'07-'09 REUNION - REDUX: Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead: Battle of the Minor Characters
06-27-2020
, 04:24 PM
DANCE, DANCE, DANCE, DANCE!!!!
06-27-2020
, 04:27 PM
the negativity... it's making me... ow that hurts. my skin is expanding WHY STOP THIS HURTS AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAHRRRGGGGGGG
*FEROCIOUS RAWWWWWRRRRRRRR*
*FEROCIOUS RAWWWWWRRRRRRRR*

06-27-2020
, 04:28 PM
coordi was wolf watcher/tracker or vanilla wolf at this point
cracked quads was wolf backup and tokyo took him out for us
bigger was seer and likely joat vig kill since writeup different than others
jail was in play in writeup so wolves must have tried to eat books but he was saved by jail
that also means wolf vig lost flip and didn't get their kill last night, which means they will get a kill tonight
14 players left, 5 are wolves so 9 v 5
if we mis-shun it'll be 8v5 then after night happens 6v5; if we get a wolf, then it'll be 9v4 then 7v4 after night
then wolf vig has no more kills after n4
wolf seer only deals with sk so basically vanilla
joat likely used vig kill so basically vanilla bc we don't care about true peek, track or angel since no village powers left
wolf roleblocker can't block when we have no villa night actions left
wolf watcher and wolf backup dead
1 vanilla wolf left
so it's basically a vanilla game after tonight's vig kill with us being 1 mistake from must-shun whether they vig or not
need 9 clear players:
books
dmk seer peeked
kukra seer peeked (also claimed jailed books which fits with writeup)
village roleblocker once they claim
so only 4 so we will need to find all the rest of the wolves
9v5 now, we shun a wolf
they eat and vig books and dmk
7v4 we shun a wolf
they eat kukra
6v3 we shun a wolf
they eat village roleblocker
5v2 we shun a villager
they eat a villager
3v2 we shun a wolf
they eat a villager
2v1 final day
cracked quads was wolf backup and tokyo took him out for us
bigger was seer and likely joat vig kill since writeup different than others
jail was in play in writeup so wolves must have tried to eat books but he was saved by jail
that also means wolf vig lost flip and didn't get their kill last night, which means they will get a kill tonight
14 players left, 5 are wolves so 9 v 5
if we mis-shun it'll be 8v5 then after night happens 6v5; if we get a wolf, then it'll be 9v4 then 7v4 after night
then wolf vig has no more kills after n4
wolf seer only deals with sk so basically vanilla
joat likely used vig kill so basically vanilla bc we don't care about true peek, track or angel since no village powers left
wolf roleblocker can't block when we have no villa night actions left
wolf watcher and wolf backup dead
1 vanilla wolf left
so it's basically a vanilla game after tonight's vig kill with us being 1 mistake from must-shun whether they vig or not
need 9 clear players:
books
dmk seer peeked
kukra seer peeked (also claimed jailed books which fits with writeup)
village roleblocker once they claim
so only 4 so we will need to find all the rest of the wolves
9v5 now, we shun a wolf
they eat and vig books and dmk
7v4 we shun a wolf
they eat kukra
6v3 we shun a wolf
they eat village roleblocker
5v2 we shun a villager
they eat a villager
3v2 we shun a wolf
they eat a villager
2v1 final day
06-27-2020
, 04:29 PM
man, a lot of the first half of day1b is just all villagers talking. i know this isn't a new revelation or one that i hold myself, but i do agree that there is a chance that many of the remaining wolves are low volume.
and so it follows that there aren't many posts in that stretch that i find worth bringing up for discussion, but i did find one where from crackedquads that id like some other eyes on this post.. the selection of people is the wolf team from the "first" game before the re-rand (minus shorty who hadnt posted apparently) but him putting them into baskets at the end / with some explanation above but there's probably info to be gleamed from this post.
*coloring at the bottom and * notes are mine
so the two unknowns in the list are Riverfish and YKW, one who cracked has as a wolf and one who he has as a villager
since ive been rereading there have been a few posts by riverfish that i dont like. there is a chance that he has just been a villager who is wrong (can't say i or many others dont fit this category either) but i think he is both forcing reads (i dont agree with many of the conclusions he is coming to or the way he is getting there) and often hedging those reads, which is what i find most wolfy about him
as far as youknowwho goes, i think he has made some odd posts and some that i'd almost classify as too wolfy to be a wolf.. i think his day yesterday was good. i dont think i would clear him but i lean villager. some of that read is based on who has been pushing him. as i reread he is someone whose interactions i have been trying to read into more than others.
and so it follows that there aren't many posts in that stretch that i find worth bringing up for discussion, but i did find one where from crackedquads that id like some other eyes on this post.. the selection of people is the wolf team from the "first" game before the re-rand (minus shorty who hadnt posted apparently) but him putting them into baskets at the end / with some explanation above but there's probably info to be gleamed from this post.
*coloring at the bottom and * notes are mine
Quote:
Had some time last night and tried to reference the wolves from the original thread to compare them to the new game. Original game = lockgame. Note that Shortline wolf never posted.
BIGGERBOAT
Original/lockgame few posts, all low effort one liners with no reads on anyone. Post freq/effort in this game appear to be very similar to the original game. Shows up, makes a few posts with no reads and is gone. As wolf in lockgame he enters with a ‘sup’ and here a ’sup redux’. I think frequency and extreme lack of effort similarities make me lean wolf. I believe he's pretty experienced so this could just be his consistent game style. Thoughts?
