Unfortunate I don't either or I would have hit Easton hard at -155 yesterday - he's up to the -200 region now. Money coming on Nijem too, i'm getting good at calling line movement.

Added 2u on Swick at -138, 0.5u on Penn at +250, 0.5u on Gustaffson at -225 (will probably add more if Shogun looks bad at weighins but only got like 12u on Pinn atm due to withdrawing about 60u recently so i'll probably put the lot on the card once the undercard lines drop and then reinvest a bit in Gustaffson mid card if some of the early ones win) 3u on Bendo at -153. Planning to also bet Easton, Means and Nijem if the odds are good, plus parlay those 3 with Bendo and Swick and possibly Jorgensen too.

I have the Albert side of Albert-Jorgensen. That's what I wanted ****** funds for. I got like 0.5u down at 3.2 on Bookmaker but now everything is under 3.00. I guess at this point I'm waiting for Pinny lines to drop and see what they're like.

I like Nijem as well, my bets are Diaz, Gustafsson, MacDonald, Albert, Nijem.

Hope there are going to be Bellator lines up, have a couple bets there too.

Whoops. Almost missed that Means was a bet. I had this whole post written up, I don't have my money on Means yet but I cbf scrapping this post so whatever. I have all the rest of my money on now except for Diaz. Favourites generally shorten on fight day so I'm betting that will happen here.

2-star plays

Gustafsson v Rua: 3u @ 1.478 (BEST BET)
Albert v Jorgensen: 1u @ 3.183

1-star plays

Diaz v Henderson: 1u @ ???
MacDonald v Penn: 2u @ 1.376
Nijem v Proctor: 1u @ 1.56
Means v Trujillo: 2u @ ???

Even though Albert is a 2-star play, I've kept it at 1u because of the long odds.

Nijem barely qualifies as a play, probably the closest to being a non-bet of any bet so far.

I've decided for kicks to start posting "Leans" as well, the idea is that using my criteria I only take bets that are predicted to be 5% ROI and up as there's a huge margin of error in reality. I'm going to post as "Leans" those that are predicted between 0% and 5% ROI, not good enough for me to bet but if you're sitting on the fence for a bet maybe it'll convince you to bet, and who doesn't love gambling?

Leans

Stephens v Edwards
Easton v Assuncao

Ok you've talked me out of any significant play on Jorgensen I think. I strongly disagree on Bendo/Diaz though. Bendo is not a dumb fighter and he will absolutely destroy Diaz with competent gameplanning. Yes, he's going to give you the middle finger. Take him down anyway and win. Not to mention judges love Bendo for some reason (Edgar 2 was either 49-46 or 48-47 Edgar and he retained anyway etc)

Adding 2u on Nijem, 0.5u on Stephens, 0.5u on Easton

Will parlay some random 3-4 fighter combinations of Jorgensen/Means/Siver/Easton/Stephens/Nijem/Bendo/Swick as well for a couple units total as well probably.

Man. Just watching MacDonald v Mills from UFC 145 on TV now. Just awesome GnP technique from MacDonald. Happy to have money on him.

LOL at the size of Jon Jones compared to Rashad Evans. How is this supposed to be a fair fight?

For some reasons judges favor Bendo? What, he had one close decision go to him and that is Bendo Edgar 2. That's the only fight u can mention robbery. The first fight, while it was close, Hendo won it.

We're not talking about Garcia here...

True, but he's 2/2 in close decisions (the one he won narrowly being against a champion and the one he lost being as champion)

Hey whatever my money's on him now, so i'm a temporary Bendo fan which is easy enough considering he's fighting a punk Diaz.

I'm going to end up with no play on Cruickshank/Martinez probably and 9/10 of the favs on the rest of the card with the only dog being Penn, because i'm stupid enough to believe in 'motivated BJ Penn' but mostly because it's at +250 and any top tier fighter like BJ Penn should be value there if he's in shape which he appears to be unless he's fighting a top 10 p4p guy which Rory Mac is not.

To sum it up. 2nd fight was close enough that u can call it a robbery depending on how u score certain things. 1st fight was not that close that u can call it a robbery bc there weren't really any room for scoring it for edgar imo.

