Is saturday-sunday a single game day? I couldnt find this information in the OPs.

Tokyo even styled on us with that crackedquads vote yesterday, before slaying him at night.

I think I literally solved the game yesterday. I’m fine with voting any of these 5 in any order, but on principle I want to start with KruZe

This looks quite convincing, or maybe I am just looking for excuses not to have to reread again...

Good morning!

At the risk of giving riverfish yet another spurious reason to push me (I didn't maj an outed wolf and that's a bad thing? Has the "don't ever maj outside must lynch as villa" rule changed since I've played last?) I skimmed and agree with Kukra and dmk villa as biggerboat's peeks. I don't see any peek post from d2, so dropping 2 d3 makes sense. It's kind of a shame since they were my top 2 villas.

Anyways, riverfish, you'll be thrilled to hear that the early night, despite being actually objectively awful and always -ev for us, gave me more quiet time to work on a thorough reread! And write the promised long effortpost that you think doesn't exist, trying to solve the game!

I'll give you a choice. Would you like it as is, or should I update to reflect crackedquads and biggerboat's roles? I'll be honest, I had biggerboat wolf, crackedquads lean villa. (Learning that I'm wrong about things will surely come as a complete shock.) I could post both, at the risk of spamming the thread, it's like 4k words. Maybe I could work something out with spoiler tags to condense things a bit.

Biggers big D3 reads list. He called crackedquads wolf and me villager (I realize he prefaces with "gun to my head" but these are the 2 that stand out.

I'm not convinced this is right though since I don't think a peek of me is really going to happen that frequently. There are better people to peek.

this, however, also feels like it could be a crackedquads peek.


And then below are BiggerBoats D2 posts.

[
The only thing I can see here is maybe a gus night 1 peek? And that just doesn't work with his D3 reads list (where he mentions gus could flip villa if people he thinks are wolves flip wolf).

I agree. I've pulled Kukra off my wolf list for now.

a) please post both
b) please help me see where dmk and kukra villa are bigger's peeks. They make a lot more sense as peeks than what I saw - but I didn't see it.

Sup thread. I was going to be around by 7 pm central, but D3 ended early. Will be re-reading bigger for seer hints.

We went from 10-7-1 alignment to 9 to 5, so it went from nearly must shun to a very winnable game. Good job. And congrats to Tokyo.

But damn if Kruze hasn't been 100% unhelpful the last two days and it's annoying. Does he normally help in games?

Vote is subject to change depending on my re-read of bigger.

riverfish, friend, read more carefully. Even suggesting that you could possibly be a peeked villa for being in the section titled "I really don't know" is, uh, very bold.

These are back-to-back posts:

Elsewhere in the thread yesterday biggerboat was very careful to preface his opinions with I think, I feel, is probably, stuff like that, so that they wouldn't be confused with the absolute statements. Like, y'know, a seer.

That's what I'm going with, feel free to sow some more confusion though.

Bro - your flip from Coordi to Shortline D2 to "avoid rand" was terrible. D3 you come in saying you have a grand read list coming. It never comes. Then outed wolf Crossnerd spews you.

Fair that you not voting Coordi yesterday is somewhat spurious. But the above items are not.

WOW this post

riverfish1, please explain it to me. because the way I understand it is:

kukraprout: could be dmk and maybe me as villa peeks
ykw: yes these look convincing
you: "I agree. I've pulled Kukra off my wolf list for now."

and then you're like:
"please help me see where dmk and kukra villa are bigger's peeks"

wtf did you agree with ykw and pulled me off your wolf list if you hadnt seen the peeks?

seriously, does anyone read riverfish's posts and is like "yeah, this guy makes good points"???

I saw your jailor claim and agreed with YKW that it seemed legit. If YKW was referencing peeks then I completely whiffed on it. Did not see your post on peeks or missed it completely.

Day 4: Automated Votals from #2592 to #2613

KruZe (1): gusmahler (1)
Not voting (14): aaronk56 (0), atakdog (0), Crossnerd (0), dmk (1), Felix the Cat (2), jonnyd (0), KruZe (0), Kukraprout (5), Nicholasp27 (0), riverfish1 (7), sixfour (0), wdcbooks (0), YouKnowWho (6), UNVOTE (0)

Phase ends in 35h32m. Hammer at 8.

