I would. I'll def take inside distance if I can get it at better than -200 or maybe even more

Nelson's last 8 wins have all been by KO/TKO

I'm with this. But I expect Nelson to win either way.

Condit was never dropped by any MacDonald strikes that I can recall.

Sorry meant Diaz v Henderson.

Oh man...Pettis opened +110 against Cerrone! Please please please let that line hold til it drops on 5d...

Picks for Bellator 82:

3-star plays

Sarnavskiy v Hervey: 4u @ 1.18 (BEST BET)

2-star plays

None.

1-star plays

Rickels v Fischer: 2u @ 1.331
Koreshkov v Good: 1u @ 1.946
Hose v Marshall: 1u @ 1.965

Normally I restrict my betting to between 1u and 3u, but with a 3-star play and the odds being so short I decided to bump it up another notch.

ChrisV, I've seen you reference Tapology before, how much stock do you put into the voting over there? I ask because right now 87% of the Tapology crew has picked Doug Marshall to beat Hose, Marshall can be had at evens on a few sites, yet you're betting Hose.
Just curious, thanks.

In general it's better to bet against public leans than with them in sportsbetting, since if books are taking a position different to the public they're generally pretty sure of what they're doing. So I'm happy if the books like Hose more than the public does.

That said, I imported the Tapology predictions history into my database and couldn't find any trends. If I massaged the data I could make it look like it was better to bet against predictions than with them, but it wasn't very convincing. In a real trend I'd expect the predictions that were most different to the odds to be the bets that were most +EV, but that was definitely not the case.

The problem I think is that in a sport like NFL, where some teams are favored by the public (Giants, Packers, Cowboys among others) people always know a lot about their opponents in the game. They just favor the big teams either because they're a fan or because those teams are discussed more often on TV and thus more salient. I think a lot of the time when there's a big discrepancy between Tapology and the odds, it's because a lot of the guys voting have straight up never heard of one of the fighters. If people are that ignorant of the fight they're probably not going to bet on it, but when they have to submit a pick for Tapology they're like "well I've heard of that guy, I'll pick him". I tend to be more likely to bet on less known, up and coming fighters so my bets will be against Tapology predictions more often than not.

Cool, makes sense, thanks for the thorough reply man.

Oh wow. Snap bet Pettis. Cerrone has the fight IQ of a doorknob and Pettis will only lose to guys that lay and pray him and given Cerrone decided he is a boxer against Nate Diaz, I doubt he'll gameplan effectively. This could actually be Maynard's chance to hodl the title, Pettis beats Bendo (maybe), Maynard beats Pettis... then Frankie Edgar as the FW champ gets to challenge Maynard to a rubber match superfight for the LW title somewhere down the line? Not often a 4th fight is warranted but given they're 1-1-1, it could sell if they're both champions at the time in say early 2014

Still +105 on ******

If anyone has funds there they want to trade for pinnacle i'd def like 200-400 on Pettis at that price. Might even deposit myself, ****** is reputable isnt it?

I can't see Pettis not closing at at least -140 here

I know, I can't see money not pouring in on Pettis but hey maybe I'm way off. I mean I honestly expected him to open like -160 here.

I guess Pettis fight seen most by casuals is him getting LNP'd by Guida and Cerrone has more wins in the UFC and they have 1 loss each.

Still, I expected Pettis -140 or so and think it will get there eventually

Anyone got any codes for ****** better than what is publicly available? Thinking i'll put some $ on for the Pettis line probably and then just roll it over slowly on any lines that are randomly better than Pinn there.

Wtf mo how can you think Condit won that first round? I watched the fight last week and Rory dominated the first 2 rounds easily.

****** is reputable yeah. I'd bet it for you but I'm temporarily busto there and can't move funds around really.

Database favours Pettis too FWIW.

Hopefully 2.00 on Bookmaker holds till tomorrow when my Bellator bets free up (assuming I don't lose them all)

Been betting on Koreshkov since he was in the + range, but now it seems to go back up every time I make a play on him. Not sure what to think, prob should stop betting since I always run so bad on Bellator, and already have a lot on him. Lyman's one of my favorite fighters too, but I think Koreshkov's striking is another level, but I can see Lyman going for clinches/holding against the fence and edging out a decision (a split one, since that's the only type of dec we see in bellator). Too bad they don't put up round betting for these, cause I'd be big on the o2.5.

Yeah I missed the boat on that one, all my others shortened tho.

Let's go Sarnavskiy

Man, how did he not get a tap there lol

Hosed.

Win or lose, Rickles has some horrible fight iq.

Fischer - Rickels is going to annoy me cause I'd give the third round to Rickels. He was in closed guard most of the round but was doing damage and Fischer was doing zero damage. But the loljudges are going to give it to Fischer probably because HURRR RICKELS WAS ON HIS BACK HERP DERP.

Oh sweet. One 30-27 even lol.

Nope, they got it right. I understand the 30-27 too, both first and third were close.

I missed the first, everyone online had it for Fischer that I saw tho.

Do you mean sherdog? Those guys are awful. Fischer was doing better for most of the round but Rickles reversed a takedown with 40 secs or so left, and did the most damage in that round with a few elbows after. It was close.