RIVERFISH
Original wolf game: comes out guns blazing with a mets vote (isn’t in the game). Crafts a post about luckbox being a wolf (both are). Makes multiple off topic posts about mets, who isn’t in the game. Responds to lockbox’s snap counter vote then disappears for 5 hours til lock.
In this game similarly snap comes out blasting with a wolf read and vote, referencing a couple of posts. The initial luckbox push in lockgame and initial push here strike me as similar.
RF does however go on to actually question/respond to a few posts from several players which feel much more fact finding than his clear manufactured luckbox push+disappearance in the wolf locked game. Obviously his lock game disappearance could be coincidental but regardless I like the effort I’m seeing this game. I lean villager
LUCKBOX
As noted before, snap claims seer as a wolf in lockgame, snap claims wolf in this game (also snap claims wolf as a SK in the previous game he sent a link in). In wolf lockgame snap votes/pushes three of his wolf bros (dmk, riverfish and YKW). Posts a ton
In current game also posts a ton, though actually has some villager reads rather than just pushing his wolfbros for wolfiness. His stated wolf reads in current game also feel softer/less sure than his immediate harder “reads” of his wolf bros as a wolf in original lockgame. The difference makes my impression lean villager.
KUKRAPROUT
In wolf lockgame makes lots of low effort meta posts that don’t have much to do with the game he was in. Quickly made a riverfish vote (wolfbro) with no reasoning and then half hour later switches off to a “serious” vote on sixfour (a villager) - also with no reasoning.
In current game purposefully revotes sixfour to “balance his range.” Later changes his vote to aao, again without any reasoning like he did in the lockgame. Later backtracks upon a reread and unvotes. Makes several more meta posts like he did in lockgame. Really appears to make no reads that I can find while making a decent amount of non-curious posts. Seems consistent with his original wolf game and the consistent lack of real hunting in this one makes me lean wolfy.
DMK
In lockgame as a wolf made ~two dozen low effort one liner posts. Talks to his wolfbros some, makes an unexplained vote on a villager, changes it to another villager without reasoning, changes it to a third villager without reasoning. Talks about some meta/mechanic stuff. Makes basically nothing in the way of reads.
In current game similarly makes one liner low effort posts, similarly votes for people without explanation. Claims to be all caught up but notably claims he doesn’t want to comment on anything at this point. I lean wolf.
YOUKNOWWHO
Opens original lockgame as a wolf claiming to not really remember how to play and that he’ll avoid spewing the thread. Claims he’s excited. Talks about game mechanics and explains why he might not be around much. Never makes a single read or vote that I can find after his original post.
In current game similarly opens explaining how he might not be around much, but now due to lack of excitement as he’s no longer a wolf rather than life circumstances. This is his only post all day.
Given the similar openings and extreme lack of volume, I lean wolf
As such
Wolf
Biggerboat
Kukraprout *peeked v?*
DMK *peeked v?*
Youknowwho
Villager
Riverfish
Luckbox
BIGGERBOAT
Original/lockgame few posts, all low effort one liners with no reads on anyone. Post freq/effort in this game appear to be very similar to the original game. Shows up, makes a few posts with no reads and is gone. As wolf in lockgame he enters with a ‘sup’ and here a ’sup redux’. I think frequency and extreme lack of effort similarities make me lean wolf. I believe he's pretty experienced so this could just be his consistent game style. Thoughts?
RIVERFISH
Original wolf game: comes out guns blazing with a mets vote (isn’t in the game). Crafts a post about luckbox being a wolf (both are). Makes multiple off topic posts about mets, who isn’t in the game. Responds to lockbox’s snap counter vote then disappears for 5 hours til lock.
In this game similarly snap comes out blasting with a wolf read and vote, referencing a couple of posts. The initial luckbox push in lockgame and initial push here strike me as similar.
RF does however go on to actually question/respond to a few posts from several players which feel much more fact finding than his clear manufactured luckbox push+disappearance in the wolf locked game. Obviously his lock game disappearance could be coincidental but regardless I like the effort I’m seeing this game. I lean villager
LUCKBOX
As noted before, snap claims seer as a wolf in lockgame, snap claims wolf in this game (also snap claims wolf as a SK in the previous game he sent a link in). In wolf lockgame snap votes/pushes three of his wolf bros (dmk, riverfish and YKW). Posts a ton
In current game also posts a ton, though actually has some villager reads rather than just pushing his wolfbros for wolfiness. His stated wolf reads in current game also feel softer/less sure than his immediate harder “reads” of his wolf bros as a wolf in original lockgame. The difference makes my impression lean villager.
KUKRAPROUT
In wolf lockgame makes lots of low effort meta posts that don’t have much to do with the game he was in. Quickly made a riverfish vote (wolfbro) with no reasoning and then half hour later switches off to a “serious” vote on sixfour (a villager) - also with no reasoning.
In current game purposefully revotes sixfour to “balance his range.” Later changes his vote to aao, again without any reasoning like he did in the lockgame. Later backtracks upon a reread and unvotes. Makes several more meta posts like he did in lockgame. Really appears to make no reads that I can find while making a decent amount of non-curious posts. Seems consistent with his original wolf game and the consistent lack of real hunting in this one makes me lean wolfy.
DMK
In lockgame as a wolf made ~two dozen low effort one liner posts. Talks to his wolfbros some, makes an unexplained vote on a villager, changes it to another villager without reasoning, changes it to a third villager without reasoning. Talks about some meta/mechanic stuff. Makes basically nothing in the way of reads.