Vote history:

<Beta v0.1.8>

YKW WAS QUOTING MY POSTS ABOUT PEEKS, THE POST YOU AGREED WITH HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH MY JAILER CLAIM

******MOD NOTE******



Night will fall SUNDAY at 9pm...not Saturday.

Please be aware, though, that majority lynch is still in effect, so night will fall immediately at majority.




******MOD NOTE******

Good Morning!

Books is alive Kukra is double-cleared, claimed jailing of Books and a probable bigger peek.

It's 9 - 5, we're not at must banish.

yeah I know that was bad. I had it in my head that was the jailor claim because that was what I latched onto.

yes it was bad.

one more thing: why do you think I voted books yesterday?

well played tokyo. boat reread

this is on day 1, obv boat doesn't have a peek at this stage, but useful for reference to see if anything changed wildly, unfortunately it didn't. there's not much from boat at all on day 2, certainly nothing that indicates a peek, if anything it'd be coordi wolf (although there is an oddly timed vote on gus, which i wouldn't hate at some point), so let's look at day 2

third post is much later in the day than the first two, multiquoting dmk. these two are what i think the peeks are, it might have been coordi and it'd have been odd not to have made any reference to either kukra/dmk, but maybe it was kukra d1 and he thought it high enough on the list to not be ambiguous, maybe not. then again

this looks like it may well have been coordi n1


here, dmk and kukra are right at the top of his villagers list. if they're not both peeks and it was coordi n1, there's nothing really separating them in how they're worded to say which is the peek or not, so i'm inclined to put dmk/kukra both off the table completely


this seemed useful in context of what was going on, and some other useful posts. i really don't think any of what boat's said is actually a peek of me, although he does want me dead, i think it's incredibly clear that the peeks are some subset of the three i've listed. this is why:

now if he has peeked me and coordi, why on earth would he list me on the same line as crackedquads and not coordi?

appreciate that i probably need to die soon, just by process of elimination if nothing else, but you can't genuinely claim this is anything other than a read

gus is someone that i'm struggling to read as villager and i can't think of any realistic wolf team that doesn't have gus as a participant, so put it there for now, would be interested to see where kukra/dmk think as a starting point. guessing someone with lower volumes is best crossnerd would probably work, i don't think kruze would, maybe atakdog - i'm seeing more villagers in the higher post count players that are left

quoting V-mothers vote total from yesterday.

note that post is in response to kukra asking why i think he voted books yesterday. It's mostly because I looked at the vote total and saw Kukraprout as on books.

(long post written overnight, I think I've spoilered or struck out all of the dead and any reads/reasoning that depended on them but it's possible I missed one, so if you see something calling biggerboat a wolf or crackedquads a villa, lolfelix is why)

---------------

Letting coordi maj himself was bad and we should feel bad, but it ranks something like 30th on the list of mistakes we've made, so whatever. On the bright side, it let me get my project done in peace.

I went back and reread the thread with the knowledge that coordi is a wolf and all the dead villas were villas, to see if I could learn anything new. I feel like I did.

Up-front note: I wrote this in a text editor so I've just noted post numbers for interesting things and sources, and inlined some quotes. Sorry.

I rated every interaction between coordi and every living player, in a chart that probably only makes sense to me but I can post if y'all want to see it. Here's a summary, most of this is just informational, to help me focus and pick out any important information we gain from knowing he's a wolf. I only looked at days 1 and 2 - since I consider him outed day 3, I have some spew analysis later (for whatever it's worth, which is probably very little, but we're in a bad spot so we need to press thin value).

