except as others have pointed out my vote plus all the wolves would not be a majority.

Nevertheless, point well taken and will not snap vote anyone tomorrow.

I think Nich thinks we are at 6-5 not 7-5.

i think it was mostly just bad TODAY bc we only had the one kill and needed to work out this info.. but if votes arent locked and maj isnt just one misvote/wolves then idk

We're at must-shun so we have to vote wolves.

I think this is what happens:

Today (7v, 5w) elim Crossnerd
Tonight (7v, 4w) nk [villa list A]
Tomorrow (6v, 4w) elim sixfour
Tomorrow night (6v, 3w) nk [villa list A]
f8 (5v, 3w) elim [wolf list 1]
f8 night (5v, 2w) nk [villa list B]
f6 (4v, 2w) elim [wolf list 1]
f6 night (4v, 1w) nk [villa list B]
f4 (3v, 1w) elim last remaining wolf

Where:

Villa list A = wdcbooks, Kukraprout
Villa list B = whoever the last wolf doesn't want to face at f4
Wolf List 1 = atakdog, KruZe, gusmahler, whoever is on your personal most-wolfy list

Point is villa list A will be resolved for us by wolves and we'll have more info available for folks who are being swayed by atak's posting today.

is it must lynch for the rest of the game or is there a day in there with some room for error

I am here for a bit. I will vote how the cleareds want me to. I've made very clear from the start of the game that I wanted to vote for cross and of course I haven't changed my mind, but I'm OK with others.


re felix's argument that I have gone into "anti-spew": the obvious event to deal with was the claim that I "had" to be the wolf vig; that obviously caught my attention. No, I have not read anyone else. That isn't anti-spew, that's that I don't have much in the way of independent thought. Nich is clear imo, jonny seems clear. Sixfour has done nothing particularly villagery and aaronk is always pretty meh, as he is here. Nothing original, I know.

and the other point is that if we merge all of our "wolf list 1"s the list is too long, we still have to clear like 2 villas, so we can't safely put atak at the end of our joint "wolf list 1" for good behavior or whatever

so we don't have room to 'resolve' people before atak, either our joint "wolf list 1" is exactly the wolf team, or we have to eliminate wolfiest -> less wolfiest. I'm fine with sixfour > atakdog but thus far atak's posting today hasn't really moved the needle for me, he's still basically lock wolf. As I see it he was already like 90% wolf - the only reason it's not 100% is that there are too many wolves and not enough villas clearing themselves - and Kukra's claim only reinforces that view for me.

atakdog, on the off chance you're villa, for me personally the most useful thing you can do is demonstrate why Nich is clear.

People keep calling him clear without explaining beyond "this is villa Nich". I'm starting to lean in that direction too, but I think he got a bit too much credit for mechanics posts. Is he an obvious wolf when he wolfs or something?

At some point we might consider a "no Shun" day if the mods allow it, but we can not vote off a villager at any point.

Felix, I just don't remember him doing this sort of thing as a wolf, and I definitely do remember it when he's a villager. Nothing solid, and of course it's easy and safe for a wolf to post about mechanics, but I have decided that it's less likely. Plus, given that we're at mustlynch and a single error is fatal, there wouldn't really be any need for wolf-Nich to bother.


That was the initial read. then there's the biased part that he accepted the Tokyo-kill possibility, while I think wolf-Nich could not entirely discount it, but devalue it enough that it left me a likely lynch soon.

aaronk56 has a good point, I had forgotten that "no shun" is an option.

if we list who has been solving vs who hasnt the order is like

kukraprout
wdcbooks
jonnyd
aaronk
nichp
felix
youknowwho
sixfour
gus
atak
kruze
crossnerd

i think i would go so far as saying i'd be surprised if the bottom 5 was the wolf team only bc that feels like it'd be too easy

that said i do think that there is likely 3 in that 5.. and i'd even say that i think its 4/5 more often than its 2/5

right forgot that was a thing.. if allowable that could be valuable

I believe this is always a bad idea.


Picture it at f3: One of two villages errs and the game is over.


Now picture it at f4: One villager errs and the other two may still go right to take it to a flip.

My read on Nich is that when he is a villager, his wagon analysis posts read logically and just sound better, when he tries to replicate that as a wolf, he has to makes mistakes in his logic, or he gives too much information away, so they don't seem as logical. They read like he is forcing some information to fit the narrative.

This game I have been reading him as village Nich. Full disclosure, I initially said that I read him as wolf Nich but took a harder look.

i think as a wolf nich would have used the mechanics posting to be more assertive but maybe im wrong about that. i do think there is an argument that he hasn't made too many hard reads and is posting mainly about mechanics but i think there have been opportunities where if he had an agenda it probably would have come up.

that said the game has gone very pro wolf without his steering so maybe he didnt feel the need. might come up later though

...and it would actually be good to "no shun" today, even. It forces the wolves to accelerate their NK schedule a little bit, we get more info sooner and they get less info to decide who they want to f3 with. Less room for them to shape or level the f3 village than if we i.e. "no shunned" at f4.

With the exception of me, I think this is close. I don't know why you have aak so high but I guess I'd need to reread. Felix and ykw sometimes weird me out, and particularly with felix calling me a "lock wolf", which I don't think is at all justified from any perspective, but I do get villagery vibes from them both.


Obviously I do focus more on myself because I haven't been as engaged as I like but with that in mind, I do notice big differences between "atak has been wolfy" (I don't like it but I get it) and "atak is a lock wolf", which I think is silly. But then I think riverfish did the same thing.

We've been leveling ourselves into eliminating high-content high-participation players while leaving low-content low-participation players alive.

It may literally be the bottom 5 of that list.

I keep wavering on YKW vs. gus. YKW's body of work is better, but his wolfy moments have been really wolfy.

im not following. dont disagree, just dont follow

maybe it stems from me not being sure what info we gain.
i do think i see the logic that wolves will have less to go on in terms of molding their optimal f3
i also just kind of think we likely have a wolf today so why not yeet one and maybe we do no shun on like f8 or f6

I'm sorry I mentioned it. No shun is a bad idea. I was just trying to give johnny a complete answer.

Seriously, no shun/ostracize/expel/whatever is bad. A better ratio of villagers to wolves means not only a mistake can flip rather than auto-lose, it also increases the ratio of good analysis to bad. And with several clear or almost clear villegrs, it's not as if there will be much extra information gained to make up for the theoretical loss in equity.

yea i agree we've just been pushing off low participation 'for later' and going after each other and now we're here and it still sucks but i suppose prolonged low participation is more damning than just 1-2 days of it

As far as giving wolves less to go on in deciding the final kills, the solution to THAT is for villagers not to make 100% clear what they're going to do in the future.

That’s right we are 2 above wolves bc no vig kill; I forgot that

So one village voting villager doesn’t lose the game

But let’s still be careful