Nich needs to be in the ????? list

Another question for riverfish:
What's so clearing about my jailkeep claim? The Wolf vig can miss or be blocked. And maybe wolves didnt even target books. Maybe I'm a wolf, won a jailkeep, jailed a random villager or a wolfbro, and now I'm making things up to look good.

In case this isnt clear to the audience I think riverfish is howling today.

It was only terrible in terms of results-oriented thinking. In actuality I was pretty clear that I had shortline wolf. You could argue that was terrible - I'd argue that, in retrospect - but it would be difficult since you voted shorty too.

If there are two wagons I am willing to vote and don't have a big preference between, something I used to do was flip from one to the other at EOD. If I bink a wolf, we're up one and I'm lock clear. If it's a villa, I was wrong, but I was already wrong by being open to voting that person. So I think about the marginal value of clearing myself and try to compare that to my preference between the tied/nearly tied wagons and the risk of flipping w -> v like here, and if the difference is less than that value in my mental model of the game, I flip. I think it's often +EV.

Because some of our top minds decided it was a great idea to maj lynch with hours left in the day while I was in the middle of rereading.

I think she's likely wolf, but Crossnerd isn't an outed wolf, and she didn't spew anybody anything.

Other than the coordi -> shortline vote switch, which I guess I'll explain as many times as I need to, it's all spurious.

I agree... but as much as I want to think he's a wolf, we're stuck in a spot where too many people are strongly wolfy by default. Like, do I think riverfish is likely a wolf? Yes, I think so. Do I think he's more likely to be a wolf than, idk, KruZe? Possibly not.

!!!!!! EVENT!!!!!!!!!

yet your big post has riverfish as mostly wolf and kruze as ???.

You're making this a lot about you. I never analyzed your non-Coordi vote specifically - I just said in general non-Coordi votes are more suspicious.

Wolves have 2 swings. 1 was clearly a seerhunt. Other was likely at Books as the only cleared villager. Wolf vig likely missed D1 (3 kills total with a vig, SK, and 2 wolf kills). What's more likely - you jailed books to protect or our roleblocker found and blocked the vig wolf?

Also why would you randomly claim jailor early in the day as a wolf? Seems a little FPS-y on the surface.

Wolves based on more intuitive "thread feeling": atakdog and KruZe. Both keep being brought up as people who probably would be a strong wagon, yet the wagon never actually happens. They're... slippery, I guess, which would be understandable if they were itt posting villagery things, but points to outside influence if they're posting wolfy things or not itt at all. Both would have been very easy wagons for wolves to push, but they never seriously did.

in for another jailkeep

"work hard, party harder"

"a little party never hurt anybody”

interesting that the most on-point post you made is about wolf kills.

“You moon the wrong person at an office party and suddenly you’re not a professional anymore.” — Jeff Foxworthy

“One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.” – George Carlin

As the village reveled through the morning, the Peacekeeper kept laying on sick jams, and plying anyone and everyone with more liquor. It reminded him of his old days of political fundraising and pressing the flesh.

Only one refugee didn't appreciate it. Atakdog had awakened with a terrible headache, and fleeing the everescalating volume, he raced into the woods and dunked his head in the icy river.

Then he set off for a long, long walk, not to return for several hours, at which time, he desperately hoped, the village would be keeping it down to a quiet roar.


ATAKDOG has been silenced until 6 pm server time.

SILENCE ENDS AT 6PM SATURDAY (today)

It should be "do I think riverfish is more likely to be wolf than some superposition of KruZe/Nich/sixfour/atakdog" but I'm tired and couldn't think of a way of saying that concisely earlier.

If riverfish is a wolf, one of those people is not a wolf.

And since I have jonnyd as my top wolf who is participating in the game, riverfish wolf means that two of those people are villagers.

Yet I don't think the wolfpack is entirely within the set of riverfish, jonnyd, aaronk56, Crossnerd, YouKnowWho and gusmahler, meaning that at least one of the UTRs has to be a wolf, and other than atakdog's horrible terrible no-good-very-bad EOD vote switch off wagon, there's not much to distinguish among those four on, so my confidence in any one ??? resolving villa is low.

That's the point I was getting at. Does that make more sense?

you've got to be kidding me

Well first things first I was wrong about lynching inside the claim so gj everyone. I was upset about the maj bc I had been writing a reply and hit submit and the thread was closed. If today is a two day day then I am happy to do some work and hopefully with one wolf down and no sk things open up a lot.

also gg bigger and tokyo

Now.

Felix, I’m not gonna let the guy who has the worst living vote throw shade at me for eod d2

If I’m a wolf I had firmly planted my feet in the ground for shorty/luckbox wagons and pushed them all afternoon. why would I ever switch there as a wolf when I had no reason to do so? You’re right that it was inconsistent and in this case that is actually extremely villagery. I made the votes shorty 7, coordi-7 with like 5 minutes left! You then came over the top and voted shortline. Even with your “solid reasoning” actions speak louder than words my man. Wolves know the roles so it is way easier for them to have solid and consistent reasoning with their votes and good wolves lay the groundwork ahead of time for wolfy actions.

Where your analysis is flawed is that inconsistency isn’t wolfy if the action is pro-villa.

Yes villagers are allowed to be wrong but they should also get credit when they are right. If you think I’m a wolf for other reasons then I agree I have bad moments but in your analysis you try to discredit possibly the most villagery living vote of d2 multiple times. The post reeked of an agenda to me and did not feel objective.

even if atakdog is a wolf I feel bad for him, being silenced twice in three days in a social game is unfortunate

Take some time, then go back and re-read me.

You locked on to dumb things I said early this day and are now looking at everything with a conclusion of me being a wolf in mind. It's warping your judgement.

jonnyd, you need more than just "I voted a wolf give me credit please" because bussing exists. Like, we need to be able to see why you voted that way.

I wouldn't bring up having perfect knowledge of the roles as wolf, because that would be an excellent reason to make that exact swap at that exact time - coordi had not yet voted shortline so wagons were effectively 8 shortline - 7 coordi after your vote so it's a great spot to get credit. Except, again, if you want full credit you have to earn it. The best you can probably do is argue that you did exactly what I did (except without any pre-expressed interest in voting coordi).

I nearly forgot CHARTZ