[h2]Coordi Interactions[/h2]
(and mentions and votes and such)

[h3]Most meaningful[/h3]

[spoiler]biggerboat
biggerboat -> coordi: voted for coordi when he was a wagon both days. On day 2 I thought his vote was questionable in context, he kind of hopped in to lob a vote at coordi at about the same time others were voting him. (More on this in the section about how coordi was obviously bussed.) Interestingly, biggerboat never actually talked about or even mentioned coordi other than voting him. I have trouble giving him a ton of credit for voting for a wolf without any reason why. Especially since there wasn't a ton of reasoning given in thread beyond "he's pretty wolfy", there was no smoking gun until lolclaims d3.

coordi -> biggerboat: one mild push d1[/spoiler]

[spoiler]
dmk
dmk -> coordi: comes out swinging at him day 1. Multiple strong pushes, calls for coordi/atakdog wagons, sticks with his position without hesitation while those wagons are consolidating, does not take opportunities to easily exit his position. Continues the strong push d2. I get a villager read from this - I can't speak for what dmk would specifically do, but I would not push a low-contribution wolf PR on day 1 in that way, it's high risk and low reward, you end up either hoping that someone like me comes along to give you credit or you're forced to quote your own posts, which some people will interpret as deliberate or staged.

coordi -> dmk: zero. This supports my dmk villa read a tiny bit. While wolves often struggle to interact with wolves, I feel like in this spot coordi would feel obligated to respond to dmk(wolf) in thread, he might even be prompted to by dmk in wolfchat. Whereas with dmk(villa) it makes more sense to just ignore it because you'll have a tough time fighting it and you'll only draw attention to yourself - why take the risk if you're not really at risk?[/spoiler]

gusmahler
gus -> coordi: nothing; in fact, gus left coordi out of his reads list of "all" of the low-postcount players, which coordi would have qualified for. I don't make much of this, coordi was only under a little bit of heat at the time, and it's a near mathematical certainty that he did read other wolves in that post so it's not like he was avoiding talking about wolves on policy. The only thing that gives me pause is that, as far as I can tell, coordi is the only person who fit the category who had mentioned (and voted) him. As villa I would have preferred to see him address this, but it's not a huge thing.

coordi -> gus: gus was coordi's target of choice; coordi voted him both days and pushed him pretty hard d2; this was like half of coordi's interaction with still-living players. I don't really know what to make of this, if anything; I have a theory that relies on spew analysis so I'll bring it up in that section.

[spoiler]
Tokyo!!
tokyo -> coordi: nothing d1, but comes out kind of swinging late in his thread presence d2 - pushes coordi in 4 posts, this is before he's a real wagon so, as with dmk, some credit is due.

coordi -> tokyo: one mild push d2[/spoiler]

[h3]Interactions Happened[/h3]

aaronk56
aaronk -> coordi: d1 tried to CFD multiple times when coordi was 3rd wagon (behind aao and atakdog), never really said why. d2 voted coordi in a non-meaningful spot. Did not talk about coordi either day.
coordi -> aaronk: very mild push once (this will be a pattern)

atakdog
atakdog -> coordi: none (recall he was silenced most of d2)
coordi -> atakdog: voted for his wagon rather than aao's during the consolidation stage, very mild push once

[spoiler]crackedquads
crackedquads -> coordi: commented on not knowing much about coordi d1, no other content
coordi -> crackedquads: nada[/spoiler]

jonnyd
jonnyd -> coordi: a single soft push d1, without voting him. d2 he voted for the coordi wagon; beforehand he had a neutral mention of coordi without a read attached, afterwards he had one post continuing to soft push him.
coordi -> jonnyd: nothing.

Kukraprout (SHC)
kukra -> coordi: nothing d1, on day 2 pushed him a couple of times; I think he was asleep by the time the coordi wagon started.
coordi -> kukra: nothing.

Nicholasp27
Nich -> coordi: among the early coordi voters, but switched off once coordi was 3rd wagon.
coordi -> nich: one mild push d1

riverfish1
riverfish -> coordi: a mild push d2
coordi -> riverfish: nada

YouKnowWho
YKW -> coordi: nothing
coordi -> YKW: includes YKW in his very-soft-pushing both days

There was zero interaction involving wdcbooks (villa), who wasn't in thread when interesting things happpened. Crossnerd, KruZe, sixfour shockingly had no interactions.

