While I took issue with felix’s post about me and thought it had agenda (which maybe I’m attributing to it instead of just him being mistaken)

This post on the other hand is very misleading and in such a way that feels insidious

I voted coordi d2 and ended the day on him. How the hell am I not on a list of d2 coordi votes

d3 I stated that we didn’t need my vote to maj coordi (as evidenced by what actually happened) and since I have the most time to post in the evenings I had no desire or incentive to maj or make him closer to maj. My (very vocal) objection to coordi was only procedural and specific to lunching inside of the claim.

I only charted d2. d1 might be more interesting now that we know more roles, if anyone's interested in charting or going back and analyzing.

I might be wrong about you though, jonnyd. I'll try to keep an open mind and not tunnel today.

I plan on doing enough work this weekend to help solve the game and help hopefully clear myself. I have no intention of riding purely on the credit of the vote. I do however think as a villager it is important for me to defend myself against what I consider to be flawed or misleading arguments.

That said I will not simply spend all my time repeating those things because there is a lot of work to do and it’ll just clutter the thread. If people want to discuss it more we can and if people bring it up in a different way I will address it but otherwise I’m happy just saying my piece for now and leaving it at that

The vote/time chart is a cool bit of data viz.. idk if I’ve seen it done like that before felix. Well done

I appreciate this.

After being very wrong for much of the game I myself trying to approach things with fresh eyes

Looking at bigger starting day 2 (because he had no n1 peeks).

No posts until page 20, but no content on those posts.

Page 21:

• 2001: Votes me with no explanation. Clearly not a peek. Not only because I know my role, but he never pushed it.
• 2003: Coordi seems fine. Waffley. Likely not a peek.
• 2010: votes coordi
• 2026: "jdalla is probably a villlager". Probably indicates that it's not a peek
• Rest of his posts D2 are fluff.

On to day 3:

This one is worthy of a quote.

No waffling. This is his likely peek.

And the next post:

Again, no waffling. Another likely peek.

Page 22:

He had a fluff post in between. So in the span of 4 posts, he left 3 peeks, even though he only had two.

• 2109: nich "feels" like a villager. likely not a peek
• 2112: 64 is wolfy, but from post analysis. This is clearly a read.
• 2115: felix is wolfy. But again, this is clearly a read.
• 2116: One of crossnerd and kruze is a wolf. Again, clearly a read.
• 2117: Votes coordi
• 2119: ykw is "most likely" a villager. Again, a read.
• 2126: coordi analysis
• 2128: read that jonnyd is villager
• 2129: musing about mrs. jonnyd kill
• 2130: tokyo is probably village
• 2132: he "thinks" atak is a villager.
• 2134: "don't silence me". Message to the village RB?
• A few more posts of analysis.

Then his big read list. Worth a quote.

The first three on the list are himself and the two people he peeked on page 21. But he also lists coordi (his page 22 peek) as a certain wolf.

Also see post 2163. Quotes a short list of wolves that includes dmk and bigger says, "scratch dmk off and I'm with him on the first four". The first four are dmk, coordi, 64, and crackedquads

Page 23:

After some fluff:

• 2223: Kukra says he was peeked village in a spreadsheet. bigger says "that's actually the most convincing thing I've seen." Another seer hint?
• 2229: agrees that gus gets village points.
• 2243: coordi should be the lynch
• More random analysis with no peeks.
• 2300 lists coordi first in a list of wolves.

Page 24: No real analysis at first. More pushing of the coordi wagon. Then coordi claimed seer.

• 2362: Says that coordi is trying to out the seer. Another hint? Probably too convoluted.
• 2391: staying on coordi

Page 25:

• 2406: Kruze has to be resolved
• 2422: asks for sk to kill kruze
• 2444: "never lynch" dmk.
• 2469: completely disagrees with jonnyd wanting to not lynch coordi.

No more posts.

So he left 3 seer peeks even though he only had two.

dmk--villa
kukra--villa
coordi--wolf

The wording "most certainly" is the same for dmk and coordi. So it's possible those are his peeks. And he never left coordi and didn't even want to think about not majority voting coordi. But never leaving coordi may have been because coordi claimed seer while bigger knew that was impossible.