In current game similarly makes one liner low effort posts, similarly votes for people without explanation. Claims to be all caught up but notably claims he doesn’t want to comment on anything at this point. I lean wolf.
YOUKNOWWHO
Opens original lockgame as a wolf claiming to not really remember how to play and that he’ll avoid spewing the thread. Claims he’s excited. Talks about game mechanics and explains why he might not be around much. Never makes a single read or vote that I can find after his original post.
In current game similarly opens explaining how he might not be around much, but now due to lack of excitement as he’s no longer a wolf rather than life circumstances. This is his only post all day.
Given the similar openings and extreme lack of volume, I lean wolf
As such
Wolf
Biggerboat
Kukraprout *peeked v?*
DMK *peeked v?*
Youknowwho
Villager
Riverfish
Luckbox
since ive been rereading there have been a few posts by riverfish that i dont like. there is a chance that he has just been a villager who is wrong (can't say i or many others dont fit this category either) but i think he is both forcing reads (i dont agree with many of the conclusions he is coming to or the way he is getting there) and often hedging those reads, which is what i find most wolfy about him
as far as youknowwho goes, i think he has made some odd posts and some that i'd almost classify as too wolfy to be a wolf.. i think his day yesterday was good. i dont think i would clear him but i lean villager. some of that read is based on who has been pushing him. as i reread he is someone whose interactions i have been trying to read into more than others.
06-27-2020
, 04:33 PM
if this is real then sorry thread
06-27-2020
, 04:33 PM
updated prior coordi wagon based on new info:
shortline!V! - 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, Tokyo!SK!, books!V!, crackedquads!W!, sixfour, riverfish
coordi - 7: Felix, shortline!V!, aaron, biggerboat!V!, mrsd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd
luckbox!V! - 5: Sun!V!, Kukra!V!, Kruze, coordi!W!, gus
so 5 mins until night and it's tied with luckbox!V! just behind
shorty is villa with 4 villa/sk, 1 wolf and 2 unknown
coordi is unknown with 4 villa and 3 unknowns
luckbox is villa with 2 villa, 1 wolf and 2 unknowns
we'd assume most of the wolves will be on shorty/luck
4 people were on random 1-person votes: atak, crossnerd, luckbox!V!, youknowwho
i'd assume 1 on random, 0-1 on coordi, coordi, 2-3 on shorty, 1-2 on luckbox
felix moves from coordi to shorty for no rand
shorty votes himself
now it's 9-5-5
coordi goes shorty from luckbox to make it 10-5-4
luckbox goes from random jonny vote to coordi to make it 10-6-4
sixfour, river contains 1-2 wolves
kruze, gus contains 1-2
atak, crossnerd, youknowwho contains 0-1
felix, aaron, bigger, jonny contains 0-1
so sixfour/river wagons seems pretty good; unlikely only 1 wolf on shorty on d2
shortline!V! - 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, Tokyo!SK!, books!V!, crackedquads!W!, sixfour, riverfish
coordi - 7: Felix, shortline!V!, aaron, biggerboat!V!, mrsd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd
luckbox!V! - 5: Sun!V!, Kukra!V!, Kruze, coordi!W!, gus
so 5 mins until night and it's tied with luckbox!V! just behind
shorty is villa with 4 villa/sk, 1 wolf and 2 unknown
coordi is unknown with 4 villa and 3 unknowns
luckbox is villa with 2 villa, 1 wolf and 2 unknowns
we'd assume most of the wolves will be on shorty/luck
4 people were on random 1-person votes: atak, crossnerd, luckbox!V!, youknowwho
i'd assume 1 on random, 0-1 on coordi, coordi, 2-3 on shorty, 1-2 on luckbox
felix moves from coordi to shorty for no rand
shorty votes himself
now it's 9-5-5
coordi goes shorty from luckbox to make it 10-5-4
luckbox goes from random jonny vote to coordi to make it 10-6-4
sixfour, river contains 1-2 wolves
kruze, gus contains 1-2
atak, crossnerd, youknowwho contains 0-1
felix, aaron, bigger, jonny contains 0-1
so sixfour/river wagons seems pretty good; unlikely only 1 wolf on shorty on d2
06-27-2020
, 04:52 PM
The long drive is over. Wu Tang and Nas were hits.
I feel like if we just go atak, crossnerd and Kruze we should be three for three. Then riverfish and sixfour are high probability. Jonny and Gus used to be on the village bubble, but Jonny has bee suuuuper villagery recently which has to be frustrating for the wolves.
I feel like if we just go atak, crossnerd and Kruze we should be three for three. Then riverfish and sixfour are high probability. Jonny and Gus used to be on the village bubble, but Jonny has bee suuuuper villagery recently which has to be frustrating for the wolves.
06-27-2020
, 05:11 PM
Quote:
The long drive is over. Wu Tang and Nas were hits.
I feel like if we just go atak, crossnerd and Kruze we should be three for three. Then riverfish and sixfour are high probability. Jonny and Gus used to be on the village bubble, but Jonny has bee suuuuper villagery recently which has to be frustrating for the wolves.
I feel like if we just go atak, crossnerd and Kruze we should be three for three. Then riverfish and sixfour are high probability. Jonny and Gus used to be on the village bubble, but Jonny has bee suuuuper villagery recently which has to be frustrating for the wolves.