[h2]Day 1 Notes[/h2]

I found this interesting, directly from my notes:

Mentions, responses, votes at the time that coordi was a d1 wagon
People in thread and who they address/mention, (respond to without addressing them) or VOTE between 6:23 and 7:29 (start and end of coordi as wagon)
YouKnowWho: Crossnerd, KruZe, Luckbox, shortline, traz, dmk, aao, Sun Tzu, aaronk56 (implicitly)
Crossnerd: YouKnowWho (LC), AAO
biggerboat: COORDI
dmk: aao, atakdog, coordi, (aaronk56), YouKnowWho, Kukraprout, (riverfish), Luckbox
aaronk56: YOUKNOWWHO, (dmk), Luckbox, (aao), Bobo, (riverfish1), (Sun Tzu), AAO, TOKYO
riverfish1: YouKnowWho, aao, Luckbox
jonnyd: aao, atakdog, coordi, (traz), (mrs. jonnyd), atakdog, Crossnerd, Luckbox
atakdog: traz, Crossnerd, coordi, Sun Tzu, jonnyd, mrs. jonnyd, (Luckbox)

People who don't vote an active wagon here: YouKnowWho
People who avoid discussing both atakdog and coordi: YouKnowWho, Crossnerd, aaronk56, riverfish1
People whose posting is stinky: jonnyd

We'll get to jonnyd in a moment. I think the first 2 groups are likely to contain wolves on principle, even more likely if atakdog is a wolf. YouKnowWho in particular was very concerning as he was talking about everyone but the wagons, and I should have seen this in my first read-through. Note "biggerboat: COORDI", I'm not lying about him drive-by voting coordi with no explanation both days. Note also that Crossnerd made an appearance to have a low-content interaction with YouKnowWho, cast a pretty important aao vote (vote #6, result aao 6, atakdog 4, coordi 3) and leave. All 3 of these look sketchy at best and howly at worst.

On jonnyd's posts late d1

jonnyd #1117 7:12 "I’m caught up and fine with the top wagons (aao atak coordi)"
jonnyd #1134 7:20 re aao being villa wagon: "I think there’s been a good amount of thread anxiety about his wagon/trying to get a counter that I don’t agree with ["aao smells like a dead villager", traz]. Unless you mean his posting which I also don’t think has been very clearing lately either"
jonnyd #1141 7:23 "[aao] has 7 votes and the next guy has 4 and the next 3.. not exactly insurmountable"

The second post is immediately (and correctly) called out by traz for being bunkum.

The views here are inconsistent. If wolves are trying to move off aao(wolf) onto a counter, that implies that one of atakdog or coordi is not a good wagon and he shouldn't be fine with it. The third post confirms that in post 2 he does mean atak/coordi by "trying to get a counter" and not i.e. aaronk's attempts to CFD random people or birdman pushing aaronk and Crossnerd.

---

jonnyd #1253 7:50 "Has aao even done anything to warrant not being lead wagon though? People are saying Dustin has been tunneling him or some of the voters are afk but nothing specifically about him has been clearing in this last hour unless I missed something"

This is y i k e s, imo. It's pushing aao without directly pushing him: aao is implied to be an okay vote because he hasn't cleared himself, but jonnyd doesn't call for votes on aao, and frames it in a way that he can dodge responsibility - he wasn't pushing, he was just noting other peoples' prior pushes! As if that isn't bad enough, it's moving into commentary mode territory.

---

jonnyd #1274 7:54 "I’m willing to move off aao to jdalla but not if it ensures luckbox gets shunned over aao"

At this very moment voting jdalla would make him first wagon at 6/5/5, why not just move? If anything, moving to JDalla makes Luckbox less likely to be shunned, not more.

---

I have no idea why I ever read jonnyd strong villa, because all of this is fairly howly. I feel like I should have caught this at the time (well, d2, since I was asleep for all of the second d1). I guess I'm really rusty.

