so a few people enter the thread over the next hour or so including me

Felix mentions the shorty dilemma but says he wants to avoid it to get to work. could go either way. to his credit, felix does 'get to work' and follows up with this. i think his reasoning for the river read is quite interesting, and even more interesting if river flips wolf.

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sixfour pops in at 1:40 EDT and does not post again until 3.5 hours later where i guess he fired up a tourney and despite not posting, is caught up with the situation and has the good sense to avoid it. i'll include his next post for posterity

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i dont think its worth me doing commentary on my posts because people probably wouldnt believe anything i attribute that isnt in the text, but i do think it's notable that im the only one who spoke up about (not) participating in the contest between the three of us
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right after this felix and i contrast in how we decide we want to navigate the shortline claim stuff.

two things, my shortline vote got his immediate attention, and this is why wolves were avoiding the subject altogether. he (wrongly) put me right in his wolf list for it but it was because he is right that a lot of wolves say "lets vote villager x today and wolf x tomorrow'.



and here's the rest of the interaction.

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next is a short interaction with felix that i thought was notable.. i usually ascribe to the idea that wolves are slow to clear too many people or make sharp jumps in reads because they are afraid of the scrutiny of a lack of natural progression... here are felix and i talking about tokyo, who was doing so much work that morning.

idk i dont think its damning in itself but i do think it deserves some wolf points to keep the door open to not strongly clear tokyo (yes i realize he flipped SK)

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one last entrance post

gun to my head i think this looks more v than it does w, the 'not going to be around much part' is really the only wolfy part. but AK56 doesn't just park on shortline and peace out, he comes back later and ends up on coordi (him and i have similar progressions throughout the day which is why i lean villager)

oh and since i didnt say it explicitly, i think sixfour's grandpa simpsons in and out entrance in that game state and thread state is hella wolfy, especially in conjunction with his followup post

further cementing my villa read of ak56, in the span of a page aaronk admits to semiderp posts about forgetting vig shots could miss and not knowing that there was no n0 peek

he's just not the type to angleshoot like this. hes a grown ass man

a few more entrance posts from d2

is it wrong that i think both of these posts are role neutral for both of these people lol

not an entrance but after quoting his last few posts i figured i should quote a post where he shares some thoughts. notable that he feels compelled to soft defend/wants to punt on CQ who has no votes but has been thrown around as a wolf by shorty and a few others... but wasn't really part of the discussion at all



^vote count for context
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here's a very notable post

below is riverfish's FIRST post of the day at 6PM, ~3 hours before EOD.. and i'm not sure how or why he "still" likes shortline/luckbox wagons. his most recent post prior to this was with an hour left before EOD, which is why he starts off quoting a DMK post from 9AM that he feels the need to comment on because he hasnt yet because he wasnt around all day.

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as far as spew analysis goes we have cracked saying he wants to vote atak, and giving me, ykw and felix villa reads. i honestly dont know what to make of that list of 3. and is there any way he really just made a post with 6 villagers in it? not impossible but seems unlikely

hi kruze ill be nice lets talk

hey guys jonnyd

whatcha thinkin

got any spicy reads for me?

I can't help feel that all that "work" you just did was an easy way for a wolf to appear to be doing something, it was mostly just recapping stuff that happened right? any grand conclusions from all that work?

yeah. i have some regrets especially since it was just me in thread and it makes it feel spammy, but its not my fault no one else is posting to interact with!

it was mostly an effort for me to read the thread more closely and get a better hang on things (i dont know if youve noticed but ive been very wrong about almost everything all game) and just share notable things that i think could be useful for the villa coalition

if they appreciate the work thats great but i know its not clearing

i do feel like i have a much better handle on some of the 'unknowns' (aaronk, youknowwho) and hopefully if im right about them i can help swing things / set us up for an epic comeback

sixfour (2)
gusmahler (8)
dmk (23)
aaronk56 (6)
atakdog (0)
Crossnerd (0),
Felix the Cat (17)
jonnyd (29)
Kukraprout (26),
Nicholasp27 (5),
riverfish1 (12),
wdcbooks (11),
YouKnowWho (6)

