Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington) - Page 84 - Politics and Economics

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Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

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12-12-2017 , 10:34 PM

#2076

Wooders0n

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Dont really get the raw vote count derping. Still means ~ nothing.

12-12-2017 , 10:34 PM

#2077

bobman0330

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,234

Statistics nerds:

Is there some kind of statistical tool that can take a time series of predictions of the same event and tell you whether the underlying model is fos or not? Asking for a newspaper friend.

12-12-2017 , 10:34 PM

#2078

JordanIB

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 13,458

Jones .63 PI

12-12-2017 , 10:34 PM

#2079

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

PI market crashed a while ago, prices are like 15 minutes behind

I was swing trading Jones, bought him around 17c and sold at 35-40c twice, but then couldn't get back in cause market is ded

12-12-2017 , 10:35 PM

#2080

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by zikzak

Red counties are mostly in, blue counties still bigly outstanding.

Oh yeah.

12-12-2017 , 10:35 PM

#2081

LFS

emo gaylord

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 21,863

Quote:

Originally Posted by Costanza

Alabama Style Whiskey

Aged 14 years?

12-12-2017 , 10:35 PM

#2082

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Need Jefferson, Mobile, and Montgomery to come through big for the win!!

12-12-2017 , 10:35 PM

#2083

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Looking good boys.

12-12-2017 , 10:35 PM

#2084

WichitaDM

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,766

52k down with over 600k votes counted. How many total votes are we expecting? Looks like the presidential election had 2m votes but surely this will be lower turnout than that right?

12-12-2017 , 10:35 PM

#2085

bigt2k4

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 15,296

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeti

jones -2000 on betfair
jones pickem on predictit

politics betting never disappoints

Is there live betting that people can make a fortune on or is predict it really hard to make bets on/ small limits?

12-12-2017 , 10:36 PM

#2086

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,730

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeti

jones -2000 on betfair
jones pickem on predictit

politics betting never disappoints

Only if you have access to UK books.

12-12-2017 , 10:36 PM

#2087

Yeti

Abominable

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,209

last november my plane took off with the NYT dial pointed at 80% hillary. this is lolstralia so no wifi on the plane. when i landed, i pressed refresh and watched the dial move all the way to 95% trump. that was pretty horrifying!

12-12-2017 , 10:36 PM

#2088

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Corey Booker will never be POTUS.

12-12-2017 , 10:36 PM

#2089

dth123451

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

Get ****ed, Pfizer Booker

12-12-2017 , 10:36 PM

#2090

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,960

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nonfiction

PI market crashed a while ago, prices are like 15 minutes behind

I was swing trading Jones, bought him around 17c and sold at 35-40c twice, but then couldn't get back in cause market is ded

Pretty bad their software is crashing for a senate race.

12-12-2017 , 10:37 PM

#2091

riddle777

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 708

Quote:

Originally Posted by LFS

Aged 14 years?

Niiiiiiceeeee.

12-12-2017 , 10:37 PM

#2092

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

I still don't think I've ever seen a raw vote reversal when the vote is in at >60% and Moore is winning by 8%.

12-12-2017 , 10:37 PM

#2093

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeti

You passed through the dimensional portal.

12-12-2017 , 10:37 PM

#2094

Yeti

Abominable

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,209

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigt2k4

Is there live betting that people can make a fortune on or is predict it really hard to make bets on/ small limits?

it's pretty small for this but you could easily get a few thousand down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Only if you have access to UK books.

you'd want access to predict it for this i assume. but yeah, it's very unlikely (impossible?) someone could have access to both of those, so no arb opportunities.

12-12-2017 , 10:37 PM

#2095

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

How is Moore up by 47k votes and predictit has him at 44 cents? Lol.

12-12-2017 , 10:37 PM

#2096

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Think news stations hold back on some votes to add a bit of suspense to the race?

12-12-2017 , 10:38 PM

#2097

Biesterfield

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 8,042

NYT has more votes for Moore and less for Jones than CNN has right now and they are still at Jones 66%.

12-12-2017 , 10:38 PM

#2098

Bdidd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,103

Hannity sounds defeated and already blaming MITCH!!!

12-12-2017 , 10:38 PM

#2099

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

In before #actually no one voted in Birmingham, whatta coincidence.

12-12-2017 , 10:38 PM

#2100

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

No, that tracker is clearly based on a stupid ****ing model.

Edit; I suppose it's possible Jones will pull this out, but it's going to be by winning by like .1 percent if he does, after a recount.

I'll take Jones -0.1 if you want in the next few minutes

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