06-27-2020
, 05:17 PM
NOT MUCH TIME LEFT TO PARTY!!!
06-27-2020
, 05:18 PM
going back to d2 to see how wagons formed:
4 hours until night it is
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 2: kukra!V!, shorty!V! <--all villa
nich!V! - gus
kukra!V! - from gus to luckbox!V!
3 hours until night it is
luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron, kukra!V!
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 3: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour
at this point it's 2 main v/v wagons with wolf gus behind or 3 v/v/v wagons...wolves don't care much and aren't on shorty; could be 0-2 on luck and 0-1 on gus
crackedquads!W! - shorty!V! <--- first wolf joins shorty wagon
kruze - youknowwho
aaron - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd
coordi!W! - gus to give him 3 votes next to 5/4 v/v wagons; villa points for gus
kruz - from youknowwho to luckbox!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd
atak - crossnerd
2 hours until night it is
shorty!V! 5: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour, coordi!W!
crossnerd 3: aaron, luckbox!V!, atak
so now 4 wagons: v/v at top and then ?/? gus/cross at bottom; a wolf on gus and 2 unknowns on crossnerd
luckbox!V! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V!
sixfour - from gus to shorty!V!
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd - gus
river - luckbox!V!
1 hour until night it is
luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, luckbox!V!, river <- 3 villa, 3 unknown
shorty!V! 6: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
crossnerd 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknown
shorty!V! - from gus to coord!W!
river - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to jonnyd
30 minutes until night it is
shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 3: nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd <- 1 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
crossnerd 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknowns
coordi!W! 2: felix, shorty!V! <- 1 villa, 1 unknown
coordi!W! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V! <- trying to get 2 strong wagons at 7/5 vs 7/4 to slow his wagon
aaron - coordi!W! <- villa points
mrsjonnyd!V! - from aaron to coordi!W!
gus - luckbox!V! <- similar to coordi trying to strenghten lead wagon before coordi gets too much traction
bigger!V! - gus
mrsjonnyd!V! - from coordi!W! to sixfour
bigger!V! - from gus to coordi!W!
18 minutes until night it is
shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 3 unknown
coordi!W! 4: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V! <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 2: nich!V!, crossnerd
mrsjonnyd!V! - from sixfour to coordi!W!
12 minute count same as above but
coordi!W! 5: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V! <- 3 villa, 2 unknown
nich!V! - gus to coordi!W!
jonnyd - luckbox!V! to coordi!W! <- villa points for tying coordi when he coulda stayed away with 10 mins left
7 minutes until night it is
shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
coordi!W! 7: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd <- 4 villa, 3 unknown
luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
a bunch of confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during the next few mins
river posted "how is shortline cleared if coordi flips wolf?"
4 minutes until night no change in vote count
more confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during next few mins
jonny posted saying shorty better be confident
felix posted asking tokyo if wolf shorty = villa coordi and vice versa
jonny posted that he doesn't think the roles are as connected as their fates are <- more villa points
2 minutes until night no change in vote count
felix - from coordi!W! to shorty!V! <- felix was first on coordi early on and then jumps off now; wolfy but ballsy to save a wolf, but coordi still had power at that point
shorty!V! - from coordi!W! to shorty!V!
coordi!W! - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from jonnyd to coordi!W!
still a lot of unknown roles in the above, but the picture is getting clearer and this can help over the next few days as we get more roles
aaron and jonny look pretty good based on when they jumped on coordi; wolves didn't need to do that and making him a top 3 wagon makes him a "must resolve" player along with vig target, so not worth it
need 9 clear players:
books
dmk seer peeked
kukra seer peeked (also claimed jailed books which fits with writeup)
village roleblocker once they claim
-------
nich
aaron
jonny
that's 7
looking at the wagons, it doesn't seem like wolves care much until coordi wagon gets going, so that's villa points for gus and crossnerd, tho not clearing
3 hours before night the wagons were luck5/shorty4/gus3 with every person on those 3 wagons other than sixfour being clear or being the last 3 names on my cleared list above
2 hours before night crossnerd wagon starts with atak/aaron/luck!V! and kruze joins luck!V! wagon
if cross is wolf, now wolves start sweating a little?
this is what happens:
luckbox!V! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V!
sixfour - from gus to shorty!V!
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd - gus
river - luckbox!V!
cross goes gus to separate herself from the top 3 wagons
sixfour moves to shorty to separate top 2 wagons
river goes to luckbox to separate top 2 wagons
so sixfour and river look worse if cross is wolf
none of the rest of the unknown players vote the rest of the day except felix saving coordi to vote out shorty
so really no wolf activity the last few hours...makes me think coordi was the only wolf wagon that got started as CFD at the end by shorty
if there was another, maybe crossnerd and that looks worse for sixfour/river but that's thin
i'd think wolves were pretty afk during the d2 evening
4 hours until night it is
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 2: kukra!V!, shorty!V! <--all villa
nich!V! - gus
kukra!V! - from gus to luckbox!V!
3 hours until night it is
luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron, kukra!V!