This is about where I'm at right now, green = pretty sure villa, orange = idk red=woofin prolly

wont lie i had a feeling the spicy read would be about me and was trying to consider ahead of time if youd be more likely to involve me as a wolf or villa

spoiler: it was inconclusive

care to make it easier for me?

or maybe you have secret villager or deep wolf reads u want to share?

how many wolves are left?

lol xpost

any specifics like interactions or memorable posts from youknowwho? if you dont feel like quoting i dont mind going back if you have an idea when they happened

2 dead so 5 wolves left

lol

well I was really feelin it... and it was spicy... so I had to say it

I WANT you to be a villa though... I think your head's been in the game in a villagery way... so there is no way I'm voting you anytime soon. I don't think I recall what your wolf game is even like...

Is your play so far within your wolf range?

so far I was wrong on Luckbox Inc... but I blame him for that

I was right on coordi and was an early coordi voter (i think i was 3rd person to vote) and didn't change.

I called out river day 1 as having a wolf read on him, so I hope that plays out to be correct.

So my reads haven't really been terrible so far and I'm feelin good bout my reads. I believe villa gonna win this. Most of the villas that flipped I had as villa. I wasn't sure what crackedquads was, they would've been orange on my list today if that woof was still alive.

I was recently tunneled in Mafia Champion Series 7 by a villager for two days straight, so that's kinda fresh in my mind, YouKnowWho has been tunneling me everyday here, and it feels like it's in a wolfy way compared to how the villager tunneled me in the Mafia game. Almost like he felt it would be easy to mislynch me so he latched onto that idea, and has been doubling down daily as an easy way to not have to really go into reads on other players... as long as he has me to want to lynch, that's all he gonna do lol... wolfy.

i think there's been a few things that are outside of my wolf range (i know this **** is pointless bc no one will take my word for it but its fun to talk about)

i think last night theres no way i go on and on about lynching outside the claim with a wolf being 1 vote away from being hammered. i think its also hard to fake how wrong/sincere i was without slipping

but like even today all the busy work.. nothing that i couldnt do as a wolf but i dont think i would have had the energy to keep it up this long especially given game state

What is your take on YouKnowWho?

yea i think i agree. on reread i think luckbox felt like self voting and making himself a wagon was the only way he could stir things up on a dead day that seemed like shorty was gonna go down with no info gained.. dustin was afraid to even vote what he wanted bc he felt like it'd just derail things. hard for sure but after his d1 with aao he was just a blackhole of attention that needed to be resolved

which day did you vote coordi, d3?

meant to say more about that post ^

i think your explanation of how you wouldn't go on about lynching outside of the claim when the wolf is 1 vote away from being capped makes sense... but on the flip side it could just be a wolf trying to save a wolf bro and not afraid to be wrong

i remember a couple people were kinda pushing for lynching outside the claim, crossnerd comes to mind... and it just kinda seemed laughable from my point of view, that seer claim from coordi was like... not convincing at all lol to me at least...

i think its understandable that you have him as a wolf bc he has been tunneling you. though i do think even you know that you have been posting in a way that draws scrutiny.. i think its a stretch to say that is all he is doing, he has made some pretty thoughtful posts, but his agenda/votes/actions do seem very prioritized on you and crossnerd dying.

i think unless YKW is extremely bussy i'd say you two are in order of likelihood:
v/w > v/v >>>> w/w

think I only voted him once/the day he was killed

I remember people having a wolf lean on coordi early day 1 and I didn't disagree, but I'm not familiar enough with coordis game to really speak up about him at that time.

yea i dont blame anyone for not finding it convincing but i still feel compelled to lay it out for people for some reason.

coming from me its easy to flip and just say ah you were doing that so you could say you'd never do it to get credit for it, but that doesnt take into account the amount of energy that kind of posting takes and based on the general energy of the thread it's kind of hard to be the only one making noise.. if i did all of that before dear leader wdcbooks Gladiator thumbs down'd Coordi then fine, but afterwards.. idk its just hard for me to imagine spending my fri evening doing so when a) wolves have a backup and b) up to that point a single wolf hadnt died