lol. that is a good advice.

Nunes is leagues better than Phan though and Siver did beat him. He also beat Matt Wiman, and George Sotiropolous among others. Phan's best win is Cole Miller who was coming off a loss to Siler and his next best win is Leonard Garcia who was arguably on a 0-9 stretch if bad judging was taken into account

Im not saying Phan is a can, but he isnt good enough to beat anyone at the mid level of the UFC or above, and I think Siver is an upper mid level FW, he was a legit mid level LW who was just too small for Cerrone and the big guys in the division and he isnt so huge that the cut will kill him or anything.

The more I think about this the more I like Siver, and betting Phan at worse than +200 would be a really bad idea imo. Of course if Phan is +400 it's another story, but I definitely don't see Phan winning over a third of the time, it's probably more like a quarter.

When the line opens we can book it juice free if you like as that's roughly the bet size I want to place on Siver assuming he's in the -200 to -250 region (ill go small at closer to -280 or so, or much bigger if he's better than -170ish)

You're right his record is worse overall fighting outside Europe slightly but thats more because he's faced top level guys outside Europe, and his GSot and Wiman wins were in Aus and US respectively.

You're right he's got a worse record outside Europe fwiw but his Gsot and wiman wins were both with extensive travel so it's more a product of his opponents. I watched the Siver fight live and scored it the same way as the judges fwiw despite the controversy there. Wiman is better than he's given credit for too and despite his 2 fight losing streak Gsot is 7-2 in the UFC or so with a win over Lauzon isnt he plus siver beat him in front of a home crowd in aus?

Of his 8 opponents id rank higher than Phan clearly, he's 4-4 (vs Fisher pre-decline, GSot, Nunes, Wiman for wins and Maynard, Guillard, Cerrone, Pearson for losses)

Considering Siver is 4-4 against that group of fighters and Phan would be ranked 9/9 probably of the bunch (8/9 currently due to Fisher's decline but they fought before Fisher got past his prime) Phan certainly isn't a good bet until well past +200 imo and probably not until +350ish or maybe even more slightly would I take him over Siver (I'd handicap it at maybe -320 Siver juice free after a bit more analysis, although I do think it'll be competitive and usually go to decision, I think Siver is better everywhere)

Bendo by unanimous dec at -215, opened today. Pretty sweet.

Do you mean +215? That's worse than the normal line.

I did in fact mean +215, thank you for pointing that out.

Henderson by decision has been floating around evens, currently at +125, I expect the +215 to get bet down to at least +160.

Sorry if you had already discussed, but did you end up going HEADZUP4ROLLZ on Condit?

Lol, I guess you remember my big bet on Condit vs GSP in 2011. I already have 4.5g+ lockup, going to put another 1g on it. At fight time I likely have 5.5g total. I was blinded by desperation and for Condit love. Basically I struggle to make $$$ playing poker online, so I have my whole bankroll on Condit. If I win I have a nice bankroll to play with and if I lose than back to 9 to 5 after 6yr away from workforce.
I was very angry that the fight was call off, but now in hindsight, thank god it did! Phewwwwwwwwwwwww.

I end up putting 3.5g on Condit vs Diaz @1.75, that win got me a nice starting bankroll. Mma betting when well for me 1st year, now my bankroll sit at 21g. My bankroll peak at 24g too but I lost 6g in Vietnam due to blindly pick fights since I don't have my mma resource and reliable internet connection for 5 months. Now, I am more conservative, only betting $500 to $1000 for my lock picks, not 2g-3g like before. I make about a dozen 2.5g+ bet in 1 fight and it is not good for my heart. I lost about $400 on Condit vs GSP but still made $1200 on the whole card, thanks to the lucky Carmont split decision. I have $1100 on Carmont too, what a terrible bet that was.

Ok you talk me out of it, I was going to bet around $200-$300 but I likely put no more than $100 on Phan.

I though Phan have a good chance to win since this is likely going to decision. The reason I think the judges give it Phan because Phan never back up in all his fight, he constantly moving forward and that could make a huge different in the judges eyes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xACYj...ture=g-all-lik

probz the most pumped ive been to see BJ fight since against pulver! to bad he is going against rory =(

Bendo by decision is back down to -115 while unanimous dec is still at +215. They can't both be correct, at least one of them has to be off. I got 2u in at +215.

Damn ya I'm already on Bendo dec -115, might have to put more on UD, that seems ridiculous.

Megaouts - the line isnt out yet, if Phan is +380 go ahead and i'll join you on that side, but if the line opens Siver -230 Phan +200ish or so I do think it's a bad bet.