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 3: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour
at this point it's 2 main v/v wagons with wolf gus behind or 3 v/v/v wagons...wolves don't care much and aren't on shorty; could be 0-2 on luck and 0-1 on gus
crackedquads!W! - shorty!V! <--- first wolf joins shorty wagon
kruze - youknowwho
aaron - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd
coordi!W! - gus to give him 3 votes next to 5/4 v/v wagons; villa points for gus
kruz - from youknowwho to luckbox!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd
atak - crossnerd
2 hours until night it is
shorty!V! 5: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour, coordi!W!
crossnerd 3: aaron, luckbox!V!, atak
so now 4 wagons: v/v at top and then ?/? gus/cross at bottom; a wolf on gus and 2 unknowns on crossnerd
luckbox!V! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V!
sixfour - from gus to shorty!V!
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd - gus
river - luckbox!V!
1 hour until night it is
luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, luckbox!V!, river <- 3 villa, 3 unknown
shorty!V! 6: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
crossnerd 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknown
shorty!V! - from gus to coord!W!
river - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to jonnyd
30 minutes until night it is
shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 3: nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd <- 1 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
crossnerd 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknowns
coordi!W! 2: felix, shorty!V! <- 1 villa, 1 unknown
coordi!W! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V! <- trying to get 2 strong wagons at 7/5 vs 7/4 to slow his wagon
aaron - coordi!W! <- villa points
mrsjonnyd!V! - from aaron to coordi!W!
gus - luckbox!V! <- similar to coordi trying to strenghten lead wagon before coordi gets too much traction
bigger!V! - gus
mrsjonnyd!V! - from coordi!W! to sixfour
bigger!V! - from gus to coordi!W!
18 minutes until night it is
shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 3 unknown
coordi!W! 4: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V! <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 2: nich!V!, crossnerd
mrsjonnyd!V! - from sixfour to coordi!W!
12 minute count same as above but
coordi!W! 5: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V! <- 3 villa, 2 unknown
nich!V! - gus to coordi!W!
jonnyd - luckbox!V! to coordi!W! <- villa points for tying coordi when he coulda stayed away with 10 mins left
7 minutes until night it is
shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
coordi!W! 7: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd <- 4 villa, 3 unknown
luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
a bunch of confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during the next few mins
river posted "how is shortline cleared if coordi flips wolf?"
4 minutes until night no change in vote count
more confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during next few mins
jonny posted saying shorty better be confident
felix posted asking tokyo if wolf shorty = villa coordi and vice versa
jonny posted that he doesn't think the roles are as connected as their fates are <- more villa points
2 minutes until night no change in vote count
felix - from coordi!W! to shorty!V! <- felix was first on coordi early on and then jumps off now; wolfy but ballsy to save a wolf, but coordi still had power at that point
shorty!V! - from coordi!W! to shorty!V!
coordi!W! - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from jonnyd to coordi!W!
still a lot of unknown roles in the above, but the picture is getting clearer and this can help over the next few days as we get more roles
aaron and jonny look pretty good based on when they jumped on coordi; wolves didn't need to do that and making him a top 3 wagon makes him a "must resolve" player along with vig target, so not worth it
need 9 clear players:
books
dmk seer peeked
kukra seer peeked (also claimed jailed books which fits with writeup)
village roleblocker once they claim
-------
nich
aaron
jonny
that's 7
looking at the wagons, it doesn't seem like wolves care much until coordi wagon gets going, so that's villa points for gus and crossnerd, tho not clearing
3 hours before night the wagons were luck5/shorty4/gus3 with every person on those 3 wagons other than sixfour being clear or being the last 3 names on my cleared list above
2 hours before night crossnerd wagon starts with atak/aaron/luck!V! and kruze joins luck!V! wagon
if cross is wolf, now wolves start sweating a little?
this is what happens:
luckbox!V! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V!
sixfour - from gus to shorty!V!
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd - gus
river - luckbox!V!
cross goes gus to separate herself from the top 3 wagons
sixfour moves to shorty to separate top 2 wagons
river goes to luckbox to separate top 2 wagons
so sixfour and river look worse if cross is wolf
none of the rest of the unknown players vote the rest of the day except felix saving coordi to vote out shorty
so really no wolf activity the last few hours...makes me think coordi was the only wolf wagon that got started as CFD at the end by shorty
if there was another, maybe crossnerd and that looks worse for sixfour/river but that's thin
i'd think wolves were pretty afk during the d2 evening
06-27-2020
, 05:22 PM
tl;dr - cracked goes on a spurt of analyzing/pushing exclusively villagers. soft defends atak during this stretch.
this could shed light onto the pre-rand game post i quoted earlier by crackedquads as to if he spewed YKW or Riverfish, but there is also a chance he was mindful to keep things balanced. it does seem like he was spending a lot of time pushing villagers. it's more unclear if he was strategically defending wolves as a corollary.
^since it isnt obvious without embedded quotes, this post is about atakdog, cracked agrees with kukraprout's sentiment that atak hasnt done much and then hedges a bit.
this could shed light onto the pre-rand game post i quoted earlier by crackedquads as to if he spewed YKW or Riverfish, but there is also a chance he was mindful to keep things balanced. it does seem like he was spending a lot of time pushing villagers. it's more unclear if he was strategically defending wolves as a corollary.
Quote:
Looking at the top wagon options and rereading them:
I feel like Jdalla’s tone comes off a little suspect but he does seem to be trying to make reads, compile lists of those reads, and prod players for more information. This looks fairly villagery to me. Also like jdalla trying to break down shortline posts. He did also claim he may not be able to contribute much but he’s instead been around a bit. Though that could just be in response to trying to save himself from being top wagon.
AAO initial tone feels consistent from his villager d1 game in lockgame, though then gets early heat probably from suspect response of “you got me” to being called a wolf by dustin. Cheekily claims to have a good claim ready too.