Nich saves atakdog

Nich #1269 7:53 votes jdalla to promote him to 3rd wagon over atakdog and tie luckbox/aao (luckbox 6, aao 6, jdalla 4) - the problem is that this is a good "information vote" that I could see Nich making, making the wagons tied to increase information density of the late day voting, but that's a great excuse to get off atakdog and onto a villager. atakdog had been getting consistent low-level pressure all day and was a threat to become the counterwagon to aao if luckbox voters were willing to move to him. Nobody was really clearing him and he was actively posting badly. Nich's vote was IMO what saved atakdog from being a wagon at EOD.

atakdog mercs our angel

atakdog switched his vote from JDalla to Luckbox at :00, just after aao had claimed village angel - but in the midst of others moving aao -> JDalla, so it wasn't a literal crosspost. At this point, Luckbox has just 1 other vote, so even ignoring aao's way-too-late claim, this is an objectively awful swap to make at :00.

aaronk56 almost saves our angel

aaronk56 swapped from aao to JDalla moments late, with a :01 timestamp. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't feel like aaronk would be inclined to shoot this angle with a deliberate post after night, so I'm inclined to give him full credit for the vote. It's good for him, but not clearing as YouKnowWho suggested d2, because of course you swap off the claimed angel d1, and just forcing the claim is a victory for the wolves.

[u]other d1 wagonomics[/i]
crackedquads: not great; his movement atakdog -> aao made atakdog not a wagon. But this is an easy consolidation vote at :59 for a villager so it's not very meaningful.

YouKnowWho: awful; he's in the thread near EOD, keeps solo-voting KruZe instead of choosing from among the active wagons, and does not vote to save aao either before or after his claim, despite commenting earlier that he thinks aao is villagery.

day 1 conclusions, before rereading day 2

people from wolf to villa (thin):
atakdog
jonnyd
YouKnowWho
(Crossnerd)
aaronk56
(riverfish1)
(Nich)
--- w/v line ---
(biggerboat)
crackedquads
Tokyo
dmk (very villagery)

[h2]Day 2 Notes[/h2]

early day

#1343 YouKnowWho lock clears aaronk56 for the aao -> JDalla late vote. shortline later points out that this doesn't make sense without knowing JDalla's role. I see the point, but villa angel is a huge d1 elimination. If aao had claimed watcher/tracker I would be much more doubtful, for example.

[spoiler]
#1357 dmk hard pushing for atakdog/coordi wagons and (likely correctly) pointing out that the CFD to JDalla was pretty bad[/spoiler]

?!?!??!?!?!?!??! aaronk56 #1400:
"This is a BS. I was the only person trying to get any interest off the 3 wagons. The only cfd that had any interest was [YouKnowWho]. So nice try."

First of all, why is aaronk56 calling a post that reasonably clears him "BS"?

Second, taking credit for trying to start a CFD only makes a lot of sense if there was some major reason aaronk56 thought that all three wagons were bad. aaronk56 didn't express strong opposition to the coordi and atakdog wagons and framed the proposed CFD onto YouKnowWho as an affirmative vote against YKW's posting, not a vote driven by dislike of the aao/atakdog/coordi wagons. So why is aaronk56 taking credit for getting votes off atakdog/coordi as if it's a good thing? Or maybe the three wagons were meant to be aao/JDalla/atakdog. Not liking the JDalla CFD is reasonable I guess, but we have the same problem with atakdog, why was it good to be trying to get interest off him?

Huge caveat: while I think this reasoning is solid because there's really no reason aaronk should be taking credit for trying to drive a CFD off the unknown atakdog/(JDalla or coordi) wagons, it bothers me that the reasoning works equally well if atakdog is a wolf - aaronk slips up and exposes his thinking that the atakdog wagon was "bad" - and if atakdog is a villa - prematurely taking credit for trying to start a CFD outside v/v/v final wagons. At minimum I would be hesitant to call atakdog spewed either way if aaronk flips wolf.

shortline's wolf list

requoting for posterity. shortline is good at ww, we should give his words some weight, even though I have some different thoughts after my readthrough.

also shortline #1676 "i have said all game that i have three villagers - wdcbooks, felix, and dustin. " This game would be a lot easier if we could just treat me as lock cleared villa despite my poopy play!