Also looking at that Penn in shape video... if he's taking this seriously and doesn't gas inside 2 rounds he can beat Rory. +252 looks pretty amazing there. I'm thinking of a moderate Penn play (maybe 2u or so) and then say 4u or so on Bendo. If Penn is in shape and motivated I think a fair line is evens, obviously if not it's more like +450 for Penn but it's looking like he's taking this seriously he seems to be in shape and I guess he knows if he loses this his legacy is somewhat on the line and he'll be considered to be 'done' as a high level fighter unless he wins it.

Anyone (reputable) able to get that Bendo +215 UD line still? I'm happy to ship on stars or make an equal sized bet on Pinnacle for you if someone wants to book me 100-200 action at that line then ill just add the rest on Bendo straight up incase he gets the finish, I suppose he could tap Diaz if he gets his back after wearing him down etc. but UD is more likely

Man I'm trying not to fall into the trap of believing that BJ is back and in shape...he's let me down as a fan so many times in the past. But +250 is awfully tempting against a guy who gets hit as much as MacDonald.

diaz fight was legitimately close and he had the fitch fight won

i'm just not convinced he's done IF he's motivated and not fighting someone fast like edgar - i dont think he'll ever hold a title again (LW maybe if Edgar stays at FW forever but i doubt he has the inclination to cut)

at evens if forced to pick id take rory but at +250 there has to be value on penn if he's in shape - i mean, id take fitch over rory and that fight was a tie, and penn WAS tooling diaz until he gassed. it all comes down to his conditioning if penn doesn't bring his absolute best gas tank he is going to lose badly but i think that given the fight is a pickem leaning penn if he has an unlimited gas tank, and id say theres a 50% chance he has one, +250 should be marginal value right? idk

i think a fair-ish line is say -200 Rory but we'll know at the 3 minute mark of r2 what the true line is/was and it'll either be way higher or lower depending on penn's conditioning

What site allows to bet on the decision? Or just brick and mortar book?

bestfightodds.com has a props tab where if you click it it next to a fight it shows the prop odds and which books theyre at

Looks like UD has been bet into +135 now so we missed it, oh well i'll just take Bendo straight up probably

bj penn is my favorite fighter and is a big part of the reason i got into watching and betting on mma in the first place.

but before betting, last night i went back and watched rory's last 4 fights.

gotta say i'm more than a little scared. Rogan perhaps said it best when he said that rory doesnt just have the potential of gsp, he probably has MORE potential, and i think we're going to see the most focused, mature, and ready rory we've seen yet on dec 8.

i mean, if bj wanted to come back, this is the worst guy to do it against. why couldnt it be a lw fight against guida, the cowboy, or gomi? a fight where he's gonna be the same size as his opponent and a fight he can easily come out of okay? i mean FFS bj was competitive against WWs in the old, old days of mma, while rory could legitimately fight at MW even in 2012 imo. pretty ****ed up matchup if you ask me.
Yeah, BJ looks like he has the best camp he's had in years. But, ****, tristar is one of the best in the world, and he's training with machine trainers and the ****in WW champ who have beaten bj before.

i'm hoping somebody on this forum can talk me into going big on bj, but after all that tape...man i'm starting to wonder if even +300 would be enough to bet a big portion of my roll?

Just listened to a pretty compelling argument about why Diaz is going to beat Nelson (Nelson has problems with fighters who can dictate range etc...).

Don't feel super great about this one. Guess we'll see now.

I do think were going to see the best BJ penn dec 8th, BJ knows if he loses this fight that's it for him.

But like skyy said, rory has so much potential. I think BJ at his best isn't going to give him this fight. Rory is a tough kid that has dominated all his opponents, exept condit (who rory was dominating before the knee) who just gave GSP his best challenge to date.

I think +250 is break-even.

Rewatch that Condit/MacDonald fight and see if you think he "dominated" Condit. On rewatch, I actually thought Condit won the first round.

MacDonald gets hit a lot. BJ Penn is a great puncher with good power. He has a clear edge on the feet here, and he has proven that he is definitely not a free takedown throughout his career.

i havent watched it since last night. but iirc there was a bit of back and forth in rd 1, however macdonald dropped him with a punch in the 1st, and repeatedly took him down almost at will, almost surely enough to win the round.

pretty sure if that ref had not stepping in with less than 10 seconds to go, it was going to be 29-28 rory...tho obv if it went the other way it wouldnt have been the worst judging ever.

Are you referring to Nelson vs Mitrione or Diaz vs Bendo? Can't be too compelling if it doesn't have the fighters fighting the right opponents :P

On that note, Roy Nelson is a snapbet at the -200ish I expect him to open at vs Mitrione. I bet against Mitrione against Morecraft even (was wrong there) then finally got it right against Kongo. Mitrione sucks, he has potential, but as of right now he is a bad HW, and he will not make it through a gatekeeper. Nelson by brutal KO imo.

Mitrione has a helluva chin, actually decent boxing with a long range and is very flexible for his weight. Wouldn't be surprised to see this fight go the distance actually.