AAO then draws attention to luckbox reads list including a player not in the game (siegmund) but notably has no other comment on his reads list. Though does go on to vote for luckbox for having similar original game posts. Seems like if he thinks luckbox is a wolf he’d want to prod that wolf’s read list a bit.
Goes back and forth with luckbox and birdman and hasn’t posted since 10am. Called out luckbox for getting heat and disappearing then aao does the same thing.
Shortline opens with tokyo vote for no reason, then changes vote to me just for disliking my intro about birdman talking about mechanics which feels very forced. Shortline doesnt respond to me in #132 when I say it’s weird that he doesn’t go after birdman for also talking about neutral mechanics which prompted me to talk about it the subject in the first place.
Says he can confirm “dmk, dustin, sixfour, riverfish, bigger, kukra, and apparently shortline” are not wolves quoting a birdman post but Birdman says he was just quoting all the people on the aao wagon, of which shortline is one. Shortline doesn’t respond to this either.
Again claims aao/me would be good wagons without any reasoning. I find it hard to believe that he genuinely thinks I'm one of the best options for responding to a "neutral" topic that was going on when I entered the thread.
Of these guys I think wolfiness goes shortline >> aao >>>> jdalla
I feel like Jdalla’s tone comes off a little suspect but he does seem to be trying to make reads, compile lists of those reads, and prod players for more information. This looks fairly villagery to me. Also like jdalla trying to break down shortline posts. He did also claim he may not be able to contribute much but he’s instead been around a bit. Though that could just be in response to trying to save himself from being top wagon.
AAO initial tone feels consistent from his villager d1 game in lockgame, though then gets early heat probably from suspect response of “you got me” to being called a wolf by dustin. Cheekily claims to have a good claim ready too.
AAO then draws attention to luckbox reads list including a player not in the game (siegmund) but notably has no other comment on his reads list. Though does go on to vote for luckbox for having similar original game posts. Seems like if he thinks luckbox is a wolf he’d want to prod that wolf’s read list a bit.
Goes back and forth with luckbox and birdman and hasn’t posted since 10am. Called out luckbox for getting heat and disappearing then aao does the same thing.
Shortline opens with tokyo vote for no reason, then changes vote to me just for disliking my intro about birdman talking about mechanics which feels very forced. Shortline doesnt respond to me in #132 when I say it’s weird that he doesn’t go after birdman for also talking about neutral mechanics which prompted me to talk about it the subject in the first place.
Says he can confirm “dmk, dustin, sixfour, riverfish, bigger, kukra, and apparently shortline” are not wolves quoting a birdman post but Birdman says he was just quoting all the people on the aao wagon, of which shortline is one. Shortline doesn’t respond to this either.
Again claims aao/me would be good wagons without any reasoning. I find it hard to believe that he genuinely thinks I'm one of the best options for responding to a "neutral" topic that was going on when I entered the thread.
Of these guys I think wolfiness goes shortline >> aao >>>> jdalla
06-27-2020
, 05:26 PM
cleared:
books
dmk
kukra
roleblocker
---
nich
aaron
jonny
that leaves 5 wolves in:
atak
crossnerd
felix
gus
kruze
river
sixfour
youknowwho
river and sixfour joined shorty wagon
kruze joined luckbox wagon then went away
felix was first on coordi then switched to shorty to save coordi
crossnerd and gus were smallish wagons with gus ending up on luckbox and crossnerd on gus
atak and youknowwho were on random wagons and didn't do anything
1-2 of river/sixfour
1-2 of kruze/atak/youknowwho
felix looks bad
crossnerd looks worse than gus for wagons
hopefully roleblocker is one of the people in the second list to narrow it down pretty good for us
books
dmk
kukra
roleblocker
---
nich
aaron
jonny
that leaves 5 wolves in:
atak
crossnerd
felix
gus
kruze
river
sixfour
youknowwho
river and sixfour joined shorty wagon
kruze joined luckbox wagon then went away
felix was first on coordi then switched to shorty to save coordi
crossnerd and gus were smallish wagons with gus ending up on luckbox and crossnerd on gus
atak and youknowwho were on random wagons and didn't do anything
1-2 of river/sixfour
1-2 of kruze/atak/youknowwho
felix looks bad
crossnerd looks worse than gus for wagons
hopefully roleblocker is one of the people in the second list to narrow it down pretty good for us
06-27-2020
, 05:27 PM
i'll do dance party if it doesn't require me to be around much tonight; about to spend time with kids
06-27-2020
, 05:30 PM
do i have to post in for the party or something
nich btw great analysis.. idk if you saw yesterday but i did come around to what you said about the RB as well.. i was mistaken
im waiting to post a reads list but i do have you as one of my villager reads, i think youve made some good votes and think your approach has been villagery
nich btw great analysis.. idk if you saw yesterday but i did come around to what you said about the RB as well.. i was mistaken
im waiting to post a reads list but i do have you as one of my villager reads, i think youve made some good votes and think your approach has been villagery
06-27-2020
, 05:35 PM
hi guys
I did the riverfish read I promised. Spoiler alert: he is now my favorite wolf candidate. Posts incoming.
I did the riverfish read I promised. Spoiler alert: he is now my favorite wolf candidate. Posts incoming.
06-27-2020
, 05:35 PM
yeah, party hard?
how tf does that event work?
how tf does that event work?