YouKnowWho is hard to read

YouKnowWho #1659 calls for a KruZe wagon again, proposes Crossnerd as a good alternative. I'm very confused because this is his nth post that is completely disconnected from anything going on in the game, but pushing KruZe and Crossnerd is objectively good... but for the second day, villagers are being hard pushed by villagers, so if YKW is wolfbuddies with KruZe or Crossnerd this is a fairly low-risk w/w play... but he's kind of stuck on this as the only strong opinion he has about the game (aside from mechanically clearing aaronk56) which seems like possibly behavior of a villa who thinks he caught a wolf. But - crucially - he doesn't have any reason to have conviction that KruZe specifically is a wolf; he's just on KruZe and Crossnerd for being low-volume/low-content players, but there are others like sixfour, coordi, gusmahler, atakdog, even me, so how could he have such conviction on KruZe here? This feels like a wolf trying to imitate a villa play - doing a villagery thing in the wrong context.

Additionally the post kind of screams TMI about shortline. YouKnowWho #1683 asking not to wagon Luckbox for a specious reason (if he's villa the wolves will kill him, aka halfway rule) either could be TMI as well. 'Future voters, please don't hold me responsible for these v/v wagons!' Especially since it's far from guaranteed that the wolves would kill Luckbox since, y'know, people are clearly willing to vote him - again it seems like a wolf trying to imitate a villa play (never vote a strong player off the island) in an incorrect context.

I don't know, this seems pretty not-good but YKW could just be a villa with a different perspective or playstyle from me, or maybe he did see something in KruZe's d1 that he thought was wolfy and didn't mention it. Anybody have any thoughts on this specifically?

The villa vig receives poor guidance

(post-daybreak note: from a wolf and the SK)

[spoiler]Tokyo #1709 "But [killing Luckbox] is something for the vig to resolve i think." Makes sense for sure, assuming he needs to be resolved. But prompting the villa vig to shoot Luckbox while keeping plausible deniability - Luckbox shouldn't be shot because he is a likely wolf, he should be shot for information because he needs to be resolved - would be a great wolf play here.

crackedquads #1818 also calls for Luckbox to be killed by the villa vig, and I have the same thoughts as above.

Just because it would be a great wolf play doesn't mean it's actually a great wolf play; it's a reasonable enough villa play too, though since we know the wolves will get a watch/track n2, ideally we wouldn't try to control the vig's shot and make their job easy.[/spoiler]

Odds and ends

sixfour #1797 testing how many people can be soft-pushed in one post. Yucky, especially since this is most of his daily contribution.

[spoiler]biggerboat #2003 thinks we should resolve luckbox and shortline, then votes gus -> coordi when luckbox and shortline are leading wagons. Wait, what?[/spoiler]

Crossnerd's top villager is... KruZe?!?

Crossnerd #1891 votes gus: "Some of my top villagers are voting gus" so she's sponging them. At this point Gus voters are shortline, Nich, sixfour, coordi. Nich is fake peek, who's the other top villager here? Next post #1893 implies that shortline is not one of her top villagers.

Crossnerd #1898 thought KruZe was voting gus, which strongly implied that he was one of her aforementioned top villagers. Nich is the fake peek so KruZe has to be a villa read for the preceding to be true. How in the world would KruZe be one of her top villas here? If the top villas in question are Nich and KruZe, it implies that KruZe is one of her top 3 villager reads - that would make her top 4 villagers split 2/2 on/off gus; if KruZe were lower than top 3 it would mean the majority of her top villagers are not voting gus so a sponge would lead her elsewhere. In any case KruZe's exact ranking among Crossnerd's top villagers is not so important; him having any sort of ranking among anyone's top villagers that could justify sponging his vote is alarming, to say the least. (Oh, and then she proceeds to not sponge him. What in the world.)

[h2]Day 2 Wagonomics[/h2]

Now that we know some roles, day 2's wagons are actually interesting. I will post CHARTZ separately.

In summary, here's what happened:

As of 7:15 we were at Luckbox 6, shortline 6, gusmahler 4, Crossnerd 2 and some solo votes. My vote was on coordi, but I had made it very clear that it was mostly a placeholder vote - I wouldn't have minded a coordi wagon, but I was mostly doing it to unvote. At 7:15ish I proposed a coordi CFD because a CFD target had been asked for, thinking it would amount to nothing. shortline followed this. riverfish moves Luckbox -> shortline (shortline 7, luckbox 5, gusmahler 3), Luckbox tries to make jonnyd happen (shortline 7, luckbox 4, gusmahler 3). Coordi bumps Luckbox back up to 5 votes, and then something truly peculiar happens: all of the shady people arrive in thread to vote in a very... coordinated way.

