Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington) - Page 82 - Politics and Economics

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Politics

Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

...

Page 82 of 138

First

32 62 72 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 92 102 132

Last

Page 82 of 138

First

32 62 72 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 92 102 132

Last

12-12-2017 , 10:24 PM

#2026

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,330

Quote:

Originally Posted by awval999

I think you all overestimated how many people were going to vote for a pedophile, even in Alabama.

it ain't over. my preconceptions about alabama WILL be confirmed!

12-12-2017 , 10:24 PM

#2027

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Someone was saying upthread Montgomery is heavily red.

NYT has it as a big blue spot, which I assume is based on historical data.

12-12-2017 , 10:24 PM

#2028

will1530

self-banned

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Someone was saying upthread Montgomery is heavily red.

Clinton won Montgomery county

12-12-2017 , 10:24 PM

#2029

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Is this a legit turnout problem or a model problem? Seems too big of an error to be a legit turnout issue

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940768238614478849

Last edited by SuperUberBob; 12-12-2017 at 10:25 PM. Reason: damn tweet ain't working

12-12-2017 , 10:25 PM

#2030

samsonh

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 3,535

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Someone was saying upthread Montgomery is heavily red.

Well it’s 55% black

12-12-2017 , 10:25 PM

#2031

riddle777

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 708

From Nate:

"As the conventional wisdom — and the Upshot’s cool model — now swings slightly back toward Jones again, it’s worth remembering that making extrapolations based on partial returns is a lot harder in a state like Alabama where we aren’t used to having competitive elections. That why models like the Upshot’s have wide confidence intervals (conveying a lot of uncertainty) and why you should be cautious about getting too far ahead of the story."

12-12-2017 , 10:25 PM

#2032

farmslicer7

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 2,066

Hillary won 280k to 80k in Montgomery

12-12-2017 , 10:26 PM

#2033

Costanza

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,353

I hope the Clyde May's Alabama Style Whiskey I'm drinking is celebratory rather than sorrow-drowning.

12-12-2017 , 10:26 PM

#2034

bigt2k4

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 15,296

Mobile hasn't reported at all and voter turnout should be higher than expected based on all the other counties. Unaccounted for good news

12-12-2017 , 10:26 PM

#2035

Klingbard

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,103

like partial Madison county looks really good for Jones, if NYT has drilled down to precinct level then i'd be more certain. if they are only using county returns, who can say really say

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2036

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,508

holy **** Jones is winning Lauderdale by 18 with 50% in

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2037

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 21,015

Gofgo jones.

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2038

ANONN123

Guest

Posts: n/a

+8 Jones?!?!

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2039

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Montgomery slacking in counting. Jefferson providing a bit of a boost.

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2040

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,978

EIGHT POINT TWO NO ****ING WAY

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2041

WichitaDM

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,766

Jones +8.2, 90% chance of winning NYT. LFG!!!

12-12-2017 , 10:27 PM

#2042

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

Another NYT surge for Jones, estimating +6.5.

Last edited by LKJ; 12-12-2017 at 10:28 PM. Reason: my data is old, maybe

12-12-2017 , 10:28 PM

#2043

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 21,015

Nobody beats jones

12-12-2017 , 10:28 PM

#2044

will1530

self-banned

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,773

85% Jones

12-12-2017 , 10:28 PM

#2045

425kid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 10,346

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperUberBob

Is this a legit turnout problem or a model problem? Seems too big of an error to be a legit turnout issue

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940768238614478849

Wasserman is confirming this is legit. Jones areas coming in at around 75% of 2016 turnout, Moore areas at 55-60%