DANCE, DANCE, DANCE, DANCE!!!!

the negativity... it's making me... ow that hurts. my skin is expanding WHY STOP THIS HURTS AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAHRRRGGGGGGG

*FEROCIOUS RAWWWWWRRRRRRRR*

coordi was wolf watcher/tracker or vanilla wolf at this point
cracked quads was wolf backup and tokyo took him out for us
bigger was seer and likely joat vig kill since writeup different than others
jail was in play in writeup so wolves must have tried to eat books but he was saved by jail

that also means wolf vig lost flip and didn't get their kill last night, which means they will get a kill tonight

14 players left, 5 are wolves so 9 v 5

if we mis-shun it'll be 8v5 then after night happens 6v5; if we get a wolf, then it'll be 9v4 then 7v4 after night

then wolf vig has no more kills after n4
wolf seer only deals with sk so basically vanilla
joat likely used vig kill so basically vanilla bc we don't care about true peek, track or angel since no village powers left
wolf roleblocker can't block when we have no villa night actions left
wolf watcher and wolf backup dead
1 vanilla wolf left

so it's basically a vanilla game after tonight's vig kill with us being 1 mistake from must-shun whether they vig or not


need 9 clear players:
books
dmk seer peeked
kukra seer peeked (also claimed jailed books which fits with writeup)
village roleblocker once they claim


so only 4 so we will need to find all the rest of the wolves


9v5 now, we shun a wolf
they eat and vig books and dmk
7v4 we shun a wolf
they eat kukra
6v3 we shun a wolf
they eat village roleblocker
5v2 we shun a villager
they eat a villager
3v2 we shun a wolf
they eat a villager
2v1 final day

man, a lot of the first half of day1b is just all villagers talking. i know this isn't a new revelation or one that i hold myself, but i do agree that there is a chance that many of the remaining wolves are low volume.

and so it follows that there aren't many posts in that stretch that i find worth bringing up for discussion, but i did find one where from crackedquads that id like some other eyes on this post.. the selection of people is the wolf team from the "first" game before the re-rand (minus shorty who hadnt posted apparently) but him putting them into baskets at the end / with some explanation above but there's probably info to be gleamed from this post.

*coloring at the bottom and * notes are mine

so the two unknowns in the list are Riverfish and YKW, one who cracked has as a wolf and one who he has as a villager

since ive been rereading there have been a few posts by riverfish that i dont like. there is a chance that he has just been a villager who is wrong (can't say i or many others dont fit this category either) but i think he is both forcing reads (i dont agree with many of the conclusions he is coming to or the way he is getting there) and often hedging those reads, which is what i find most wolfy about him

as far as youknowwho goes, i think he has made some odd posts and some that i'd almost classify as too wolfy to be a wolf.. i think his day yesterday was good. i dont think i would clear him but i lean villager. some of that read is based on who has been pushing him. as i reread he is someone whose interactions i have been trying to read into more than others.

if this is real then sorry thread

updated prior coordi wagon based on new info:

shortline!V! - 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, Tokyo!SK!, books!V!, crackedquads!W!, sixfour, riverfish
coordi - 7: Felix, shortline!V!, aaron, biggerboat!V!, mrsd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd
luckbox!V! - 5: Sun!V!, Kukra!V!, Kruze, coordi!W!, gus

so 5 mins until night and it's tied with luckbox!V! just behind

shorty is villa with 4 villa/sk, 1 wolf and 2 unknown
coordi is unknown with 4 villa and 3 unknowns
luckbox is villa with 2 villa, 1 wolf and 2 unknowns

we'd assume most of the wolves will be on shorty/luck

4 people were on random 1-person votes: atak, crossnerd, luckbox!V!, youknowwho

i'd assume 1 on random, 0-1 on coordi, coordi, 2-3 on shorty, 1-2 on luckbox

felix moves from coordi to shorty for no rand
shorty votes himself

now it's 9-5-5

coordi goes shorty from luckbox to make it 10-5-4
luckbox goes from random jonny vote to coordi to make it 10-6-4


sixfour, river contains 1-2 wolves
kruze, gus contains 1-2
atak, crossnerd, youknowwho contains 0-1
felix, aaron, bigger, jonny contains 0-1


so sixfour/river wagons seems pretty good; unlikely only 1 wolf on shorty on d2

The long drive is over. Wu Tang and Nas were hits.