7:30 aaronk56 Crossnerd -> coordi. A thumbs-up at 7:28 is his first thread activity of late day. This vote boosts coordi to top 3 wagon status (shortline 7, luckbox 5, coordi 3).

7:32 mrs. jonnyd(villa) aaronk56 -> coordi (shortline 7, luckbox 5, coordi 4)

7:38 biggerboat(villa) no-vote -> gusmahler, then 7:41 gusmahler -> coordi, another key coordi vote since it makes up for mrs. jonnyd moving to sixfour and keeps coordi viable. (shortline 7, luckbox 6, coordi 4)

[spoiler]
see biggerboat #2003 7:39 "coordi seems fine too. but geez, we gotta resolve luckbox and shorty at some point in time" note above. Definitely a what in the world?!? moment. And it's not as luckbox and shorty had just become wagons; they were the lead wagons at 7:15 when this analysis starts, at or before the time that biggerboat was supposedly reading the thread.[/spoiler]

7:45 mrs. jonnyd(villa) back to coordi. (shortline 7, luckbox 6, coordi 5)

7:49 Nicholasp27 gusmahler -> coordi. This is his first and last thread appearance of the late day.

7:50 jonnyd Luckbox -> coordi. Weakly justified in #2015 7:42 "I feel myself losing conviction and wanting to hop off shorty/luckbox. I guess if we end up on a villa neither is long for the world but idk", which is not actually a reason to vote for coordi. (shortline 7, coordi 7, luckbox 5)

7:58 my fatal coordi -> shortline secures the shortline exit.

The verdict: this has to be a bus. It's obvious. There's literally no reason for any of aaronk56, biggerboat, Nich or jonnyd to vote for coordi here - and to do it all starting 30 minutes before nightfall, without any preparatory work, without discussion with one another or the thread about it, with 3/4 of them having just arrived, at a time when nobody's really talking about coordi and the strongest case that has been made is 'he seems kinda wolfy'... come on. This can't be villager movement. There's no way. It is not believable. Keep in mind that coordi was under suspicion d1 too, wasn't posting very strongly, and because the villa watcher/tracker was dead coordi was on the verge of becoming the only lock vanilla wolf, so this is an OK bus spot. And even without my switch they would be flipping with a shortline elimination 8-8 (coordi gusmahler -> shortline and luckbox jonnyd -> coordi should still happen shortly before EOD if I don't swap) so it's kind of win-win for them.

Other late day 2 notes

Tokyo #2049 "so this is interesting because i think if coordi flips wolf, shortline is suddenly cleared. and if coordi flips village, shortline is always a wolf" - this is probably not what you say when wolfchat has just called for the bus; you'd want to leave yourself room to maneuver into a shortline vote the next day, something like 'coordi flipping wolf looks good for shortline, restricts him to villager or wolf power role'. See riverfish1 #2075, which does exactly this. I made the comment on Tokyo before reading riverfish, this is creepy.

[h2]Day 3: Mostly Spew Analysis[/h2]

riverfish1 plays a good wolf game?

riverfish1 #2230 this is the second time he's said something consistent with a wolf agenda as I see it. "The path forward imo is to cross-reference Shorty's wolf-list with with Shorty/Dustbox wagons and just move down that lynching people. [...] if Coordi flips wolf, that makes Coordi's wagon super pure." For me this basically confirms that coordi was a bus job. Maybe an accidental bus, I can see aaronk56 jumping on unintentionally, not anticipating that mrs. jonnyd would hop on shortly afterwards, and then at that point the decision to bus is made. Or am I leveling myself?

