be the worst thread on the site

10-19-2011 , 11:34 PM

#823

Vintage00

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,513

Quote:

Originally Posted by Christophersen

Wisconsin should be able to play anybody they want and not worry about ever dropping in rankings as long as they win... wtf?

how i read that post

10-19-2011 , 11:58 PM

#824

GoCubsGo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,447

Wow, disko. Your system is strongly going against my intuition. I'm going to veto the Minnesota game, bet the Cards/Steelers game.

what's better, AZ +3.5, -104; OR AZ +4.5, -115?