The second fight was a clear and decisive victory from Edgar. I missed a couple rounds of the first fight and haven't rewatched it because it makes me sad as an Edgar fan, but from what I heard Edgar won 2 rounds and some said 3. In the second fight, Edgar clearly won 3 rounds and imo pretty clearly won four.

Oh well, it'll make it even more exciting when he wins Aldo's belt and comes back to get his LW title back in a superfight somewhere down the line.

I think Edgar is 2-0 against Henderson. So ya judges love that dude in my eyes lol...

Was thinking of throwing Means in a parlay but I didn't because I know nothing bout his opponent.

All I know about his opponent from memory is he's a blackzilian camp guy, 4 fight win streak but that means he was 5-4 outside the UFC before his win streak so he cant be that amazing

Did whoever wanted that Siver/Phan bet still want the bet juice-free etc?

***** hell, rory looks like a serial killer, that dude is str8 ****ed up. And when they did like a stare off, he looks to be so much bigger than Bj Penn, I think we might be witness to a Bj Penn vs GSP 2 beatdown, just much worse. Like I don't see how BJ Penn is going to stop his takedowns, Rory already looks like he could be a middleweight and Bj Penn is a Lightweight, I mean they could be 2 guys fight in 2 weightclasses away from each other.

I can see why people don't like Nick, but Nate has been nothing but a class act in the UFC. He might try to get into his opponents heads with occasion **** talk, but a ton of fighters do that.. He gets a lot of unwarranted hate because he is Nicks brother and has the last name Diaz.

That being said, Nate via sub.

He flips off his opponents mid fight. Not all class. Sure, he sells tickets and I can respect that, but I still cheer against the Diaz brothers anyway, because I like seeing punks like them get beaten down. Bendo did rob my fav former-LW in Edgar but he seems like a class act if a bit arrogant other than that.

I really, really hope Nick Diaz gets to GSP eventually so that I can cheer for GSP in a fight instead of against him. Could be the fight GSP breaks his decision streak on.

Haha, this Sherdog writeup guy is confirmed mad about Bendo v Edgar 2:

Dude, just come out and say it was a massive joke directly.

Yeah, when Diaz snaps his arm

What's with all the hate?!

Hey guys. I have posted in here a couple times and while this isnt MMA betting info, I figured you guys would want to know about this.

I know this is gonna sound crazy guys but just listen to me. My Dad is a hedge fund manager in Hong Kong and was asked to run a hedge fund by a Filipino businessman who is working with Bob Arum and trying to set up Pacman/Mayweather in Macau. So my dad is running a $50 million hedge fund for this guy.

Well Pacman needs to win decisively so that they can make the Mayweather fight. So this Filipino businessman tells my dad that the Pacman/Marquez fight is already fixed and that Pacman is gonna win by KO in under 10 rounds. Supposedly Marquez is getting a couple millions dollars to take a dive and this will be his last big fight. So I am going to put a substantial amount of money on Pacman by KO/TKO which is paying +285. So put some dough on this because the fight is fixed and we know which way its gonna go.

Lose badly to Condit, walking forward flipping him off while eating leg kicks and punches. Lose decision after being thoroughly unstruck. Whine about his gameplan while his fans run around screaming '1 2 and 5'.

Nick Diaz pisses me off. Nate Diaz is just a byproduct of my Nick Diaz hate because he fights the same way and while flipping some opponents off I wouldn't mind, when they do it to some of my favourite fighters I want to see their faces get smashed in a bit. So hopefully Bendo smashes Diaz's face in a bit, and then GSP can do the same to Nick. Neither GSP not Bendo are among my favourite fighters, but they'll get it done.

Mhmmmmm...

Was gonna comment 1,2,5 then you mentioned that lol.

Fair enough though nick obvs deserves some of his hate but do think Nate gets to much of the nick hate.

Anyone who thinks Nick Diaz beat Carlos Condit is simply incompetent at scoring fights. It would take some really, really, really bad judging to score that fight for Diaz. You can make a case for 49-46 or 48-47 Condit. That's all. It's on the same level of stupid as the people who think Faber beat Cruz at 132.

lol it ain't as bad as Faber/Cruz. But Condit def won.

Added Swick/Brown doesn't go distance -185.

I'm on some fairly heavy chalk this card, this could be pretty bad for me.