Spew

Up front I want to say: I'm not a huge believer in the value of spew analysis on an outed wolf. It's too easy to get played. But we're so far behind that we need to push every edge. I think coordi's spew will follow the usual patterns; I don't read him as an advanced spewer.

coordi #2246/#2247 I think spews gusmahler villa, he sounds legit annoyed that gusmahler has a similar level of participation to him yet he got caught by "random people with no reasoning". DMK/Tokyo maybe w/v? It's hard enough for me to envision a wolf team with one of them, much less both of them.

coordi #2249 DMK, biggerboat, Tokyo, crossnerd, KruZe, sixfour "I'd have a look at voting". This is not the wolf team.

[spoiler]
My thinking now is that coordi and dmk aren't teammates, dmk put way too much pressure on him early game for that - watcher/tracker is a decent wolf PR, why become conductor of his wagon day 1? That would make Tokyo the wolf in the earlier spew. I think 3-4 wolves in the second list; I'm leaning toward biggerboat wolf based on coordi focusing the spew there (if we're going to do spew analysis, which I think we have to given the situation, I assume level 1 thinking here). At least 2 villas among Crossnerd/KruZe/sixfour, he's not going to put all the weakest wolves on his team and none of the weakest villagers on his list, is he?

Tokyo #2254 factually inaccurate about yesterday's voting patterns; sixfour voted shortline when coordi had one vote, mine, which I explicitly called a placeholder because I didn't want to use unvote.

Tokyo #2269 yet more evidence Tokyo/dmk aren't w/w. (If they're w/w they've already won anyways.)[/spoiler]

Odds and Ends

Crossnerd #2303 claims Nich/KruZe fakepeeks, why peek KruZe if he's one of her supposed top villagers yesterday? Her posting here doesn't make any sense at all.

riverfish1 #2344 how does he know coordi is a power wolf? (except he's not a real power wolf now, so...?)

Crossnerd #2538 "Probably a tie between kukra and nichp" on who is her 2nd clearest non-fakepeek villa. It's a tie between the sole seer hunt cleared villa and... the guy who's made a grand total of one read all game, as far as I can tell, and otherwise worked out role-neutral mechanics? Is she more likely to be this out of it as wolf or villa? Or SK even?

[h2]Conclusions[/h2]

After all that, I still don't know the wolf team.

I am clearing dmk, [s]crackedquads[/s] (lolfelix) and gusmahler. dmk I feel strongly about. [s]crackedquads and[/s] gusmahler are weaker, more PoE than anything, but I need to narrow down the wolf team and they're the next clearest.

[spoiler]
I want to clear Tokyo, spew is the main reason I can't. But spew is low value so... I probably clear Tokyo despite the risk. If he's a wolf we lose anyways.[/spoiler]

I've struggled trying to pin down an exact wolf team. I keep making lists that makes sense and none of them quite fits. The big problem is that I can't clear enough villagers; out of Crossnerd, KruZe, sixfour, Nich and atakdog I think there's 2, possibly 3 villagers, which is kind of uncool but it is what it is.

On every wolf list I can imagine:

jonnyd
[s]biggerboat[/s] (lolfelix)

Mostly wolf:
riverfish1
Crossnerd
aaronk56

Possibly wolf but ??? (low participation):
atakdog

Possibly wolf but ??? (strange participation):
YouKnowWho

???????:
KruZe
sixfour

[spoiler]
The problem here is that 1 to 2 of the low-participation players have to be village, unless I am completely and utterly off track.[/spoiler]

(post-daybreak)
Now that there's only 5 wolves remaining and biggerboat is eliminated from my wolf list (lolfelix), there is a feasible wolf team with all of the low-participation players: jonnyd, Crossnerd, atakdog, KruZe, sixfour. Do we think that's precisely the wolf team? You have no idea how much I want aaronk and especially riverfish to be wolves here, lol. I hope atakdog, Crossnerd, KruZe and sixfour find time to interact with the thread a bit more today!

riverfish1: my question was more "why did you think my thought process was when I voted books and not coordi?". Especially when you thought I was a wolf. You were in the thread last night, I remember you paid some attention and mentioned some of my posts. I'd like to know more about your thought process.

oh hey the spoiler tags and strikethroughs didn't work

(I never use any vBulletin forums outside 2p2, which I haven't posted on in several years...)