Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Not that Trump needs apologists here -- and I agree Trump is probably guilty of all kinds of wrong-doings.
But that's why any one specific lies makes it hard to deduce the underlying motivation for the number of tawdry lies Trump and everyone around him tells. Like, Trump lies literally all the time. About everything. Is Putin behind his years long Birther campaign? Trump lies about voter fraud. Attacks in Sweden. He made up a fake publicist and impersonated him. He lies about his poll numbers and his success and his abilities. So he also lies about the extent of his contacts with Russia. Maybe he's just a serial liar because he's an narcissistic moron and all of the people in his employ have gotten hip to the fact he also wants them to lie and obfuscate.
Someone consistently lying makes it even less likely there's some overarching motivation (e.g., Putin pulling his puppet strings) behind it all. It makes it more likely he's just a terrible moron and all his people just scramble around doing their own things (e.g,, lobbying for Turkey or enrich their oil buddies) and then also lying about it because they know their boss is a serial liar and tacitly approves of that kind of style. As someone noted, voters have baked-in the Trump:Russia stories. It's morphed into a convenient place for Trump Admin lies to land: it's now in the realm of another partisan story, no political costs to the attribution arriving there.
I want to be clear that I factor in some large probability Trump is literally a Putin stooge or there is absolutely some illegal coordination between Putin and Trump. Could be. But Trump being a lying bozo scandal machine who requires persistent lies and obfuscation means we'll often get the underlying motivations wrong.
I think that the bolded above pretty much sums it up. Putin and Russia had little to gain from an overt conspiracy with Trump supporters. They probably preferred winks and nods, if only to maintain plausible deniability and to insulate themselves from reprisal in the event of a Trump meltdown. My best guess about the truth is:
1) The Trump campaign did not direct, coordinate, or even have advance knowledge of Russia's efforts to meddle with the election.
2) Russia never outright admitted to the Trump campaign that it was meddling with the election.
3) Trump started down the "Putin is OK" road because he has significant business interests in Russia. He stuck to the path because (i) he is a liar; (ii) he is stubborn; (iii) he still has financial interests in Russia; (iv) he honestly admires Putin's autocratic style of governance; and and (v) he thinks that any acknowledgment of Russia as a bad actor undermines the legitimacy of his election victory.
4) Trump's tax returns would make clear that he has business interests in Russia, which is why he will never release them except at the point of a bayonet.
5) The Trump campaign signaled to Russia that (i) Trump would support lifting sanctions if he got elected (see Flynn, Michael), and (ii) a Trump administration would have little interest in investigating whether Russia was meddling in the election.
6) Sessions gave a Bill Clinton-style response in his confirmation hearing mostly because he is an idiot, not because he is or was a critical figure in a Trump/Russia conspiracy.
7) If the other shoe drops on a broader conspiracy, one of the top three gangsters (Stone, Manafort, or Bannon) will be right in the middle of it.
Last edited by Rococo; 03-10-2017 at 03:55 PM.