Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington) - Page 86 - Politics and Economics

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Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

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12-12-2017 , 10:43 PM

#2126

TheMadcap

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 790

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Jones essentially a lock to win imo.

Moore would have to massively outperform in Mobile.

Itshappening

Maybe I’m just guilty of glass half full thinking but this seems right to me. So many of the red counties are in and there is so much blue to be counted.

I’m not seeing why CNN seems to be saying Jones should start feeling nervous.

12-12-2017 , 10:43 PM

#2127

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

Predictit has Moore down to 17 cents? Did the site crash again or something?

12-12-2017 , 10:43 PM

#2128

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,330

the black lodge is low key helping dougie jones navigate this senate race

12-12-2017 , 10:43 PM

#2129

will1530

self-banned

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Jones essentially a lock to win imo.

Moore would have to massively outperform in Mobile.

Itshappening

Outperform what? Where it's at now? Mobile is Trump country,

12-12-2017 , 10:44 PM

#2130

bobman0330

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,234

WTF is NYT doing?

12-12-2017 , 10:44 PM

#2131

Klingbard

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigt2k4

From 538
"Folks, remember: These Jefferson (Birmingham) numbers are going to get narrower. Jones has 82 percent of the vote there now, but it’s a racially polarized county with many very Republican suburbs still to report. We really don’t know how favorable it will end up for Jones."

exactly. if nyt is only using raw county data, it is really skewed. you have to drill down to the precinct, and it's not clear that they did.

12-12-2017 , 10:44 PM

#2132

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Looks like Nate was right about Mobile

12-12-2017 , 10:45 PM

#2133

adios

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,540

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

Jones PLUS FIVE!?

Congrats to all the Democrat supporters on the forum. Jones came through for ya!

12-12-2017 , 10:45 PM

#2134

Matty Lice

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 3,438

Guys, Remember. If Jones wins, that means Trump backed Strange and lost. Then he backed Moore and lost again.

12-12-2017 , 10:45 PM

#2135

Paul McSwizzle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,531

Mobile is 50% black, that ain't Trump country

12-12-2017 , 10:45 PM

#2136

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,330

nyt at jones +2.1 and 62% of winning

(jones +11 still in play)

12-12-2017 , 10:45 PM

#2137

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,982

Ugh, NYT estimate down to 62%

Last edited by eyebooger; 12-12-2017 at 10:46 PM. Reason: Pony also at 62%

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2138

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

NYT is trolling us?

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2139

Rococo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 20,896

Quote:

Originally Posted by will1530

Outperform what? Where it's at now? Mobile is Trump country,

Not really.

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2140

ANONN123

Guest

Posts: n/a

No way NYT model is right

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2141

Dynasty

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 26,060

What bothers me about the NYT needle is that with 65% of precincts fully reporting, the model still has a range of 22 points (Jones +12 to Moore +10).

Even a poll of a few dozen random people on the street might not have that big of a margin of error.

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2142

jjshabado

Carpal Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,732

Definite trolling.

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2143

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Nearly every red county at 100% reporting or close to it.

A lot of blue counties yet to be counted.

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2144

Jiggymike

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 13,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by adios

Congrats to all the Democrat supporters on the forum. Jones came through for ya!

And if Moore wins, here’s a sarcastic congrats to you on supporting a lunatic who had sexual relations with 14 year olds when he was in his 30s! MAGA

12-12-2017 , 10:46 PM

#2145

JordanIB

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 13,458

NYT ****ing us again?

12-12-2017 , 10:47 PM

#2146

Trolly McTrollson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 38,355

We got this.

12-12-2017 , 10:47 PM

#2147

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,330

dougie jones trailing by 60k votes, 10k write-ins

12-12-2017 , 10:47 PM

#2148

riddle777

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 708

Quote:

Originally Posted by adios

Congrats to all the Democrat supporters on the forum. Jones came through for ya!

This is no where close to being decided.

12-12-2017 , 10:47 PM

#2149

will1530

self-banned

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klingbard

exactly. if nyt is only using raw county data, it is really skewed. you have to drill down to the precinct, and it's not clear that they did.

If NYT isn't using precinct level data in their stupid tracker I'm done with them forever.

12-12-2017 , 10:47 PM

#2150

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

NYT did this **** last year too, no clue why you guys are really watching it

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