I feel like if we just go atak, crossnerd and Kruze we should be three for three. Then riverfish and sixfour are high probability. Jonny and Gus used to be on the village bubble, but Jonny has bee suuuuper villagery recently which has to be frustrating for the wolves.

Did you mute atak again?

NOT MUCH TIME LEFT TO PARTY!!!

going back to d2 to see how wagons formed:

4 hours until night it is

luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 2: kukra!V!, shorty!V! <--all villa

nich!V! - gus
kukra!V! - from gus to luckbox!V!

3 hours until night it is

luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, jonny, luckbox!V!, aaron, kukra!V!
shorty!V! 4: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V! <--- all villager wagon on shorty before wolves pile on
gus 3: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour


at this point it's 2 main v/v wagons with wolf gus behind or 3 v/v/v wagons...wolves don't care much and aren't on shorty; could be 0-2 on luck and 0-1 on gus


crackedquads!W! - shorty!V! <--- first wolf joins shorty wagon
kruze - youknowwho
aaron - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd
coordi!W! - gus to give him 3 votes next to 5/4 v/v wagons; villa points for gus
kruz - from youknowwho to luckbox!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to crossnerd
atak - crossnerd

2 hours until night it is

shorty!V! 5: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, sixfour, coordi!W!
crossnerd 3: aaron, luckbox!V!, atak

so now 4 wagons: v/v at top and then ?/? gus/cross at bottom; a wolf on gus and 2 unknowns on crossnerd

luckbox!V! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V!
sixfour - from gus to shorty!V!
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd - gus
river - luckbox!V!


1 hour until night it is

luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, luckbox!V!, river <- 3 villa, 3 unknown
shorty!V! 6: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
gus 4: shorty!V!, nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
crossnerd 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknown

shorty!V! - from gus to coord!W!
river - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from luckbox!V! to jonnyd


30 minutes until night it is

shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 4: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 3: nich!V!, coordi!W!, crossnerd <- 1 villa, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
crossnerd 2: aaron, atak <- 2 unknowns
coordi!W! 2: felix, shorty!V! <- 1 villa, 1 unknown

coordi!W! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V! <- trying to get 2 strong wagons at 7/5 vs 7/4 to slow his wagon
aaron - coordi!W! <- villa points
mrsjonnyd!V! - from aaron to coordi!W!
gus - luckbox!V! <- similar to coordi trying to strenghten lead wagon before coordi gets too much traction
bigger!V! - gus
mrsjonnyd!V! - from coordi!W! to sixfour
bigger!V! - from gus to coordi!W!


18 minutes until night it is

shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
luckbox!V! 6: sun!V!, jonny, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 3 unknown
coordi!W! 4: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V! <- 2 villa, 2 unknown
gus 2: nich!V!, crossnerd

mrsjonnyd!V! - from sixfour to coordi!W!

12 minute count same as above but

coordi!W! 5: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V! <- 3 villa, 2 unknown

nich!V! - gus to coordi!W!
jonnyd - luckbox!V! to coordi!W! <- villa points for tying coordi when he coulda stayed away with 10 mins left


7 minutes until night it is

shorty!V! 7: jdalla!V!, dmk!V!, tokyo!V!, books!V!, cq!W!, sixfour, river <- 4 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown
coordi!W! 7: felix, shorty!V!, aaron, bigger!V!, mrsjonnyd!V!, nich!V!, jonnyd <- 4 villa, 3 unknown
luckbox!V! 5: sun!V!, kukra!V!, kruze, coordi!W!, gus <- 2 villa, 1 wolf, 2 unknown

a bunch of confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during the next few mins

river posted "how is shortline cleared if coordi flips wolf?"

4 minutes until night no change in vote count

more confirmed villagers (and coordi wolf) during next few mins

jonny posted saying shorty better be confident
felix posted asking tokyo if wolf shorty = villa coordi and vice versa
jonny posted that he doesn't think the roles are as connected as their fates are <- more villa points

2 minutes until night no change in vote count

felix - from coordi!W! to shorty!V! <- felix was first on coordi early on and then jumps off now; wolfy but ballsy to save a wolf, but coordi still had power at that point

shorty!V! - from coordi!W! to shorty!V!
coordi!W! - from luckbox!V! to shorty!V!
luckbox!V! - from jonnyd to coordi!W!