06-27-2020
, 05:36 PM
Riverfish is a wolf
Part 1: Riverfish and shortline
Let’s go back to two days ago. JDalla announced that Shortline survived his shot. The situation is confusing: there was a contest with a variety of powers to win the day before, and people are trying to figure out the possible scenarios and what it means for shortline. Villagers are lost. Many agree it looks back for shortline. Riverfish sees clearly. He considers only two possibility and nails the correct one:
IT SAYS NOTHING ABOUT SHORTLINE’S ROLE, he says. He still going to hop on his wagon:
Why does he vote shortline then?
Book’s theory is that wolves are fighting the shortline wagon. So riverfish’s vote is based on wagonomics and the assumption that coordi is a wolf. But when aaronk suggests he joins the coordi wagon, riverfish refuses. What would make him change his mind?
riverfish just blindly follows Books. Reminder: books started the shortline wagon based on the assumption that the JDalla miss makes shortline a wolf, and river doesnt believe in that.
Part 1: Riverfish and shortline
Let’s go back to two days ago. JDalla announced that Shortline survived his shot. The situation is confusing: there was a contest with a variety of powers to win the day before, and people are trying to figure out the possible scenarios and what it means for shortline. Villagers are lost. Many agree it looks back for shortline. Riverfish sees clearly. He considers only two possibility and nails the correct one:
Quote:
Given how he posted itt yesterday, there's a reasonable chance the wolves roleblocked him.
If that's the case, it says nothing about your role.
In general I think this is more likely roleblocked villa than wolf FPS on his part.
Stop making it about you now and go find some wolves.
Also, I voted Luckbox and I don't think the tracker picked it up.
If that's the case, it says nothing about your role.
In general I think this is more likely roleblocked villa than wolf FPS on his part.
Stop making it about you now and go find some wolves.
Also, I voted Luckbox and I don't think the tracker picked it up.
Why does he vote shortline then?
riverfish just blindly follows Books. Reminder: books started the shortline wagon based on the assumption that the JDalla miss makes shortline a wolf, and river doesnt believe in that.
06-27-2020
, 05:38 PM
Riverfish is a wolf
Part 1 bis: Riverfish and shortline, the day after
Riverfish still blame Books for making him vote shortline.
He also revisits JDalla theories:
He nails it again. But that’s exactly what he said the day before! See the first quote in my previous post. He’s acting like he bought the “jdalla misses->shortline is probably a wolf theory” even though he said clearly “it says nothing about your role”. And he had given completely different reasons for his vote.
Part 1 bis: Riverfish and shortline, the day after
Riverfish still blame Books for making him vote shortline.
Quote:
also on reflection - Jdalla's argument that wolves wouldn't rb him if shorty was a vill b/c he (jdalla) had shorty as the wolfiest player was bad. THat's too FPS-y. Wolf-team saw Jdalla (villager) having high probability of power role and decided to block him rather than let him use it.
I outleveled myself so many times. ****.
I outleveled myself so many times. ****.
06-27-2020
, 05:39 PM
Riverfish is a wolf
Part 2: Riverfish and Coordi
In part 1 we saw that riverfish said coordi was a wolf and still voted shortline over coordi. To riverfish’s credit, he did push coordi the next day. Though this post is true and perfectly applies to himself:
Then when coordi claims his reaction is awkward. He leaves his options open:
When coordi claims he makes an akward post leaving his options open:
If you read riverfish you will see a lot of these “he could be a villager he could be a wolf” posts that go nowhere.
Part 2: Riverfish and Coordi
In part 1 we saw that riverfish said coordi was a wolf and still voted shortline over coordi. To riverfish’s credit, he did push coordi the next day. Though this post is true and perfectly applies to himself:
When coordi claims he makes an akward post leaving his options open:
Quote:
A coordi peak of Birdman is so bad it almost can't be a wolf fake claiming (presumably the other wolves would help with what peaks to make).
But I clearly out-leveled myself by following JDalla's logic on why shorty was high probability wolf, so maybe I need to assume lower quality wolf play.
But I clearly out-leveled myself by following JDalla's logic on why shorty was high probability wolf, so maybe I need to assume lower quality wolf play.
06-27-2020
, 05:39 PM
Quote:
Out of this bunch, you are the likeliest to me. I have shorty as a villa, traz as villagery, and tbh dmk hasn't stood out when reading the thread, which is interesting now that I think about it, but in any case I do not have a read on him.
I think your posts and blinders on aao are quite villagery - but from what I remember from the past and also from what I've seen in the lockthread - that is very far away from meaning that you cannot be a wolf...
I think your posts and blinders on aao are quite villagery - but from what I remember from the past and also from what I've seen in the lockthread - that is very far away from meaning that you cannot be a wolf...
it shows thought, he is reading the thread (which given the gamestate at eod1 with the 5-6 vote aao wagon and a bunch of 1-2 vote wagons) wolves did not seem to be very active/and certainly wouldnt be
i also just dont think that given there was suspicion in the air wrt shorty (and to a lesser extent traz/dmk) that a wolf would reply to this post and pass up the opportunity to throw shade on at least one of them.
not clearing obviously but villa points for YKW imo
Also-- wading through the crossnerd barrage of LC spam about 2 hours before EOD1.. she does come in with some enthusiasm (villagery for her im guessing? but maybe not) but then gets ignored initially and sort of flounders after that... no real interest in solving the game, makes a few comments on a few peoples roles. i think in a vacuum her d1 could have been role neutral but given her d2/d3 performance its hard not to view it as wolfy
06-27-2020
, 05:41 PM
Riverfish is a wolf
Part 3: Riverfish and Kukraprout
This part is rehash of my posts from earlier today. Riverfish started the day by making a big show of not finding biggerboat’s seer hints. It was a pretty transparent “a wolf would know where the peeks are and I dont so I’m a villager” play, but whatever. That’s not where I’m getting at here.