So you suspect a neutral who has already left the game. Nice.

I guess choosing to silence a person who wasn't going to post anyway is a good thing to do.

I can explain away the rest of that section as different perspectives on the game, but I'd like to hear your thoughts about this:

----------

Actually, a better question for you on the topic of villa credit for voting coordi: how much villa credit, if any, should aaronk and nich get?

-----------

The part about d2 being a bus job involved my thinking biggerboat = wolf, but in thinking about it more I think my reasoning relied more on that (or at least biggerboat = unresolved semi-UTR voting at the same time as other unresolved semi-UTRs) than I initially thought after reading the role reveals. So I think I won't put as much weight on that for now.

If we give you your credit and there was no bussing the wolf team is in

riverfish1
KruZe
sixfour
Crossnerd
atakdog
YouKnowWho
gusmahler

assuming I'm not missing anyone.

Of those, sixfour, atakdog, and I guess gusmahler are the most disconnected/least interactive/most difficult to examine. riverfish1 has mentioned Crossnerd and KruZe in ways that make their roles reliant on his. (Specifically, if we think riverfish1 is a wolf we should consider eliminating KruZe today, because riverfish's talk on Crossnerd and KruZe gives KruZe a whole lot of vig/joat equity and Crossnerd none at all.)

Gun to my head in the no-bussing scenario: riverfish1, atakdog, KruZe (vig), Crossnerd (seer/vanilla)... sixfour?

PARTY ON!!!!

why is gus just copying what i said

Day 4: Automated Votals from #2614 to #2662

KruZe (1): gusmahler (4)
gusmahler (1): sixfour (2)
Not voting (13): aaronk56 (1), atakdog (0), Crossnerd (0), dmk (1), Felix the Cat (16), jonnyd (5), KruZe (0), Kukraprout (13), Nicholasp27 (0), riverfish1 (12), wdcbooks (0), YouKnowWho (6), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 33h54m. Hammer at 8.

Vote history:

<Beta v0.1.8>

ok, glad this is a multi-day

i really feel like **** for tunneling shortline now. this game would be so different if we got coordi d2 instead of shorty. bleh

keep in mind that coordi was NOT a powerrole anymore and was an easy wolf-bus target. the competing tracker dude died d1 (bobo?), so coordi turned vanilla. plus, they got the most important powerroles killed d1/n1 that it didn't even matter anymore. the only wolf powerrole that really matters at this point is the vig

also also, keep in mind that the vig has one of their NKs "cancelled" at some pre-determined random night, so its possible that was last night. so our RB shouldn't be claiming, thinking he got the vig blocked or something

IRL stuff: so I've been furloughed for a while, and my sleep schedule has gotten all messed up because COVID has only increased my homebody night owl tendencies. It's 8AM and I'm "up late", not "up early", mostly because I woke up at 2pm yesterday. If anything I say seems incoherent, that's probably why.

I'm back to work on Thursday, so wish me luck getting back to being diurnal.

I think I might try to take a nap now. There's a possibility that groggy Felix mixes up the snooze and dismiss buttons on the alarm and I don't wake up until late in the day.

...actually, groggy Felix just now realized that I don't have to worry about leaving a vote, so yeah. In spirit I vote KruZe, but given yesterday my trust level in us not maj'ing is fairly low, lol. I would also vote riverfish1 if Kukra asked me to. I would have possibly voted atakdog too, but starting a wagon on him while he's silenced again feels unsporting.