still a lot of unknown roles in the above, but the picture is getting clearer and this can help over the next few days as we get more roles

aaron and jonny look pretty good based on when they jumped on coordi; wolves didn't need to do that and making him a top 3 wagon makes him a "must resolve" player along with vig target, so not worth it


need 9 clear players:
books
dmk seer peeked
kukra seer peeked (also claimed jailed books which fits with writeup)
village roleblocker once they claim
-------
nich
aaron
jonny

that's 7



looking at the wagons, it doesn't seem like wolves care much until coordi wagon gets going, so that's villa points for gus and crossnerd, tho not clearing

3 hours before night the wagons were luck5/shorty4/gus3 with every person on those 3 wagons other than sixfour being clear or being the last 3 names on my cleared list above

2 hours before night crossnerd wagon starts with atak/aaron/luck!V! and kruze joins luck!V! wagon

if cross is wolf, now wolves start sweating a little?

this is what happens:
luckbox!V! - from crossnerd to luckbox!V!
sixfour - from gus to shorty!V!
mrsjonnyd!V! - aaronk
crossnerd - gus
river - luckbox!V!

cross goes gus to separate herself from the top 3 wagons
sixfour moves to shorty to separate top 2 wagons
river goes to luckbox to separate top 2 wagons

so sixfour and river look worse if cross is wolf

none of the rest of the unknown players vote the rest of the day except felix saving coordi to vote out shorty


so really no wolf activity the last few hours...makes me think coordi was the only wolf wagon that got started as CFD at the end by shorty

if there was another, maybe crossnerd and that looks worse for sixfour/river but that's thin

i'd think wolves were pretty afk during the d2 evening

tl;dr - cracked goes on a spurt of analyzing/pushing exclusively villagers. soft defends atak during this stretch.

this could shed light onto the pre-rand game post i quoted earlier by crackedquads as to if he spewed YKW or Riverfish, but there is also a chance he was mindful to keep things balanced. it does seem like he was spending a lot of time pushing villagers. it's more unclear if he was strategically defending wolves as a corollary.


^since it isnt obvious without embedded quotes, this post is about atakdog, cracked agrees with kukraprout's sentiment that atak hasnt done much and then hedges a bit.

cleared:
books
dmk
kukra
roleblocker
---
nich
aaron
jonny



that leaves 5 wolves in:
atak
crossnerd
felix
gus
kruze
river
sixfour
youknowwho



river and sixfour joined shorty wagon
kruze joined luckbox wagon then went away
felix was first on coordi then switched to shorty to save coordi
crossnerd and gus were smallish wagons with gus ending up on luckbox and crossnerd on gus
atak and youknowwho were on random wagons and didn't do anything

1-2 of river/sixfour
1-2 of kruze/atak/youknowwho
felix looks bad
crossnerd looks worse than gus for wagons

hopefully roleblocker is one of the people in the second list to narrow it down pretty good for us

i'll do dance party if it doesn't require me to be around much tonight; about to spend time with kids

do i have to post in for the party or something

nich btw great analysis.. idk if you saw yesterday but i did come around to what you said about the RB as well.. i was mistaken

im waiting to post a reads list but i do have you as one of my villager reads, i think youve made some good votes and think your approach has been villagery

hi guys

I did the riverfish read I promised. Spoiler alert: he is now my favorite wolf candidate. Posts incoming.

yeah, party hard?

how tf does that event work?

Riverfish is a wolf
Part 1: Riverfish and shortline

Let’s go back to two days ago. JDalla announced that Shortline survived his shot. The situation is confusing: there was a contest with a variety of powers to win the day before, and people are trying to figure out the possible scenarios and what it means for shortline. Villagers are lost. Many agree it looks back for shortline. Riverfish sees clearly. He considers only two possibility and nails the correct one:
IT SAYS NOTHING ABOUT SHORTLINE’S ROLE, he says. He still going to hop on his wagon:
Why does he vote shortline then?
Book’s theory is that wolves are fighting the shortline wagon. So riverfish’s vote is based on wagonomics and the assumption that coordi is a wolf. But when aaronk suggests he joins the coordi wagon, riverfish refuses. What would make him change his mind?
riverfish just blindly follows Books. Reminder: books started the shortline wagon based on the assumption that the JDalla miss makes shortline a wolf, and river doesnt believe in that.