This is what got my senses tingling:
He agrees the seer hints are good but hadnt seen them. WEIRD.
When I ask him about it he says he got confused:
Note that riverfish had started soft-pushing me the day before. Here he instantly believes my jailkeep claim to be legit and clearing. I dont even believe it clears me. I dont know if my jailkeep did anything at all to save books. But riverfish knows:
In a game with one serial killer, two vigilantes with random misses, and a wolf JOAT, he’s perfectly aware of which shots missed and when. When I say “oh I jailed books so maybe I saved him” he instantly knows I did. Two possibilities: he’s a villager who went “let me consider every kill going back to day 1 and vig and roleblock probabilities… done. Kukraprout is clear. No need to share my thought process”. Or he is a wolf.
Part 3: Riverfish and Kukraprout
This part is rehash of my posts from earlier today. Riverfish started the day by making a big show of not finding biggerboat’s seer hints. It was a pretty transparent “a wolf would know where the peeks are and I dont so I’m a villager” play, but whatever. That’s not where I’m getting at here.
This is what got my senses tingling:
Quote:
[quoting YKW who was saying he agreed with the bigger hints I posted]
I agree. I've pulled Kukra off my wolf list for now.
[quoting Felix]
a) please post both
b) please help me see where dmk and kukra villa are bigger's peeks. They make a lot more sense as peeks than what I saw - but I didn't see it.
I agree. I've pulled Kukra off my wolf list for now.
[quoting Felix]
a) please post both
b) please help me see where dmk and kukra villa are bigger's peeks. They make a lot more sense as peeks than what I saw - but I didn't see it.
When I ask him about it he says he got confused:
Quote:
Wolves have 2 swings. 1 was clearly a seerhunt. Other was likely at Books as the only cleared villager. Wolf vig likely missed D1 (3 kills total with a vig, SK, and 2 wolf kills). What's more likely - you jailed books to protect or our roleblocker found and blocked the vig wolf?
Also why would you randomly claim jailor early in the day as a wolf? Seems a little FPS-y on the surface.
Also why would you randomly claim jailor early in the day as a wolf? Seems a little FPS-y on the surface.
06-27-2020
, 05:41 PM
Riverfish is a wolf
Summary
Important points I noted reading riverfish :
- He several instances of TMI
- He voted shortline over his wolf read coordi because of a theory he didnt even believe
- He has a ton of indecisive read posts. Also he tends to call LOTS of people wolfy and barely clears anyone.
Summary
Important points I noted reading riverfish :
- He several instances of TMI
- He voted shortline over his wolf read coordi because of a theory he didnt even believe
- He has a ton of indecisive read posts. Also he tends to call LOTS of people wolfy and barely clears anyone.
06-27-2020
, 05:42 PM
If riverfish is a wolf I highly suspect Felix is one too. They had weird seemingly hostile exchanges that dont go anywhere, which remind me of some riverfish had with crackedquads and Felix had with coordi. And also because of this:
Quote:
06-27-2020
, 05:47 PM
kukra i had a few posts bookmarked to bring up later but ill just quote them now and i agree..
river has made a lot of posts that might be logically sound and prescient, but he spends a lot of time 'well actually'ing and 'dont forget guys'ing the thread in an effort to discredit villagery actions... just too many posts with that shade towards a pro-wolf agenda in what he spends time pointing out.
he also has not had many (any?) strong reads or convictions, or at the very least not any that have been pro-villa.
we had a streak of 8 or 9 straight villagers dying and riverfish is like 'hey guys lets not get ahead of ourselves and clear anyone too lightly'.. like what? just not a villagery thought process
he also has not had many (any?) strong reads or convictions, or at the very least not any that have been pro-villa.
we had a streak of 8 or 9 straight villagers dying and riverfish is like 'hey guys lets not get ahead of ourselves and clear anyone too lightly'.. like what? just not a villagery thought process
06-27-2020
, 05:52 PM
Day 4: Automated Votals from #2723 to #2749
gusmahler (1): sixfour (2)
Felix the Cat (1): gusmahler (8)
Crossnerd (1): KruZe (5)
UNVOTE (1): dmk (18)
Not voting (11): aaronk56 (6), atakdog (0), Crossnerd (0), Felix the Cat (17), jonnyd (26), Kukraprout (22), Nicholasp27 (5), riverfish1 (12), wdcbooks (6), YouKnowWho (6), UNVOTE (0)
Phase ends in 27h7m. Hammer at 8.
Vote history:
<Beta v0.1.8>
gusmahler (1): sixfour (2)
Felix the Cat (1): gusmahler (8)
Crossnerd (1): KruZe (5)
UNVOTE (1): dmk (18)
Not voting (11): aaronk56 (6), atakdog (0), Crossnerd (0), Felix the Cat (17), jonnyd (26), Kukraprout (22), Nicholasp27 (5), riverfish1 (12), wdcbooks (6), YouKnowWho (6), UNVOTE (0)
Phase ends in 27h7m. Hammer at 8.
Vote history:
<Beta v0.1.8>
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