A useful activity for someone looking for suggestions might be to reread aaronk56, especially see what you think of his activities in the ~4 hours before night on d1.

shorty was the only one i've been super wrong about so far this game too. ****ing hell

books and kukra, we're gonna have to mind-meld this weekend hard

my initial gut is to go xnerd, but atak never gaining traction this entire game is really bothering me

i really don't like that everyone is coalescing onto the same exact wolf list. it makes it feel too easy, and thats usually bad news

this i can just chalk up to not knowing the current vote counts / assumptions i had made about what they were at the time. i was posting that off the info of the prior vote count luckbox 7/aao 6/jdalla 3.. and was mobile posting and could not keep track of things more than that.

not sure but im guessing youre saying based off vote momentum that aao 6/ luckbox 5/jdalla 5
less likely results in a luckbox shun than jdalla 6/aao 5/luckbox 5 but all i can say is in the moment it didnt feel that way. maybe because aao had more parked voters so it was less likely to fade away? honestly i dont recall specifics right now

i think timing of votes plays a big part, and not just because this serves me well, though it is a big reason why i keep asserting that my vote looks as good as it does. i am planning on rereading eod2 so perhaps it is better to just wait before i make any role conclusions but i will say in theory that sometimes wolves vote another wolf early and then get "stuck" but ill have to go read back before i can say whether i think that is the case this time. (iirc nich's vote looked pretty good).

'Twas an xpost

if dmk is peeked (and i think he is from the posts people are quoting) that clears so much up in the way of tinfoil for me. a clutch as hell peek, bigger. i feel really good about a clear dmk/kukra/books led villa coalition

In a vacuum, your switch on d2 isn't necessarily bad. But look at it in conjunction with coordi's actions. Tokyo summed it up in post 2395. I'm not going to quote it here because the multi quotes will get messed up. But here's the link.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2395

Tokyo's accusation is that coordi was ignoring the votes against himself even though it was 7 to 7. That an innocent (not just a villager, but a seer) would have changed votes to save himself. (Coordi's vote was on luckbox at the time). But coordi knew that one of his wolfbros would change vote to avoid rand. That's why he didn't bother changing his vote. And who changed vote right then? Coincidence, of course it could have been. But wolfbros with 24 hr wolfchat is another possibility.

Then what happened on D3. You come in, say you're preparing something, and night conveniently falls so you don't have to prepare something. Coincidence? Of course that's possible. But wolfbros with 24 hr wolf chat is another possibility. Coordi returning the favor by voting to save you from having to prepare something?

Then you prepare a long post overnight and post it here. Why make an overnight post instead of waiting to see the night actions resolve? Why make it hard to read when all you needed to do was push the preview post button? Didn't see the preview post button? Of course that's a possibility. Wolf trying to make sure people don't read the post? That's another possibility.

And the long post concluded with your second best wolf candidate being . . . the seer.

Do you think to yourself, "hmm, I must have analyzed something in the wrong way. Let me start from scratch. Or at least re-write the conclusion in view of new facts." No, you post it anyway.

Lazy villager? Possible. Wolf wanting to look busy?

Felix the Cat

*****MOD NOTE*****


question:
would backup seer be revealed as backup seer upon death? or just as 'villager'

answer:
backup seer role is announced at death


*****MOD NOTE*****

re-reading roles, at this point wolves are basically 2 vanillas, 1 RB, and the Vig/JOAT both have 1 night-action remaining (assuming joat is using power every day...obv)

we've got a confirmed peacekeeper (books), an unknown RB, and a backup seer that got activated last night. plus me/kukra should be relatively cleared

we're not in the worst shape in the world now. we might face down 2 kills tonight, but after that they just have their standard wolf team night kill

dead #CHARTZ

d1/n1
aao - lynched - village angel 1325
BobOjedafan - nk - village watcher/tracker 1327
traz - nk - vanilla villager 1329
Birdman10687 - nk - vanilla villager 1330

d2/n2
shortline99 - lynched - vanilla villager 2088
mrs. jonnyd - nk - vanilla villager 2090
Luckbox Inc - nk - vanilla villager 2091
Sun Tzu - nk - village vigilante 2091

d3/n3
coordi - lynched - wolf watcher/tracker 2583
biggerboat - nk - village seer 2585
crackedquads - nk - wolf backup 2586
Tokyo!! - win condition fulfilled - serial killer 2587

i can take some time to make it a table later but just organizing info as i go through the thread. let me know if any of the links are broken