Riverfish is a wolf
Part 1 bis: Riverfish and shortline, the day after

Riverfish still blame Books for making him vote shortline.
He also revisits JDalla theories:
He nails it again. But that’s exactly what he said the day before! See the first quote in my previous post. He’s acting like he bought the “jdalla misses->shortline is probably a wolf theory” even though he said clearly “it says nothing about your role”. And he had given completely different reasons for his vote.

Riverfish is a wolf
Part 2: Riverfish and Coordi

In part 1 we saw that riverfish said coordi was a wolf and still voted shortline over coordi. To riverfish’s credit, he did push coordi the next day. Though this post is true and perfectly applies to himself:
Then when coordi claims his reaction is awkward. He leaves his options open:
When coordi claims he makes an akward post leaving his options open:
If you read riverfish you will see a lot of these “he could be a villager he could be a wolf” posts that go nowhere.

this is what i mean when YKW has made villagery posts and i think it's worth sharing

it shows thought, he is reading the thread (which given the gamestate at eod1 with the 5-6 vote aao wagon and a bunch of 1-2 vote wagons) wolves did not seem to be very active/and certainly wouldnt be

i also just dont think that given there was suspicion in the air wrt shorty (and to a lesser extent traz/dmk) that a wolf would reply to this post and pass up the opportunity to throw shade on at least one of them.

not clearing obviously but villa points for YKW imo

Also-- wading through the crossnerd barrage of LC spam about 2 hours before EOD1.. she does come in with some enthusiasm (villagery for her im guessing? but maybe not) but then gets ignored initially and sort of flounders after that... no real interest in solving the game, makes a few comments on a few peoples roles. i think in a vacuum her d1 could have been role neutral but given her d2/d3 performance its hard not to view it as wolfy

Riverfish is a wolf
Part 3: Riverfish and Kukraprout

This part is rehash of my posts from earlier today. Riverfish started the day by making a big show of not finding biggerboat’s seer hints. It was a pretty transparent “a wolf would know where the peeks are and I dont so I’m a villager” play, but whatever. That’s not where I’m getting at here.

This is what got my senses tingling:
He agrees the seer hints are good but hadnt seen them. WEIRD.
When I ask him about it he says he got confused:
Note that riverfish had started soft-pushing me the day before. Here he instantly believes my jailkeep claim to be legit and clearing. I dont even believe it clears me. I dont know if my jailkeep did anything at all to save books. But riverfish knows:
In a game with one serial killer, two vigilantes with random misses, and a wolf JOAT, he’s perfectly aware of which shots missed and when. When I say “oh I jailed books so maybe I saved him” he instantly knows I did. Two possibilities: he’s a villager who went “let me consider every kill going back to day 1 and vig and roleblock probabilities… done. Kukraprout is clear. No need to share my thought process”. Or he is a wolf.

Riverfish is a wolf
Summary

Important points I noted reading riverfish :
- He several instances of TMI
- He voted shortline over his wolf read coordi because of a theory he didnt even believe
- He has a ton of indecisive read posts. Also he tends to call LOTS of people wolfy and barely clears anyone.

If riverfish is a wolf I highly suspect Felix is one too. They had weird seemingly hostile exchanges that dont go anywhere, which remind me of some riverfish had with crackedquads and Felix had with coordi. And also because of this:

kukra i had a few posts bookmarked to bring up later but ill just quote them now and i agree..

river has made a lot of posts that might be logically sound and prescient, but he spends a lot of time 'well actually'ing and 'dont forget guys'ing the thread in an effort to discredit villagery actions... just too many posts with that shade towards a pro-wolf agenda in what he spends time pointing out.

he also has not had many (any?) strong reads or convictions, or at the very least not any that have been pro-villa.

we had a streak of 8 or 9 straight villagers dying and riverfish is like 'hey guys lets not get ahead of ourselves and clear anyone too lightly'.. like what? just not a villagery thought process

Day 4: Automated Votals from #2723 to #2749

gusmahler (1): sixfour (2)
Felix the Cat (1): gusmahler (8)
Crossnerd (1): KruZe (5)
UNVOTE (1): dmk (18)
Not voting (11): aaronk56 (6), atakdog (0), Crossnerd (0), Felix the Cat (17), jonnyd (26), Kukraprout (22), Nicholasp27 (5), riverfish1 (12), wdcbooks (6), YouKnowWho (6), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 27h7m. Hammer at 8.

Vote history:

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