Jones essentially a lock to win imo.

Moore would have to massively outperform in Mobile.


Itshappening

King Nate is telling you to calm your **** on the NTY Needle.

The Upshot’s model shows good news for Jones, but it has also been swinging around a fair bit. A few minutes ago, they had him with a 90 percent chance of winning, but that probability is now back down to 67 percent.

I really admire what the Upshot folks are trying to do, but it’s also worth noting that building a live-updating model based on partial returns is a really hard problem. Among other things, its hard to calibrate your estimates of uncertainty based on empirical data, because (to put this in a nontechnical way) every state and every election is different. So I’d keep a watchful eye on the Upshot’s dials to get an overall sense of how things are trending, but I wouldn’t take the probabilities too literally, at least until later in the night.

Big populous blue counties under reporting obv

lol

Within 32k votes now...

Lol. Jones moving down on NYT... I need to not follow this **** live.

Moore is going to win. Damn

Jones is up 40k votes with only 40% reporting. If that margin holds hell pick up like another 40-60k votes.

Chiefsplanet will give you some action.

WTF is up with all of these different vote counts

bro I have the Jones side of that bet

god ****ing PI is so tilting right now

Probably some shady **** going down in the blue counties. Probably why things are moving slow there.

Looking at the counties that Moore won.

Doesn't "Winston County, Alabama" just sound like a place were everyone has an opioid habit?

NYT has Moore up 50k votes (7 points) with 64% in. They're estimating >500k votes remain to be counted

Oh - well played then

From 538
"Folks, remember: These Jefferson (Birmingham) numbers are going to get narrower. Jones has 82 percent of the vote there now, but it’s a racially polarized county with many very Republican suburbs still to report. We really don’t know how favorable it will end up for Jones."

Holy **** I feel for you.

LET'S GO DOUG JONES!

Moore at .17 on PI??? Jones at .65

15c Moore Yes at predictit but my buy order from 10 mins still hasn't gone through RIP

Well that doesn't make me feel good.

turnout is going to be about 1.3MM

let's see how heavy the urban turnout is

Politico showing Jones getting stomped

Seems unlikely that Hannity would understand things like projections. Surprised he would consider anything but current raw vote.

omg that Cohn map...